Last season Matt Garza enjoyed a breakout season. His strikeouts increased. His walks decreased. He kept the ball on the ground and therefore in the park a lot more often. He was even so lucky last year that he allowed only 7.7% of his fly balls to leave the yard. While Fangraphs had him with a cool 5.0 WAR, Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus weren't so giving. B-Ref's WAR (often called rWAR) was 2.5 while BPro's WARP was 3.7. If you take the average of the 3 it was arguably his best season in his career. ;
This season Garza has seen a small decrease in his strikeout rate (about .7 less per 9) and maintained the same walk rate. He's even managed to hold batters to a BABIP of just .270 and has stranded more runners this year than last. Similar strikeout rate, basically the same walk rate, much lower BABIP, and a lower LOB% and you'd think he'd be just as good. But no. HIs HR/FB% has more than doubled to 16.7%. That's not all though.
His ERA has increased by exactly 1 run. NL average runs per game is slightly higher, but nowhere near as high as a 1 run per 9 increase. Other than the increase in home runs per fly ball, the difference between the two seasons boils down to sequencing.
He's actually been better with bases empty this year (.576 vs. .650 last year), but if you look at the plate appearances and the ones that have the most the difference is considerable. He's been better with the bases loaded, but only 8 times has he faced a bases loaded situation. He's been better with runners on 3rd (less than 2 outs and with 2 out), but only a total of 33 plate appearances. The big difference is the Men on (144 PA), 1st and 3rd (76 PA) and 1st, less than 2 outs (78 PA).
Last year he was a little better than expected in these high leverage situations while this year he's been a lot worse than expected. The end result is an ERA much higher. His wOBA is .398 with men on base. It's over .370 with men in scoring position. Last year both were below .300.
There’s no reason to think he won’t improve, but I do have to admit that I fail to see why people believe Garza is so valuable. He’s a good pitcher, but he’s far from great.
Comments
NL Eastgasm + 93-95MPH Fastball + Great in the Playoffs that One Time! = Overrated.
DoogolasQuote Reply
looks like the padres are going to sell for $800MM. last sold in ’94 for around $70MM. makes the cubs look like a steal.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Partly because of their snazzy (relatively) new ballpark?
Re: Garza, I still think if you package Barney in along with him in trade you can still get an elite prospect back. Desperation = all your fagety spreadsheets go out the door, or so they tell me. I am in agreement that he’s not great but there’s always room for more solid pitching in a rotation.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I agree when trading go for the package deal. We can get someone who is close and under contract. I’ve always preferred to sell high. I’d like to get a top 20 guy who has reached AA. Say, I’d love Brett Jackson and Ryan Dempster for Zach Lee, getting a stud pitching prospect and trading for a position of relative farm depth.
PezcoreQuote Reply
@ Pezcore:
I’d like to see Brett Jackson eventually patrolling CF or RF at Wrigley but I like that trade idea you have as well. I’m so torn! *cries*
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/06/sports/baseball/in-japan-yankees-hiroki-kuroda-was-molded-by-pain.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
ketsu batto > no dinner
GWQuote Reply
Cool. MLB.TV has crowd noise but no Len and Bob.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
That didn’t last long.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Ah the bunt.
joshQuote Reply
I guess Samardzija would’ve been screwed whether they moved the fences in or not. Those were some bombs he gave up.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Nice bow, AC.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Now I understand why AC hasn’t been around. Topless archery and mullet-care is a time-intensive combo.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I like how Samardzija switched between bunting and swinging with a runner on second (though he probably should have been taken out for a pinch-hitter). Now if only managers would have their pitchers do that with a runner on first.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Plus the 7 Minute Abs takes time too. I figure somewhere around 7 minutes.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Somehow, Samardzija gets a nominal Quality Start
BerseliusQuote Reply
greinke ejected after four pitches for spiking the ball after a close play at first. a bunch of scouts who flew in to see him are pissed
GWQuote Reply
Apparently the post hoc rationalization du jour for Samardzija’s bad June was that he was working on a new pitch. Why not, during a season like this one.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GW:
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GW:
At least he can probably start tomorrow
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
good point. houston is beautiful this time of year, too (dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Maybe he wasn’t mentally prepared because he didn’t know where to eat lunch today
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Garza has been working on a new pitch with runners on base.
mb21Quote Reply
great catch
GWQuote Reply
@ mb21:
That project has taken a backseat to the new throw to 1b that he’s working on
BerseliusQuote Reply
This Parnell guy throws hard (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I counted 6 straight 3-digit fastballs to finish off that Clevenger AB.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Zack Greinke got himself ejected in the first inning, and apparently some scouts that came to see him are angry about that.
Edit: I guess I should read comments before posting.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Geovany Soto has been working on a new swing this year.
mb21Quote Reply
Starlin Castro has been working on swinging at pitches out of the zone this year.
mb21Quote Reply
Castro has already set a career high in caught stealings (and he leads the league). I’m really starting to wish management would tell him to cool his jets.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
He’s doing a great job at that! (Or is he trying not to swing at pitches outside the zone?)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
He has almost as many CS as he has walks.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Yeah, that’s better.
mb21Quote Reply
Holy shit! Castro is swinging at 37.7% of the pitches out of the zone while the average is 28.6%.
mb21Quote Reply
Using the BIS data he’s at 40%, which is 7th highest in baseball.
mb21Quote Reply
New Comic: http://obstructedview.net/comics/shark-patrol.html
joshQuote Reply