The Cubs were rained out of their series finale with the Reds on Wednesday, and since I’m bored until they return to Wrigley for a home stand on Friday, I thought I’d look at the statistics so far and draw some wildly inaccurate conclusions based on it since that’s how the media and bloggers like to do things. I am well aware it’s only been five games, that small sample size caveats apply, and that Dansby Swanson will not hit .500 for the season (unless he does for some reason, in which case I’ve always believed in you, Dansby), but actual professional writers and media people do this all the time, so why not me?
Take a look at the 2023 Cubs lines right now. Starting on the pitching side, the entire staff has an overall line with a 4.70 ERA, have generally kept the ball in the park despite our skepticism of the baseball’s composition (it’s probably juiced again, but who knows?), and have nearly three times more strikeouts than walks issued, which is nice. There were a few blow-up appearances from a couple relievers and the last three starts by Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly, and Hayden Wesneski have been disappointing, but again, one time through the rotation, plenty of season left. Looking at the FanGraphs line, the team generally is taking advantage of the great infield defense with a ground ball rate hovering around 50%, so that part of the plan is at least working alright. The problem is that when those balls find holes (huh huh) then the plan starts to unravel a bit, but such is the chaos that is baseball. It would be kind of fun if Adbert Alzolay, Michael Fulmer, and Mark Leiter Jr keep striking out 40%+ of all batters faced, but I doubt that continues. And obviously Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele won’t shut out the competition forever, but I’ll ride that as long as they can go.
On the batting side, the point of concern is the strikeout potential and the general lack of power and, well, ability. The nice thing to see early is that most of the regulars are keeping their strikeouts manageable, and are getting themselves on base, particularly riding Ian Happ’s silly 30% walk rate and Dansby’s crazy but totally sustainable .500 batting average. Given the last game when the offense remembered to score more than the pitching could give up, the batting line stands at a collective .273/.343/.398, for a 101 OPS+ and 103 wRC+, so they’re skirting the average. If, as we hoped in the preseason, this Cubs squadron can get better pitching performances coupled with their defense and an average-ish offense (even with Happ and Dansby coming back down to earth sometime in the near future, because they kinda have to, unless they don’t, which would probably be MVP-level seasons), then they can continue to steal wins, particularly when the Cardinals are scuffling a bit early and the Pirates are among the division leaders through this first week, because why not.
At some point Seiya Suzuki should return and give the team an actual outfielder instead of putting “insert player here” into the right field spot, and the offense will get another theoretically capable hitter. I think the back end of the rotation is better than they’ve shown in their first start, and we’ll find out together when play starts again to get a second go-through of the rotation plus a potential for some of the bats to wake up more.
Comments
I immediately hate it. I hate it even more than I hate it when umpires refuse to call a borderline ball on a 3-0 count or a borderline strike on an 0-2 count. And the reason I hate it even more is because it would be written in the rules that that’s what we want to do, give a guy a break when the consequences for following the rules sting too much.
andcountingQuote Reply
The only acceptable diversion from the pitch clock as it relates to end-of-game situations is if it’s applied to the entire 9th inning, and even then I don’t like it. But changing the dynamic for a single pitch or a handful of pitches simply because one team has their backs against the wall and effectively giving one player in a game-deciding situation an advantage (however slight) they wouldn’t have at any other point in the game is anti-competitive, not fair and completely weaksauce. I could maybe see if both managers had the option of waiving the pitch clock but they both had to agree to do it before the inning started, maybe. But suspend the rules for one pitch? That’s ludicrous.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
andcounting,
Tell us how you really feel (dying laughing)
I generally agree with everything you said and my immediate reaction was more “that’s something to think about” rather than acceptance, I feel like the rule is pretty clearly stated even if some umps are probably overstepping their bounds in ejecting guys who argue (but that is also implied by the rule) but it might remove some bellyaching about “the spirit of baseball” if a playoff game ends on an autopitch. But then again that might invite a whole other brand of controversy.
I feel like there have been enough, even if just a handful, of silly napping strikeouts that players know the league and the umps are serious so they probably aren’t going to change the rules, nor should they really. Just something that made me think before I rejected it outright.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Yeah, I mean you can always walk it back after being too strict. But it’s an up-cliff climb to get stricter after you relax the rules. I think the best way to guarantee it never becomes the deciding, final play of the game is to make it really obvious to the players that it could be.
andcountingQuote Reply
I’d rather it’s just all or nothing within game. I’d be okay for suspending it in the postseason, but even then I think I’d rather keep it.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Given that many postseason games ended after midnight on the East Coast, I think they’ll probably keep the rules intact save the ghost runner rule in extras
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Amazing –> http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/rewatching-gibson-eck-with-the-pitch-timer?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Please tell us how you really feel
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Sahadev did the early-season dive as well, has generally nice things to say, also thinks that bunt was stupid (but he was nicer about it)
https://theathletic.com/4385156/2023/04/06/cubs-david-ross-patrick-wisdom-great-start/?source=emp_shared_article
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
That at-bat was so ridiculous. Pretty wild that it held up to pitch-clock scrutiny, more or less. Vividly remember watching it live. Just another event that forever perverted my sense of reality. Totally worth it.
andcountingQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Kade has dedicated the last of his 15 minutes to being petty.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
He is, of course, technically correct
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs barely > rhinoceros
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I don’t know, Kade’s tweet kinda makes it sound like cheating was involved in the demolition of Kade’s weak-ass pitch when, in fact, cheating merely gave him the opportunity to demolish that weak-ass pitch without illegal assistance of any kind.
I think Kade’s correctness falls a bit short on its technical merits.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Like, maybe, “Hey, that guy cheated a year and a half ago” doesn’t save him from looking like an idiot whose parents named him Kade the way he thinks it does.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
andcounting,
I get why the “clean” players get mad but also given how hard it is just to hit a baseball, let alone recognize which pitch it is you can punish, you can’t attribute all that success to the roids, so yeah it’s petty, but I think it’s a justified pettiness
Rice CubeQuote Reply
All the Mets are breaking but I think they just also called up their catching prospect Alvarez so this should be interesting…
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/04/omar-narvaez-out-8-9-weeks-with-calf-strain.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dumping a Player The Right Way (R) via BN
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/04/06/would-the-cardinals-try-to-quickly-unload-tyler-oneill-for-pitching-after-this-weeks-drama/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I just ask myself, if he had struck him out every time, would he focus on the cheating aspect or the generational talent part?
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Porque no las dos (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
(dying laughing) because he hit it to the moon.
andcountingQuote Reply
New ish http://www.obstructedview.net/series-preview-texas-rangers-4-2-at-chicago-cubs-2-3/
berseliusQuote Reply