Jen Ho-Tseng Officially Signs
The Cubs made things officially official with Jen-Ho Tseng on Monday, in a move that was originally reported three weeks ago. The team is a friend of Taiwan, having now employed seven Taiwanese players in their history, a figure that is second only to the Indians.* Tseng will receive a $1.625 million bonus as well as college tuition and some sort of allowance for his family to travel to the US. For their part, the Taiwanese media has moved on in their search for the next Catfish.
*In case you are wondering, current Taiwanese players in the system are Yao-Lin Wang and Pin-Chieh Chen. Former players include Hung-Chih Kuo, Hung-Wen Chen, Chih-Hsiang Wen, and Tzu-An Wang. Taiwan Easterling is not eligible for inclusion.
International Free Agents in Action
As 16-year olds, most of the Cub signees are currently ineligible to participate in DSL/VSL play.* The exceptions are the 19-year old Tseng, who is heading to Australia to participate in MLB’s Australian Academy before making his way to the US in September, and Jefferson Mejia, who has made a single appearance to date in the Dominican Summer League.
*I’m not completely clear on the rules here. For some reason, 16-year old Julio Urias is eligible and has been pitching most of the season in A-ball. My understanding is that since he came from the Mexican League, different rules apply. As an aside, a sixteen-year old holding his own in the Midwest League? Pretty good.
Luis Encarnacion to the Phils
Dominican third baseman Luis Encarnacion, the fourth ranked prospect in BA’s top 30, signed with the Phillies last Friday. My sense in perusing other Cubs blogs is that quite a few people thought the Cubs had a chance with Encarnacion, who signed immediately after turning 16. This despite those in the know predicting he would sign with the Phils for months now. As far as I can tell, all the speculation stemmed from a Phil Rogers report that Leonardo Molina and Encarnacion were next on the Cubs’ list as part of their plans to spend wildly on IFAs. At about the same time, Gordon Wittenmeyer had a similar report, without speculating on any names. It seems like Phil simply went down BA’s top 30 list, found the ones who were unsigned, and reported them as Cubs targets. Quite frankly, he should have known better. Phil does some work for BA and presumably could have emailed someone who could fill him in on what was really happening, namely that these particular players were unsigned only because they were not yet 16; agreements were in place. The lesson here? Never bet against Badler.
Cubs Finished?
There are several still-unsigned players that have been highly regarded by one talent evaluator or another at some point. These include Yimmelvyn Alonzo, Wladimir Galindo, Wasner Peguero, and Angelo Serrano. At this point, there are no reported issues preventing these players from signing, so I expect that if they were on the Cubs’ radar, they would already be in the fold. Shortstop Obispo Aybar-Lara is another name to keep in mind, as he will be ineligible to sign until April 2014. Other names could emerge in the meantime, but I think it’s safe to say that there are no impending deals.
Overall, it’s a little disappointing to those of us who hoped that going over meant going way over, but not unexpected given the predetermined nature of these agreements. Of the bigger names that appear not to have had an agreement on July 2nd, the Cubs successfully signed Tseng, but showed no interest in Cuban defector Leandro Linares.
Cubs IFA Strategy
With the benefit of hindsight, we can bring some clarity to the Cubs’ plan. My guess is that the club worked in the weeks prior to July 2nd to acquire additional spending pool space such that they wouldn’t have to go into the penalty. I suspect that the deal they made with Houston, sending Ronald Torreyes for space, was agreed upon well before they realized that they wouldn’t be able to acquire enough. I think that by July 2nd, the opening of the current period, the Cubs had a pretty good idea that it wasn’t going to happen, and thus agreed to the trade that sent pool space along with Carlos Marmol to the Dodgers. Not wanting to close the door completely in the midst of trading season, however, they held off on signing Jimenez as well as their Plan B until later. What was that Plan B? It’s looking like it was simply to sign Jen-Ho Tseng.
For their part, the front office seems to be sticking with their story that the original plan played out precisely as expected; I am thoroughly unconvinced. This line stood out to me in particular:
Because the Cubs had the second-most pool money, which was determined by how the team finished in 2012, they wanted to take advantage of being in that position, Epstein said.
What the Cubs did was the opposite of taking advantage of their position. As the Rangers showed, pool space is irrelevant if you want to overspend on IFAs. Taking advantage of their position would have meant either trading space away (on net) and then going over anyway, or staying just within the penalty limits. If saving a million or two on taxes this year while incurring spending limits next year is their definition of “taking of advantage of that position,” then the coffers are pretty bare (and I don’t think that they are). Love your work, Brett, but I’m just going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there.
Comments
I asked Badler on Twitter about Theo’s remarks on this, whether he bought that it was the plan all along or if it was just spin. He reiterated that their plan was to trade for extra pool space, and that it was harder than they thought it would be to get, and so they changed gears.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
interesting. he definitely has his finger on the pulse of these things as much as anyone.
GWQuote Reply
Disagree with Brett also. They did not take advantage of their situation. It feels more like they got played than they did take advantage. You either free yourself to sign players for max value next year or you go way over. Anything else is poorly done IMO.
It’s not a big deal at the end of the day, but I don’t think the organization deserves a pat in the back here.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs really only signed one additional player here. That’s it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Granted, that player was a highly valued player, but still.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I do believe they thought there’d be a market inefficiency with the J2s this year, which is why they made all the deals they did. Seems like they got caught with their pants down trying to guess how stingy teams would be with their pool slots though.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
From what I understand, most of these deals get agreed on well before July 2nd. Probably wasn’t much they could do with deals in place and extra pool money not worth trading for.
sitrickQuote Reply
yep, i think the temptation is to overestimate the front office’s ability, since they are clearly smart guys, but they certainly aren’t infallible. they thought they could trade for enough space and that ended up not being the case. it happens. after that, there really weren’t a lot of options. Tseng was one; Linares would have been another.
GWQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
I don’t think the deal was for Tseng. I think they realized they were over and got him.
I guess I just have an issue with going over for one guy. Not to mention that they also traded Torreyes. Even though he’s struggled since the trade, this is still a young middle infielder at AA who is a hell of a lot more likely to contribute at the MLB level than Jimenez.
The Cubs miscalculated here. it’s not a huge deal. Losing Torreyes isn’t going to bite them in the ass or anything. It’s just that I don’t think they should be congratulated on how well they went about the IFA signings.
I think the Rangers clearly had the best plan and considering their money available, they were very smart about it. I’d rather a team that has the 2nd most money stay under the penalties. I really don’t like the idea of not being able to go after the best players next year. The time to go over and spend wildly is when you don’t have much money (like the Rangers).
But, if you are going to go over, you have to go way over.
dmick89Quote Reply
GW wrote:
THIS.
dmick89Quote Reply
Agreed on all accounts.
sitrickQuote Reply
I have no idea. Cubes rule!
joshQuote Reply
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/08/14/baffoe-this-is-the-year-of-the-cubes/
MishQuote Reply
guerrier out 6 to 8 months
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/19200/guerrier-to-seek-second-opinion-on-forearm
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
where were you at on that one, crack cubs medical staff that vetoes all trades?
GWQuote Reply
Kris Bryant hit his 2nd home run at Daytona.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Cubs win.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
So Castro got was out of the lineup today because of suckitis according to Sveum.
dmick89Quote Reply
the cubs have passed the brewers in the race to the top, at least temporarily
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
If they can win ’em all from here on out, they should reach the playoffs.
dmick89Quote Reply
The cubs could still win 93 games this year. I’ll bet they finish with 89 instead.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
It’s good to be in the basement again. Here’s hoping something silly happens and Rodon falls to wherever we end up.
sitrickQuote Reply
since the rangers traded for garza both matt harrison and colby lewis have been pronounced done for the year, feliz had a setback due to triceps soreness, and now ogando has a sore shoulder.
GWQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
rodon could fall to 4. kiley mcdaniel has been talking up jeff hoffman as potentially #1 overall.
GWQuote Reply
Garza’s having issues tonight.
This article is fun because of all the silly gifs:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21515
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GW:
Sounds like it’s time for Garza to break his ankle vaulting over the dugout rail.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
+1
GWQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
This article would have been 57% funnier if they used out l.o.l macro.
See? Funnier.
dmick89Quote Reply
Soriano had 2HR 6 rbi yesterday and had 2HR 7rbi today.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
Lazy bastard
Suburban kidQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/08/15/paul-janish-fields-he-bats-he-fields-bats/
BerseliusQuote Reply
Myles. If you meet a very enthusiastic guy named Eric T from Wisconsin (early 40s, long hair speckled grey) tell him I said hello.
SVBQuote Reply
Watching the replay of Sorianos homeruns last night. When Jared Weaver throws that fastball down the middle it looks like batting practice.
joshQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/jot-cubs-minor-league-recap-8-14-13.html
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Poor little bat. I wonder if he collided with the stadium and knocked himself silly or something.
joshQuote Reply
Quiero saber que equipo esta en negociaciones con el prospecto dominicano YIMMELVYN ALONZO.
TEOFILO SANTANA T.Quote Reply