Towards the end of the previous post, in between waiting for the Cubs (and really all of MLB) to show signs of life on the transactional front, AC and I started pondering how batters might mess with pitchers with the new pitch clock rule coming in 2023. As a reminder, in addition to the defensive shift restrictions and the larger bases, MLB is implementing a pitch clock:
PITCH TIMER
From MLB.com
In an effort to create a quicker pace of play, there will be a 30-second timer between batters. Between pitches, there will be a 15-second timer with the bases empty and a 20-second timer with runners on base. At last check, the pitch timer had reduced the average time of game in MiLB by about 26 minutes. This rule, which includes limits on throws to first base, has also increased stolen-base attempts. With this rule in place in the Minors this season, steal attempts per game have increased from 2.23 in 2019, at a 68% success rate, to 2.83 in 2022, at a 77% success rate.
The pitcher must begin his motion to deliver the pitch before the expiration of the pitch timer.
Pitchers who violate the timer are charged with an automatic ball. Batters who violate the timer are charged with an automatic strike.
Batters must be in the box and alert to the pitcher by the 8-second mark or else be charged with an automatic strike.
With runners on base, the timer resets if the pitcher attempts a pickoff or steps off the rubber.
Pitchers are limited to two disengagements (pickoff attempts or step-offs) per plate appearance. However, this limit is reset if a runner or runners advance during the plate appearance.
If a third pickoff attempt is made, the runner automatically advances one base if the pickoff attempt is not successful.
Mound visits, injury timeouts and offensive team timeouts do not count as a disengagement.
If a team has used up all five of its allotted mound visits prior to the ninth inning, that team will receive an additional mound visit in the ninth inning. This effectively serves as an additional disengagement.
Umpires may provide extra time if warranted by special circumstances. (So if, as an example, a catcher were to be thrown out on the bases to end the previous half-inning and needed additional time to put on his catching gear, the umpire could allow it.)
Note that the rule that will be used in MLB is slightly altered from the rule that was used in MiLB this year. In MiLB in 2022, it was a 14-second timer with the bases empty and 18 seconds (Double-A and lower) or 19 seconds (Triple-A) with runners on, with batters required to be in the box by the 9-second mark and a strict limit of two disengagements per plate appearance (that did not reset if the runner advanced). In its most recent week of play, the Minors have seen an average of .45 violations per game.
While I would love to see what the batter and pitcher might do to get each other off their game, I feel like there simply isn’t enough time. If the bases are empty, the pitcher has basically 14 seconds to toss the pitch once he receives the ball from the catcher. The 8-second alert rule means the batter has about 7 seconds to mess with the pitcher however he wants (which seems a long time but he has to set and be ready to swing so I don’t know) or else be charged with an auto-strike. I think there’s probably not a lot of leeway to do much here, although the time between batters (i.e. the ball is thrown around the horn after the previous play is completed) gives the new batter about 20 seconds to moon the pitcher or whatever.
I think the additional level of stress due to the limited disengagements (step-offs and pickoff throws) will be more telling, and will give the batter and baserunner(s) extra time to generate a violation or draw a balk. With 20 seconds to play with and only two disengagements before an auto-balk, the batter and runner have about 12 seconds to spook the pitcher, and that’s where I think AC’s philosophy might come into play more effectively. With bases empty, the batter is just trying to get himself on base somehow, but with runners on and those additional wrinkles with both the clock and the knowledge that pickoff attempts are at a premium, this could get entertaining. I’m desperately trying to find out where I saw the nugget about the batter only getting one call for time per plate appearance but I imagine that timeout request will be much more strategically employed, so there ya go.
The last bit is about the Cubs staff as constructed last season, and obviously some of these guys won’t be on the roster in 2023, but it was still quite telling when most of the pitchers not named Wade Miley would have violated the pitch clock whether there were runners on base or not. This is definitely something they will have to work on in the spring, and I’m sure we’ll see lots of reports of players and managers and umpires freaking out as they learn and adapt to the new rules and enforcement patterns (if any, umpires are a fickle lot).
Comments
Phillies gonna buy more overpaid DHs soon as they just extended Dombrowski
https://twitter.com/JSalisburyNBCS/status/1595076419151106051?t=cTcIrswscpS67vm-H2m-vA&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I won’t be surprised per se, but I will be very disappointed https://twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/1595076134684663808?t=dI6PPmKJ7tWO5Tba2GBNUQ&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing), thanks, RC.
I still think batters will throw off pitchers well after the 8-second mark. In the box and alert to the pitcher still allows for a whole lot of movement. I will have my popcorn ready for Javy at bats.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Now I’m not saying I’m the best hitter (definitely not which is why I’m not playing for any MLB club) but there needs to be time for the batter to load up for the swing so I think we’re looking at a very short window of opportunity for shenanigans IMO, but I agree that the window does exist!
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I will also try to ponder a post on whither spendeth and another potential one to talk about how I’m not giving the Cubs any of my money if they greatly disappoint me
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New Japanese pitcher available just before the Winter Meetings:
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Rice Cube,
The pitcher’s windup is plenty of time to get set. I mean, we’ve seen countless hitters show bunt and then switch to swing mode after the pitcher gets into his motion. And they haven’t even had time to not write the unwritten rules yet, though I’m sure Tony LaRussa is working on that as we speak.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
The pitcher can legally wind up at 1 second on the clock per how I read the rule, they essentially have to just start their motion, so I think there’s gamesmanship on the other end as well which can cause some interesting strategies re: timing on the part of the batter and the baserunner
Rice CubeQuote Reply
My god
Rice CubeQuote Reply
PCA won a Gold Glove (MiLB edition)
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Rice Cube,
Just start him.
andcountingQuote Reply
Glass half-full disclosure: this twitter exodus will cause me to bring a fair amount of Justin Fields praise and anguish over here, and I will just say for now I hope he doesn’t miss any playing time because this is the most fun I’ve had watching sports in the last 6 years.
andcountingQuote Reply
Patience, young Padawans
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Rice Cube,
Screw that noise, it’s all collusion. The Cubs, like every other team, are going slow not just to prevent themselves from spending too much but to collectively curtail spending around the league. It’s like the first few laps of short track speed skating. If we all go slow, we can all save ourselves from expending too much energy (free agent dollars) until the very end.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Oh there’s definitely collusion, just saying that we know we have to wait a bit before someone finally breaks the ice
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think I understand the frustration because we know that through the CBA (draft, luxury tax, pre-arb min salary) they are already cutting costs, and even the agents know that there is some behind closed doors communications between teams to try to keep free agent costs down as well. But given the system we are in and how evil billionaires can be, that puts us into the current reality of having to just wait and see. We obviously should hold the evil billionaires responsible and accountable with our dollars (or withholding them) but otherwise we don’t have as much control as we would like…
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Rice Cube,
My point, if I have one, is that it looks like the Cubs have more allegiance to their fellow owners than to the goal of aggressively building another champion. This so-called virtuous patience is just an invitation to accept minor-to-moderate improvements.
If the Cubs were to say, look, we’re getting Judge, either deGrom or Verlander, and either Correa or Turner, they could sign three huge free agents in the next week. They could not do this and guarantee they’d still collect profits at the same steadily increasing rate they’re enjoying, especially because it would most likely increase the contracts of every other free agent this year and the next several years. But they could do it no problem. What we’re left with instead is waiting and hoping no one does that (or any slightly less aggressive move somewhere between the extremes of absolutely nothing and the slightly psychotic hypothetical above).
The Cubs paid too much for Heyward, but not too much for a World Series. I still view it as a good contract because it was part of an obvious commitment to a championship that spanned two seasons/offseasons. It was their biggest contract but it wasn’t their earliest move. I want to see an unmistakable sign they’re actually going for it, and I want to see it ASAP.
andcountingQuote Reply
Part of it is a form of collusion, but part of it also the players holding off from quickly signing as they fear missing out on millions if they let the market develop. I don’t think anyone wants to sign first unless they’re getting near their ask.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
The only “major” signing so far as the tweet above says is the Tyler Anderson signing and they probably already knew his value and that he didn’t want to move out of LA (dying laughing)
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Rice Cube,
dmick89,
I wonder what if any rules there are about teams communicating to multiple players about their offers. Like, “Look, Carlos, here’s a contract for 8 years, $425 million. It’s either going to have your name or Trea Turner’s name on it, you decide.”
andcountingQuote Reply
Since we’re talking about free agents and folks seem to want Jose Abreu…
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/latest-on-cubs-first-base-plans.html
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andcounting,
I’m guessing there are ways they can hint at it without breaking any bylaws
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The availability of four major free agents at the same position creates a unique negotiating situation.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I think it could go both ways (ha) since the teams can be like “Oh hi Carlos you don’t like our offer, ok we’ll go with Trea Turner” and the agents can be like “Well the Yankees offered X so what do you want to do about your offer?”
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
You could probably say “we have $425 million to spend on shortstop and we’re going to spend it.” Doubt you could bring up another player’s name though.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Given how often stuff gets leaked I’m pretty sure there’s a gentleman’s agreement not to rat each other out since this is part of bargaining SOP
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This is like a police department’s internal affairs investigation but I guess that’s all we got
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-finds-no-collusion-between-yankees-mets-regarding-aaron-judges-free-agency.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
It would be surprising if the MLBPA didn’t look into it. What a joke.
andcountingQuote Reply
Wouldn’t expect much more than this to happen until after Turkey Day, unfortunately…wonder if the Cubs can snag some interesting names in trade even if they’re not blockbusters
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/angels-acquire-hunter-renfroe-from-brewers.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
One of the more disappointing things that could happen other than just resorting to signing Dansby Swanson as Plan D is to keep Nico at short (which I’m fine with) while trading for like Kolten Wong or something for 2B (which is good on the surface but damn would that be cheap as hell)
Unless that means they decided to super upgrade the rotation, in which case I guess I get it?
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For some reason Kolten Wong isn’t on this list but I guess this is a fairly good rundown of the players we might see moving
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-candidates-rafael-devers-corbin-burnes-among-20-players-who-could-move-shohei-ohtani-staying-put/
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This trade list is a tad different (they’re both a couple weeks old now) but it’s a start I suppose
https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-2023-trade-chips-for-every-mlb-team
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The Brewers dumping salary (or seeming to anyway) suggests that the Cubs should be much more aggressive to overtake the Cardinals
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Rice Cube,
FWIW, this has less impact on the Cubs this year. The schedule is more balanced (less division-heavy) so the relative strength of the Central won’t drag down or boost the Cubs in the Wild Card race. The past few seasons, you could finish above. 500 in a weak division just by being a fairly crappy team with half-decent luck. To paraphrase the old African proverb, you didn’t have to be the fastest gazelle to escape the lion, you just needed to make sure you weren’t the slowest. You can’t finish around 90 wins anymore by being the 3rd- or 4th-slowest gazelle in the Central.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
A more balanced schedule would theoretically give incentive to not just hope to outcompete your division rivals, but based on the other Central teams’ (lack of) ambition, it should at least be easier to come up to the top.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Near the top, sure. But a 2nd place finish will be mostly cosmetic. Yes, it’s nice to have less competition at the top of the division, but you’ve got to be one of the top two teams in the league for that to matter anymore. And you aren’t going to have 57 games against the three tanking teams in your division from which to draw wins to make it *look* like you’re one of the top 2 teams. In this scenario, you can be significantly better than all but one team in your division and still finish in 2nd with 78 wins.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Right, I think we agree that the goal should be “better than Cardinals” / “win the Central” because there’s no guarantee a second place finish nabs a wild card.
Anyone here an economist? Who do I blame for the inflation and the high mortgage interest rates?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I may try to think up weird shift restriction exploits later on inspired by this from a couple months ago should I get even more bored at “work”
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Rice Cube,
This answer is going to be so annoying, but not quite. I don’t think it makes sense to frame it divisionally any longer. Taking last year‘s results as an example, being better than the Cardinals would have done the Cubs no good. They need to be better than the Mets, and better than the Braves. The fate of the Phillies after the regular season end, it was no different than the Cardinals. You have to either shoot to be the best team in the league and perhaps field by one, or you need to just make sure you’re in the top five.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I may do it post on this.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Please do, I think the counterargument is that the Phillies could have used a couple more bounces their way to take the World Series despite being the worst team in, which is the rub of the postseason chaos.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
The argument that I think works well with your philosophy is that the Cubs should be shooting for a bye, which obviously means they have to win the division anyway.
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Basically what AC has been saying
https://twitter.com/Matt_Winkelman/status/1595480131111469066?t=VsTbeHbyeXDqf-FZ2vCDqQ&s=19
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Jim Deshaies wants a TOR starter
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I think they need one too. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Yuk, Bryce Harper got TJS but since he’d just be DH he should be able to start swinging by May or so.
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BN says Jesse Rogers suggested Correa would only cost around 7 years and $230-250MM, which the Cubs can theoretically beat if they grow a pair
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Rice Cube,
So Correa and Verlander for a combined $350 million? If they want to win they should have no problem spending it.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I will say that the number from Rogers is probably low so I think both of them together will cost at least $400MM
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
This team would make a fortune, though.
andcountingQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
The Cubs right before 2016 spent a combined $300 million if I remember correctly. I’m guessing a similar commitment is required here if they want a similar return.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
andcounting,
I absolutely agree that they must spend the money if they want to win, I just mean it’s gonna be more than they’ve ever spent all at once, but the payroll going forward should accommodate it assuming they just let prior commitments expire and they’ll still stay under the luxury tax threshold if they wanted to, but I feel like they can take a hit for a year or two and still enjoy their profits and winning.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I would think so. I’m hoping to hear some news about the Cubs meeting with Correa or another one of the shortstops though it really starts and ends with Correa for me. Turner would be okay.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hmmm, Twins are trying…
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/twins-have-reportedly-made-multiple-offers-to-carlos-correa.html
“Multiple offers” suggests that Correa’s camp has been shopping around. I feel like the team that wants his services, including the Cubs, could do a lower AAV but longer term deal with multiple opt outs to allow both sides some compromise and flexibility, or front load the contract prior to the opt out…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
But let’s be real, it’s not like they’re actually spending it all at once. They’d be committing to it all at once, but it’s also on the heels of a dip in spending. A surge is to be expected if for no other reason than reverting to the mean. That may actually be the only reason. (dying laughing)
andcountingQuote Reply
Happy Thanksgiving, jabronis
https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1595779515531243521?t=rTXrpHJ30viRzI7ixgjL9w&s=19
Here’s hoping the Cubs show us how thankful they really are, one way or the other
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Happy Thanksgiving. I was going to be really upset if they didn’t have their Gold Glove left fielder in their Happ-y Thanksgiving video.
andcountingQuote Reply
Happy Day of the Turkey all
berseliusQuote Reply
My bread has already spectacularly failed to rise so I hope it’s not an omen (dying laughing).
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
*Paul Hollywood look of disdain*
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I would not get a handshake for these (dying laughing). At least they still taste good, even if the texture and look is all wrong. Adding a shitload of butter sugar and eggs to dough can’t be all bad!
berseliusQuote Reply
(dies laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
I think the best thing I learned from my time living in Texas is that buying a smoked turkey breast from a bbq place simplifies your logistics incredibly and is something that keeps better than the (usually pretty good) turkey that I used to cook.
berseliusQuote Reply
The only downside is the lack of a carcass for stock making.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I’d ask if they’d throw in the carcass for a few more bucks.
andcountingQuote Reply
Got in to Post.
andcountingQuote Reply
If you are interested in signing up.
https://post.news/?r=K2KSm
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Got in a couple days ago, but didn’t have any time: https://post.news/ba6fbd6a-2889-41f8-bb22-fdbcc7450c3f
dmick89Quote Reply
andcounting,
Bah, that’s not new shit
Rice CubeQuote Reply
MLBTR with the next free agent list for anyone’s long term team building fantasies
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/2023-24-mlb-free-agents.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I stopped making turkey years ago. We are having our family dinner tomorrow and I’ll be making lasagna. It’s easy, even with homemade pasta and sauce. Don’t have to serve 30 things with it. Salad, bread and a drink and you’re good to go. Apple pie because the family outvoted me. Also, apparently my family are idiots because pecan pie was an option. The only option as far as I’m concerned.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
(dying laughing), I’d choose apple every time. Don’t know why pecan never clicked with me. My family generally divided along those lines and it prevented more fights than it started. Everyone always had enough pie.
andcountingQuote Reply
The Cubs could just build via the Japanese contingent and might be able to field a pretty solid team, albeit one that has a frustrating adjustment period a la Seiya
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/the-opener-adames-senga-yoshida.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
dmick89,
I like pecan pie, also lemon meringue is good. Best apple pie I’ve ever had is still the shitty handheld pie from McDonald’s as a kid (dying laughing) I don’t think I like the new recipe but honestly I haven’t had a McDonald’s apple pie for years, the last time I went I got a McRib and immediately reminded myself why I don’t frequent McDonald’s anymore
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
McDonald’s fried apple pies were the absolute best as long as you had the patience to wait 45 minutes until they cooled from where they were cooked from within the depths of Mt. Doom.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
That’s what the soda was for, to extinguish the flames
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Post-Thanksgiving dump –> http://www.obstructedview.net/about-spending/
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