New CBA notes

In Major League Baseball by dmick89361 Comments

We needed a new thread and I’ve been busy this weekend so you get a link to MLB Trade Rumors about the new CBA.

  • minimum salary will increased from $414,000 to $480,000 next year and $500,000 after that.
  • Super Two cutoff is now the 22% with the most service time between 2 and 3 years rather than 17%
  • blood testing for HGH with penalties similar to steroids
  • Division winners will reportedly be able to play teams from their own division in the LDS now, which is how it should have always been.

The Super Two cutoff being changed will have no direct impact on the Cubs. Starlin Castro was already going to be super two eligible after this season. It could have an impact in that teams, possibly even the Cubs, bring players up later than usual to ensure they get 3 full seasons plus a partial season of league minimum payment. Brett Jackson could be one of those guys.

Blood testing for HGH? Who cares?

The rule not allowing two teams within a division to play one another in the LDS was always stupid. Glad that’s gone if the report from Buster Olney is true.


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  3. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GW]I’m not sure how they do the hgh tests now, but I’m definitely skeptical of their effectiveness[/quote]I think they mostly looked at head size and HR totals.

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  5. Rice Cube

    I actually thought they started blood testing for HGH in the minors last season. Was I mistaken? The minors thing might have just been a prelude to this new provision.

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  6. GW

    They used to test carbon isotopes, which strikes me as pretty damn noisy, plus the hormone tends to be cleared really quickly during exercise, which puts a damper on the whole thing. I think now they are looking at IGF-1, which circulates for longer. I dunno, I think IGF-1 levels can vary quite a bit depending on race, stress, workout levels, etc… I suppose you can control for all that stuff, but I think the normal range is pretty wide compared to other biomarkers.

    Mostly I just don’t trust the wada, i suppose, as my impression is that they just want to scare all the athletes into compliance by touting the accuracy of their tests.

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  7. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GW]They used to test carbon isotopes, which strikes me as pretty damn noisy, plus the hormone tends to be cleared really quickly during exercise, which puts a damper on the whole thing. I think now they are looking at IGF-1, which circulates for longer. I dunno, I think IGF-1 levels can vary quite a bit depending on race, stress, workout levels, etc… I suppose you can control for all that stuff, but I think the normal range is pretty wide compared to other biomarkers.

    Mostly I just don’t trust the wada, i suppose, as my impression is that they just want to scare all the athletes into compliance by touting the accuracy of their tests.[/quote]I always just kind of assumed they drew blood, spun it down and then ran an ELISA on the plasma. I wonder if they have some kind of 5/25/75/95 range of “normal” HGH levels and how they’d reconcile this for someone who just naturally has a high serum hormone level due to their own unique physiology rather than doping.

    Seems also that the natural hormone would have specific modifications that the recombinant hormone does not so an ELISA-like process would detect only the unmodified recombinant protein rather than the native one.

    If the link MB posted is true and the MLB implements random testing, or even mandatory testing every 21 days or so (which might be annoying as I don’t actually know how often someone can give a blood sample or how much actual blood is needed, I assume less than 10 cc though but the poking has got to suck) then I agree that this could be a major deterrent to doping regardless of how accurate the tests are.

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  8. fang2415

    [quote name=Rice Cube]this could be a major deterrent to doping regardless of how accurate the tests are.[/quote]If any inaccuracies yield false negatives, yes. If they get many false positives, then that’ll just fuck everything up all kinds of ways.

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  9. Rice Cube

    [quote name=fang2415]If any inaccuracies yield false negatives, yes. If they get many false positives, then that’ll just fuck everything up all kinds of ways.[/quote]I could see that being a major problem as well so they’d better make sure they have the right test, eh? (dying laughing)

    I’m thinking also that players will be allowed to appeal for a re-test depending on the turnaround time for results.

    I don’t think MLB would implement a test with a 30% false positive rate (just pulling that number out of the air) but at the same time you have to wonder how many players will take tainted B12 vitamins?

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  10. GW

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I wonder if they have some kind of 5/25/75/95 range of “normal” HGH levels and how they’d reconcile this for someone who just naturally has a high serum hormone level due to their own unique physiology rather than doping. [/quote]
    they don’t test the hgh itself because it’s cleared so rapidly, and the it’s difficult to distinguish the natural from the recombinant. from what i understand, the downstream stuff that they test for can vary by an order of magnitude depending on a host of factors.

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  11. cdw 22

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I always just kind of assumed they drew blood, spun it down and then ran an ELISA on the plasma. I wonder if they have some kind of 5/25/75/95 range of “normal” HGH levels and how they’d reconcile this for someone who just naturally has a high serum hormone level due to their own unique physiology rather than doping.

    Seems also that the natural hormone would have specific modifications that the recombinant hormone does not so an ELISA-like process would detect only the unmodified recombinant protein rather than the native one.

    If the link MB posted is true and the MLB implements random testing, or even mandatory testing every 21 days or so (which might be annoying as I don’t actually know how often someone can give a blood sample or how much actual blood is needed, I assume less than 10 cc though but the poking has got to suck) then I agree that this could be a major deterrent to doping regardless of how accurate the tests are.[/quote]
    ELISA results compared to age binned population distributions was my assumption as well. I don’t know how effective their mAbs would be at distinguishing recombinant vs naturally occurring HGH as mAbs can be really promiscuous. Plus I’m assuming the rHGH is likely the predominant sequence of rHGH found in humans which would make specificity toward rHGH vs endogenous HGH more problematic. I don’t know. Maybe the company selling the assay has fantastic mAbs that can specifically recognize sequence or post-translational differences.

    I really hope they aren’t testing IGF-1. An indirect assay for rHGH using a species like IGF-1 which is prone to concentration changes due to perturbations in diet & nutrition is likely measuring changes not caused by rHGH.

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  12. GW

    [quote name=cdw 22]ELISA results compared to age binned population distributions was my assumption as well. I don’t know how effective their mAbs would be at distinguishing recombinant vs naturally occurring HGH as mAbs can be really promiscuous. Plus I’m assuming the rHGH is likely the predominant sequence of rHGH found in humans which would make specificity toward rHGH vs endogenous HGH more problematic. I don’t know. Maybe the company selling the assay has fantastic mAbs that can specifically recognize sequence or post-translational differences.

    I really hope they aren’t testing IGF-1. An indirect assay for rHGH using a species like IGF-1 which is prone to concentration changes due to perturbations in diet & nutrition is likely measuring changes not caused by rHGH.[/quote]
    Yes. this.

    I’m almost positive that they don’t test the rHGH itself anymore, but when they did, they looked at C13 isotopes. it’s a small protein, and there’s nothing that a mab could pick out in terms of post-translational mods

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  13. Suburban kid 22

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I always just kind of assumed they drew blood, spun it down and then ran an ELISA on the plasma. I wonder if they have some kind of 5/25/75/95 range of “normal” HGH levels and how they’d reconcile this for someone who just naturally has a high serum hormone level due to their own unique physiology rather than doping.

    Seems also that the natural hormone would have specific modifications that the recombinant hormone does not so an ELISA-like process would detect only the unmodified recombinant protein rather than the native one.

    If the link MB posted is true and the MLB implements random testing, or even mandatory testing every 21 days or so (which might be annoying as I don’t actually know how often someone can give a blood sample or how much actual blood is needed, I assume less than 10 cc though but the poking has got to suck) then I agree that this could be a major deterrent to doping regardless of how accurate the tests are.[/quote]False

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  14. fang2415

    [quote name=Suburban kid 22]False[/quote](dying laughing)

    Looks like this is going to be one of those people-with-an-obscene-amount-of-specialized-knowledge vs. just-us-usual-dumbfucks threads

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  15. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GW]Yes. this.

    I’m almost positive that they don’t test the rHGH itself anymore, but when they did, they looked at C13 isotopes. it’s a small protein, and there’s nothing that a mab could pick out in terms of post-translational mods[/quote]The only one that usually should work is phosphorylation. No clue is HGH is actually phosphorylated though. Although don’t know if it is glycosylated etc as most secreted proteins should have some, but a recombinant protein shouldn’t be. I doubt you can make a good Ab based off glycosylation though as that is probably much more heterogenous than a phosphosite.

    I don’t suppose wiki has a blurb about how they usually do the tests?

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  16. fang2415

    [quote name=Rice Cube]The only one that usually should work is phosphorylation. No clue is HGH is actually phosphorylated though. Although don’t know if it is glycosylated etc as most secreted proteins should have some, but a recombinant protein shouldn’t be. I doubt you can make a good Ab based off glycosylation though as that is probably much more heterogenous than a phosphosite.[/quote](dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    There isn’t one single noun in this that I understand without looking it up. The only adjectives I understand are “only”, “most”, “good”, and “more”. (dying laughing)

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  17. Rice Cube

    [quote name=fang2415](dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    There isn’t one single noun in this that I understand without looking it up. The only adjectives I understand are “only”, “most”, “good”, and “more”. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    Space shuttle.

    I think cdw and GW probably know more about this stuff than I do though (dying laughing)

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  19. binky

    I believe an older, grandmotherly type should ask the question. The exact grandmother type used will vary based on a host of factors, age, race, etc.

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  20. GW

    http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2011/09/cheaters-beware-new-doping-tests.html

    The current test, which was implemented in 2004, compares the ratio between two different sizes, or isotopes, of the HGH molecule in the blood. Synthetic doping agents use the larger molecule, while the body normally makes both the larger and the smaller isotopes. But a newer test detects levels of two other blood proteins, IGF-1 and P3NP, whose levels increase with HGH administration and are detectable for longer, expanding the surveillance window

    i don’t know what p3np is.

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  21. Rodrigo Ramirez

    [quote name=fang2415](dying laughing)

    Looks like this is going to be one of those people-with-an-obscene-amount-of-specialized-knowledge vs. just-us-usual-dumbfucks threads[/quote]
    Can I be on the dumbfuck side?

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  22. GW

    One difficulty with any of these tests is that vital data vary quite a bit from person to person. To avoid false positives and negatives in testing, antidoping officials have proposed that competitors maintain a “biological passport,” a baseline profile of each athlete’s natural blood composition. The World Anti-Doping Agency supports the idea, Cowan says, but the International Olympic Commission has made no announcement committing to implementing it. Organizations such as the International Cycling Union and International Association of Athletics Federations have been using the biological passport since 2008, says Yorck Olaf Schumacher of the University of Freiberg in Germany. A course of six tests over a year, or even a shorter span of time, he says, gives doping testers a good idea of an athlete’s profile.

    this is where things are headed, i think. seems pretty costly and invasive to me, though.

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  25. GW

    [quote name=Rice Cube]http://jcem.endojournals.org/content/94/11/4224.short

    P3NP is an acronym for N-terminal type III procollagen peptide which I presume is a byproduct of muscle breakdown when muscle is torn and rebuilt after exercise. If a guy exercises a bunch without PEDs then I feel like using this as a measure of HGH use is indirect bullshit.[/quote]
    yeah, seems like the bioanalytical equivalent of measuring biceps.

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  26. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GW]yeah, seems like the bioanalytical equivalent of measuring biceps.[/quote]This is a picture of the new CBA-approved HGH test:

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  27. binky

    So what I’m getting from this is that tests for HGH are unreliable if not outright impossible. How can they enforce it then? What does HGH do for you that steroids doesn’t? Why is it illegal?

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  28. binky

    Sorry for all the questions. I’ve never heard anything but HGH IS CHEATING! What if a guy uses stem cell treatment to treat, say a damaged muscle?

    Shit, more questions.

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  29. mb21

    [quote name=josh]So what I’m getting from this is that tests for HGH are unreliable if not outright impossible. How can they enforce it then? What does HGH do for you that steroids doesn’t? Why is it illegal?[/quote]I think a lot of scientists believe that HGH does not improve baseball performance.

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  30. mb21

    [quote name=josh]Sorry for all the questions. I’ve never heard anything but HGH IS CHEATING! What if a guy uses stem cell treatment to treat, say a damaged muscle?

    Shit, more questions.[/quote]Our opinions of “cheating” are going to change dramatically in the years to come. I’m hopeful it happens when this current younger generation grows up and realizes how retarded they are, but that may not happen.

    I don’t know about the rest of you, but if there’s some kind of treatment that would help a batter hit a ball 750 feet, I want to see that. I couldn’t give a shit less about what’s natural. Do. Not. Care.

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  32. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Mish]http://www.npr.org/2011/11/20/142569472/how-one-man-played-moneyball-with-jeopardy?sc=fb&cc=fp[/quote]That’s awesome.

    The other CBA change with the raise in minimum salary wasn’t discussed, but how much does that really affect teams? You kind of figure that the extra ~100K per scrub won’t really hurt the pocketbook anyway.

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  35. binky

    [quote name=mb21]Our opinions of “cheating” are going to change dramatically in the years to come. I’m hopeful it happens when this current younger generation grows up and realizes how retarded they are, but that may not happen.

    I don’t know about the rest of you, but if there’s some kind of treatment that would help a batter hit a ball 750 feet, I want to see that. I couldn’t give a shit less about what’s natural. Do. Not. Care.[/quote]Well, and maybe therapies like HGH and stem cells help extend a player’s career. It’s not like they are talent pills. I’m sure baseball will be the last to change on issues like that, but maybe that’s just modern science. At least steroids were shown to be harmful, right? Or were they? That was the storyline I always heard.

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  36. binky

    I think it’s unfair to ask a guy to use therapies that are definitely going to shorten his lifespan to play a sport, though you could argue playing football is bad for your health no matter what you do. But if it’s safe and helps a guy heal or reduces the pain of injury, then I have no problem with it.

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  38. mb21

    [quote name=josh]I think it’s unfair to ask a guy to use therapies that are definitely going to shorten his lifespan to play a sport, though you could argue playing football is bad for your health no matter what you do. But if it’s safe and helps a guy heal or reduces the pain of injury, then I have no problem with it.[/quote]I’m not asking them to. Eventually these drugs will be relatively safe at which point, what? At some point they may prolong life at which point we deny the baseball player access? Most importantly I don’t care what an adult puts in his body.

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  46. binky

    [quote name=GBTS]Cutler —-> Broken thumb on throwing hand, apparently.[/quote]Shit. Well, winning was fun while it lasted.

    [quote name=mb21]I’m not asking them to. Eventually these drugs will be relatively safe at which point, what? At some point they may prolong life at which point we deny the baseball player access? Most importantly I don’t care what an adult puts in his body.[/quote]Fair enough. Usually it’s considered cheating, but If everyone does it, then it’s not really cheating, even if there is an advantage. Most of the arguments against I can think of are tradition, playing the game the right way, and other abstract stuff. I can see an argument for amateurs not using PEDs, because not all amateurs (or countries, in the case of the olympics) will have access to the same resources, so that could create an even more unfair situation. But at the pro level, I don’t see it mattering as much. The only way I would say it matters is if it costs the sport fans. If people won’t watch, and we risk losing baseball completely, then ban it. If it’s the other way and even more people watch, I’m all for more baseball.

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  47. binky

    [quote name=GBTS]Cutler —–> Done for regular season[/quote]Hopefully Hanie continues his “wow, dude isn’t the worst” from that one post season appearance he had.

    Let’s face it, the Bears live and die by their defense anyway. If Hanie can at least keep it close…. Shit. This sucks.

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  48. GBTS

    [quote name=josh]
    Let’s face it, the Bears live and die by their defense anyway. If Hanie can at least keep it close…. Shit. This sucks.[/quote]Cutler has been a top 5 NFL QB the last month. Forte has been great, but teams will have no reason not to stack the line from this point forth.

    This is awful. I’m drinking myself into a coma tonight.

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  49. mb21

    [quote name=GBTS]Cutler has been a top 5 NFL QB the last month. Forte has been great, but teams will have no reason not to stack the line from this point forth.

    This is awful. I’m drinking myself into a coma tonight.[/quote]That’s might not be such a good idea. You might want to think twice about doing that.

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  51. binky

    [quote name=GBTS]Cutler has been a top 5 NFL QB the last month. Forte has been great, but teams will have no reason not to stack the line from this point forth.

    This is awful. I’m drinking myself into a coma tonight.[/quote]I know. I was trying to be positive, but I think that this is the season for the Bears. It seemed like a slim chance anyway, given that they still haven’t played the Packers twice yet.

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  54. Urk

    [quote name=mb21]Our opinions of “cheating” are going to change dramatically in the years to come. I’m hopeful it happens when this current younger generation grows up and realizes how retarded they are, but that may not happen.

    I don’t know about the rest of you, but if there’s some kind of treatment that would help a batter hit a ball 750 feet, I want to see that. I couldn’t give a shit less about what’s natural. Do. Not. Care.[/quote]
    Right. because he’s more than likely going to hit a ball thrown by someone with part of the tendon from one of their legs in their elbow. How “natural” is that.

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  56. Suburbankid 22

    Sveum already said he wants “a good friend” to be bench coach, so unless he is BFFs with Listach already, Listach, whose name is Listach, may be moved to a base coach position to allow a buddy to replace Listach as bench coach.

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  58. GW

    [quote name=Suburbankid 22]Sveum already said he wants “a good friend” to be bench coach, so unless he is BFFs with Listach already, Listach, whose name is Listach, may be moved to a base coach position to allow a buddy to replace Listach as bench coach.[/quote]
    sveum’s last year with the brewers was 91, so they just missed being teammates there.

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  59. GBTS

    [quote name=mb21]Homeland ———> no longer worth watching[/quote]I haven’t seen it yet, if this is true then my Sundays just got 20 times worse.

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  60. Suburbankid 22

    [quote name=GBTS]I haven’t seen it yet, if this is true then my Sundays just got 20 times worse.[/quote]You’re still conscious?

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  64. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]That’s might not be such a good idea. You might want to think twice about doing that.[/quote]I thought you didn’t care what people put in their body (dying laughing)

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  65. binky

    [quote name=Suburbankid 22]IN
    Jaramillo
    Listach
    Strode

    OUT
    Dernier
    DeJesus

    TBD
    Riggins

    Listach may not be bench coach, however.

    /gordinator[/quote]BUT BOBBY DERNIER WAS IN THE RYNE SANDBERG GAME THIS IS OUTRAGEOUS THEY ARE RUINING CHICAGO BASEBALL!

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  66. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]I thought you didn’t care what people put in their body (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing) good point.

    GBTS, go drink yourself into that coma.

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  73. GBTS

    [quote name=dylanj]9-1[/quote]My buddies and I did a draft at the start of the season, all 32 teams, most combined wins gets the whole pot. I got the 49ers 25th overall. Not too shabby.

    Did you bros like that story?

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  74. binky

    [quote name=GBTS]My buddies and I did a draft at the start of the season, all 32 teams, most combined wins gets the whole pot. I got the 49ers 25th overall. Not too shabby.

    Did you bros like that story?[/quote]No, it sucked.

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  76. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GBTS]My buddies and I did a draft at the start of the season, all 32 teams, most combined wins gets the whole pot. I got the 49ers 25th overall. Not too shabby.

    Did you bros like that story?[/quote]It had the potential to be cool.

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  78. Berselius

    (dying laughing), apparently the Reda and A’s are talking a Yonder Alonso / Andrew Bailey trade. Proven closers FTL

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  79. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius]I can’t believe that person left steroid use off the list.[/quote]That person obviously doesn’t care what people put in their bodies.

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  80. GBTS

    [quote name=Rice Cube]That person obviously doesn’t care what people put in their bodies.[/quote]They are concerned with famine, though.

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  82. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GBTS]They are concerned with famine, though.[/quote]By default, people suffering from a famine cannot put much in their bodies.

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  87. WaLi

    [quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]Well, the vagina is a complicated thing.[/quote]Well, the C.L.I.T. is an offshoot of the L.A.B.I.A., the Liberate Apes Before Imprisoning Apes movement.

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  88. Rice Cube

    [quote name=WaLi]Well, the C.L.I.T. is an offshoot of the L.A.B.I.A., the Liberate Apes Before Imprisoning Apes movement.[/quote]Citizens of Utah! Stimulation of the C.L.I.T. is not recommended!

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  90. Berselius

    [quote name=WaLi]Well, the C.L.I.T. is an offshoot of the L.A.B.I.A., the Liberate Apes Before Imprisoning Apes movement.[/quote]We need to dispatch Alvin to determine who is the CLIT Commander.

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  92. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Mish]http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-good-is-matt-garza/[/quote]Always struck me as goofy that Garza is worth 5 wins on FanGraphs but only 2.9 on B-Ref. Must have been all those runs he gave up because defense sucked while he got BABIPed to death.

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  93. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=dylanj]9-1[/quote]
    I think they lose 2-3 to finish the season.

    Finishing 13-3 would pretty much assure them the No. 2 seed. 12-4 and they might need some help from NO.

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  97. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GBTS]Stocking stuffer: http://shop.mlb.com/product/index.jsp?productId=12374495&partnerId=1SCH33431-120X8H%5B/quote%5DIf SK or someone who knows where the archive went is around, I wonder if the clip where Santo is raging against Theriot is still available. It’d be pretty awesome if it were on this collection. In addition to his other sound bytes, that one was really classic.

    “Aw gee whiz! What is WRONG with this man!?” (dying laughing)

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  99. WaLi

    [quote name=Rice Cube]http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2011/11/21/metaphor-monday-princess-bride-edition/[/quote]I love how the “Pirncess Bride” logo can be read the same way upside down.

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  101. binky

    [quote name=Mish]http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-good-is-matt-garza/[/quote]I was thinking the Garza trade might be a case in point against MB’s admonition that we should evaluate trades when they happen. On the fan side of things, we may not always have all the information. Let’s say on paper, from what we have, we deem the Garza trade a bad move, whereas the Cubs see potential and have done their own analysis and concluded that they can help Garza, or that his skill set will play better at Wrigley than it did at the Trop, or whatever measures they are using that we might not have access to as fans. It could be just a fluke year, like fangraphs pointed out, or it could be that it’s not so bad to re-evaluate trades and try to, if nothing else, reverse-engineer the good and bad that the team might have predicted or missed to see what they were thinking at the time, or if the trade was better than it initially appeared.

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  102. mb21

    I don’t think the Garza trade was a bad one. I didn’t like it at the time because I thought it was unnecessary, but I don’t think it was a bad trade. It’s turned out to be a good trade for the Cubs and Rays fans saying otherwise are delusional. That could be the case down the road, but I’m betting not.

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  106. binky

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t think the Garza trade was a bad one. I didn’t like it at the time because I thought it was unnecessary, but I don’t think it was a bad trade. It’s turned out to be a good trade for the Cubs and Rays fans saying otherwise are delusional. That could be the case down the road, but I’m betting not.[/quote]Okay, bad example, but I’m just pointing out that only narrowing your focus to the time a trade was made may cloud out information that turned out to be relevant. If a guy gets traded for and breaks his leg on a collision in his first spring training game, that’s bad luck and shouldn’t be taken into account. If he blows out his knee and, in fact, was on the verge of doing so thanks to recurrent fascitis or some other aliment he had kept a secret, but would have been detectable by medical means, at the time, then that’s something a team should have taken into consideration. Same way on the positive side. If the organization recognized something that make a player more valuable than their apparent worth, even if they don’t look as good on paper, that comes out later, maybe it’s worth retroactively considering. I would not put “team leadership” or subjective details in that category, but only measurable things that fans might not have known at the time. Scouting reports could well be in the category of things that fans don’t necessarily know that could tip the scales in the teams favor.

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  107. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t think the Garza trade was a bad one. I didn’t like it at the time because I thought it was unnecessary, but I don’t think it was a bad trade. It’s turned out to be a good trade for the Cubs and Rays fans saying otherwise are delusional. That could be the case down the road, but I’m betting not.[/quote]
    A lot of that stemmed from your (and especially my) opinion on Chris Archer and HJL.

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  108. mb21

    Josh, all players traded go through a physical. What I think is important in terms of evaluating a trade after it happens is if a team got more out of the player than before. I don’t think the Cubs or anyone else should pay more for a player who hadn’t reached his potential because some other team was missing something. Think about this in terms of player contracts. A decade ago the A’s were competitive because they were finding players that teams didn’t properly value. They were paying them less money than they were worth. The A’s didn’t see a guy who was a .280/.400/.400 hitter and pay him what they thought market value was for that player. They paid him just a bit more than he was valued by MLB. If there’s something the Rays weren’t doing with Garza, the Cubs shouldn’t pay more because they’re going to do something different.

    As outsiders it’s impossible for us to have all the necessary information to evaluate trades before, during or after. We have only limited information so we have to stick with what we can be reasonably sure a team knew at the time. The Rays didn’t try to trade Garza by telling other teams he could be better if this team did this or that. If that was true, the Rays would have done it and he’d have been more valuable. The Cubs saw a player who could be better and they acquired him as if he was as talented as what the Rays had gotten out of him.

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  109. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]A lot of that stemmed from your (and especially my) opinion on Chris Archer and HJL.[/quote]Those were the only two players of real value in that trade. Brandon Guyer certainly had potential and he was a guy I liked, but I also liked Marquez Smith and he was left unprotected. I’ve also liked Ryan Flaherty and he’s been left unprotected. Archer isn’t all that impressive at this point and while HJL had an awesome season, I’m far from convinced.

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  110. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), Michael Young got a first place vote from someone.[/quote]http://bbwaa.com/

    Michael Young sucked up a lot of the intangibles vote, I’m guessing.

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  111. jtsunami

    [quote name=mb21]Those were the only two players of real value in that trade. Brandon Guyer certainly had potential and he was a guy I liked, but I also liked Marquez Smith and he was left unprotected. I’ve also liked Ryan Flaherty and he’s been left unprotected. Archer isn’t all that impressive at this point and while HJL had an awesome season, I’m far from convinced.[/quote]Why would Flaherty have to be protected? i thought you have to be in the minors for 5 seasons? Flaherty has been for only 4.

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  112. jtsunami

    Fun stat on Vitters, he has improved his OPS by 90+ points each time he got a second chance at a level. I hope he starts at AAA next year. If Marquez Smith isn’t on the 25-man we obviously don’t see him as part of our future. So there’s no point in keeping him instead of progressing Vitters so he can hopefully be ready for 2013 or 2014.

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  113. mb21

    5 seasons for 18 year olds and 4 seasons for college aged players. Flaherty will be eligible in the Rule 5 draft in a couple weeks.

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  115. GW

    [quote name=ACT]http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/11/justin-verlander-wins-mvp-one.html

    The forthcoming explanation had better be a doozy.[/quote]
    (dying laughing). isn’t that the bullpenishuge tweeter?

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  116. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/11/justin-verlander-wins-mvp-one.html

    The forthcoming explanation had better be a doozy.[/quote]Grit + heart + scrap + lack of melanin = MVP

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  117. WaLi

    [quote name=ACT]http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/11/justin-verlander-wins-mvp-one.html

    The forthcoming explanation had better be a doozy.[/quote](dying laughing) @ comments ripping him a new one.

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  118. binky

    I see what you’re saying. Now that I think about it, overpaying for guys you think you can fix would be a really stupid strategy. The A’s example makes sense, you have to look for something that is already there that can help your team, not some hopeful long-term benefit. Those, when they happen, should be gravy.

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  120. binky

    We should have a poll on who should have really one AL MVP. It should read: “Did Jacoby Ellsbury get robbed?” answer choices “yes” and “no” [greyed out]

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  121. binky

    [quote name=WaLi](dying laughing) @ comments ripping him a new one.[/quote]The third comment was that Kinsler was more valuable than MY. MY = 1.5 fWAR, Kinsler = 7.7 fWAR. Maybe he has a point.

    EDIT: 3.8 fWAR for Young, but still, that’s behind Napoli, Beltre, and Kinsler.

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  122. ACT

    [quote name=josh]The third comment was that Kinsler was more valuable than MY. MY = 1.5 fWAR, Kinsler = 7.7 fWAR. Maybe he has a point.

    EDIT: 3.8 fWAR, but still.[/quote]Well, UZR has a margin of error…

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  126. WaLi

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Are we not talking about that crazy Dexter episode last night? I can’t believe they killed Dexter![/quote]Sweet.

    Are they renaming the show to “Days of Miami Metro: A story of love between Lieutenants and their Detectives”

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  128. binky

    [quote name=Mish]http://adamusprime.tumblr.com/niccagehead[/quote]Hey, the snake demon of the apocalypse. Good thing, I was starting to worry I’d have to go into work tomorrow.

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  131. Suburbankid 22

    [quote name=Rice Cube]If SK or someone who knows where the archive went is around, I wonder if the clip where Santo is raging against Theriot is still available. It’d be pretty awesome if it were on this collection. In addition to his other sound bytes, that one was really classic.

    “Aw gee whiz! What is WRONG with this man!?” (dying laughing)[/quote]
    I don’t have access to it right now. I Googled the file name and found the cache of the old audio archive on ACB, but the link doesn’t work anymore.

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:hzl1svg7ukYJ:www.anothercubsblog.org/SK/+santopurerage.mp3&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ie

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  132. ACT

    Embarrassing to vote a guy who hit .338, had 106 RBIs, played three different infield positions and had at least 100 At-bats in 3 key lineup spots MVP

    Not to mention DH! Talk about versatility!

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  135. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Suburbankid 22]I don’t have access to it right now. I Googled the file name and found the cache of the old audio archive on ACB, but the link doesn’t work anymore.

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:hzl1svg7ukYJ:www.anothercubsblog.org/SK/+santopurerage.mp3&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ie%5B/quote%5D
    I hope that it’s available on MLB.tv or thereabouts. I would hate for that bit of Santo awesomeness to be lost forever.

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  138. Suburbankid 22

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I hope that it’s available on MLB.tv or thereabouts. I would hate for that bit of Santo awesomeness to be lost forever.[/quote]Oh I still have it on another machine. It’s on my phone too. If I had the right cable, I’d post it now.

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  139. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Suburbankid 22]Oh I still have it on another machine. It’s on my phone too. If I had the right cable, I’d post it now.[/quote]Cool…no rush, that clip always made me chuckle though.

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  140. Suburbankid 22

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Cool…no rush, that clip always made me chuckle though.[/quote]It was like three years of bottled up frustration at Theriot’s baserunning exploding all at once. It provided a major release for both Ron and myself (dying laughing)

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  142. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Suburbankid 22]It was like three years of bottled up frustration at Theriot’s baserunning exploding all at once. It provided a major release for both Ron and myself (dying laughing)[/quote]
    Methinks if one can find the video of Theriot getting picked off and overlay Pat and Ron’s reaction over that, it would be an epic win.

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  145. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Joe Nathan ———-> New Rangers closer
    Neftali Feliz ———-> Texas starting rotation[/quote]Headline in June ———-> Feliz to become Nathan’s set-up man

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  147. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GBTS]http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_mvp_voting_young_mcmillan_verlander_112111

    (dying laughing)[/quote]Michael Young’s MVP standing was too damn high.

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  149. Suburbankid 22

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Methinks if one can find the video of Theriot getting picked off and overlay Pat and Ron’s reaction over that, it would be an epic win.[/quote]What’s makes you think I haven’t got better things to do?

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  151. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=ACT]Joe Nathan ———-> New Rangers closer
    Neftali Feliz ———-> Texas starting rotation[/quote]

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  153. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Suburbankid 22]What’s makes you think I haven’t got better things to do?[/quote]Don’t tell me what to not tell you to do.

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  160. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/22/the-cubs-will-shop-matt-garza/

    Matt Garza —> for sale[/quote]I’ll give you $25 for him.

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  163. pvvjii

    your website is fonderful.I Mongolian.I live in Ulaanbaatar.It is in Mongolia capital.I’m 21years old.I’m student.Wish for I’m trying your city.If how do I forwarding unfamiliar.Wish for I’m study your in city.I have small money.With I study by scholarship.Pleace help me.pleace writing my email adress.I’m sorry faulty writed.I know little English.See your again.temporary bye.

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  164. WaLi

    [quote name=Rice Cube]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/22/the-cubs-will-shop-matt-garza/

    Matt Garza —> for sale[/quote]Didn’t the Superfriends say they would listen to offers on anyone? If we are going to completely rebuild, which it looks like this is the way it will be if we get rid of one of our best pitchers on an already depleted pitching staff, then 2012 is definitely out, and probably 2013. So maybe 2014 we’ll be competing. Will Cub Nation be able to handle that?

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  165. Rice Cube

    [quote name=WaLi]Didn’t the Superfriends say they would listen to offers on anyone? If we are going to completely rebuild, which it looks like this is the way it will be if we get rid of one of our best pitchers on an already depleted pitching staff, then 2012 is definitely out, and probably 2013. So maybe 2014 we’ll be competing. Will Cub Nation be able to handle that?[/quote]Probably not, but if this is the realistic plan being pitched to Ricketts, and Ricketts is that patient, I don’t see anyone getting fired because of it if the team continues to make strides behind the scenes.

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  166. ACT

    I don’t see the news there. Of course they’ll be willing to move Garza for the right offer. They should listen to offers for any player, including Castro. That doesn’t mean that moving him is at all likely.

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  167. binky

    [quote name=WaLi]Didn’t the Superfriends say they would listen to offers on anyone? If we are going to completely rebuild, which it looks like this is the way it will be if we get rid of one of our best pitchers on an already depleted pitching staff, then 2012 is definitely out, and probably 2013. So maybe 2014 we’ll be competing. Will Cub Nation be able to handle that?[/quote]I think they’re motivated by the fact that there aren’t a lot of starting pitchers out there. So they can get a higher return than normal for him. They may feel like they can cover the rotation without him, or they may be eying some cheaper alternatives.

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  170. binky

    [quote name=ACT]I don’t see the news there. Of course they’ll be willing to move Garza for the right offer. They should listen to offers for any player, including Castro. That doesn’t mean that moving him is at all likely.[/quote]Castro seems much less likely. The team would be bidding based on one season and hype. It seems very unlikely they get a decent offer. On the other hand, a team may want a solid SP enough to give more than is prudent.

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  171. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]I don’t see the news there. Of course they’ll be willing to move Garza for the right offer. They should listen to offers for any player, including Castro. That doesn’t mean that moving him is at all likely.[/quote]I think by releasing this note it might encourage teams on the cusp to make more daring offers? *shrug*

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  172. WaLi

    [quote name=josh]I think they’re motivated by the fact that there aren’t a lot of starting pitchers out there. So they can get a higher return than normal for him. They may feel like they can cover the rotation without him, or they may be eying some cheaper alternatives.[/quote]I don’t think it is a coincidence that this news comes out after Zambrano took one to the face for his team. Garza gone –> Zambrano coming back due to showing grit and determination.

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  173. binky

    [quote name=pvvjii]your website is fonderful.I Mongolian.I live in Ulaanbaatar.It is in Mongolia capital.I’m 21years old.I’m student.Wish for I’m trying your city.If how do I forwarding unfamiliar.Wish for I’m study your in city.I have small money.With I study by scholarship.Pleace help me.pleace writing my email adress.I’m sorry faulty writed.I know little English.See your again.temporary bye.[/quote]I knew a Mongolian guy when I lived in Chicago. Nice guy. Never wore a hat, even in the middle of winter.

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  174. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]I knew a Mongolian guy when I lived in Chicago. Nice guy. Never wore a hat, even in the middle of winter.[/quote]
    Mongolian BBQ is awesome.

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  175. Rice Cube

    [quote name=WaLi]I don’t think it is a coincidence that this news comes out after Zambrano took one to the face for his team. Garza gone –> Zambrano coming back due to showing grit and determination.[/quote]Garza is going to still be relatively inexpensive with arbitration so I think this is just fishing for offers. I’m actually curious to see what teams will throw out there.

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  178. Suburbankid 22

    [quote name=WaLi]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/22/man-arrested-for-breaking-into-white-sox-gms-house-drank-his-beer-and-wore-his-world-series-ring/

    RC, what were you doing the other night?[/quote]

    defrosting a lobster

    (dying laughing)

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  182. Berselius

    [quote name=WaLi]Didn’t the Superfriends say they would listen to offers on anyone? If we are going to completely rebuild, which it looks like this is the way it will be if we get rid of one of our best pitchers on an already depleted pitching staff, then 2012 is definitely out, and probably 2013. So maybe 2014 we’ll be competing. Will Cub Nation be able to handle that?[/quote]
    The Hall of Justice should just leak that Matt Garza had dinner once last season. The masses would turn on him instantly.

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  183. Berselius

    [quote name=josh]I knew a Mongolian guy when I lived in Chicago. Nice guy. Never wore a hat, even in the middle of winter.[/quote]
    Call him and ask if he knows this guy. Every member of an ethnic group knows every other member, right?

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  184. Berselius

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Urban Meyer —> A Ohio State University[/quote]
    I can’t wait until he retires in 2013 then unretires in 2014.

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  185. Aisle424

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Mongolian BBQ is awesome.[/quote]
    I think they are supposed to be referred to as “intellectually challenged” now.

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  186. Aisle424

    [quote name=Berselius]The Hall of Justice should just leak that Matt Garza had dinner once last season. The masses would turn on him instantly.[/quote]The Cubs under Theo are decidedly Pro-dinner. As far as I can tell this is the biggest observable change that has occurred so far.

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  187. binky

    [quote name=Berselius]Call him and ask if he knows this guy. Every member of an ethnic group knows every other member, right?[/quote]As far as I know, yes.

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  190. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=josh]I knew a Mongoloid when I lived in Chicago. Nice guy. Never wore a hat, even in the middle of winter.[/quote].

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  192. Suburbankid 22

    [quote name=Berselius]Call him and ask if he knows this guy. Every member of an ethnic group knows every other member, right?[/quote]
    Pretty much.

    Facebook’s research department (and some Italian stat nerds) says that there are now only four degrees of separation, but within countries or smaller communities, it’s more like two degrees.

    https://www.facebook.com/notes/facebook-data-team/anatomy-of-facebook/10150388519243859

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  195. binky

    [quote name=Suburbankid 22]Pretty much.

    Facebook’s research department (and some Italian stat nerds) says that there are now only four degrees of separation, but within countries or smaller communities, it’s more like two degrees.

    https://www.facebook.com/notes/facebook-data-team/anatomy-of-facebook/10150388519243859%5B/quote%5DMongolia is a relatively small country. The best part was when he was explaining to me where he was from and I wasn’t getting it because of his accent. Finally he just said “Ghengis Kahn!”

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  197. WaLi

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Additional CBA details:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/cba-details-luxury-tax-draft-.html%5B/quote%5DGood stuff.

    Blood testing for HGH will not be occur during the season without reasonable suspicion, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports (on Twitter). ESPN’s Buster Olney says (on Twitter) that offseason testing will begin next winter, 2012-2013.

    Olney also mentions that players will be tested in Spring Training “to determine energy levels” after testing, then the results will be discarded. The two sides will then determine how to proceed (all Twitter links).

    Kind of sounds like they don’t really have much of a plan for the HGH test or how effective it will be yet, just know they will do it.

    Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (on Twitter) that instant replay will be expanded to include fair/foul plays and “trap” plays, subject to discussions between MLB and the umpires.

    Why not include safe/out plays on the bases? Oh well, a little more replay should be a good thing.

    Plus, the Astros will move to the American League in 2013 and each league will introduce a new Wild Card team. The new playoff structure will begin in 2012, reports Olney (on Twitter).

    Still have to endure another year of unbalanced leagues.

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  198. mb21

    Don’t know if it’s been said, but the international scouting director for the Red Sox quit. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him join the Cubs.

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  199. mb21

    [quote name=josh]I’m disappointed that Sveum hasn’t yet joined the Superfriends collage. What does he have to do, win a World Series?[/quote]Aisle424 has been the one adding the pictures to that and he’s been busy and probably will be through the end of the week considering it’s Thanksgiving. I’m going to try to put together a couple articles later today that I can publish tomorrow and then again on Thursday. I won’t be around much either.

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  200. Rice Cube

    Dustin (Chicago)

    Who do you see the cubs hiring as Pitching coach/Bench coach?

    Bruce Levine (1:16 PM)

    Chris Boscio and Ed Sedar are possibilities. Boscio is the former pitching coach in Seattle and Sedar is a major league coach with the Brewers.

    I don’t know much about these guys.

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  202. JMan

    [quote name=mb21]Don’t know if it’s been said, but the international scouting director for the Red Sox quit. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him join the Cubs.[/quote]Is that Craig Shipley?

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  205. Berselius

    Teams in the ten smallest markets and with the ten lowest revenues will enter a lottery for six additional first and second round picks, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times

    Teams that don’t exceed their draft spending limit will have a chance to obtain picks from teams that over-spent, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com

    Ick to both of these.

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  207. dylanj

    im actually stunned here. 2.9 mill per team for int’l signings? Plus the penalties for going over are very very harsh. We just lost a huge advantage

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  208. Rice Cube

    [quote name=dylanj]im actually stunned here. 2.9 mill per team for int’l signings? Plus the penalties for going over are very very harsh. We just lost a huge advantage[/quote]Sounds like a prelude to an international draft.

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  212. binky

    [quote name=mb21]Aisle424 has been the one adding the pictures to that and he’s been busy and probably will be through the end of the week considering it’s Thanksgiving. I’m going to try to put together a couple articles later today that I can publish tomorrow and then again on Thursday. I won’t be around much either.[/quote]Totally unacceptable. This blog is getting a warning. I may have to report you to the BBB.

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  214. binky

    [quote name=dylanj]so with this new draft process the advantage the cubs would have had in draft & int’l spending is gone. Figures[/quote]They’ll just have to figure out how to evaluate talent better.

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  215. WaLi

    [quote name=Berselius]Ick to both of these.[/quote]Especially the latter. So teams that don’t spend as much money as they could get helped more?

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  216. mb21

    [quote name=dylanj]College Baseball has to be rejoicing right now[/quote]Why? If the NBA and NFL didn’t have an age restriction the best players at that age would enter those leagues for whatever money they could get. In the past top junior baseball players would want boatloads of money, but now that’s not possible. So they can either risk injury with another year and get the same amount of money they’d have gotten a year before or take the smaller amount.

    The 38th round picks who have committed to a college will, as they do now, go to college to increase their value. If anything, this hurts college baseball. Without boatloads of cash waiting for them, players that currently stick around for another year will just accept the money they get and sign.

    I’d also add that nobody wants to be a 4-year college player in baseball. They’re 22 years old at that point and they just don’t have that much value. There’s a reason there are so few 4-year college players playing baseball: teams won’t give them much money and in order to get more money they have to come out before they complete 4 years. That’s not going to change.

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  219. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Ick to both of these.[/quote]I’m OK with it. Gone are the days that Tampa Bay gets 47 out of the first 48 picks. Good. There’s no reason that a cheap ass team that isn’t even willing to sign its own players should get that many draft picks. That wasn’t what the compensation system was designed to do and teams can thank the A’s and Rays for there no longer being any compensation picks. Those teams can look in the mirror when they realize they now suck again compared to the large market teams.

    I’m disappointed teams can’t trade draft picks.

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  220. mb21

    What I read yesterday was that it was just the first 10 rounds of the draft regarding penalties. Is that not correct? If it is, all it means is that there are more guys like Dillon Maples each year.

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  222. dylanj

    i dont think you’re realizing just how bad these changes are yet MD. Its a major blow. But its a death sentence for teams like KC and Pittsburgh.

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  223. mb21

    A good step in the right direction with the MLB active roster being expanded to 26 during doubleheaders. It needs to be 26 or 27 for every game.

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  224. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]What I read yesterday was that it was just the first 10 rounds of the draft regarding penalties. Is that not correct? If it is, all it means is that there are more guys like Dillon Maples each year.[/quote]They did not specify in the MLBTR articles nor the press conference but maybe I just missed it.

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  228. mb21

    [quote name=dylanj]i dont think you’re realizing just how bad these changes are yet MD. Its a major blow. But its a death sentence for teams like KC and Pittsburgh.[/quote]If it’s a death sentence for the small market teams, that benefits the large market teams. If it hurts Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Tampa Bay, it benefits the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox and Mets.

    Regarding the draft, very little will change with regards to college baseball. In years past a potential 3rd round pick would go to a junior college and see if he could be a 1st round pick the next year. That’s still going to happen. The 38th round picks will also go to college. They did before and they will now. The 1st round picks sign at a much higher rate than before. What possible reason could they have to go back to college? Scott Boras can’t convince his 18 year old clients who are first round picks that there is more money waiting for them down the road. There isn’t any more money and they risk injury.

    Most importantly, the number of 4-year senior baseball players will be the same as it is now because the only guys who go 4 years are the ones who aren’t very good (there are exceptions of course, but generally this is true).

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  230. binky

    [quote name=dylanj]i dont think you’re realizing just how bad these changes are yet MD. Its a major blow. But its a death sentence for teams like KC and Pittsburgh.[/quote]They’ll have to be a lot more careful about who they pick to draft, and go all in on a smaller number of players. Could this have the result of lowering the expectations for amateurs entering MLB and in a few years even out? I mean, a big market team doesn’t necessarily want to lose draft picks either.

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  234. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Ryan Braun —> Most Valuable Lemur[/quote]I guess I’m actually surprised it didn’t go to Kemp. Being on a losing team must have cost him. A good hitter and a decent centerfielder, seems like that’s more valuable than a slugging left fielder with questionable defense. It’s cool, though, I really don’t care when you get down to it.

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  237. binky

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Anyone think it makes more sense to go after a fielder or pujols now?

    Bubbles is mad[/quote]Maybe, but then the same would be true for everyone else too.

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  238. bubblesdachimp

    Well it seems at this point the only advantage to being a big market team is the ability to spend in free agency. So it would seem that that would be the smart thing to do

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  239. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Bleacher Nation confirms the top 10 rounds thing:

    http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/11/22/the-new-cba-is-announced-draft-free-agency-hgh-testing-instant-replay-among-the-notable-changes/%5B/quote%5DThen there aren’t any changes at all. Much is being made about nothing. The Cubs can still outspend other teams without giving up draft picks. Expect more top players to fall to the 11th round and later. Ace brings up Bubba Starling and that’s a good point though I remember seeing a list of guys similar to Starling and the list wasn’t all that impressive. Besides, Starling will now be drafted in the 11th round and given an obscene bonus.

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  241. dylanj

    Kevin_Goldstein Kevin Goldstein
    Any six figure bonus after counts as well. RT @alex_is_reading: @Kevin_Goldstein does this just affect 1st 10 rounds?

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  244. bubblesdachimp

    [quote name=mb21]Then there aren’t any changes at all. Much is being made about nothing. The Cubs can still outspend other teams without giving up draft picks. Expect more top players to fall to the 11th round and later. Ace brings up Bubba Starling and that’s a good point though I remember seeing a list of guys similar to Starling and the list wasn’t all that impressive. Besides, Starling will now be drafted in the 11th round and given an obscene bonus.[/quote]
    I did not get that impression at all

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  245. mb21

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Well it seems at this point the only advantage to being a big market team is the ability to spend in free agency. So it would seem that that would be the smart thing to do[/quote]How can this hurt the small market teams and hurt the big market teams? It can’t hurt one and not be a benefit to the other.

    The new system eliminates any chance of the Rays having 50 first round draft picks. It does not eliminate their ability to spend money in the draft (I expect we’ll see a huge increase to the amount of money spent after the first 10 rounds).

    I’d much prefer there be no draft. These guys are adults and can choose to work for who they want for how much money they want. I’d also prefer if players are not added to the 40-man roster after 3 years they become unrestricted free agents. The current system actually allows a team to control the rights of the player for over a decade. Take Josh Vitters as an example. He was drafted at the age of 17. He didn’t have to be protected until now. He has already spent 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 under club control. He now has 3 options before he has to be on the 25-man roster or be eligible for free agency. He feasibly could sit in the minors in 2012, 2013 and 2014. By 2015 he would have to be on the 25-man roster. 8 years after being drafted he finally is now starting his service time clock. He’d make league minimum in 2015, 2016 and 2017 and be arbitration eligible in 2018, 2019 and 2020. He’d then be a free agent and could pick a team of his own choosing to play for during the 2021 season. That’s only 14 years after being drafted.

    That’s ridiculous. It’s very possible that Josh Vitters may not be able to choose a team he wants to work for at a competitive salary until he is past his prime. Unbelievable.

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  246. binky

    [quote name=dylanj]Kevin_Goldstein Kevin Goldstein
    Any six figure bonus after counts as well. RT @alex_is_reading: @Kevin_Goldstein does this just affect 1st 10 rounds?[/quote]So, in this case, do they retroactively remove your top 1 pick and that guy just gets skipped? Or do you lose your #1 pick for the next draft?

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  247. mb21

    [quote name=dylanj]Goldstein says that ANY 6 figure bonus counts regardless if its top 10 rounds or not[/quote]That kind of sucks, but like GW points out, this is nothing new. The veterans have been fucking over the young guys for over a century. No reason to think it wouldn’t continue.

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  248. mb21

    [quote name=josh]So, in this case, do they retroactively remove your top 1 pick and that guy just gets skipped? Or do you lose your #1 pick for the next draft?[/quote]It would be the next draft.

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  249. mb21

    If a guy like Strasburg comes along teams will go ahead and pay the penalty, which is kind of too bad since the Nats got him and Harper in consecutive years. That won’t happen now.

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  250. mb21

    Ace’s point about Starling playing at Nebraska is a really good one, but I’d like to see information about how well these guys who give up football actually do. I’m not convinced it makes much of any impact. I’m also not convinced that Starling wouldn’t have signed for $3 million or whatever the slot was. He wanted $7 million or more because the system allowed it. Is an 18-year old kid going to turn down $3 million to go to college to pursue football? I don’t think so. My guess is that Starling still signs with the Royals. He just took advantage of a system that allowed him to get that extra money.

    That being said, the system was and is fucked up for the reasons I already mentioned.

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  251. bubblesdachimp

    Kevin_Goldstein Kevin Goldstein
    So basically, if you find an international guy, he has to register, sharing his name with everyone. Great.

    I dont nkow why we would build Dominican academy anymore

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  252. Rice Cube

    This is going to be somewhat of a longshot, but what’s to prevent a team who is hungry for alternative talent and has the resources to do it from sponsoring kids to come to school in North America and then entering the draft as American athletes rather than dealing with that foreign signings cap?

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  253. binky

    [quote name=mb21]How can this hurt the small market teams and hurt the big market teams? It can’t hurt one and not be a benefit to the other.

    The new system eliminates any chance of the Rays having 50 first round draft picks. It does not eliminate their ability to spend money in the draft (I expect we’ll see a huge increase to the amount of money spent after the first 10 rounds).

    I’d much prefer there be no draft. These guys are adults and can choose to work for who they want for how much money they want. I’d also prefer if players are not added to the 40-man roster after 3 years they become unrestricted free agents. The current system actually allows a team to control the rights of the player for over a decade. Take Josh Vitters as an example. He was drafted at the age of 17. He didn’t have to be protected until now. He has already spent 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 under club control. He now has 3 options before he has to be on the 25-man roster or be eligible for free agency. He feasibly could sit in the minors in 2012, 2013 and 2014. By 2015 he would have to be on the 25-man roster. 8 years after being drafted he finally is now starting his service time clock. He’d make league minimum in 2015, 2016 and 2017 and be arbitration eligible in 2018, 2019 and 2020. He’d then be a free agent and could pick a team of his own choosing to play for during the 2021 season. That’s only 14 years after being drafted.

    That’s ridiculous. It’s very possible that Josh Vitters may not be able to choose a team he wants to work for at a competitive salary until he is past his prime. Unbelievable.[/quote]But if Vitters were good enough, he’d be on the team, right? Teams have shown they don’t delay a guy too much if he’s good.

    I think the shorter timeframe is a good idea. Force teams to pick guys that can be impact players right away. Guys who can’t cut it can go play in independent leagues.

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  254. mb21

    They’re placing limitations on the use of chewing tobacco? Did they also decide where on the body it is acceptable to get a tattoo? (dying laughing)

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  255. Rice Cube

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Kevin_Goldstein Kevin Goldstein
    So basically, if you find an international guy, he has to register, sharing his name with everyone. Great.

    I dont nkow why we would build Dominican academy anymore[/quote]Never mind that last idea then.

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  256. GW

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Kevin_Goldstein Kevin Goldstein
    So basically, if you find an international guy, he has to register, sharing his name with everyone. Great.

    I dont nkow why we would build Dominican academy anymore[/quote]
    now would be the time for independent 23 and under leagues to sprout.

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  260. mb21

    [quote name=josh]But if Vitters were good enough, he’d be on the team, right? Teams have shown they don’t delay a guy too much if he’s good.

    I think the shorter timeframe is a good idea. Force teams to pick guys that can be impact players right away. Guys who can’t cut it can go play in independent leagues.[/quote]Yeah, if he were good enough that wouldn’t happen, but the fact it can has always bothered me. In order to see if such a system is acceptable we have to look at how long a guy could theoretically be under club control. If they’re not going to do away with the draft and allow players to sign where they want for whatever they want, something needs to change. No player drafted should be able to be under club control longer than 6 years after being drafted in my opinion. If a 22-year old is drafted he can still sign a contract in his prime. That, in my opinion, should be the goal. But as was already pointed out, the MLB players are going to continue to sell the young guys out in order to make more at the big league level. That sucks, which is yet another reason they need to do away with the draft.

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  261. binky

    [quote name=mb21]Yeah, if he were good enough that wouldn’t happen, but the fact it can has always bothered me. In order to see if such a system is acceptable we have to look at how long a guy could theoretically be under club control. If they’re not going to do away with the draft and allow players to sign where they want for whatever they want, something needs to change. No player drafted should be able to be under club control longer than 6 years after being drafted in my opinion. If a 22-year old is drafted he can still sign a contract in his prime. That, in my opinion, should be the goal. But as was already pointed out, the MLB players are going to continue to sell the young guys out in order to make more at the big league level. That sucks, which is yet another reason they need to do away with the draft.[/quote]But if that’s true, then the owners and veterans both benefit, and the young guys don’t have any bargaining power.

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  263. bubblesdachimp

    ProspectInsider Jason A. Churchill
    After round 10, those bonuses WILL count against the bonus cap for a team if it exceeds $100,000.

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  264. binky

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]I just dont get it.. I dont get it.

    What a kick in the nuts[/quote]They all agreed to it. Every team and everyone who voted for it obviously thinks that they come out ahead. I don’t know. It’s weird, but there are probably already planning sessions on how to exploit it to greatest advantage for all 30 teams.

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  265. bubblesdachimp

    [quote name=josh]They all agreed to it. Every team and everyone who voted for it obviously thinks that they come out ahead. I don’t know. It’s weird, but there are probably already planning sessions on how to exploit it to greatest advantage for all 30 teams.[/quote]
    Yea. This is probably true… I wonder how much Ricketts knew would be in the new CBA when he was interviewing people. I assume he asked Theo for a vision to exploit it

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  266. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I’m OK with it. Gone are the days that Tampa Bay gets 47 out of the first 48 picks. Good. There’s no reason that a cheap ass team that isn’t even willing to sign its own players should get that many draft picks. That wasn’t what the compensation system was designed to do and teams can thank the A’s and Rays for there no longer being any compensation picks. Those teams can look in the mirror when they realize they now suck again compared to the large market teams.

    I’m disappointed teams can’t trade draft picks.[/quote]
    This is what I was unhappy about. They can’t trade picks, but my read on this is that they can overspend one year and then are required to sell off that overflow in the next draft to other teams. Too much complication for something that can be solved simply.

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  267. binky

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Yea. This is probably true… I wonder how much Ricketts knew would be in the new CBA when he was interviewing people. I assume he asked Theo for a vision to exploit it[/quote]Could be this was Rickets motivation to spend big in the draft this year too, if he saw the writing on the wall.

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  268. Rice Cube

    Cubans under 23 years old with less than three years of professional experience will be considered amateurs and count against international spending limits, according to Passan (on Twitter). 26-year-old Yoenis Cespedes won’t be subject to these limits.

    At least they can still throw money at Cespedes if they wanted to.

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  269. binky

    [quote name=Berselius]This is what I was unhappy about. They can’t trade picks, but my read on this is that they can overspend one year and then are required to sell off that overflow in the next draft to other teams. Too much complication for something that can be solved simply.[/quote]Aren’t elaborate, complex rules that no one understands the hallmark of baseball?

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  270. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]Aren’t elaborate, complex rules that no one understands the hallmark of baseball?[/quote]So this provision in the CBA is like the legal version of the “balk”?

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  271. Berselius

    [quote name=GW]now would be the time for independent 23 and under leagues to sprout.[/quote]
    Don’t the minors pretty much need the big league clubs financial support to stay afloat? I know there are independent leagues but the IIRC the quality of competition is worthless.

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  272. Berselius

    [quote name=Rice Cube]This is going to be somewhat of a longshot, but what’s to prevent a team who is hungry for alternative talent and has the resources to do it from sponsoring kids to come to school in North America and then entering the draft as American athletes rather than dealing with that foreign signings cap?[/quote]
    American athlete = citizenship, which is a pain in the ass to get if you weren’t born here.

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  273. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius]American athlete = citizenship, which is a pain in the ass to get if you weren’t born here.[/quote]Tell me about it…but I meant to have the kids grow up with tougher competition and enter the draft from a North American institution, although I wasn’t sure if you needed citizenship or a visa for that. Was that what you meant?

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  274. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]This guy hits the nail on the head: http://pittsburgh.sbnation.com/pittsburgh-pirates/2011/11/22/2580836/mlb-collective-bargaining-agreement-draft-pirates

    The small market teams are more fucked now than they were yesterday.[/quote]
    Eh, I think that’s overstating it a bit. It’s not like overspending on the draft is something that can only be done by small market teams. There was nothing stopping the Yankees or the Cubs (as we saw this year) from overspending on talent before.

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  275. Berselius

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Tell me about it…but I meant to have the kids grow up with tougher competition and enter the draft from a North American institution, although I wasn’t sure if you needed citizenship or a visa for that. Was that what you meant?[/quote]
    I’m pretty sure the divider for the international draft is citizenship.

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  276. binky

    [quote name=Berselius]Don’t the minors pretty much need the big league clubs financial support to stay afloat? I know there are independent leagues but the IIRC the quality of competition is worthless.[/quote]That’s probably the case. There are fans for minor league and independent leagues, but no matter what the diehards say about “purity of the game” I suspect most of the draw is seeing future MLB stars. Just my experience.

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  277. Berselius

    The changes in FA compensation removing the chance for small market teams to get rent-a-players for their picks hurts them a lot more, though that inefficiency has been ironed out of late.

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  278. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius]I’m pretty sure the divider for the international draft is citizenship.[/quote]I’m guessing that’s a loophole that Theo can exploit somehow.

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  279. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I’m guessing that’s a loophole that Theo can exploit somehow.[/quote]Theo will run for president on the platform of making the Dominican a US territory.

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  280. Berselius

    [quote name=josh]Theo will run for president on the platform of making the Dominican a US territory.[/quote]
    They just need to buy the entire island for the Cubs franchise. Half of the island can sure use the money.

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  281. binky

    [quote name=Berselius]They just need to buy the entire island for the Cubs franchise. Half of the island can sure use the money.[/quote]The Chicago Cubs of the Dominican Republic.

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  282. bubblesdachimp

    darrenrovell darren rovell
    Bodog: Will a former All-Star test positive for HGH in the 2012-2013 MLB season? YES is 5/1.

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  283. GW

    [quote name=Berselius]Don’t the minors pretty much need the big league clubs financial support to stay afloat? I know there are independent leagues but the IIRC the quality of competition is worthless.[/quote]
    as they are, sure. (although I don’t think that is set in stone. i mean, affiliated leagues have absolutely no control of their product or desire to compete on the field. who wants to pay to watch that? nonetheless, they drive independent leagues out of the market because prospects will always take the big bonuses to eventually play for major league teams).

    i could see a model analogous to soccer springing up where international leagues make their money on teams buying out their players after 23. say an independent dominican, venezuelan, or japanese league pays their players in the neighborhood of 20-100k per year with the expectation that they get a cut when players hit 23 and are eligible for the bigger free agent bonuses. i could see some top talent opting to avoid signing initially when the $ pool is limited for the chance at big money later after age 23. it might have legs…

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  284. GW

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]darrenrovell darren rovell
    Bodog: Will a former All-Star test positive for HGH in the 2012-2013 MLB season? YES is 5/1.[/quote]
    the olympics only caught one guy… i’m guessing he shot up the morning of the test. i think they are blowing smoke with the vaunted new testing procedures.

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  286. Rice Cube

    Two things that are still not clear…

    Does Type B position player compensation still exist this offseason? If so the Cubs can get draft pick for Ramirez (and maybe Pena?)

    Do they have to offer Ramirez arbitration or did the Cubs picking up his option and him declining it already cover that?

    In addition, still wondering if they offer Pena arbitration before tomorrow.

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  287. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Two things that are still not clear…

    Is dylanj a faget?

    Is bubbles a faget?

    In addition, still wondering if they are fagets together.[/quote].

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  288. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Eh, I think that’s overstating it a bit. It’s not like overspending on the draft is something that can only be done by small market teams. There was nothing stopping the Yankees or the Cubs (as we saw this year) from overspending on talent before.[/quote]Nothing stopping those teams, but they’re more likely to invest heavily at the MLB level than the smaller market teams. That’s especially true when a team is a contender.

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  289. mb21

    Minor league teams do pretty well financially. Some do very well and I’d bet that a few of them, maybe even 8 or 9 make more than some of the smaller market MLB teams do.

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  290. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]Minor league teams do pretty well financially. Some do very well and I’d bet that a few of them, maybe even 8 or 9 make more than some of the smaller market MLB teams do.[/quote]
    How much control do their parent clubs have? Who pays the players’ salaries?

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  291. Berselius

    I know minor league players don’t make very much, but given what we see from unprofitable NCAA baseball programs you’d think it would be very difficult to turn a profit for a minor league team when you factor in equipment, travel, etc. Ticket prices are crazy cheap too.

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  292. mb21

    An Indy League like GW is suggesting wouldn’t work. If you paid those players like he is suggesting tickets would cost considerably more than they do at most minor league ballparks. The reason some of them do very well is that they sell so many tickets because it’s cheap. The MLB teams are covering the salaries so their operating expenses are very low.

    MLB owners were smart. They understood there would at some point be interest in an indy league and they did away with any chance of that by covering most of the expenses for MiLB teams.

    I think the best thing to compare an MiLB team to is a busy strip club. The dancers are paid little (or nothing) other than tips. The club gets a bunch of horny males to come in and throw money at the chicks while paying for expensive drinks all night long. The cover charge isn’t usually that high, but the cover itself runs the place.

    I’m just waiting for an MiLB team to become a strip club. Then they’d make more money than any MLB team. (dying laughing)

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  293. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]How much control do their parent clubs have? Who pays the players’ salaries?[/quote]MLB teams pay the salary. To my knowledge most teams only count the 40-man roster salaries on their payroll budgets and the rest is thrown in with the annual expenses teams are willing to spend on minor league talent.

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  294. binky

    [quote name=Berselius]I know minor league players don’t make very much, but given what we see from unprofitable NCAA baseball programs you’d think it would be very difficult to turn a profit for a minor league team when you factor in equipment, travel, etc. Ticket prices are crazy cheap too.[/quote]There are different arrangements, depending on the team. I still think MiLB teams benefit greatly from name recognition (an affiliate of the New York Yankees! is a nice thing to put outside your park), even if there are no other financial benefits. A few teams are owned directly by the organization, but most are more like contractors.

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  295. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]I know minor league players don’t make very much, but given what we see from unprofitable NCAA baseball programs you’d think it would be very difficult to turn a profit for a minor league team when you factor in equipment, travel, etc. Ticket prices are crazy cheap too.[/quote]If you have about 70 home games and sell 10,000 seats per game as some of them do, that’s a lot of money even if the average ticket is $10. Some of the seats are always dirt cheap, but the ones with new stadiums have tiered pricing similar to MLB teams. Some of them even have luxury boxes. Then there’s the advertising. All that money goes to the MiLB team.

    The MLB team pays the salaries while the MiLB team collects a cover and advertising revenue. I’m not sure who covers the cost of travel. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s either one. Maybe a combination.

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  296. binky

    [quote name=mb21]MLB teams pay the salary. To my knowledge most teams only count the 40-man roster salaries on their payroll budgets and the rest is thrown in with the annual expenses teams are willing to spend on minor league talent.[/quote]That’s a good point, too. Salaries would be ultra low in an independent league, and ticket prices would increase steadily. They wouldn’t be able to compete in terms of talent. The only draw would be CLOSER and A LITTLE CHEAPER, but with some pretty substantial caveats. One team’s star player would be a 40-year old Micah Hoffpauier, for example.

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  297. binky

    [quote name=mb21]If you have about 70 home games and sell 10,000 seats per game as some of them do, that’s a lot of money even if the average ticket is $10. Some of the seats are always dirt cheap, but the ones with new stadiums have tiered pricing similar to MLB teams. Some of them even have luxury boxes. Then there’s the advertising. All that money goes to the MiLB team.

    The MLB team pays the salaries while the MiLB team collects a cover and advertising revenue. I’m not sure who covers the cost of travel. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s either one. Maybe a combination.[/quote]I want to say some MiLB teams even pay up, like they pay franchise dues to the MLB club. I could be wrong there.

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  298. Berselius

    I guessing the MLB teams pay for the on-field guys (players, coaches) and the medicals, the minor league franchise takes care of everything else like equipment and travel

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  299. mb21

    [quote name=josh]That’s a good point, too. Salaries would be ultra low in an independent league, and ticket prices would increase steadily. They wouldn’t be able to compete in terms of talent. The only draw would be CLOSER and A LITTLE CHEAPER, but with some pretty substantial caveats. One team’s star player would be a 40-year old Micah Hoffpauier, for example.[/quote]Salaries for unwanted players would really low in an indy league, but for the type of league that GW was talking about would not at all be low. Where do you put those teams? If you’re paying players that much money, putting a team in the Quad Cities won’t work. You’d have to put the teams in large markets and there’s not a chance in hell that MLB teams are going to allow that. Whether they should be allowed to do it is another issue.

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  300. mb21

    [quote name=josh]I want to say some MiLB teams even pay up, like they pay franchise dues to the MLB club. I could be wrong there.[/quote]I doubt that. I seem to remember reading once that the average expenses for an MiLB team in a full season league was under $2 million.

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  301. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]I guessing the MLB teams pay for the on-field guys (players, coaches) and the medicals, the minor league franchise takes care of everything else like equipment and travel[/quote]That would be my guess, but I’d also assume the MLB team provides money for food.

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  302. WaLi

    So what happens if player X is signed 6th overall and thinks he is worth more than his slot value being offered and decides not to sign. Does the team still get a draft pick next year?

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  303. WaLi

    Answer me this: Why apply a luxury tax to draft spending, international signings and MLB salaries independently? Why not apply the tax to the entire amount a team spends on “baseball operations”? For example, say the Yankees spend $300MM (all-inclusive… MLB FO salaries, MLB player/coach/manager salaries, MiLB operations, draft spending, international signings, all totalling $300MM)… Say a cut-off of $225MM for 2012 would make $75MM taxable. This would allow a team flexibility to allot money as they wish/need to.

    As it stands, it seems that every team is being forced into a cookie-cutter. A team like Tampa could end up only spending $60MM on “baseball operations”, but because of their apportioning “too much” of that $60MM on the draft, they could be subject to tax. This is honestly one of the biggest mistakes MLB could make… that and allowing the Padres to wear those hideous unis last year.

    Comment from Fangraphs, thought this was a good idea.

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  304. binky

    [quote name=mb21]Salaries for unwanted players would really low in an indy league, but for the type of league that GW was talking about would not at all be low. Where do you put those teams? If you’re paying players that much money, putting a team in the Quad Cities won’t work. You’d have to put the teams in large markets and there’s not a chance in hell that MLB teams are going to allow that. Whether they should be allowed to do it is another issue.[/quote]That’s what I’m saying, either they offer low salaries and have zero chance of competing, or they have to fashion themselves after MLB. It doesn’t seem feasible.

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  305. binky

    [quote name=josh]That’s what I’m saying, either they offer low salaries and have zero chance of competing, or they have to fashion themselves after MLB. It doesn’t seem feasible.[/quote]They’re not going to be able to offer major league salaries off the bat, though. They’ll be second banana for a long time, probably for comparably priced tickets.

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  306. binky

    [quote name=WaLi]Comment from Fangraphs, thought this was a good idea.[/quote]Less financial scrutiny too, which should appeal to owners.

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  307. Suburbankid 22

    There should be a better acronym for minor league baseball. My lying eyes see MLB even when someone types MiLB.

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  310. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    Just got an e-mail:

    Cubs Convention ——> nearly sold out

    Well, plenty of tickets are still available. But, act fast! (dying laughing)

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  311. Rice Cube

    [quote name=WaLi]So what happens if player X is signed 6th overall and thinks he is worth more than his slot value being offered and decides not to sign. Does the team still get a draft pick next year?[/quote]I don’t think the CBA killed that compensation, at least I didn’t read it. That team would get the 7th pick the next year, which they absolutely have to sign or else they receive no additional compensation.

    That was under the old system though.

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  314. GW

    [quote name=mb21]An Indy League like GW is suggesting wouldn’t work. If you paid those players like he is suggesting tickets would cost considerably more than they do at most minor league ballparks. The reason some of them do very well is that they sell so many tickets because it’s cheap. The MLB teams are covering the salaries so their operating expenses are very low.

    MLB owners were smart. They understood there would at some point be interest in an indy league and they did away with any chance of that by covering most of the expenses for MiLB teams.

    I think the best thing to compare an MiLB team to is a busy strip club. The dancers are paid little (or nothing) other than tips. The club gets a bunch of horny males to come in and throw money at the chicks while paying for expensive drinks all night long. The cover charge isn’t usually that high, but the cover itself runs the place.

    I’m just waiting for an MiLB team to become a strip club. Then they’d make more money than any MLB team. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    The model would be to make up their profits in buyouts, not tickets. If a Cespedes/Chapman (hell, even bryce harper) type decided to decline the $500k bonus they were being offered and play in an overseas indy league for three to five years, a team could conceivably pay a star 100k/year in anticipation of getting $5M (of a $30-$40M deal) of their future major league bonus. They could keep their tickets dirt cheap and pay the native dominicans 10K/year or whatever it took to fill out rosters.

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  318. mb21

    [quote name=GW]The model would be to make up their profits in buyouts, not tickets. If a Cespedes/Chapman (hell, even bryce harper) type decided to decline the $500k bonus they were being offered and play in an overseas indy league for three to five years, a team could conceivably pay a star 100k/year in anticipation of getting $5M (of a $30-$40M deal) of their future major league bonus. They could keep their tickets dirt cheap and pay the native dominicans 10K/year or whatever it took to fill out rosters.[/quote]I don’t know if I completely understand what you’re saying. If you wait until the guy is 23, he gets to sign only that contract before he’s past his prime. And that contract is at a discounted rate. While Byrce Harper would have been stuck with about $3.5 million, he’s also arbitration eligible after 3 years of service time. Let’s use Tim Lincecum as an example. I don’t remember what his bonus was, but it’s not relevant. He’s already made $23 million and will get at least $16-18 million. He’ll have made more than $40 million prior to becoming a free agent in player salaries alone.

    The top players are going to be better off being drafted. The indy league would be filled with second tier players at best. I’m guessing they’d also be better better off being drafted.

    Even if the indy league had a posting system like the NPB, they wouldn’t get much in return for those guys. Most of them, as you well know, would never amount to anything anyway.

    It’s interesting, but I don’t see it happening. I don’t see how it could succeed.

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  319. mb21

    [quote name=GW]parity is by no means the goal in these negotiations.[/quote]Exactly. This was about getting more money to MLB players without regard for minor leaguers.

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  320. GW

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t know if I completely understand what you’re saying. If you wait until the guy is 23, he gets to sign only that contract before he’s past his prime. And that contract is at a discounted rate. While Byrce Harper would have been stuck with about $3.5 million, he’s also arbitration eligible after 3 years of service time. Let’s use Tim Lincecum as an example. I don’t remember what his bonus was, but it’s not relevant. He’s already made $23 million and will get at least $16-18 million. He’ll have made more than $40 million prior to becoming a free agent in player salaries alone.

    The top players are going to be better off being drafted. The indy league would be filled with second tier players at best. I’m guessing they’d also be better better off being drafted.

    Even if the indy league had a posting system like the NPB, they wouldn’t get much in return for those guys. Most of them, as you well know, would never amount to anything anyway.

    It’s interesting, but I don’t see it happening. I don’t see how it could succeed.[/quote]
    yeah, it’s all about risk/reward. to use the example of lincecum, the question is not how much he has made, but how much he could have made taking the other path. I think it’s well within the realm of possibility. Boras has toyed with the notion in the past to avoid the draft despite the lavish draft spending; with severe cuts, i think it could happen.

    Imagine a free agent contract for a 23 year old star if all of the teams were eligible to bid. 30-40M is what some of these guys are getting out of the relative obscurity of Cuba. now imagine a dominican league that is easily accessible to scouts, in an area that is flooded with them, not to mention all the existing baseball infrastructure. the red sox ponied up $100M for daisuke, for example. there is huge upside for one of these consensus #1s, who feels he is worth the risk. in the meantime, he makes a good living while avoiding the awful minor league experience.

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  321. mb21

    Matsuzaka earned that much because the NPB is roughly equal to AAA. Teams have a very good idea how AAA performance transfers to MLB. The Cuban league is about equal to A ball so they get less money as it’s much more difficult to project their future value.

    Amateur players can already go sign with teams in Japan if they wanted to. As we’ve seen with some players, they can get a ton of money, but players still elect not to go there. I think any indy league would have to be at least as good as the NPB and I don’t think that’s at all possible. My guess would be you end up with a league similar in talent to a short-season league and far worse than a major college (about AA).

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  322. mb21

    By the way, if/when there is a consensus number 1, it’s very likely teams go well over slot as they have in the past. If a Strasburg or Harper is available, it’s worth signing him and giving up a pick the following year.

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  324. mb21

    What the hell is that guy talking about? Does the NFL have less talent because of its slotting system? What about the NBA? This is insane.

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  325. GW

    [quote name=mb21]By the way, if/when there is a consensus number 1, it’s very likely teams go well over slot as they have in the past. If a Strasburg or Harper is available, it’s worth signing him and giving up a pick the following year.[/quote]
    well over slot is still much less than it would be if 30 teams were in the bidding.

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  326. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]What the hell is that guy talking about? Does the NFL have less talent because of its slotting system? What about the NBA? This is insane.[/quote]I think some of these reactions are a bit knee-jerk and I think it’ll take maybe a season or two to figure out how big the effects are, but it’s not unreasonable to think that if teams aren’t as willing to overspend on the draft, kids will be less likely to pick baseball over football or basketball.

    However, with MLB being the richest baseball league in the world and the best baseball players wanting to play on the biggest stage, you’ll always have the pick of the elite talent. I guess the question is whether the pool of available baseball talent also contains the best athletes, due to the perceived decrease in incentive to play baseball as they are describing.

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  327. mb21

    [quote name=GW]well over slot is still much less than it would be if 30 teams were in the bidding.[/quote]I agree and that’s ultimately what I want. i don’t want a draft.

    But take Strasburg and have him sign with a Japanese team, which he could have done, and he gets paid less than what his bonus was and even less than what he’d get in the MLB Draft now and after his injury is worthless.

    Had Strasburg signed with a Japanese team, remained healthy, yeah, he was worth a lot more than he was signed for or would be signed for now.

    I’d be interested to see what would happen. It would take one major draft pick not signing and playing in Japan. If it worked out well there would be more. So far though, they’ve decided it’s not worth the risk.

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  328. GW

    [quote name=mb21]Matsuzaka earned that much because the NPB is roughly equal to AAA. Teams have a very good idea how AAA performance transfers to MLB. The Cuban league is about equal to A ball so they get less money as it’s much more difficult to project their future value.

    Amateur players can already go sign with teams in Japan if they wanted to. As we’ve seen with some players, they can get a ton of money, but players still elect not to go there. I think any indy league would have to be at least as good as the NPB and I don’t think that’s at all possible. My guess would be you end up with a league similar in talent to a short-season league and far worse than a major college (about AA).[/quote]
    i find it hard to believe that a dominican league couldn’t equal the npb in talent. players would presumably prefer the dominican to japan because it’s closer, and less of a culture shock. also, players have had the chance to go to japan, but less motivation, with the levels of draft spending.

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  330. mb21

    I think you could potentially lose one two sport star per decade to football, but that’s about it. Carl Crawford signed with the Rays because he could get big bucks right away rather than going to school for 4 years and then MAYBE getting similar money. Same with Matt Holliday.

    I think right now it’s easy to say these guys aren’t going to sign, but come signing day and they have a $3 million in front of them it’s going to be awfully damn hard to decline it. To these people I say, name 5 players over the last decade who declined that kind of money from MLB teams to go play football. I’m sure there’s one. Maybe there’s even two. I don’t know who they are. There may not be any, but I doubt there are 5.

    Holliday was a 7th round pick by the Rockies. He signed for $0.8 million instead of being the OkSU QB.

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  331. mb21

    [quote name=GW]i find it hard to believe that a dominican league couldn’t equal the npb in talent. players would presumably prefer the dominican to japan because it’s closer, and less of a culture shock. also, players have had the chance to go to japan, but less motivation, with the levels of draft spending.[/quote]I think they could equal the NPB, but it’s not going to happen in the Dominican. Right now teams are investing a lot of money in very young players there. If more and more of them begin choosing this indy league, those investments would end. What reason would a team have to invest that kind of money in a player who plays in this league and then they can’t sign him until he’s 23?

    So who is going to make up for that? Some of these guys are as good as they are because of their training. Obviously there’s the natural talent, but without someone investing them at a young age they may never be anywhere near as good as they are now. I would expect that talent in Latin America would decline considerably if something like that started there.

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  332. mb21

    [quote name=GW]i’m not saying this thing is bound to happen, just that i find it plausible.[/quote]I think it’s more interesting than plausible. Soriano went to Japan to make a good living before coming here, but that was in large part because he didn’t get much of any offer (or any offers at all). He didn’t have a choice. I don’t think he ended up signing for much money when he came here, but I’m too lazy to look that up.

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  333. GW

    [quote name=mb21]I think they could equal the NPB, but it’s not going to happen in the Dominican. Right now teams are investing a lot of money in very young players there. If more and more of them begin choosing this indy league, those investments would end. What reason would a team have to invest that kind of money in a player who plays in this league and then they can’t sign him until he’s 23?

    So who is going to make up for that? Some of these guys are as good as they are because of their training. Obviously there’s the natural talent, but without someone investing them at a young age they may never be anywhere near as good as they are now. I would expect that talent in Latin America would decline considerably if something like that started there.[/quote]
    the incentive for investment will dry up regardless. given a fixed budget, there is less of a reason for individual teams to invest, knowing that they can sign fewer players.

    in the end, an equilibrium would be reached, with teams pushing hard for kids to take their offers, and the league offering an alternative route for kids. as i mentioned, this would just be an offshoot of what is already happening with private investors. those folks would see an avenue for recouping investment in the face of new reules.

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  334. GW

    and my feelings toward dominican players are similar to yours regarding two sport athletes. dominicans will play baseball because that’s what they do. investors are just trying to claim a piece. the chinese, on the other hand, won’t, because it’s not part of their culture.

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  336. mb21

    [quote name=GW]and my feelings toward dominican players are similar to yours regarding two sport athletes. dominicans will play baseball because that’s what they do. investors are just trying to claim a piece. the chinese, on the other hand, won’t, because it’s not part of their culture.[/quote]Then the Cubs should scout China because that’s what they do, or at least that’s what they did in the past anyway. Find the place with no talent and go there.

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  337. GW

    [quote name=mb21]Then the Cubs should scout China because that’s what they do, or at least that’s what they did in the past anyway. Find the place with no talent and go there.[/quote]
    (dying laughing) brad is on the case

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  338. binky

    [quote name=mb21]Then the Cubs should scout China because that’s what they do, or at least that’s what they did in the past anyway. Find the place with no talent and go there.[/quote]Did Dominican baseball self-coagulate, or did American teams begin investing there and that’s what created the Dominican baseball farm? I guess I’m asking if China has any kind of baseball culture now and if not, could MLB teams create one? If you could inject it into the culture, then you’re onto something. The way I understand China (from my one Chinese coworker), it’s a very independent-minded country with a lot of patriotism — they like being the best at things — but they also are starting to gravitate toward Western culture, even if they don’t adopt all of the ideals. I think the best bet for places like China and India would be to set up competitions with Japan. That said, it would be hard to gain a foothold in those countries. Not impossible, but it would be a slow process. I’m not sure just finding athletes and trying to teach them baseball at 18/19 is going to work.

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  343. GW

    [quote name=josh]Did Dominican baseball self-coagulate, or did American teams begin investing there and that’s what created the Dominican baseball farm? I guess I’m asking if China has any kind of baseball culture now and if not, could MLB teams create one?[/quote]
    sure, and if it catches on, it should only take a few decades to start bearing fruit.

    http://dr1.com/articles/baseball.shtml

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  345. binky

    Maybe, just maybe, you’d be catching China at time when they were really trying to modernize and get lucky. That would be the only argument toward it that I could see at this point.

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  346. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]Maybe, just maybe, you’d be catching China at time when they were really trying to modernize and get lucky. That would be the only argument toward it that I could see at this point.[/quote]If you can harness their chi into pitching, that would be some crazy shit. Shaolin baseball!

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  347. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]Oh yeah, I also hate the mandatory participation in the ASG.[/quote]I’m sure that the players will find some creative reasons to snag a Bud Selig “you’re excused” note.

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  348. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]If you can harness their chi into pitching, that would be some crazy shit. Shaolin baseball![/quote]good call!

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  350. binky

    [quote name=mb21]What about Matt Garza for Yonder Alonso and someone else?[/quote]I’d be for that. Alonso is young and cheap and would be a piece for contention a couple years down the road. By then maybe some younger pitchers will be ready and the Cubs think about signing a free agent pitcher. I’d go for it.

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  351. mb21

    I’d want more than Alonso. I’ll look at the Reds minor league system tomorrow and post something. it will probably be the last thing I post until Monday.

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  352. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    [quote name=mb21]I’d want more than Alonso. I’ll look at the Reds minor league system tomorrow and post something. it will probably be the last thing I post until Monday.[/quote]
    Need to get a pitcher back in return as well

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  354. Berselius

    Hasn’t Alonso’s stock dropped in the past year or so? From what I remember he’s been kind of disappointing at the plate for a while.

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  356. Berselius

    [quote name=GW]well over slot is still much less than it would be if 30 teams were in the bidding.[/quote]It hurts guys like Strasburg and Harper, but don’t forget that teams are also restricted in that they actually have to pick someone.

    It makes me think if what Charlie O. said when the players first started pushing for free agency. “make ’em all free agents”. Miller was terrified that it would happen but the owners were too dumb to listen to him. It’s tough for a player to get leverage when a team can just say fuck you and go after another guy with similar value instead.

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  357. GW

    [quote name=Berselius]It hurts guys like Strasburg and Harper, but don’t forget that teams are also restricted in that they actually have to pick someone.

    It makes me think if what Charlie O. said when the players first started pushing for free agency. “make ’em all free agents”. Miller was terrified that it would happen but the owners were too dumb to listen to him. It’s tough for a player to get leverage when a team can just say fuck you and go after another guy with similar value instead.[/quote]
    teams can always agree beforehand with a jeremy brown/hayden simpson type to go below slot, but they typically go way above because of the club control.

    i remember that quote, as well, but I have a hard time imagining that payrolls would change much at all, in the aggregate, were everyone to be made free agents. what would change is that the minor leagues would cease to exist as we currently know them, and the middle class would consist of veterans and younger players.

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  358. binky

    [quote name=ACT]In 2011, he had a fine year at the plate (especially in the majors).[/quote]His left fielding abilities leave something to be desired. I agree that a little something else is necessary. Alonso is all potential, whereas Garza is proven value.

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  359. ACT

    He’s not much of an outfielder to be sure, but he might be OK at first. Some scouts have questioned his power-hitting potential, however.

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