Let me start by saying that I cannot answer this question. The Cubs have way more information than I do and I won't criticize them if at some point they choose to promote him. I won't criticize them if they leave him in High A.
I want to talk about something specifically. It's a comment I often hear and believe I read yesterday (may have been something Myles wrote, but I think it was a quote from someone else).
"He's got nothing else to learn at that level."
Obviously whenever someone says this, and I know I've said it a dozen times, it's obviously an overstatement. Every player has something to learn at every level. At no point is a player at a point where he has nothing ot learn from the level he's currently at.
Mostly though, this is actually something we can look up. A player with nothing else to learn will excel at all aspects of the game. This is simple enough to verify.
There's another comment that I know I've also said a dozen times that is not entirely true.
"The player will have to learn the skill or skills he's currently lacking in at a higher level."
It's going to be a lot easier for Javier Baez to learn some plate discipline at the easier level than it will be at the higher level. Theo and Jed have said they have some benchmarks for players to clear before they promote them and this is why. Obviously Javier Baez can hit for a lot of power, but he's shown little ability in getting on base via walks. To his credit. he's always had a high HBP rate. He's been hit by a pitch 20 times in his career and only walked 25 times. To some extent, Baez is making up for his low walk rate. At the same time, his walk rate can still be much better.
Promoting someone because he'll have to learn how to walk at the tougher level seems like a good way to ensure the player doesn't develop the skill. If a player hit all non-fastball pitches exceptionally well, but couldn't hit the fastball for shit, he might actually have pretty good numbers. For awhile.
At some point they'll just pound him with nothing but fastballs and those numbers will go down. Learning to hit a fastball is a necessary skill and it's best learned at lower levels. If you keep promoting a guy who can't hit a fastball because he has to learn how to do that at the next level, he's probably never going to learn.
If learning to be more selective is a skill the Cubs want Javier Baez to learn, they should probably keep him in Daytona. The Chicago Cubs aren't any good, won't be good next year and probably not the year after. There's no hurry. It's important that the development of these guys is done right and not just to get a player to the big leagues.
What the answer to this question is, I do not know.
Comments
Isn’t it possible that a given level doesn’t provide the opportunity to learn a given skill? For example, what if A- pitchers are shitty at throwing breaking balls. You might have to wait till A+ or AA to properly learn how to hit good breaking balls.
I know it isn’t the case that pitchers in the FSL only throw strikes, but could it be hard for some reason to be patient in that league? The heat and humidity perhaps? (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
the league walk rate is lower in the FSL (8.0%) than in either the southern or midwest leagues (both 9.2%). on the other hand, i would expect baez to be pitched around a little more in A+ vs AA.
GWQuote Reply
I always thought the argument was that if a hitter is good enough relative to the pitching he’s facing that he can be successful (in Javy’s case extremely successful), then there’s no incentive for him to correct his mistakes, that he needs more challenging pitching that can beat him and make him struggle before he realizes, “Oh, hey, I better be more selective because I’m not getting as many of the crappy pitches frequently enough to be successful.”
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
Yeah, that too.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-apology-to-luis-valbuena-and-dioner-navarro/ – Also, Alcantara made the Fringe Five prospect for this week.
Re: Baez – Tennesee’s park favors hitters a bit more than Daytona’s and the Southern League has (slightly) more runs than the FSL. I’d be curious to see how Baez does. The argument can definitely be made that he still has to things to learn in Daytona but it is possible he would learn more efficiently at a higher level. It’s also possible he’d get frustrated and permanently damage his approach. The Cubs don’t need to rush their talent so wherever he ends up is where the franchise feels he needs to be, I’d love to know their reasoning though.
MJKQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
I don’t know. I’d bet that most players people say “he has to be challenged in order to improve” don’t end up improving. That could be the result of the higher level or it could be that he may have learned it easier at the lower level. I don’t really know the answer so your opinion is as good as mine.
I probably didn’t stress it early enough in the article, but I guess the point I’m trying to make more than anything is that there’s no hurry. The Cubs don’t need Baez at the big league level this year. They don’t need him at the big league level next year.
Personally, I’d leave him in Daytona and have him work extensively on plate discipline even if it lowered his overall numbers. I think he’s shown he can hit well enough for High A. that seems to be what the Cubs are trying to do with Castro (or at least that’s what they’re saying they’re doing).
dmick89Quote Reply
sitrick wrote:
There could be some truth to that. However, Baez struggled for about 80 games at High A. He didn’t get any better at taking walks.
This could just mean it’s a skill he’s never going to have. I don’t think there’s anything you could have really done with Corey Patterson or Neifi Perez to improve their plate discipline. They were what they are and Baez probably is too. Baez’s very low walk rate is concerning because it’s even lower than most of the worst players at the big leagues were at the same level.
dmick89Quote Reply
MJK wrote:
Agreed. I don’t know the answer and this is something I assume the Cubs can answer.
As you say, there is no hurry.
dmick89Quote Reply
Does Baez have good strike zone judgement? Does he swing and miss at shitty pitches? Is his low walk rate a result of him being very aggressive? He has a pretty high K%(not sure what league average is) so maybe it’s a little bit of everything causing his low BB%.
MuckerQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
He didn’t, but reports I’ve seen are that he did get more selective, got better at waiting for his pitch and staying compact, That may just not translate to walks at high-A because the pitching is still lousy enough that he’ll still get mistake pitches he can crush with comparative regularity. It might just be that he’s become as selective as this level requires him to be. Especially if he gets his OPS over 1000 (which it’s creeping towards), even if he consciously knows he needs to be more patient, what reason does he have to bring any urgency to change his approach when he can wreck his competition just fine the way he is?
I tend to agree with what Badler said about him and what Sahadev Sharma says the scouts all say about him; that he’s going to need to face the real prospect of failure with his current approach before he really innately understands the need to change his approach. And maybe his bat is so quick that he’ll never get to that point, I don’t know.
I do trust in the reports that say his approach is better today than it was a year ago. I’m not sure what good letting him beat up on competition he’s clearly a cut above does except build his confidence, and the book on him is that he’s insanely confident to begin with.
sitrickQuote Reply
Cubs not losing.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
B.S.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Yet.
dmick, I didn’t say that. Baez should stay at Daytona IMO
MylesQuote Reply
Zonk just said “dag-gum” without a hint of irony. I love that.
sitrickQuote Reply
I unironically like Pat and Keith, but basically everyone else I’ve talked to doesn’t like Keith Moreland
MylesQuote Reply
How is Cesar Izturis only 33? He’s been playing in the bigs since before I was born, and I’m 39.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
My dad doesn’t like him. I have a hard time disliking him — he is quite pleasant. But I do find him annoying. He has certain ways of saying things that get on my nerves, and while he is quite smart about baseball, he often needs Pat to point things out that he can provide insights on.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I liked Keith Moreland when he occasionally subbed for Santo, but I’ve become much less of a fan of him when he’s the every day guy. Having someone as great as Deshaies on the tv broadcast makes Moreland look poorer by comparison too. Oddly enough I feel like Judd Sirott has grown on me.
BerseliusQuote Reply
When Kerry Wood was in the radio booth yesterday I found myself hoping he decides to take that seat soon, since I’d assume it’s open for him if he ever wants it. He instantly had great chemistry with both Pat and Keith, that entire inning was fantastic.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I also think that Keith would be more than happy to come back to Austin and do Longhorns radio again, but that’s not nearly as much work as an MLB team.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Yes. Deshaies is so good. He is a smart person who sounds like he belongs to this era, whereas so many sports announcers sound like they come from the past.
Judd clearly has done a lot of homework on the game and on his broadcasting style. They stopped him from doing PBP, thank derosa, but it’s a little weird when Keith is doing it and Judd is just there to set up questions for him to pontificate on in between calling the plays.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Didn’t the Reds score a couple runs that inning?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
It’s funny, my uncle doesn’t like Deshaies. He is more like your typical fan though, he roots for the team and watches the games, but gets most his information from MSM. He isn’t really aware/into the analytical side of the game.
WaLiQuote Reply
Cubs lose.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
One thing about JD is that he is very reserved, which is a bit jarring after 30 years of Brenly and Stone. I can see some people thinking he’s not rah rah enough, for example.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I love JD. Not being in town any more, I don’t hear Moreland regularly, so I can’t say. I’ve heard Wood, and he’s a natural for TV or radio, would be truly shocked if he doesn’t land a gig there soon-ish.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
the other day i was contemplating the ironic purchase of a theriot shirsey, but i got worried that the 95% of cub fans who are idiots wouldn’t get the joke. sounds like i made the right choice. i’ll keep wearing my augie ojeda shirsey for now.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/where-is-our-breaking-point-as-cubs-fans.html
Aisle424Quote Reply