UPDATE: Megan is also still alive.
Everyone who entered a prediction to win an Obstructed View shirt has been eliminated with the exception of Suburban Kid, ACT and jherky. Let’s go over the possibilities.
If the Cubs win, jherky wins. If they don’t, he’s out.
If they lose today then it goes to the first tiebreaker between SK and ACT. SK had the Cubs scoring 104 runs. They’ve scored 103. In order for ACT to win, he needs the Cubs to score 9 runs or more today. He’ll lose the 2nd tiebreaker so he has to win on the 1st one. SK predicted 142 runs allowed and so far they’ve allowed 136. ACT predicted 160 runs allowed.
Unless the Cubs have an offensive game today, it’s really down to SK and jherky. ACT needs them to lose while scoring a shitload of runs.
Comments
binkyQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
jtsunamiQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Man, we’re 4 games back of Houston? I thought we were closer.
MishQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I dont get it, jtsunami.
MishQuote Reply
Dwight Howard and Gilbert Arenas are in a “plank war.”
Planking is when you lay face down like a plank in random places.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Maybe I’m only one (dying laughing) at this.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Brett Jackson: 0-4, K ——> avg down to .246
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Forgotten prospect Logan Watkins is coming around. He was hovering around .200 at the end of May. Now he’s up to .270 and walks at a nice clip.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Here’s some Alisms you can use:
Done. Deal. Sealed.
I can’t argue with you today.
Shut him right up.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]Here’s some Alisms you can use:
Done. Deal. Sealed.
I can’t argue with you today.
Shut him right up.[/quote]
The first one is an NSBS faget who’s no longer with us.
The second two I subtly covered yesterday, but I might try to do it more overtly.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
jackson and mcnutt are doing terrible. the major league team is still the major league team.
not much to cheer for really
dylanjQuote Reply
Or…
fagets
You win the internets
Correct
False
True
Let’s See What Happens
Changing every name to a nickname by adding -y
I can’t think of anymore ATM
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Hey, unless I’m having a brain fart and missing something big, I think I’m still in the running too – I predicted 11-18.
MeganQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]The first one is an NSBS faget who’s no longer with us.
The second two I subtly covered yesterday, but I might try to do it more overtly.[/quote]Done. Deal Sealed. wasn’t Al? I thought I saw that on BCB. I’m trying to think of all the dumb shit I saw on that site so it’s going to take me awhile to weed through it all. How about flipping Cain for Nolasco, or his love for Jeremy Hermida?
MuckerQuote Reply
done deal sealed was Truffle Shuffle I think.
JR Towles for life
dylanjQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]done deal sealed was Mephistopheles.
JR Towles for life[/quote].
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=53784&p=2278262#p2278262
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I bet if Lou Montanez had made the same bullshit play, Al wouldn’t be so forgiving.
Aisle424Quote Reply
He laughed at LAA for making that choice. I’ve never gone back through and looked at the “resident draft expert’s” draft analysis before. (dying laughing)
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
That poor dog. (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Megan]Hey, unless I’m having a brain fart and missing something big, I think I’m still in the running too – I predicted 11-18.[/quote]
MB is running this, so he can correct me if I’m wrong. But if I’m reading the entries correctly, since you have 11 wins, the Cubs need to win and score 2 runs or less in the process for you to win. If they score 3 or more in a victory, jherky wins the runs scored tie-breaker and the shirt.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Megan]Hey, unless I’m having a brain fart and missing something big, I think I’m still in the running too – I predicted 11-18.[/quote]
Highlighting this since she asked on Twitter.
MishQuote Reply
http://www.bringonthecats.com/2011/6/30/2249785/adventures-of-the-big-12-bon-voyage#storyjump
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/6/30/2251365/a-pointless-rant-about-joe-mauer-jesus-judas-of-minnesota
MishQuote Reply
Thanks, guys.
MeganQuote Reply
From the Rogers piece linked in the previous thread:
Despite the rumors of Hendry’s demise I’m getting the feeling he’s being given the chance to turn it around in the last year of his contract.
CormsQuote Reply
wut?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]wut?[/quote]
Maybe he’s buying prospects by sending money along with veterans
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Maybe he’s buying prospects by sending money along with veterans[/quote]Isn’t that what’s called selling? (dying laughing)
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]Isn’t that what’s called selling? (dying laughing)[/quote]
No way – only buyers are teams that are moving forward. This team is soaring, like the Hindenburg.
BerseliusQuote Reply
My only hope at this point is that all of the talk we are hearing now is spin so that they don’t get walked all over in trade talks. If they talk about how they don’t NEED to trade anyone, maybe the team in contention suddenly raises an offer because they are now the more desperate for a deal.
It’s unlikely, but if anyone can sell believing in the nonsense the Cubs are spilling right now, it is the Cubs backed by more than a century of stupidity just like this.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Well TBH, Hendry has a good track record in trades.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=Megan]Thanks, guys.[/quote]Megan, you are right. You are still in it. I accidentally greyed your entries in the spreadsheet, but that’s because I’m an idiot.
If the Cubs win today you and jherky will have predicted the correct record. You entered 95 RS and he had 116. They’ve scored 103. So for you to win outright, you’d need the Cubs to score fewer than 3 runs. You’d easily win the second tiebreaker so if the Cubs scored 2 today, they’d finish the month with 105 and you win. So you’re rooting for a 2-0 or 2-1 win today.
Thanks for correcting me. After the game today I’ll look over it more closely than I have so far to make sure the right person wins of course.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]MB is running this, so he can correct me if I’m wrong. But if I’m reading the entries correctly, since you have 11 wins, the Cubs need to win and score 2 runs or less in the process for you to win. If they score 3 or more in a victory, jherky wins the runs scored tie-breaker and the shirt.[/quote]You and I don’t often agree, but on this one, you are correct.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]Well TBH, Hendry has a good track record in trades.[/quote]
When he is allowed to take on money.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]My only hope at this point is that all of the talk we are hearing now is spin so that they don’t get walked all over in trade talks. If they talk about how they don’t NEED to trade anyone, maybe the team in contention suddenly raises an offer because they are now the more desperate for a deal.
It’s unlikely, but if anyone can sell believing in the nonsense the Cubs are spilling right now, it is the Cubs backed by more than a century of stupidity just like this.[/quote]
Right – I don’t blame him for public spin or creating some faux leverage, but it’s just sometimes upsetting to here that the front office’s rhetoric doesn’t match the observed on-field play (the Cubs aren’t much different from any other team on this, though).
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]My only hope at this point is that all of the talk we are hearing now is spin so that they don’t get walked all over in trade talks. If they talk about how they don’t NEED to trade anyone, maybe the team in contention suddenly raises an offer because they are now the more desperate for a deal.
It’s unlikely, but if anyone can sell believing in the nonsense the Cubs are spilling right now, it is the Cubs backed by more than a century of stupidity just like this.[/quote]Yeah, I couldn’t care less what Hendry or someone else in the organization says. They could say they’re having a fire sale and I’m not going to jump for joy. I don’t care if they say they’re going to contend this season. I don’t care what they tell the media and/or fans. Not only would announcing a fire sale be retarded, it would also be the first team ever to do so. For good reason.
We know they’re not going to have one of those and I’m not sure they really can in the traditional sense of the word. The Cubs have two or three players they can get decent value for. The rest of salary dumps.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]Well TBH, Hendry has a good track record in trades.[/quote]Actually, BtB did and analysis of WAR added vs. WAR sent away in trades since 2006, and the Cubs are worst in the NL, and 5th worse in MLB, since 2006. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/12/31/1905244/war-on-the-move-gaining-and-losing-via-trade
Of course, that precludes Hendry’s acquisition of Ramirez, but even he can’t make up a -34 WAR trade deficit.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Except for being a little bullish on Castro, things are going exactly as planned. Watch as the Cubs lose 10-14 today.
ACTQuote Reply
Here’s Jim Hendry’s record on trades through the 2009 season: http://www.anothercubsblog.net/2010-articles/january/jim-hendry-trades.html
I’ve been meaning to update that as well as the free agents. Perhaps I’ll do that this next week, but that link MO posted above is nonsense. They’ve been -5 WAR in trades since 2006. And why the hell would we break it down like that? Hendry has been the GM a lot longer than that. He’s been about +26 from 2003 through 2009. The guy is good at trading players.
Take the MIlton Bradley situation as an example. NOBODY thought Hendry could get shit for him and he turned Milton Bradley into saving money AND he got a pretty good season out of Carlos Silva. With the money they saved by dealing Bradley they signed Marlon Byrd who had a very good season last year.
Hendry doesn’t get screwed in trades.
Still, if he’s on the hot seat as some have said, there’s no reason to allow him to be the GM around the trade deadline. I still think he gets a promotion and eventually takes Crane Kenney’s job.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Actually, BtB did and analysis of WAR added vs. WAR sent away in trades since 2006, and the Cubs are worst in the NL, and 5th worse in MLB, since 2006. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/12/31/1905244/war-on-the-move-gaining-and-losing-via-trade
Of course, that precludes Hendry’s acquisition of Ramirez, but even he can’t make up a -34 WAR trade deficit.[/quote]
.[/quote]That guy included Josh fucking Hamilton who the Cubs NEVER even had on their team for one freaking second. The Cubs drafted him FOR the Reds. That entire article is bullshit. Once I saw Hamilton I laughed.
I knew the numbers were wrong to begin with based on the research I’ve done, which included many more trades than that guy has and he’s simply wrong.
mb21Quote Reply
2006 through 2009 trades. Any list that does not have these names is wrong. Period.
Corey Patterson 4.4 Nate Spears and Carlos Perez 0
1/25/2006 Cash 0 Angel Pagan 1.2
3/28/2006 Todd Wellemeyer -0.1 Zach McCormack and Lincoln Holdzkom 0
3/31/2006 John Koronka and cash (Rangers) 0.3 Freddie Bynum (A’s) -0.1
5/31/2006 Jerry Hairston 0.2 Phil Nevin and cash 0.5
6/26/2006 Mark Watson 0 PTBNL 0
7/22/2006 Scott Williamson -0.3 Fabian Jimenez Angulo and Joel Santo 0
7/31/2006 Greg Maddux 1.6 Cesar Izturis -0.6
7/31/2006 Todd Walker 0.8 Jose Ceda 0
8/20/2006 Neifi Perez -0.3 Chris Robinson 0
8/31/2006 Phil Nevin and cash -0.1 PTBNL: Adam Harben 0
11/16/2006 David Aardsma and Carlos Vasquez -0.3 Neal Cotts -0.1
12/6/2006 Freddie Bynum -1.2 PTBNL: Kevin Hart 0.5
2/13/2007 Jae Kuk Ryu -0.7 Andrew Lopez and Greg Reinhard 0
3/29/2007 Tomas Perez 0 PTBNL 0
6/20/2007 Michael Barrett and cash -1 Rob Bowen and Kyler Burke -0.4
7/4/2007 John Nelson 0 PTBNL 0
7/15/2007 Bo Hart 0 PTBNL 0
7/16/2007 Rob Bowen and Jerry Blevins 0.8 Jason Kendall and cash -0.1
7/19/2007 Cesar Izturis 0 Cash 0
8/23/2007 PTBNL: Clay Rapada 0 Craig Monroe and cash -0.5
8/30/2007 Buck Coats 0 PTBNL: Marcus Mateo 0
8/31/2007 Rocky Cherry and Scott Moore -1.6 Steve Trachsel -0.6
11/12/2007 Jacque Jones -0.6 Omar Infante 0
11/13/2007 Craig Monroe -0.8 PTBNL 0
12/4/2007 Will Ohman and Omar Infante 2.3 Jose Ascanio 0.1
1/5/2008 Angel Pagan 3.5 Ryan Meyers and Corey Coles 0
7/8/2008 Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Josh Donaldson -1 Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin 3.5
8/7/2008 Scott Eyre 0.8 Brian Schlitter 0
12/31/2008 Mark DeRosa 1.3 Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub -0.3
1/6/2009 Jason Marquis 3.1 Luis Vizcaino 0.2
1/18/2009 Felix Pie 1.4 Garrett Olson and Henry williamson 0
1/28/2009 Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno -1.7 Aaron Heilman 0.6
2/2/2009 Michael Wuertz 2.3 Richie Robnett and Justin Sellers 0
2/2/2009 Rich Hill -1.6 PTBNL 0
5/8/2009 Joey Gathright 0 Ryan Freel -0.2
7/3/2009 Al Alburquerque 0 Jeff Baker 1.7
7/6/2009 Ryan Freel 0.1 PTBNL 0
7/30/2009 Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio -1.6 Tom Gorzelanny, John Grabow 0.2
11/19/2009 Aaron Heilman Ryne White and Scott Maine
12/3/2009 Aaron Miles and Jake Fox Jeff Gray, Matt Spencer and Ronny Morla
12/18/2009 Milton Bradley Carlos Silva
mb21Quote Reply
Here’s all that guy has from 2006 through 2011:
David Aardsma 1.4 Kevin Hart 0.5
Carlos Vasquez 0 Neal Cotts -0.1
Jerry Hariston Jr. 2.6 Adam Harben 0
Todd Wellemeyer 0.7 Phil Nevin 0.5
Jon Leicester -0.3 Lincoln Holdzkom 0
Corey Patterson 2.8 Zach McCormack 0
Josh Hamilton 15.7 Clint Brannon 0
Greg Maddux 4.2 Ceasar Izturis -0.6
Phil Nevin -0.1 Nate Spears 0
Todd Walker 0.6 Jose Ceda 0
Scott Williamson -0.3 Fabian Jiminez 0
John Koronka -0.3 Freddie Bynum -0.1
Joel Santo 0
Carlos Perez 0
FAIL!
mb21Quote Reply
You ought to send him that stuff, MB. I didn’t realize how selective he’d been. Jeebus.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Hamilton is half the WAR deficit. (dying laughing) No wonder the Cubs look so bad. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Here’s all that guy has from 2006 through 2011:
David Aardsma 1.4 Kevin Hart 0.5
Carlos Vasquez 0 Neal Cotts -0.1
Jerry Hariston Jr. 2.6 Adam Harben 0
Todd Wellemeyer 0.7 Phil Nevin 0.5
Jon Leicester -0.3 Lincoln Holdzkom 0
Corey Patterson 2.8 Zach McCormack 0
Josh Hamilton 15.7 Clint Brannon 0
Greg Maddux 4.2 Ceasar Izturis -0.6
Phil Nevin -0.1 Nate Spears 0
Todd Walker 0.6 Jose Ceda 0
Scott Williamson -0.3 Fabian Jiminez 0
John Koronka -0.3 Freddie Bynum -0.1
Joel Santo 0
Carlos Perez 0
FAIL![/quote]
Not that I disagree with you, but methinks you missed the year tabs at the bottom…
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]You ought to send him that stuff, MB. I didn’t realize how selective he’d been. Jeebus.[/quote]I don’t really care, MO. I feel somewhat bad for the people who will go there and accept misinformation as actual information, but I don’t care enough to contact the guy. It’s his mistake. I’d like to think that some other fans will look over the spreadsheet he put together and tell him how much he fucked up, but I’m not holding my breath.
Before I even bother contacting him I’m going to update it with trades made after January 2010 as well as update the free agent values. I also want to take another look at projections and then adjust the value for expected inflation at the time the player was signed. That part is a lot of work so that’s going to take some time. I can get the other two parts done in the next couple weeks. I have all the past Marcels going back to 1970 so it will just take some organizing to get that part done. A lot of organizing. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Hamilton is half the WAR deficit. (dying laughing) No wonder the Cubs look so bad. (dying laughing)[/quote]I have them at about -5 from 2006 through 2009. Add in Bradley and Silva and that’s probably a 2-win shift at least. I just wonder how much of all the other teams are wrong too. If he fucked up the Cubs that much, he undoubtedly fucked up every team.
They have the transactions mlb.com. It’s really simple to get then and inexcusable to publish something like that with that many errors. The problem is though, it took a shitload of work to just do Jim Hendry. It would take a ridiculous amount of work for one person to do all 30 GMs over that span. It’s not really possible so I do wonder where he got his transactions.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]Not that I disagree with you, but methinks you missed the year tabs at the bottom…[/quote]Yep. You’re right. I should have seen that. Stupid me. It does appear he has them. I’m going to look through it. I’m guessing he used Fangraphs and that could explain the difference. Fangraphs loves Ricky Nolasco and rWAR does not. If we figure 15 of the 30ish WAR is Hamilton and can be thrown out immediately, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nolasco made up the other 10 that I don’t have.
mb21Quote Reply
Holy crap. That guy did a shitload of work. I can see why he chose to just include any player when it said traded because you can’t know enough about each team so I take back what I said. His numbers are wrong because it includes trades that shouldn’t be included, but the man did his work. Well done.
mb21Quote Reply
But I do think they aren’t dealing anyone of value. Marmol will still be a Cub. Garza and Marshall too.
The guys I can realistically see them dealing that aren’t salary dumps are Pena and maybe Soto. Pena because he’s only a one-year deal and Soto because I wonder if the Cubs are tiring of him. He doesn’t seem to be in Quade’s doghouse like he was with Lou for whatever reason, but I just don;t get the impression that the Cubs really like Geo much anymore.
Aisle424Quote Reply
But it also doesn’t consider trades like Lilly and Theriot. He obviously knew we would lose WAR there, but the purpose was to save money avoid another arb (Theriot).
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]But I do think they aren’t dealing anyone of value. Marmol will still be a Cub. Garza and Marshall too.
The guys I can realistically see them dealing that aren’t salary dumps are Pena and maybe Soto. Pena because he’s only a one-year deal and Soto because I wonder if the Cubs are tiring of him. He doesn’t seem to be in Quade’s doghouse like he was with Lou for whatever reason, but I just don;t get the impression that the Cubs really like Geo much anymore.[/quote]
I agree with your Cubs POV on Soto, but I still think they hold onto him, for whatever reason. I think if Hendry trades (or tries to, anyways) Byrd or Dempster, that’s about as far down the rabbit hole we will go (and I’d be okay with that).
MishQuote Reply
The only bad trade I can see from his analysis is Angel Pagan.
He has Omar Infante as a Cub, but he never played a game with us. He was traded in less than a month. You can’t count this either.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I agree with your Cubs POV on Soto, but I still think they hold onto him, for whatever reason. I think if Hendry trades (or tries to, anyways) Byrd or Dempster, that’s about as far down the rabbit hole we will go (and I’d be okay with that).[/quote]
Dempster isn’t going anywhere. Even if they wanted to trade him (which I don’t think they do), he has the NTC and he will exercise it. He isn’t going to move his daughter away from her doctors at this point. There are times when guys say they don’t want to be traded because they think that is what the fans want to hear, but I’m fairly certain Dempster means it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Dempster isn’t going anywhere. Even if they wanted to trade him (which I don’t think they do), he has the NTC and he will exercise it. He isn’t going to move his daughter away from her doctors at this point. There are times when guys say they don’t want to be traded because they think that is what the fans want to hear, but I’m fairly certain Dempster means it.[/quote]
Well then, let’s get our 10 year plans ready.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]But I do think they aren’t dealing anyone of value. Marmol will still be a Cub. Garza and Marshall too.
The guys I can realistically see them dealing that aren’t salary dumps are Pena and maybe Soto. Pena because he’s only a one-year deal and Soto because I wonder if the Cubs are tiring of him. He doesn’t seem to be in Quade’s doghouse like he was with Lou for whatever reason, but I just don;t get the impression that the Cubs really like Geo much anymore.[/quote]Yeah, I doubt they deal Garza, Marshall or Marmol and if the team believes they can contend in the future they probably shouldn’t. The question is whether or not they can contend in the near future and I think most of us think they cannot. I just don’t see the Cubs ever admitting that regardless of who the GM is.
I don’t see the Cubs trading Soto either. He’s a valuable player and the Cubs don’t have anybody to replace him.
Ramirez isn’t going anywhere because his team option becomes guaranteed if he’s traded. No way any team takes him. I think Fukudome and Pena are sure to be traded. I also think we’ll see Jeff Baker and/or Blake DeWitt gone, but neither has much value. I think Carlos Zambrano gets traded. He all but asked for a trade. The Cubs will have to pay about half his contract, but I think they’ll be happy to do so. I think it’s about 50/50 that Byrd gets traded. A month or so ago I would have said it was probably likely, but with Brett Jackson now sucking it’s much less likely.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs pay some team $50 million to take Soriano. I doubt it happens, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Dempster isn’t going anywhere. Even if they wanted to trade him (which I don’t think they do), he has the NTC and he will exercise it. He isn’t going to move his daughter away from her doctors at this point. There are times when guys say they don’t want to be traded because they think that is what the fans want to hear, but I’m fairly certain Dempster means it.[/quote]I’m OK with keeping Dempster. I’d trade Garza and Zambrano and you need an experienced starter around. Dempster is good and will give you 200 innings. He’s also not making a ton of money.
mb21Quote Reply
I think given the Red Sox’s slump and a perceived need for pitching, I’d like to see Z as a Red Sox.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]The only bad trade I can see from his analysis is Angel Pagan.
He has Omar Infante as a Cub, but he never played a game with us. He was traded in less than a month. You can’t count this either.[/quote]
I’d count Infante. He was on the roster unlike Josh Hamilton. in my analysis, I included any player who was on the roster.
Someone up above mentioned Lilly and it brings up another point that must be considered. The Cubs saved money by trading Lilly. Some times you spend money and some times you save it. That has to be considered in the analysis. I didn’t do it the first time, but I do want to expand it further. The problem is that there’s always something that can be done to improve the analysis. I just have to figure out what is the most important parts and leave it at that.
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t see the Red Sox going after Zambrano. I don’t see any AL team doing so because he’d get lit up in the AL. You also lose his value you get from him hitting, which is important.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t see the Red Sox going after Zambrano. I don’t see any AL team doing so because he’d get lit up in the AL. You also lose his value you get from him hitting, which is important.[/quote]
That’s a fair point. It’d be interesting to see whether Z ends up as a D’Back or a Giant but I don’t see them wanting to take on salary either, even if the Cubs pay for it.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Since I’m a bit annoyed by today’s facebook travails, I’d like to point out that this kid:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16357007&source=MLB&gid=2011_06_28_sfnmlb_chnmlb_1
can throw better than Campana.
/cool story bro
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It seems to me that another problem with simply comparing WAR on both sides of a trade is that condending teams making trades aren’t necessarily asking “will this player be worth more overall?” but “will this player get us to the playoff now?” It’s possible for a contending team to benefit from a trade even if the player they give away (e.g., a prospect) is worth more down the road.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]It seems to me that another problem with simply comparing WAR on both sides of a trade is that condending teams making trades aren’t necessarily asking “will this player be worth more overall?” but “will this player get us to the playoff now?” It’s possible for a contending team to benefit from a trade even if the player they give away (e.g., a prospect) is worth more down the road.[/quote]
You can also argue that many of the prospects traded have not even had the chance to make it to the majors or haven’t been able to make any impact.
By just counting WAR, trading Angel Pagan when they did straight up for Starlin Castro would at this moment be seen as a loss.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
If Cubs win today, not only does someone win an OV T-shirt, but the Cubs will have the third-worst record in MLB all to themselves as the Royals are idle! *victory*
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Is next year supposed to be a good year talent wise in the draft? Just curious if the 116th ranked player would be good value at #3? (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]Is next year supposed to be a good year talent wise in the draft? Just curious if the 116th ranked player would be good value at #3? (dying laughing)[/quote]
I haven’t really searched for a prospect list yet but I’m guessing they don’t really set them up for another couple months…
I hope Z wins today. And if the Cubs are to lose, they can’t do it until Z is out of the game. It’s gonna happen!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
cdwQuote Reply
cdwQuote Reply
delete
cdwQuote Reply
Has anybody done a You’ve Been Warned? How about “I don’t usually watch you, but when I do, you’ve been warned.”
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]Is next year supposed to be a good year talent wise in the draft? Just curious if the 116th ranked player would be good value at #3? (dying laughing)[/quote]
Not as good as this year’s draft, but this was a once-a-decade draft in terms of depth. There are two prep arms I REALLY like at the top of the board, along with a couple of college players.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Not as good as this year’s draft, but this was a once-a-decade draft in terms of depth. There are two prep arms I REALLY like at the top of the board, along with a couple of college players.[/quote]
Yeah, but I mean out of the pool of talent the Cubs woudl look at…
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Yeah, but I mean out of the pool of talent the Cubs woudl look at…[/quote]
They’re going to draft that kid in the bleachers on Tuesday #3 next year. Done deal sealed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
1. (dying laughing)
2. Gotta go for that “Good record in the second half of the season.”
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Yeah, but I mean out of the pool of talent the Cubs woudl look at…[/quote]
It’s still worse. The 100th ranked player in next year’s draft would have been 120th this year.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Maybe I’m crazy but didn’t fangraphs used to have BB%/k% for pitchers?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2790&position=P#advanced
MishQuote Reply
cdwQuote Reply
cdw is on a roll.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Did you ever consider the Big Gulp and bologna sandwich, or was that nixed?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
KG
Reggie Golden, OF, Cubs (Short-season Boise): 3-for-3, 2B, R, BB, SB. Crazy tools picks from last year is not looking nearly as raw as expected; .326/.420/.535 in 12 games.
MishQuote Reply
Fixed.
MuckerQuote Reply
cdw loves the new meme. How did it take so long for that to appear here?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Maybe I’m crazy but didn’t fangraphs used to have BB%/k% for pitchers?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2790&position=P#advanced%5B/quote%5DThey've been using BB/9 and K/9 as long as I can remember (tradition, I guess).
ACTQuote Reply
Yeah I know they had the per/9 stats, but I thought they were available there (I know they are at StatCorner).
MishQuote Reply
Fuke RF
Barn 2B
Cassie SS
Rami 3B
‘Los 1B
Blakey LF
Campy CF
Hilly C
Z P
The Cubs are doing their best to score no more than 2 runs for Megan.
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://www.flickr.com/photos/benyankee/5888499894/
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Fuke RF
Barn 2B
Cassie SS
Rami 3B
‘Los 1B
Blakey LF
Campy CF
Hilly C
Z P
The Cubs are doing their best to score no more than 2 runs for Megan.[/quote]
Blakey and Campy made runs happen last night! And all Soto does is walk, so he’s obviously not as good as Hilly, who hits homers that make no sense.
Let’s see what happens.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Blakey and Campy made runs happen last night! [/quote]
You have to ride the hot hand
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]
2. Gotta go for that “Good record in the second half of the season.”[/quote]Buddy thinks it’s 1981.
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]KG
Reggie Golden, OF, Cubs (Short-season Boise): 3-for-3, 2B, R, BB, SB. Crazy tools picks from last year is not looking nearly as raw as expected; .326/.420/.535 in 12 games.[/quote]
That has to be the best 12 game stretch he’s put together so far in his pro career. He wasn’t doing anything of note in EXST.
Chris DickersonQuote Reply
[quote name=Chris Dickerson]That has to be the best 12 game stretch he’s put together so far in his pro career. He wasn’t doing anything of note in EXST.[/quote]
He sure looks ready for Peoria.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
MB, you need to supply these guys with a picture of you so they can do these memes about you.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]MB, you need to supply these guys with a picture of you so they can do these memes about you.[/quote]
You’ve never seen MB’s picture?
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]You’ve never seen MB’s picture?
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
That would be awesome if that’s really him.
MuckerQuote Reply
Z @ 92 mph so far.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
That would be awesome if that’s really him.[/quote]
I’m kidding. This is him:
Aisle424Quote Reply
Of course, I’m kidding again. That’s me.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Shit, I had no idea Burrell was a #1 pick.
MuckerQuote Reply
Jesus, that guy would creep me out.
MuckerQuote Reply
That was a long inning. Z needs a quick one next frame.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Ramirez isn’t going anywhere because his team option becomes guaranteed if he’s traded. [/quote]
False.
He gets $1m
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
(dying laughing), Cub’d
BerseliusQuote Reply
5 years/$75M (2007-11), plus 2012 club option
re-signed by Cubs as a free agent 11/06
$5M signing bonus
07:$8M, 08:$14M, 09:$15.65M, 10:$15.75M, 11:$14.6M player option, 12:$16M club option ($2M buyout)
full no-trade clause 2007-10, $1M assignment bonus if traded
Ramirez has right to void contract after 2010 & become a free agent
award bonuses: $75,000 each for Gold Glove or All Star selection, $0.25M for LCS MVP, $0.3M for MVP,$0.35M for WS MVP
Ramirez may void 2012 option, but doing so forfeits $2M buyout
2012 option becomes guaranteed if Ramirez:
wins one MVP in 2007-11, or
places 2nd or 3rd in MVP vote twice in 2007-11, or
wins LCS MVP once in 2007-11, or
is an All Star 3 times in 2007-11, or
is traded & Ramirez exercises 2011 option
Ramirez exercised 2011 player option 11/10
So the trade will guarantee him 2012 option, unless he waives it, in which case he also forfeits a $2MM buyout. Interesting contract setup.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
TheHawk!
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Oh shit…who’s hurt?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Whoa, WTF is Z injured?
BerseliusQuote Reply
Maybe it’s just cramps
BerseliusQuote Reply
It’s really fucking hot today…I wonder if it’s just cramps or if he actually pulled something.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Maybe it’s just cramps[/quote][quote name=Rice Cube]It’s really fucking hot today…I wonder if it’s just cramps or if he actually pulled something.[/quote]
berselius —->
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
If someone stumbled onto this site yesterday, they’d be so confused.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Sounds like Z’s back is the problem.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Bruce Miles says everyone booed him as he left. What class.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Marcos Mateo in the game with nobody out in the 2nd; this should end well.
I predict John Grabow throws at least 60 pitches today, hopefully in more than one inning of work.
Chris DickersonQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]If someone stumbled onto this site yesterday, they’re probably a faget.[/quote].
MishQuote Reply
Mateo? I didn’t know he was still on the team.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Bruce Miles says everyone booed him as he left. What class.[/quote]Not everyone, but I heard quite a few boos. Maybe fans were still sore after the throwing error.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]Mateo? I didn’t know he was still on the team.[/quote]He was brought back recently.
ACTQuote Reply
Whose worse: Giants offense or Cubs offense?
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]You’ve never seen MB’s picture?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Chris Dickerson]Marcos Mateo in the game with nobody out in the 2nd; this should end well.
I predict John Grabow throws at least 60 pitches today, hopefully in more than one inning of work.[/quote]
Shut you right up.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]Whose worse: Giants offense or Cubs offense?[/quote]Probably the Giants offense, but I do think it’s close.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]Mateo? I didn’t know he was still on the team.[/quote]
Brought him back and sent down LeMahieu in between the doubleheader games. Then they released Davis to make room for Barney.
Aisle424Quote Reply
After scoring something like 30 runs over the past couple days, the Mets can’t touch Justin Verlander.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]You can also argue that many of the prospects traded have not even had the chance to make it to the majors or haven’t been able to make any impact.
By just counting WAR, trading Angel Pagan when they did straight up for Starlin Castro would at this moment be seen as a loss.[/quote]That’s something I’m going to consider in the near future.
I don’t mind looking at as a plus/minus type of thing because overall, trades should not benefit the other team more than your team. One trade may be beneficial for a team in the short run, but not in the long run. However, that short term gain may be all that the team cares about and they got what they wanted. however, if you’re constantly giving away more WAR than you’re getting then you’re not doing it right. Over the length of Hendry’s contract we can quibble certain deals of course, but there are enough trades that the overall WAR going one direction and coming to the Cubs is a pretty good method to look at how good he’s been. That’s true as long as we consider a couple of things and one of them is future production. For deals back in 2002 and 2003, it doesn’t matter because we already know what those guys did. For deals in 2007, 2008 and after it’s important.
mb21Quote Reply
http://blogs.riverfronttimes.com/dailyrft/2011/06/colby_rasmus_sabermetrics_nerd.php
MishQuote Reply
If Z misses his start, who would make that start?
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]If Z misses his start, who would make that start?[/quote]Jeff Samardzija?
mb21Quote Reply
Koyie is on fire.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Jeff Samardzija?[/quote]Really? Damn.
MuckerQuote Reply
Everytime I look at this roster, I think of the contruction worker in “Major League” when he says “These guys don’t look so fuckin good”
MuckerQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ TheHawk pictures. That’s a blast from the past.
PerkinsQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]Really? Damn.[/quote]I don’t know if it would be him or not. I can’t think of anybody else. It’s really too bad McNutt had all those injury issues and then decided to suck.
mb21Quote Reply
Bob Brenly said Starlin should “swing at anything close to the zone.” Really? With a full count and the bases loaded? You want a walk in that situation. Starlin was being over-aggressive there (predictably). If he lays off the bad pitch, he’s on first with an RBI.
ACTQuote Reply
If there’s one thing I’d “fix” about Starlin’s hitting, it would be to correct his “swing at everything with 2 strikes” approach.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Maybe I’m crazy but didn’t fangraphs used to have BB%/k% for pitchers?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2790&position=P#advanced%5B/quote%5DI don’t think so. It’s always kind of annoyed me.
mb21Quote Reply
Wow that was a total fail.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t think so. It’s always kind of annoyed me.[/quote]I also don’t like how the hitter’s K% is per at-bat rather than plate appearance.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]If there’s one thing I’d “fix” about Starlin’s hitting, it would be to correct his “swing at everything with 2 strikes” approach.[/quote]His patience seems to have improved slightly over the last month, but he still seems to swing at a lot more than he should.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I also don’t like how the hitter’s K% is per at-bat rather than plate appearance.[/quote]IBB should also be excluded. I’d also include HBP. For me, I want BB% to be this: (BB+HBP-IBB)/(PA-IBB)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]If there’s one thing I’d “fix” about Starlin’s hitting, it would be to correct his “swing at everything with 2 strikes” approach.[/quote]
He had no choice. That pitch was strike three anyway. The 3-1 pitch was also a strike.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]IBB should also be excluded. I’d also include HBP. For me, I want BB% to be this: (BB+HBP-IBB)/(PA-IBB)[/quote]This
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]If there’s one thing I’d “fix” about Starlin’s hitting, it would be to correct his “swing at everything with 2 strikes” approach.[/quote]What’s his bad ball hitting average? Seems like he’s okay at making contact on bad pitches, but maybe not. I don’t know if that’s a good strategy, though.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]He had no choice. That pitch was strike three anyway. The 3-1 pitch was also a strike.[/quote]That may be. I wasn’t so much referring to that pitch as his approach in general (and expressing disagreement with Brenly’s comment).
ACTQuote Reply
I’d also like to see K/BB replaced with K%-BB%.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]That may be. I wasn’t so much referring to that pitch as his approach in general (and expressing disagreement with Brenly’s comment).[/quote]
I agree with you. In this particular AB, though, Castro was very patient and then had to go into protect mode. Just didn’t work out.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Wow, the Giants make Marcos Mateo look like Felix Hernandez.
ACTQuote Reply
April 91st!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Wow. I…. did not see this coming.
Chris DickersonQuote Reply
This is the first time I’ve heard Grateful Dead during a Cubs game. More of that, please.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Chris Dickerson]Wow. I…. did not see this coming.[/quote]Well, Jeff Samardzija is in now so…
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]This is the first time I’ve heard Grateful Dead during a Cubs game. More of that, please.[/quote]
Co-signed – what song?
MishQuote Reply
Today’s Cubs lineup has 4 players with a .345+ OBP (Zambrano is in that). The Giants have none. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
Megan needs a couple of runs soon.
Aisle424Quote Reply
new shit
mb21Quote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/theres-still-nothing-wrong-with-ryan-dempster.html
mb21Quote Reply