Now that Dusty Baker has won the World Series since most of the world outside of Houston, Texas, refuses to acknowledge the team he managed, trades can be made with impunity and we’re less than a week from full blown free agency (though teams can sign their own outgoing free agents, like the Mets just did with Edwin Diaz). Before we dive into the free agency wish list again (you can read back if you’d like for some of the suggested names to target), here’s something else from Passan that might be intriguing, assuming you can read through the entire thing:
Aside from the usual narrative of a successful campaign and team building and us-versus-the-universe, there was one bit that would be relevant to us Cubs fans:
The Astros and Chicago Cubs were in agreement on a trade to send star catcher Willson Contreras to the Astros for starter Jose Urquidy, four sources familiar with the deal told ESPN. The straight-up trade was agreed upon, pending owner approval. That approval never came.
… And when Click tried to execute the trade for Contreras — a pending free agent who is not regarded as a good defensive catcher but would’ve ably filled the hole at designated hitter that plagued the Astros during the postseason — another prominent name let his opposition be known: Dusty Baker.
“Much as I like Willson Contreras, Urquidy was one of our best pitchers then,” Baker said. “I needed a guy that wasn’t going to complain about not playing every day. And this is his [free agent] year. See, that’s tough. When you trade for a player in his [free agent] year. Everybody’s about numbers and stuff, and I can’t blame them, no doubt. But that’s not what we needed.”
Via Passan & ESPN
This harkens back to the discourse around the trade deadline that surrounded the narrative that Willson Contreras, despite his energy and his plus throwing arm, was not a good catcher. I will admit that I was happy when Contreras stuck with the Cubs past the trade deadline, and he can yet net the Cubs some compensation via the draft pick from him refusing the qualifying offer and then signing with *shudder* the Cardinals or something, or he can just be paid to be a DH and sometime catcher for a year if he accepts, or the Cubs might decide to throw him some cash and keep him around as a veteran clubhouse guy (would not object). But chances are he is gone, and a lot of it may be due to his devaluation as a primary catcher, considering how much time he spent as a DH this past season and also that narrative.
If the primary issue is pitch framing, then that is just a matter of poor timing since the automated strike zone is not among the rules coming for 2023 despite its effectiveness in minor league play so far. As seen on Baseball Savant’s catching leaderboards, Willson Contreras is dead even on framing runs in his time behind the dish (his brother William is a few runs worse, which was interesting). The two primary catchers during the Astros World Series, former Cubs legend Martin Maldonado and trade acquisition Christian Vázquez, were marginally better, so it’s not just the pitch framing that scuttled the would-be trade (we’ll get into that a bit later).
The thing with Willson is that his teammates love him, but the obstacle is that even with the obvious leadership and clubhouse chemistry, he has to also be good with the pitchers. For the most part, at least in public, the pitchers speak well of how Willson handles himself behind the plate, but I guess there’s more to catching than most of us realize (myself included, I’m not an expert) that he can’t provide as well as others. I think the consensus was that attempting to shoehorn in a catcher (who wasn’t actually that good at catching despite his best efforts) into an existing pitching staff during a pennant race would be disruptive, and that also reduced the chances that Willson would be traded.
When I took a look at the FanGraphs leaderboards (someone will have to help me out here because I don’t think it necessarily differentiates between PAs as a catcher vs other positions), the catcher with the highest wOBA was Willson Contreras when you consider those with at least Willson’s number of plate appearances. The guy I think the Cubs should target if they let Willson go is Omar Narváez, who his a plus framer per Baseball Savant, but hit worse than Yan Gomes this past season. While I think catchers should primarily handle the pitching staff to maintain their health and effectiveness, I would prefer that the spot not be a black hole in the lineup, but I guess you can’t have it all! And it’s not like you can count on Gomes or PJ Higgins to suddenly become offensive dynamos (and in Higgins’ case, to be a better defensive catcher).
As stated above, it really is too bad that the automated strike zone won’t come to MLB until at least 2024, because Willson’s arm and control of the running game could be an incredible weapon without having to worry about the umpire behind him calling pitches correctly. The bat is probably not elite enough to just hide him at first base, and I don’t know how he would be at other positions since those are pretty much spoken for (whether assuming new additions or the existing personnel).
So I think if the Cubs do retain Willson, they have to at least take advantage of what he is good at behind the plate even if he costs a number of strikes. The hope at that point is that the bat will continue to be All-Star level and compensate for the strikes/runs given up. Alternatively, as it seems a lot of teams are willing to do now, they should probably just sign Omar Narváez and do a timeshare with Yan Gomes, which will likely boost the pitching staff overall and make up for the runs that are lost when they come up to bat. For me personally, it does suck to potentially lose a long-time Cub who was loads of fun to watch play, but since I have no choice in the matter, this is the eventuality we have to prepare for. We’ll find out in less than two weeks what Willson does with the qualifying offer, and probably sooner whether the Cubs snag a new catcher (possibly through trade too, since the A’s are purposefully tanking anyway and Sean Murphy could use a new home) while juggling their roster in advance of the tender and Rule 5 protection deadlines.
Comments
Matt Mervis making a push for an Opening Day roster spot
https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1589406223165984769?t=Q8xpMQPyNJYurcWse3IPfw&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Re this part
I did glance over it earlier but I guess this implies that Willson is selfish about playing time, which, probably because he’s trying to play for a contract as he well should, but he’s never publicly shown any sort of me-firstness that I can perceive, so I guess this was kind of weird. However I do maintain that at least part of the objection probably had to do with catcher defense and ability to handle a staff, but again I don’t think any of the Cubs pitchers ever openly complained so maybe I’m just talking out of my ass.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I believe Twitter is still a few years younger than Tesla was when it became profitable, FWIW.
andcountingQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I think it’s more a generalization about players in contract years. I’m sure it’s a valid point to some degree, but it’s a weird reason to nix a trade. Kinda overlooks the fact that a player expecting a big FA contract is probably pretty good.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I think Urquidy only pitched in mop-up in the World Series so I guess that didn’t matter too much at that point, but having obviously won 100+ games and nearly run the table through the postseason, even if the reasoning (spoken to press) is suspect, you can’t argue with the results.
For me, I think Willson does enough that the pitchers aren’t openly revolting against him and he probably doesn’t hurt the staff too much (at least in terms of framing runs). It’s kind of like a fine line between letting Mike Piazza stay behind the plate as long as he did (but he’s Mike Piazza) but then telling guys like Mike Napoli or Kyle Schwarber to try something else. I know Willson is not Piazza, but the bat plays well enough that they could just let him stay behind the plate and I wouldn’t object. I guess I’m just trying to will him staying with the Cubs but again preparing for him to leave…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
One thing you guys in the know can let me know as well is whether the analytics are showing more traffic to this here website given my recent attempts to funnel more manure onto the internet.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This.
Which is why I think a 3-4 ur contract is totally worth it.
Seems like mlb had traded the DH for a nonproductive C. So we’re still at an 8 man lineup and a sure out. Might as well have Arrieta come back as a C. I mean, the Astros could have had a P bat as well as Martín Maldonado.
BVSQuote Reply
Have to say though that I would have made the Urquidy for Willson trade hands down, but with tears in my eyes.
BVSQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
There’s a 100% increase in dmick traffic and a 50% increase in BVS traffic. OV now outranks ACB again.
BVSQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Yes. It was a couple weeks ago that I checked it out at the host’s portal and traffic had definitely spiked. You’ve also increased my interest in baseball from none to having watched much of the postseason. I’m amazed at the turnover in baseball. 2-3 years without paying any attention to baseball and 50% of the players I had never heard of. It’s kind of a daunting task to get back into baseball after some time away. So thanks for helping me with that.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’m just waiting for the Ricketts to sell the team to a less evil billionaire before I jump back in completely but I can’t quit the Cubs
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Anyone interested in an occasional open thread to discuss whatever is on your mind? I’m not ready to try any twitter alternatives yet, but I wouldn’t mind an Elon-free place to vent.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
We could just keep doing it in the active thread until I come up with some more new shit (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I’m okay with that, but I didn’t want to hijack your threads. Not that we have a ton of discussion around here anymore, but I don’t mind setting up a separate thread either. Let’s see if anyone else has any insight.
I see I need to change the time. Forgot about that.
dmick89Quote Reply
New comments might be a bit out of order for the next hour. Time is updated.
Never mind.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hm, I guess we’re using Central Time eh?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Yeah, figure it’s a Cubs blog.
dmick89Quote Reply
New awards finalists, the suspense is relatively nonexistent
https://www.mlb.com/news/bbwaa-awards-finalists-2022
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Happy Election Day, which could turn into “Yay Democracy is Saved Day” or “We Are All Fucked Day”
It could go either way
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Either way, I’m drinking a lot of beer tonight.
PerkinsQuote Reply
The trade rumors are already flying, so whenever we can either pod or the GM meetings end (whichever comes first I guess) I’ll see what we can do to summarize all the stuff
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
God’s time
berseliusQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Now that Dan Snyder might relinquish his grip on the WFT, I fully expect him to troll everyone by selling his team to 45
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Given how most rich bastards won’t do what’s right unless it is legislated, I do hope for some good news by the end of next week
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Quick reminder of the dates to keep track of. If nothing concrete is reported, at least we will know who gets the qualifying offer by Thursday.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-offseason-key-dates-2022-23-free-agency-winter-meetings-spring-training-opening-day-2023-more/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Pretty good rundown of who is probably going to get the QO this year, including Willson of course:
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-how-the-one-year-19-65m-deal-works-and-candidates-to-receive-qo-this-offseason/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Motherfu…. (but we knew it was coming)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
And then there’s Abreu…
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/jose-abreu-high-on-cubs-wish-list-this-offseason/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I thought the Cubs had some prospect that was tearing up AAA.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Matt Mervis.
He will apparently have the opportunity to make the Opening Day roster, so they have options!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Remember how thrilling it was when the Cubs got Heyward? Then two years later, World Series. I demand to see something similar to at least one of those things this year.
andcountingQuote Reply
I’m not checking the results until tomorrow but feel free to let me know if we need to leave the country
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
We won’t know the exact details for days, but it may be safer just to leave the planet.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
That’s what Elon wants to do but he knows not what he does
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This is fun:
I played cricket a bunch in high school after the AP Calculus exam because my teacher was a big fan of it from New Zealand. Then in grad school I played it some more because there was a club comprised mostly of Indian and Pakistani students. Lots of fun, goofy as hell at the beginning but definitely enjoyable.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Train of thought with fresh excrement http://www.obstructedview.net/redefining-expectations-vs-the-flow-of-stupid-money/
Rice CubeQuote Reply