The Cubs hold a slim one-game lead in the chase for the final NL wild card spot, just above the Marlins, who hold their head-to-head tiebreaker. The Cubs are also currently half a game behind Arizona, who also hold the tiebreaker. And somehow the Brewers still have not clinched the division, although it would be quite funny if the Cubs ran the table and the Brewers collapsed, unlikely as it may be.
If we assume the division is lost, based on the extreme unlikelihood that the Brewers lose every game and the Cubs sweep x2, then the most realistic finish is with the second or third NL wild card. We know the Cubs have to play three in Atlanta and then close out the season with three in Milwaukee, possibly the toughest schedule of the remaining contenders. At some point this week the Giants and Padres will likely eliminate themselves due to their head-to-head, and then it will just be the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Marlins, and Reds fighting for these spots.
There is some hope that certain bad teams with ok offensive game (Mets and Cardinals) could play spoiler, along with the recently struggling Astros trying to lock up their spot against Arizona. It starts with the Cubs winning both of these series if they can, but I’m not above asking for some help.