The Roster Check Before the Storm

In Commentary And Analysis, Major League Baseball, Minor Leagues, Transactions by Rice Cube96 Comments

The Cubs did make their transactions prior to the nontender deadline, and the 40-man roster is at 37 for the moment:

I just downloaded the image from @Cubs because who the hell knows if Twitter will die now?

As we said in prior posts and in the latest Dreamcast, there were some very obvious nontender candidates, and it wasn’t too surprising to see the three names on the announcement. As stated in Bastian’s rundown, Vizcaíno was on the restricted list and probably hates baseball now so we will see if the Cubs actually try to keep him on a cheap deal or let him go. Ortega at this point, if the Cubs know what’s good for them, is extraneous at best if they find some money in the couch cushions and actually upgrade the team. Brailyn Marquez has been broken for a while which is very unfortunate given the potential. I did forget that most of the other names who weren’t on the announcement were automatic renewal players, so there was no reason at this time for the Cubs to just let them go just yet. The Winter Meetings are during the first full week of December so barring some surprises, we likely won’t see any major deals until then, with certain names we’ve mentioned before expendable to fit the new signings on the roster. There is also time to potentially pass some guys through waivers and outright them off the roster to grab some extra space before the Rule 5 Draft, just in case.

Bubble Guys to Toss For More Space (If Needed)

I think of the remaining players, these are the ones that would be taken off the roster for upgrades but only when it comes necessary at this point:

  • Mark Leiter Jr
  • Manuel Rodriguez
  • Zach McKinstry (now that they have the redundant guys that were claimed/traded for)
  • Alfonso Rivas

Keeping in mind I’m pretty sure they can’t throw a guy onto the 60-day injured list until just before Opening Day, so the rest that I haven’t mentioned probably have to be outrighted.

Nontendered Players of Interest From Around the League

MLBTR did a good job of tallying up all the nontendered players from the AL and NL, so we’ll use those as a jumping point for some depth adds should their former teams not bother re-signing them:

From the NL list:

  • Jeff Hoffman – a former first round pick, he was actually DFA earlier so this isn’t a non-tender, just means he is potentially available; he was ok for the Reds this past season and could be an interesting bullpen pickup for the Pitch Lab
  • Jackson Stephens – nontendered by Atlanta, he’s a bit older but for whatever reason I just thought he did fairly well and so this was a tad surprising but I guess they needed the space
  • Jorge Alfaro – could probably use catching depth that isn’t PJ Higgins
  • Garrett Hampson – he can’t hit for shit, but the dude is fast and if rosters are limited to 13 position players, maybe have a guy who can back up the infield positions as well as steal a base or two?
  • Dominic Smith – he almost got some Brian Roberts level hype from certain corners of the Cubs blogosphere but he’s probably redundant given all the outfielders already locked into the roster, but he is a lefty bat with some power, at least once upon a time…
  • Cody Bellinger – this is the one everyone seems to be salivating over, we all know he’s a former MVP with lots of power if he ever figures out how to make contact again, plus he can play center field more than adequately, plus the lefty bat, so there’s a fit there if the Cubs somehow outbid every other team for a guy who the Dodgers didn’t want to pay

From the AL list:

  • Adam Engel – the former White Sox is considered a good defensive player so might work as a glove first guy on the bench, but that really depends on how many upgrades the Cubs get otherwise
  • Ryan Yarbrough – kind of meh for the Rays before they nontendered him this season, but he’s a lefty and maybe Pitch Lab can fix him?

Rule 5 Draft Preview

We saw the Cubs protect four of their top prospects in the previous check-in, but like most of MLB, they couldn’t protect everyone. The MLB.com article does a good job tallying up who was protected and who was left exposed, and there are a lot of names on the lists I simply do not know. Obviously they have at least three spots to play with, so if you guys want to take a crack at who to prioritize, that might be fun. Probably means I have to learn these prospects better whenever I have more time again.

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Comments

  1. dmick89

    My last understanding of the DL (now IL apparently) was that it doesn’t exist at some date shortly after the World Series ends. At that point all players come off the IL. I assume that rule is unchanged.

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  2. Perkins

    I’d be okay with Bellinger as long as they’re not counting on the (long shot) upside for offense. He’s probably just a one year stopgap until Canario or Crow-Armstrong is ready, and I’m sure he wants a short contract to try to rebuild his value. Seems like the incentives are aligned on both sides.

    Again, I assume he’s going to suck, but Kiermaier is older and also can’t hit for shit.

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  3. Author
    Rice Cube

    Perkins,

    I agree with the stopgap philosophy here because as much as we like him, you can’t let Morel be your everyday CF, and at least the two mentioned options can catch the ball more often than not even if they can’t hit

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  4. berselius

    Rice Cube,

    Kiermayer is exactly the kind of guy the FO from 4 years ago would have targeted – I always mixed him up with Souza in my head since the stat systems always loved both of them (dying laughing). We’ll see how much Ivy has evolved in the time since I guess.

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  5. dmick89

    So how much is Bellinger probably going to cost? I was thinking $15-17 million when I said no thanks. I know I haven’t paid any attention to baseball and the value of the win always goes up. Anyone know what it’s estimated to be these days?

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  6. Author
    Rice Cube

    dmick89,

    He got $17MM last season and was projected for $18MM in arb this coming season. I think most of this has to do with us and Jed Hoyer recognizing that all the internal CF options either suck or are too far away, so naturally the hivemind goes to Bellinger or Kiermaier. I don’t much know how much they can sign him for, I’m guessing base is $10MM with incentives getting him closer to $18MM in a sort of Fowler-like buyout/deferral scheme depending on how creative they want to get.

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  7. andcounting

    Fair warning, I’m going to be extremely impatient with the handling of every single Cubs prospect. Start PCA in center opening day and don’t look back.

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  8. andcounting

    Oh, and I did finally decide to abandon Twitter. Just too much of an ethical dilemma to patronize any Musk business at this point.

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  9. andcounting

    Seriously, I’ve signed up for a couple of the waitlist options (one is called Post, I can’t remember the other) but I doubt I’ll invest nearly as much time anywhere the way I did on Twitter.

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  10. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    That’s kind of a hilarious story. “Player would prefer not to have to move if he’s not getting a raise.” I’m assuming that applies to the vast majority of players.

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  11. Author
    Rice Cube

    My best guess is that nothing imminent is going to happen before Thanksgiving short of guys like Aaron Judge re-signing with their former clubs. There is a week after Thanksgiving before the Winter Meetings where stuff could happen though, and the biggest Cubs-centric items short of them buying all the non-Judge free agents is extending Happ and/or Nico and/or others. I doubt it’ll happen by or during Thanksgiving though lest front office folks and agents get doubly divorced.

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  12. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    If the Cubs don’t sign someone significant by thanksgiving I don’t think we can expect an aggressive offseason. They’re either setting the pace or they’re reacting to what everyone else does. If they’re reacting, they’re going to be on the second or third tier of teams that are actually trying to improve.

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  13. dmick89

    andcounting,

    I think that’s probably a little too early, isn’t it? Didn’t they sign Heyward around the middle of December, shortly after the winter meetings? When have the most valuable free agents signed the last couple years? Prior to the winter meetings seems early to me unless they’re resigning with their current team.

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  14. Author
    Rice Cube

    dmick89,

    Yeah right now everyone’s just having Zoom meetings and some initial in-person visits, and I think they just needed the dust to settle from the roster setup first. I’d expect the first major signings the week prior to the Winter Meetings but if someone jumps the Thanksgiving holiday I feel like that should be considered unusual.

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  15. andcounting

    dmick89,

    I know Schilling famously signed once on thanksgiving and I *believe* that’s when the Cubs got Lester.

    It IS early, but it’s not too early. I know they can sign people later and they’ve made meaningful signings pretty late in the offseason (Yu Darvish comes to mind). But this is a big FA crop this year, and if they’re just waiting it out to make sure they don’t overspend or commit too long, they’re going to get burned. This soft collusion of every team playing it coy to make the whole FA field sweat it out is great for keeping prices low, but it’s terrible for getting a big haul. The Cubs could significantly improve if they break from the pack and just commit to getting the guys they want. I just think if they wait until the other teams start to negotiate more heavily they’re conceding the FA race.

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  16. andcounting

    andcounting,

    Double fact check: Schilling was not a free agent, Theo just had to convince him to accept a trade to Boston, which they pulled off the day after thanksgiving.

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  17. andcounting

    Oh, and just to throw this out there…

    It’s so interesting how people refer to literally any spending in the US federal government, a $6.27 trillion budget, as “MY tax dollars,” but when the owners of a team to which people pay ticket prices, broadcasting subscriptions, merch money, and hours upon hours of advertising attention, they say things like, “Well, it’s not my money.”

    The fuck it’s not. If it weren’t for the money these billionaires collect because of our interest, involvement, and direct spending, they wouldn’t spend a dime on a single contract. If they weren’t getting more money from us than they spend on the teams we love, they’d sell immediately. It is our money, and we’re fools if we pretend they’re paying players out of their own largesse.

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  18. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    The other idea behind waiting for most of these clubs is to at least find out what the Mets are willing to do and then decide whether it is worthwhile to outbid or not. Mets owner is still crazy rich and also crazy even while the franchise is so dysfunctional

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  19. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I mean, ideally the Cubs would just wine and dine and get the guy, but unfortunately those other teams do have more money and the only thing really preventing them from going nuts is that stupid luxury tax. The rumor mill saying the Mets are in on everyone is kind of lame.

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  20. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I don’t know this for sure (only through cursory Googling and “gut” feel) but I think most valuations have the Yankees and Dodgers worth more than the Cubs, and the Mets owner appears to be worth five times more than the Ricketts family, so from a numbers standpoint, I’d say they have more money. The Cubs’ only numerical advantage at this time is that all three of those teams are over the luxury tax threshold and may want to reset their penalties. The intangible advantages are that, well, they’re the Cubs and Wrigley Field is cool?

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  21. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Ok, great, that’s a really helpful framework for looking at team spending. The question I would have within that framework is, have any of those teams spent more than the Ricketts would be capable of spending, or is it just a matter of willingness?

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  22. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I think historically, and even recently, the three teams listed have spent extremely stupid money on their players, yes (dying laughing)

    The Yankees were famous for their mad contracts to A-Rod and CC and Mark Teixiera, the Dodgers did extend Mookie Betts to a well-deserved contract that was basically twice as much as they spent on Jason Heyward, and the Mets did similar with Francisco Lindor. The Heyward contract as far as I can tell remains the most the Cubs have ever spent on one player overall.

    The willingness again is tempered by the stupid luxury tax, so I guess we will have to take a wait and see approach #ShrugEmoji

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  23. Author
    Rice Cube

    Rice Cube,

    So while I’m hoping the Cubs will set themselves up to be the Marquee destination ( #pun), if the other teams decide to throw caution to the wind, Chicago probably has no chance to compete financially, but I would hope to be wrong.

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  24. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I think there are two things at work here:

    1. Steve Cohen seems insane when throwing money around and doesn’t seem to care that the Mets might operate at a loss.
    2. Ricketts kids are still beholden to Papa Ricketts’ money whims since it’s not technically their money.

    I’d love for them to just go nuts but you can view Marquee’s (lack of) success and other perceived business failures as either an incentive or another obstacle to them spending enough to be competitive for the big names.

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  25. andcounting

    I’m not sure why the Mets link seems to go behind a paywall all of a sudden, but the numbers are significantly lower.

    If you can see the Cubs numbers, you can tell they’re not in danger of encroaching on team revenues. Obviously they have more expenses than that, but this also ignores the broadcasting revenue streams. Every MLB team gets $60 million from the league’s national broadcasting deals and AT LEAST $40 million from local agreements. (For the Cubs and Marquee it’s $90 million.)

    For broadcast rights alone, the Cubs have $$150 million they could spend on players before selling a single ticket. Then they bring in another $350-$450 million.

    They have plenty of money.

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  26. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Cohen’s spending is crazy only through the lens of needing to amplify current profits as a bottom line. The Ricketts collect their original purchase investment every year and a half. That shit is fucking crazy.

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  27. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    Obviously we want them to actually add as they claimed in various letters/interviews/conferences/whatever, so here’s hoping they have really good video presentations being sent to agents at this time!

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  28. andcounting

    Here’s another way to look at it:

    Cohen has Five-infinity dollars. The Ricketts have two-infinity dollars. The Cubs have incoming revenue of 1 infinity dollars every 2. years, and the Mets have 1 infinity dollars coming in every 3 years.

    Cohen spends 1/4 infinity dollars on players every year. The Ricketts spend 1/6 infinity dollars every year on players and tell us they can’t afford any more than that.

    Ok.

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  29. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    In that sense it is probably good that there is a luxury tax with harsh penalties because it gives the Cubs an edge for the near term in saying “yeah we’ll pay you” and actually be able to do it without losing too much in tax payments

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  30. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I feel like this could be a blog topic before the holiday that we can keep talking through until action ramps up again. Either they’ll spend to our satisfaction, or they won’t, and there will certainly be interest resulting from both possibilities (dying laughing)

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  31. Author
    Rice Cube

    I recognize that AC is basically saying what I said a few weeks ago ( –> http://www.obstructedview.net/do-something/ ) but I also think there is a point where even stupid money gets way more stupid than should be tolerable, even if the Cubs outspent the Mets in this hypothetical, they’d need to outcompete the Yankees and Dodgers. But the point being made is that the Cubs should have money, and they should definitely spend it.

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  32. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Yeah, I mean, it’s an existential sociological topic that will never go away. And like Oliver said, he’ll still watch the World Cup even though it’s an atrocity. I’m still watching this team even though the owners are fascist con artists.

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  33. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    Due to philosophical and accessibility reasons, I likely will not watch any of the games live but maybe I’ll check out a highlight or two and try to watch the replay of the USA’s elimination game and the Cup final

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  34. Author
    Rice Cube

    They just announced this cycle’s HOF ballot. I’m not gonna do a better job than Jaffe on this HOF rundown so I won’t even bother. What I will do is do an asterisk for guys who I think will get at least one mercy vote, and then guys who will probably stay on the ballot with the 5% with a double asterisk.

    – Bobby Abreu **
    – Bronson Arroyo
    – Carlos Beltran ** (maybe gets dinged for being an Astros cheater)
    – Mark Buehrle **
    – Matt Cain *
    – RA Dickey
    – Jacoby Ellsbury
    – Andre Ethier
    – JJ Hardy
    – Todd Helton **
    – Torii Hunter *
    – Andruw Jones **
    – Jeff Kent ** (last year, so he’ll drop off even if he gets the %)
    – John Lackey
    – Mike Napoli
    – Jhonny Peralta
    – Andy Pettitte **
    – Manny Ramirez **
    – Alex Rodriguez **
    – Francisco Rodriguez
    – Scott Rolen **
    – Jimmy Rollins *
    – Gary Sheffield **
    – Huston Street
    – Omar Vizquel **
    – Billy Wagner **
    – Jered Weaver
    – Jayson Werth

    I think the one with the most reasonable chance to get in on this ballot is Rolen but who even knows anymore, voters are silly.

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  35. berselius

    Rice Cube:
    andcounting,

    Due to philosophical and accessibility reasons, I likely will not watch any of the games live but maybe I’ll check out a highlight or two and try to watch the replay of the USA’s elimination game and the Cup final

    Would have been nice if US Soccer had gotten its bribe numbers up enough to ensure that the USMNT games weren’t midday on weekdays (dying laughing).

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  36. berselius

    andcounting:
    Here’s another way to look at it:

    Cohen has Five-infinity dollars. The Ricketts have two-infinity dollars. The Cubs have incoming revenue of 1 infinity dollars every 2. years, and the Mets have 1 infinity dollars coming in every 3 years.

    Cohen spends 1/4 infinity dollars on players every year. The Ricketts spend 1/6 infinity dollars every year on players and tell us they can’t afford any more than that.

    Ok.

    I still think the pre-Cohen, “the Mets can’t spend because their owners had a lot of money in a Ponzi scheme” was one of the most hilarious side-stories in sports. It would be even funnier if we find out that Cohen had a ton of money in FTX (dying laughing).

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  37. Author
    Rice Cube

    berselius,

    Besides the obvious missed opportunity with bribery, it’s weird how the US can’t generate a world class soccer team to seriously compete with the usual suspects of top teams, I guess the Americans can’t be good at everything, he said without a hint of irony

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  38. andcounting

    berselius,

    The really strange part is how common it is for American kids to play soccer at some point. Like, it’s probably the most played organized sport by American kids outside of school. But it just does not catch on at all.

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  39. andcounting

    It’s sort of hilarious that while you’re on the waitlist for Post you get all these emails about how they’re just starting out, have almost no functionality yet, and their employees are working around the clock to try to get it running. It’s the exact working conditions Musk is trying to force on Twitter employees but without the force and likely less than half the pay. I believe they have it open to like 8,000 users so far. It’s just fascinating to me.

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  40. andcounting

    dmick89,

    I’m sure some will. I don’t really know what to expect. I get the feeling it’s going to be a mix of twitter and tumblr, but I could be way off.

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  41. Author
    Rice Cube

    Rice Cube,

    I don’t mean that to say I personally talk to Ken Rosenthal because we’re buddies, he does have a podcast (dying laughing)

    When gating on 100 IP minimum, the first Cub to pop up is Adrian Sampson at 23.4 (I presume seconds between pitches), Steele and Thompson are both over 21, Smyly (if they bring him back) is at 20.7, so they’re going to have to speed it up a bit for the pitch clock in 2023

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  42. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    This really could be a huge variable next year. We really have no idea how much the clock will affect any individual pitcher or how rigidly the umps will enforce it. I also wonder what if anything hitters might do to aggravate pitchers as the time starts winding down. I’d expect some gamesmanship. Should be fun.

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  43. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    Hitters only have something like one timeout call per plate appearance and they are supposed to remain in the box and be ready by a certain time on the clock or else it’s an auto-strike so I feel like gamesmanship will need to be very creative for it to work

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  44. Author
    Rice Cube

    Was re-reading a few things:

    1. Dierkes’ Cubs offseason outlook –> https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/offseason-outlook-chicago-cubs-12.html
    2. MLBTR Cubs-centric chat –> https://www.jotcast.com/chat/cubs-offseason-chat-with-tim-dierkes-14154.html

    A lot of it is conjecture and wild speculation even from the so-called “insiders” so I feel like we just need to wait for Jed Hoyer to pull some rabbits out of the proverbial hat and that’ll tell us how much Papa Ricketts gave the kids to spend.

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  45. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Showing bunt, abbreviated practice swings in the box, adjusting their stance. If it was me, I’d do anything I could get away with to throw their concentration without breaking the rules until they changed the rules to stop me.

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  46. Author
    Rice Cube

    Yeah I think they’ll figure all this stuff out in Spring Training first, my thing is that the 15 seconds with bases empty doesn’t give the batter lots of time to mess around because at some point they’ll need to get ready to swing, I guess we will find out how adaptable the pitchers and catchers really are! It seems like they’re really going to curtail all the potential stall tactics so they definitely have to be more creative than just stepping off, throwing to 1B all the time, etc.

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  47. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Pesky hitters are going to be pesky. But it’s not like it’s a problem that has to get sorted out, it’s just the nature of competition. When they change the rules, teams figure out ways to exploit them. But a hard deadline for delivering a pitch is too major of a construct to predict or manage every nuance of how it will play out in a few weeks or even months.

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