Redefining Expectations Vs. The Flow of Stupid Money

In Commentary And Analysis by Rice Cube49 Comments

We are at the lull between Major League Baseball contests, where winter leagues are not always accessible to the lay person, where we sit just under 100 days until spring training and 140ish days from Opening Day. While the GM meetings go forward in Vegas, we’ve already gotten a few snippets of what the Cubs are likely to do (at least what they’re willing to spew to reporters) that may make our ideal offseason more of a pipe dream after all.

I still think the Cubs will sign some rotation help, since they have proven capable of building a bullpen on the fly, but someone still has to eat five or six innings before going through the gauntlet. The Cubs have been connected to Japanese pitcher Kodai Senga, who is also getting perceived interest from many other clubs. If the crowdsourced contract is right, the Cubs have no reason not to acquire his services.

Even with Jason Heyward’s expiring contract and arbitration raises still on the payroll, if the Cubs land Senga, they still have around $100MM to play with before they skirt up against the first luxury tax threshold, and they should spend some of it for sure because the offense last year was abysmal. Along with pretty much everyone else, I anticipate Willson Contreras is gone despite how much I’d love him to stay. And when I look on the free agent list, I keep saying to myself that the Cubs should just sign one of the big name shortstops already.

That’s easier said than done, partly because it isn’t my money, and partly because the signals being given off by the Cubs to their reporter buddies is that they’re not going to commit to huge long-term contracts, at least not on the surface.

The Cubs will be involved in the deep end of the big-name shortstop market this winter, but they have no appetite for another Jason Heyward-length contract — and probably not even a contract for a year or two less than his eight-year deal. Especially given the fact that all of the Big 4 free agent shortstops are 28 or older. Look for maybe a five-year offer for Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts. The Cubs are said to be a serious player for Carlos Correa, too, but sources, perhaps obviously, say he’s seeking the lengthiest deal of the group, and that Cubs interest may wane in proportion to the number of years he seeks.

From Gordo

My first impression is that such a sentiment is incredibly cheap (when in reference to a team that should be swimming in money even if they cry poor), and my second impression is that it’s really stupid. Given the lack of other plausible bats on the market and what value the big three shortstops can provide in at least the first chunk of their contracts, if the Cubs want to be competitive, they will have to pony up. Even with a revamped rotation, the team needs to score runs to win games, and we can’t realistically expect a shutout or quality start every time up. There is a possibility that these guys will get caught up in massive bidding wars, although you never know if the owners and front offices are in double secret collusion.

The Cubs’ default position should be to maximize their available funds and ensure they land at least a Carlos Correa (no qualifying offer, and the youngest option available). They can do some fancy accounting if they need to, but this needs to happen or else the offense is most likely going to be mediocre, barring some major trades that I doubt will happen because they did just restock the farm.

Cubs Convention tickets go on sale soon, so hopefully they make it worthwhile for the fans to actually show up to both the winter festival and to actual games.

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  1. Author
    Rice Cube

    The Cubs should try some wagyu since it’s not like they do it all the time

    This seems more like a good top sirloin

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  2. Author
    Rice Cube

    Boras thinks they will spend, or at least they should:

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  6. dmick89

    Rice Cube,

    I forgot we had those asides. Is it formatted differently on desktop devices on the home page?

    There was a time going back to ACB where we’d have 5-8 posts a day and I created those asides for really simple posts that stood out from the rest.

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  9. dmick89

    Rice Cube,

    It would have been category based. I’ll have to check out the css file. It’s possible I removed those edits at some point or maybe equally possible that WordPress made some changes as well.

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  10. Author
    Rice Cube

    dmick89,

    Yeah it’s not a huge deal, I figured that shart was a fun little side thing to do while procrastinating on doing actual work and waiting to see if the Cubs actually have and will spend money

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  11. dmick89

    Rice Cube,

    It doesn’t look like my css additions are currently there. So I think I must have removed it at some point. It wasn’t a big deal. It was just some shading that highlighted it a bit, but honestly I used it mostly just for links I found interesting. If It’s something you think you’ll use more frequently I can dress it up a bit sometime in the next week, but I rather like how clean the front page looks as is. But if I’m outvoted or you’d really like me to do something, I will.

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  13. Author
    Rice Cube

    dmick89,

    Front page is fine methinks, you guys should really hunt down Josh for some Hope Monster stuff if he still cares (dying laughing)

    Also I just noticed the Cubby facepalm in the Wrigley outfield grass in the banner image, that’s gold

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  15. Author
    Rice Cube

    A couple days later, lots of races still too close to call, but it looks like the Democrats avoided a disaster so my way-too-simplistic view is that we just hunker down for another two years, wait for two more blocs of young voters to become eligible, and see what happens next…

    Kind of encouraged by the increased representation in the election winners though, kind of getting bored with old white guys all the time.

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  16. dmick89

    Rice Cube,

    I think it’s ultimately a mixed bag. Yeah, we avoided a fascist takeover, and pretty much a guarantee that in two years we’d be an entirely fascist country. I hope Democrats take a day to celebrate, but fascism barely got beat and I’m sure arguments could be made that if you don’t thoroughly kick its ass you’re not winning. Two years from now was always going to be the real test. I’m a little relieved right now, but no less scared for the future of this country. I hope Democrats fight like hell and make young issues their issues moving forward and starting today. Begin the process to legalize weed and grow that coalition. Same thing $15 minimum wage or better. M4All. Anything that is going to get young people excited to vote and not just voting to save their lives.

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  20. berselius

    dmick89:
    Rice Cube,

    It doesn’t look like my css additions are currently there. So I think I must have removed it at some point. It wasn’t a big deal. It was just some shading that highlighted it a bit, but honestly I used it mostly just for links I found interesting. If It’s something you think you’ll use more frequently I can dress it up a bit sometime in the next week, but I rather like how clean the front page looks as is. But if I’m outvoted or you’d really like me to do something, I will.

    Sounds like it should have been a Fanpost

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  21. andcounting

    dmick89,

    I have tempered hope that sometime within the next decade a major party decides to give credence to issues young people find important, ones that would indicate true progress.

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  23. Author
    Rice Cube

    Should we be interested in a Boxberger?

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  28. Author
    Rice Cube

    Rice Cube,

    As a check, this is the only Passan I follow, and I followed before the Elon Musk takeover, and this has been picked up by MLBTR who as far as I know has not been Musk contaminated, so it should be true.

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  31. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    They’ll need to drop a few more guys (including officially releasing Heyward) by Tuesday’s rostering deadline. You should be able to assume Heyward and Rafael Ortega are gone, maybe even Roberts since he’s had so little time and other rosters are probably too full to claim him.

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  32. andcounting

    The downfall of Twitter is pretty spectacular to behold. I imagine something resembling the exact same thing will emerge eventually but wow. (dying laughing) at Elon Musk’s dying reputation.

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  34. dmick89

    andcounting,

    It’s really incredible to be watching it in real time. Part of me wants to just turn away and say fuck it, but part of me is blown away at how incompetent you have to be to do what Elon is doing right now. It’s absolute proof that financial success doesn’t indicate above average intelligence.

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  41. Author
    Rice Cube

    New podcast to consider before the jabronii and I get together next week to do some World Series postmortem and sacrifice a baby seal to the baseball gods so the Cubs will spend some money already

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  44. andcounting

    Winning only one World Series title in the last one years was not enough to earn James Click an extension as Houston GM. Gotta do better, next guy.

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