Series Preview: Texas Rangers (4-2) at Chicago Cubs (2-3)

In Series Previews by berselius96 Comments

The Rangers are one of many good to great teams that the Cubs will face in the month of April. At least from a wins and losses perspective, they will miss deGrom in this series. Though as a more general baseball fan I am a bit bummed by this prospect.

The Rangers kicked off the season by sweeping the defending NL champs at home, following by losing a series to the better but still not great Orioles. Fangraphs projects a 85-77 record which is juuuust a smidge better than the Cubs. The top of the Cubs rotation looked pretty solid in the first go round, so hopefully that continues this weekend.

(Projected) Team leaders

Numbers taken from Zips projections – based on past performance there’s a 30% chance that I’ll put someone who is no longer in the team on these lists on any given week (dying laughing).

Rangers

  • OBP: Nathaniel Lowe (.352)
  • ISO: Mitch Garver (.219)
  • HR: Marcus Semien (29)
  • R+RBI: Semien (183)
  • wRC+: Corey Seager (131)
  • BSR: Bubba Thompson (3.6)
  • Defense: Jonah Heim (18.7)
  • SP K/9: Jacob deGrom (12.33)
  • SP BB/9: deGrom (1.79)
  • SP FIP: deGrom (2.32)
  • RP K/9: Jose LeClerc (10.37)
  • RP BB/9: Will Smith (3.33)
  • RP FIP: LeClerc (3.81)
  • WAR: Seager (4.8)

Cubs

  • OBP: Seiya Suzuki (.352)
  • ISO: Patrick Wisdom (.230)
  • HR: Wisdom (26)
  • R+RBI: Dansby Swanson (171)
  • wRC+: Suzuki (135)
  • BSR: Hoerner (1.1)
  • Defense: Swanson (16.1)
  • SP K/9: Justin Steele (8.94)
  • SP BB/9: Jameson Taillon (2.16)
  • SP FIP: Marcus Stroman (3.69)
  • RP K/9: Brandon Hughes (10.62)
  • RP BB/9: Madden Generated Player (2.91)
  • RP FIP: Michael Fulmer (3.78)
  • WAR: Swanson (5.0)

Who isn’t available?

On the Cubs side, Seiya Suzuki is on the 10-day IL as he recovers from his oblique strain. He has hit and played the field in some extended spring training games, and might graduate to a minor league stint before rejoining the team. Cyle is also on the 10-day IL with his shoulder injury, and probably won’t be back until May. The Cubs were hoping that lefty reliever Brandon Hughes would be ready to go for opening day, but he’s still dealing with some knee issues and is probably a week or so out. And lest we forget, RP Codi Heuer had Tommy John last year, and could be back at midseason.

For the Rangers, shortstop Josh Smith took a baseball to the face in the season opener, and required multiple stitches. It sounds like he’s doing better and may appear this weekend. OF Leody Taveras suffered an oblique injury in spring training and is currently rehabbing in the minors. RHP (and sometime top prospect?) Spencer Howard is recovering from shoulder and arm issues and is out indefinitely. SP Jake Odorizzi is similarly suffering from unspecified arm fatigue and is out for at least the next two months.

Pitching Matchups, game times

2023 Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for all starters

Friday: Nathan Eovaldi, RHP (8.88, 2.05, 3.83) vs Marcus Stroman, RHP (7.64, 2.45, 3.58), 1:20 PM CT

Saturday: Martin Perez, LHP (7.51, 3.17, 4.17) vs Justin Steele, LHP (9.12, 3.71, 3.67), 3:05 PM CT

Sunday: Jon Gray, RHP (9.15, 2.99, 4.13) vs Jameson Taillon, RHP (7.66, 2.17, 4.07), 1:20 PM CT

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Comments

  1. andcounting

    Still love that you list stats other than R + RBI as if they matter even half as much as the GOAT. (dying laughing)

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  4. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Given the success rate of the things you hope for actually happening, I’m now very concerned about the second part, (dying laughing).

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  10. Rice Cube

    This will piss off some folks hehe

    Anyway, today’s lineup

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  19. andcounting

    Now, I have no idea what Mancini was looking at. Those were two straight fastballs over the heart of the plate.

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  40. BVS

    Happ isn’t complaining about shorter games.

    Gotta wonder if the shorter games will reduce fatigue and fatigue-related injuries over the season. I’ve seen a little bit of discussion about that, but now watching shorter games come to fruition, seems like it might be a thing.

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  41. andcounting

    BVS,

    It makes sense, but there are SO many variables since the pace is faster, the rests are shorter, the games are shorter, and every player presumably makes different use of the extra time in every game day. You’d also expect it to have a different effect on pitchers than hitters and (if more athleticism really is demanded by the shift and possibly more balls in play) a unique effect on infielders. And with more steal attempts this year, that’s a whole other set of variables. Understanding what causes what or how much is just coincidence is a big hairy mess.

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  42. BVS

    andcounting,

    Totally agree. But isn’t Berselius well versed in Baysian Statistics and Structural Equation Modeling? He can separate all those variables. Or maybe we can bring back GW and he can do it. OV can pay him double what they did last time.

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  44. Author
    berselius

    If we had enough baseball players on the field randomly bouncing off one another, I could tell your their thermal conductivity (dying laughing).

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  45. BVS

    Finally had a chance to listen the Dreamcast yesterday while driving across the lost civilizations of South Carolina. Random thoughts:
    1. I’m not sure sitting under the blanket helped kill the echo on my side.
    2. The Hope Monster has fully infected AC, and even the 92-wins-and-no-playoffs doesn’t cure that.
    3. McKinstrey as of right now .214/.214/.428
    4. Pitching +D nets another win today.

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  47. BVS

    berselius,

    Couldn’t you tell us the amount of kcal saved in shorter games by not standing out on the field, less sweating on days over 78.6F, getting in the “ready to field position,” fewer seeds spitted, and fewer elbow pad adjustments by batters?

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  48. BVS

    Mlbtr had this summary of Brandon Hughes recently:

    Hughes impressed in 57 2/3 innings of work out of the Chicago bullpen last season, posting a 3.12 ERA, good for a 132 ERA+. While that top line run prevention number is impressive, and Hughes posted a solid 28.5% strikeout rate against an 8.8% walk rate, he also managed to leave a whopping 87.7% of runners on base last season, in large part thanks to his deflated .233 BABIP in spite of a groundball rate of just 33.8%. Given his problems with balls in the air, it’s no surprise that his FIP was a whopping 4.64 last year.

    Ummm. That’s some hellacious luck, no? Methinks Roenis Elias/Little/Borucki/Kay better turn it on, just in case.

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  49. Author
    berselius

    BVS:
    berselius,

    Couldn’t you tell us the amount of kcal saved in shorter games by not standing out on the field, less sweating on days over 78.6F, getting in the “ready to field position,” fewer seeds spitted, and fewer elbow pad adjustments by batters?

    (dying laughing). I measure energies in electronVolts, not kcal 😉

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  50. BVS

    berselius: (dying laughing). I measure energies in electronVolts, not kcal 😉

    So it’s just a matter of converting neuron firings/activity into millivolts then. Piece of cake.

    How much thermal conductivity was released when the Prius was totalled? (Too soon?)

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  54. BVS

    andcounting,

    Not sure, (dying laughing).

    All I did was quote Berselius’s post, which had the emoji in it, using a Mac w Firefox. OV did the rest.

    OV rocks. 👨‍🎤🗿

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  57. Rice Cube

    Today’s Cubs lineup

    2B Hoerner
    SS Swanson
    LF Happ
    1B Mancini
    RF Wisdom
    DH Torrens
    CF Bellinger
    C Gomes
    3B Madrigal

    Steele day, guess the Texas starter is lefty and I should probably read these posts

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  76. Rice Cube

    BVS,

    I had a few things I always told the kids when I coached:

    1. Swing at anything close because the umpires don’t know the strike zone from their own ass

    2. Steal with impunity because the opposing catcher has a noodle of an arm

    3. Keep running until they catch it because there’s a good chance they’re not catching it

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  78. Author
    berselius

    Rice Cube,

    We definitely have a vroom vroom guy on our beer league team. Always takes the extra base unless someone is literally standing there with the ball (dying laughing).

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