Daily Facepalm – 9.12.2012

In Commentary And Analysis, Facepalm by andcounting132 Comments

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The Cubs lost to the Astros 1-0 in what quite possibly could be the worst game of baseball ever played. Between the two teams there were ten hits, six errors, and one meager run. The only reason the otherwise merciless crapfest ended was because Starlin Castro couldn't outrun Dave Sappelt's stupidity, preventing Castro from scoring the tying run before Sappelt made the last out at third. Thank goodness that shit didn't go to extras.

Do the Cubs Have a Game Today?

I'm honestly afraid to look. But I'm pretty sure they do.

Most Valuable Aramis

Aramis Ramirez is having a career year with the Brewers, While it's true that his when-it-doesn't-count production will go for naught for the late-blooming Brewers (it could happen, but it's not gonna happen), imagine what kind of year he could have had for the Cubs. Let's take a look at just how little any of the Cubs' games have mattered this season:

  • Since the conclusion of the Cubs' very first game, they've never been closer than one game out of first place.
  • After the first series, they never got closer than two games behind the division leader.
  • The Cubs haven't trailed in the division by single-digit games since May 22.
  • They haven't trailed by fewer than 20 games since August 1.
  • They haven't been within a game of .500 since the end of the first series of the season.
  • Lest a winning streak were to cause Aramis to feel undue pressure or smell the disgusting whiff of hope, the Cubs haven't won more than four games in a row. 

By my calculations, given the minuscule intersection of the sets of Games that Count and Games that Involved the Chicago Cubs, Aramis could have been a 60 WAR Cub this year. And somehow the Cubs would still manage to win fewer than 60 games.

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  11. berselius22

    Mish wrote:

    Per HBT, there’s an actual doubleheader scheduled on Memorial Day. Rangers and someone, IDK. (dying laughing)

    Someone’s gonna lose

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  13. Mercurial Outfielder

    I bet AL teams who will lose the DH for 3-4 games in September due to the late interleague games are not going to be happy about the new schedule.

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  17. berselius22

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    True, but then they will have had the advantage of more DH games earlier in the year so should have a better record. Not that it’s going to make the team’s sportswriters whine any less (dying laughing).

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  23. josh

    According to World Series Dreaming, the teams were limited to only 20 interleague games. If that’s correct, then that explains why they are thinner than expected.

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  25. Chet Masterson

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    I bet AL teams who will lose the DH for 3-4 games in September due to the late interleague games are not going to be happy about the new schedule.

    But super happy they get to beat up on the NL.

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  26. Chet Masterson

    Vitters at 3B tonight vs LHP. Interesting to me only because with Rizzo out and a LHP on the mound, LaHair is on the bench and the Cubs went with Some Guy at 1B instead of Vitters.

    Seems interesting that at the MLB level the Cubs won’t play Josh anywhere but 3B when they had him play there more than a few times in MiLB. Not that I’m complaining, since him playing 1B is a white flag move (in my opinion), I just found it interesting.

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  27. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Chet Masterson:

    Are there hard numbers that back up all these assertions of the AL being this bastion of superb and unbeatable baseball teams, or this some sort of received wisdom based on things that used to be true? I ask because 8 of the 17 WS since the strike have been won by NL teams, and one AL team has accounted 5 of the 9 AL wins. Maybe the NL has more really bad teams, but I suspect the teams at the top of each league are roughly equal. Just seems like something baseball fans like to say, but I’ve never seen much data beyond the head-to-head records, and you can’t dismiss the WS number by saying “anyone can be bad in a 7-game series” without that argument calling into question the regular season W-L records, because those are even shorter series.

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  28. Rice Cube

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    I think it has to do with the fact that the AL has owned the NL in All-Star games and interleague over the past decade or so. Plus I imagine the DH increases the overall OPS of an AL team relative to their NL counterparts. I’ve also read blogs before (including from ACB and OV) that suggest the NL needs a WAR adjustment because they’re just not up to par with the AL, but I don’t remember exactly where or why.

    Just throwing things out there. The DH is usually the main item discussed when arguing AL > NL though.

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  30. uncle dave

    Didn’t see this posted here, but thought it was interesting:

    (Warning: Grantland)

    …not so much for the discussion on Strasburg, which has been mercilessly beaten to death, but for this, among other things:

    Mark Prior threw as many games with 130-plus pitches in September and October of 2003 as every pitcher in the major leagues combined in 2012.

    Reading the numbers on how Wood and Prior were used makes me kinda sad. And a bit angry.

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  31. mb21

    .550ish winning percentage for the AL vs NLbin recent years so yeah, the AL is awesome and the NL sucks. Basically, a .450 team in the AL would be a .500 team in the NL.

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  34. Mercurial Outfielder

    What I am asking is why is the AL better? What makes the AL so much better? W-L records don’t tell that tale. I need that story. Otherwise, it’s just bare assertion masquerading as fact.

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  37. josh

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    One hypothesis, that I didn’t originate, is that because the DH creates a more hitter-heavy lineup, AL pitchers have to be a little better, so it’s sort of an arm’s race that creates a little better team. Maybe, too, the fact that the pitchers don’t worry about hitting gives them more time to focus on pitching? Pure conjecture here.

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  38. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ josh:
    I can see that but is there any data to back that up? I mean one extra hitter in the lineup results in a .05 difference in winning %? That sounds a little odd.

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  39. mb21

    The AL is better right now and has been for most of this century. That’s not an assertion. It is a fact.

    Why ate they better? More talent. Will they continue to be better? No, probably not. Prior to the AL dominance they were quite a bit worse than the NL.

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  43. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ mb21:

    Why do they have more talent? How does that talent make them that much better? You’re not answering the question, you’re just tossing facts at me. If you can say with certainty that a .450 AL team is a .500 NL team, then show the work.

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  46. Mercurial Outfielder

    I’m not denying the AL is better, I just want to understand why they are better. What exactly adds the extra wins to make a .450 AL team a .500 NL team?

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  49. mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    I don’t really know what you’re asking. I’m saying that right now and for the last several years the AL has had more talent than the NL and has therefore been a far superior league. I’m also saying that it’s not likely to continue forever. FWIW, it’s more than just the Yankees and Red Sox too. The AL is just better because they have more talent, but in all likelihood will not continue to have more talent than the NL. At some point it’s likely to be reversed.

    Since 2005 (an arbitrary beginning point mind you), the AL has a .555 WP in IL games. That is a lot! That suggests an average AL team would be a 90 win team in the NL.

    http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/al_v_nl_in_2011/

    Last I saw this year (June), the AL had something like a .575 winning percentage against the NL. That surely changed though I don’t know how much, but the bottom line is that right now the AL is considerably better than the NL. Looking for reasons is relatively pointless in my opinion. The bottom line is that an average AL team vs. an average NL team will result, if enough games are played of course, in the AL team thoroughly kicking the NL team’s ass.

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  50. mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    Right now it’s simple: talent. It actually is as simple as that. The AL has much better pitching and the hitting, last I read, is about the same. They’re just better.

    I think you’re trying to look for reasons that just aren’t there. It’s entirely possible the DH gives the AL some advantage, but probably not much and certainly not as much as we’ve seen. They kick the NL’s ass in the NL ballparks too. Of course, by kicking ass away from home I’m talking winning as many as you lose.

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  55. Mercurial Outfielder

    Man, that Arneson piece is exactly how I’ve felt about MLB the last few seasons. Best bit:

    MLB’s revenues come less and less directly from baseball fans, and more and more indirectly, from TV networks and cable/satellite providers.

    This causes MLB to lose control over the customer experience of their fans. If a TV network and a cable provider can’t come to an agreement on price, for example, Padres fans can go a whole season without being able to watch their team on TV. And if not all TV networks are available on all cable/satellite services, fans have to scramble around to watch the games they want.

    Or, fans just go without. And what does that do? It ends up teaching them that they can learn to live without your product. That too, may not be noticeable right away, until it snowballs too late for you to do anything about it.
    …

    But think about that for a second. The new owners of the Dodgers spent $1.3 billion dollars on a business model that:
    (a) depends almost entirely on another industry that isn’t growing, and would be in steep, steep decline without your industry. If either one of your industries catches a cold, the other one will necessarily start sneezing.
    (b) puts your industry in a complete misalignment with your customers, requiring you to prevent your customers from consuming your product in the way they’d prefer, distancing yourself from the revenue feedback loop, making it more difficult to know if you’re doing any long-term damage to your product, and where you need to improve.

    The new Dodger owners obviously didn’t care. Maybe they didn’t think about these risks. Or maybe they did, and thought the math worked anyway. Or maybe they considered it, but they thought they could sell the team to someone else before the whole house of cards fell in, like an investor in a Ponzi scheme who doesn’t think he’ll be the one who ends up being the victim.

    Who knows. But me, I wouldn’t touch a business model like that with a 10-mile pole.

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  56. frysredjacket

    Rice Cube wrote:

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
    you’re just tossing facts at me
    Not trying to be a dick or anything but this was really funny to me (dying laughing)

    It reminded me of this old joke:
    A young couple are enjoying a CSO concert on the lawn at Ravinia. As young couples tend to do, they get a bit frisky under the blanket. The woman brings her boyfriend off, getting a bit of his spendings on her hand. Unsure of what to do, she pulls her hand out from under the blanket and gives it a mighty shake, sending his seed straight into the face of the second chair violinist. He reaches up to wipe it off and gasps in horror.
    “What’s wrong?” whispers the first chair.
    “Someone just tossed a fuck at me!” replies the second.
    “Well, is it any wonder? You’ve been playing like a twat all night.”

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  78. mb21

    We need to contact HIghlights to see if they’re interested in purchasing our Where’s Alvin game. It could be a blast for children for decades to come.

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  87. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Aisle424:

    If someone would have told me in March that he’d have a real shot at 100 RBI, I’d have laughed at them. His season is a far bigger surprise than Samardzjia’s, for me.

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  89. mikeakaleroy

    @ GBTS:
    Ah, after reading the post, I now understand where I went wrong. I apologize if I offended you, Wanda, Roger the beer guy, or Alvin.

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  95. mb21

    @ Rice Cube:
    I’m OK if they don’t wear masks, but they should have something that at least covers the ears. Taking a line drive off the jaw or chin will hurt like a motherfucker, but it won’t kill you.

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  96. mb21

    @ Aisle424:
    In that case it wouldn’t have helped, but I’d support them wearing masks and I think eventually they will. First we’ll see helmets and once that happens I don’t think it will be long before they wear some type of facial protection too. Why not? Once they’ve made a change and go from hat to helmet I just don’t think it’s going to take long to see further changes.

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  97. Mercurial Outfielder

    White Sox are not even at capacity at US Cellular, for a series which could determine the division, and by extension, their playoff lives. Sox fans are odd.

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  98. SVB

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    Excellent article.

    I think this sums up my argument on why the Cubs should not have pushed more and more of their games to CSN or whatever and away from WGN. WGN built their brand and got millions of kids hooked on the Cubs, and now we are still fans. CubsNet or whatever, will restrict viewing so much that the future fans will never be hooked.

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  99. Rice Cube

    @ mb21:

    They might benefit from something like what ice hockey players wear nowadays.

    It probably can’t be a mesh like what catchers wear, or a full face shield as it could get fogged up. I think the main concern is whether or not a pitcher will still be able to do his normal motions with headgear on. But you can argue that an even bigger concern is whether his brain stays intact on a comebacker.

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  101. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ SVB:
    I think it will be interesting to see how this all pans out. But I definitely think baseball is going to lose a whole generation of fans because of this business model.

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  105. SVB

    Here’s something I found amusing—-
    Over on the Forum page (which I accessed from the menu bar at top because the links at right are still missing), the status of the topic “Chicago Teachers Strike” is on fire. But the status of “Why I Hate Religion” is not. I guess God isn’t paying attention.

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  109. josh

    @ SVB:
    (dying laughing)

    @ SVB:
    That’s a good point. I lived in Iowa and my parents probably wouldn’t have sought out CSN or whatever. My whole family got hooked on the Cubs thanks to WGN. They do seem to be trying to make an effort to get a lot of weekend games on WGN, but I don’t know if they are broadcasting them over the entire superstation like they used to.

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  118. josh

    Wood had a hell of a play on defense last night. I love how that guy can play D and hit. They should stick him out in center and see if he can play every day.

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  120. WaLi

    @ Rice Cube:

    I don’t think pitchers will wear helmets (or visors or whatever) unless MLB makes them. NHL players said something to the effect of “We all want to wear visors, but no one will because it puts you at a competitive disadvantage if someone else isn’t. So unless NHL mandates it players aren’t going to voluntarily wear them”. I can see the same mentality being applied to any sport.

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  122. josh

    To me, the thing to consider is the frequency that people get hit in the head by a comebacker. Batters wearing helmets made sense because it doesn’t interfere that much, and people were getting hit in the head often enough that it was worrisome. It seems like pitchers getting hit in the head or eye area is much more rare. From a pitcher’s perspective, it just might not be worth the sacrifice for something that is very improbably. In NHL, it makes sense, because, again, the frequency of violence to the face in that sport.

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  125. Suburban kid

    You know, Josh’s comics are real good and all, but BGTS deserves to also be honored with full authorship and executive bathroom credentials at OV given the quality and frequency of his gifsmanship.

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  126. Suburban kid

    I was referring of course to LGBT’s “Where’s Alvin” series, although I suppose A424 also creates some of those.

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