Cubs win! The Cubs took an early lead on a first inning home run by Anthony Rizzo that still hasn't landed. Combine that with eight strong innings by Jeff Samardzija (two hits, one walk, 9 strikeouts) and it's a recipe for a Cubs win. Carlos Marmol made the end of the game interesting by doing Carlos Marmol things at the beginning of the ninth, but Sveum rightly pulled him and had James Russell and Kyuji Fujikawa shut the door on the Pirates. Per Sveum, Marmol is still the closer, but didn't have it today. Better go pick up Fyukikawa in your fantasy leagues if you haven't already.
New Cub Nate Schierholtz reached base four times on a walk, hbp, error, and a single. Brent Lillibridge was not so lucky, going 0-3 with three strikeouts and a fielding error before being replaced by Alberto Gonzalez. Welington Castillo had a nice day with two doubles, mitigated by a dumb TOOTBLAN, even by the Cubs recent baserunning standards.
Players of the Game
Cubs:
- Jeff Samardzija (.378 WPA)
- Anthony Rizzo (.162 WPA)
Pirates:
- No one – highest WPA was Garrett Jones at a whopping 0.019
Goats of the Game
Cubs:
- Carlos Marmol (-0.142 WPA)
Pirates:
- Russell Martin (-.151 WPA)
Around the league
- Clayton Kershaw homered and pitched a complete game shutout in the Dodgers opener. I guess he's ready for the season.
- Bryce Harper led the Nationals over the Marlins with two solo HRs. Strasburg went seven scoreless innings, striking out 3 and walking none.
- The Mets pounded Rookie of the Year candidate Edinson Volquez. They're still a team starting Marlon Byrd in RF, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them end up with a worse record than the Cubs, fire sale be damned.
- Chris Sale shut down the Royals in a game the White Sox went on to win 1-0
- The Red Sox beat the Yankees, 4-0. Will the Yankees crack .500 this year?
Comments
impressive performance from a buzzed berselius
GWQuote Reply
Rightly? I don’t see how panicking after 4 batters is a good strategy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I got him in the latter rounds of my draft, as an autopick. Bitches.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
marmol sucks
GWQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
He had nothing today. It was the right move.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Especially game 1 of the season.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
Good beer (and bourbon) and a Cubs win, can’t ask for much more.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I’m always skeptical about whether people can tell whether a pitcher “has it” on a given day or not. It’s not uncommon for a pitcher to pitch badly for a few batters and then well for the next few. Or for a starter to have one bad inning and six good ones. If people could reliably predict in advance when a pitcher will fail, I’d listen.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
They still suck.
guys_from_major_league.jpg
joshQuote Reply
Really, the right move would not to have Marmol pitching the ninth at all, but that’s a different story.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Eh fuck him. He’s done. They’ll be lucky to get a bucket of used tampons for him at this point.
joshQuote Reply
This Reds/Angels game doesn’t want to end.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
He was shitty on four out of four batters (including the strikeout). He was batting 1.000 on being shitty as a pitcher in that inning.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ josh:
Like this?
/disgusting_picture_of_a_bucket_of_used_tampons.gif
(that’s right, a gif. They fucking move)
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Who is better than Marmol? Fujikawa might be.
/comingfromsomeonewhohasntlikedmarmolforalongtime
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I like both Russell and Fyujikawa over him. Probably Cubs MVP Shawn Camp too.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
His point is that you can’t use those 4 batters to predict how he’ll do later on. There have been all sorts of cold/hot studies and they find there’s no predictive value in them. Especially at that sample size anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
FWIW, if Marmol gave up five straight homers it would still be a small sample size. That’s always going to be the case when you choose to pull a reliever.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Russell should never face a right handed batter. He’s good vs lefties, but that’s about it.
As for Fujikawa, who knows?
dmick89Quote Reply
I’ll just say if you constantly take out relievers who appear to be struggling, you’re going to be making a lot of pitching changes.
As for Marmol, if this was even possible the cubs were crazy to not trade him. What did they think would happen with him? That it would go swimmingly?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
@ dmick89:
I’d be interested to see if Marmol is more prone to hot or cold streaks than most. For the most part, I’m all for taking the probabilistic/large sample approach to evaluating strategy as I think it’s the best way to get results over the long term. However, if you find that Marmol does genuinely have times when he just struggles to throw strikes (perhaps due to a mental or mechanical issue), it’s probably a good idea to get out the hook when he really can’t find the plate. An extreme example of this would be when a pitcher gets a Thing, like Rick Ankiel did in the playoffs way back when. When that happens you don’t just say, ‘fuck it, let him work through this.’
Marmol’s issues aren’t that bad, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t something out of the ordinary going on. Then again, you might look at it and find that he really isn’t throwing that many more balls when he’s off than when he’s on, but that instead he just works so close to the margin that it seems that way. I’m hoping that’s something that the team has considered and they’re handling him appropriately.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
It does seem that Marmol is more prone to being “on” and “off” than other relievers, although it may be because of the latter of what you said.
WaLiQuote Reply
Also fuck yeah Cubs baseball finally being back
WaLiQuote Reply
casper wells and robinson chirinos or nate schierholtz and steve clevenger, who ya got?
(in the parlance of our times)
the former have been dfa’ed
GWQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
The problem is finding evidence in the sample of one player. While it may be true, I find it hard to believe any data on this would be the least bit useful. There’s no way you’d find statistically significant results.
I think it’s kind of funny. 5 or 6 years ago I’d have been pissed that they left Marmol in. 3-4 years ago I’d have been pissed if they took him out. By him, I mean anyone in that situation. Today I wouldn’t have cared a damn bit if Sveum brought in an injured Darwin Barney to replace Marmol.
It’s like it was in the 90s. You know the cubs will suck so you just enjoy baseball and don’t care about the wins and losses.
dmick89Quote Reply
Schierholtz and Chirinos.
dmick89Quote Reply
Is it just me or do the bottom forum links not update?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Those are new topics so it doesn’t update until a new topic is posted. I’m looking into alternatives.
dmick89Quote Reply
I hate the “off day after Opening Day” so much.
GBTSQuote Reply
I think the thing with Marmol is that it’s dependent on the strike zone. If the ump is fair to generous, Marmol will do well. If the ump calls him close, he won’t. He’s rarely in the strike zone on a good day. And some days the batters really help him out.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
“Rightly? I don’t see how panicking after 4 batters is a good strategy.”
When would it have been ok to remove Marmol in your mind? When the Pirates were walking off the field with a victory? A 3-0 count with the bases full of walks and the winning run on 3rd?
The only guy Marmol retired whiffed on a pitch that bounced in front of home plate. Marmol’s day consisted of:
3 foul balls
4 called strikes
1 swinging strike
9 balls
1 HBP
1 line drive single
The Piratess had a 3.0% Win Expectancy when Marmol started the inning and it had jumped to 17% when Sveum finally pulled the plug.
Sveum has sat there and watched Marmol be shitty all spring – it’s not like he’s some asshole reading boxscores and making judgments on the internet like me. It’s impossible to say for sure if Marmol would have gotten his shit together and struck out the next two guys, but I think we can all agree… it wasn’t looking particularly promising. Sveum made a move and the Cubs won the game. Making those kinds of calls is what makes Sveum the big bucks. I hope he continues to ‘panic’ if the same situation happens again.
Chet MastersonQuote Reply
Cubs —> D-O-N… oh wait we won?
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaYlohVNAR4
GBTSQuote Reply
Can someone with a BCB account remind Alvin that his Lee for Cain trade didn’t stop there?
GBTSQuote Reply
hey hey holy mackrel no doubt about it…
ccdQuote Reply
what’s the issue with this
?
ccdQuote Reply
i meant this
ccdQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
You might be able to find statistically significant results if the question was simply whether or not Marmol’s ability to throw strikes was ‘streakier’ than the general population. I mean, the guy’s faced 2200 batters, which is probably like 10,000 pitches. That’s a healthy sample.
I think you’re rightly suspicious of the value of such knowledge, though. You can confirm that he’s less consistent than an average pitcher, but you’re also probably going to get way more useful info on what’s happening by monitoring his mechanics and communicating with him over the course of the season.
Mostly, I’m just glad he’s in the last year of his deal. Hard to believe he’s 30.
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
In that situation, there was no “later on”. I understand the concept, but I’m not sure it is useful knowledge for RP who tend to pitch no more than one inning. And in the bottom of the ninth with the winning run at the plate, I’m not going to bitch about “too many pitching changes”.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Yeah, why the fuck do they do that?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
In case the ceremony that is “Opening Day” gets rained/snowed out, they want to give the gathered fans/media/dignitaries/marching bands a second chance. Obviously they could shift festivities to the second game on the calendar, but the fans who bought opening day tix would be pissed off? Or something.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Is it stupid to think that WPA is the best statistic for relievers? I can’t think of anything better because of SSS.
MylesQuote Reply
dylanj wrote:
RynoQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
They pull that shit every year…
RynoQuote Reply
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
The season is still young, you’ll either get it right soon or be sent back to the minor blogs like Rant Sports.
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/dips-game-score.html
WaLiQuote Reply
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply