The Cubs lost to the Phillies 4-2 after blowing a 2-0 lead and another outstanding pitching performance by Matt Garza. After the game, Garza said he is still having fun:
“It’s baseball,” Garza said. “If it was a given, it wouldn’t be that fun, would it?”
(Chris Sweda, Chicago Tribune / July 19, 2011)
It certainly looks like you’re having fun, Matt. We’re right there with you, buddy.
Comments
Anyone see V-Mart’s play at home? What’s funny is when Suzuki dove, V-Mart was still 5 feet from the plate. If he’d kept his feet, he had him easily.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17081697&topic_id=11493214
binkyQuote Reply
I gotchya Ryno, but right now Shields is pitching at a (near) Cy Young level, and given that he’s reasonably signed for the next few years, it’s going to take quite a bit right now (there’s no sure thing that they trade him this year as opposed to the offseason; they may even go into next season with him).
I do think that they would covet a bat right now more than an arm.
MishQuote Reply
Off to fry in the Wrigley open stove, fuckfaces.
Should I root for a victory or a crushing defeat?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I gotchya Ryno, but right now Shields is pitching at a (near) Cy Young level, and given that he’s reasonably signed for the next few years, it’s going to take quite a bit right now (there’s no sure thing that they trade him this year as opposed to the offseason; they may even go into next season with him).
I do think that they would covet a bat right now more than an arm.[/quote]
I know the contracts are different, but look at what Sabathia and Lee fetched the last two years. Haren is a better comp, and look what ARI got for him.
Perez or Erlin, Beltre or Martin and some spare parts would be the best return out of all of those trades.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Great interview with Chili Davis:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/qa-chili-davis/
Career strikeout record held by a cheater. I’m sure we’ll get the same amount of outrage in the media from this as we do from steroids!
The WreckardQuote Reply
I wasn’t around much this past weekend, but did you guys discuss the Gillick rumors, especially the part where he and Hendry might be on board at the same time (at least initially)?
MishQuote Reply
Also, good stuff on hitter volatility:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/7/20/2283275/what-determines-the-volatility-of-hitters-player-volatility-part-v
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I wasn’t around much this past weekend, but did you guys discuss the Gillick rumors, especially the part where he and Hendry might be on board at the same time (at least initially)?[/quote]a small discussion. I think he comes aboard and basically helps Ricketts decide who stays or goes. Sounds like he and Hendry are somewhat tight so Hendry could stay. Gillick would likely stay in a part-time role to help force Hendry’s hand one way or the other.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]Great interview with Chili Davis:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/qa-chili-davis/
Career strikeout record held by a cheater. I’m sure we’ll get the same amount of outrage in the media from this as we do from steroids![/quote]That means that the people who want an asterisk next to Bonds’ records will call for an asterisk next to Ryans, records, right? Because those people are completely rational and consistent.
ACTQuote Reply
brett jackson has struck out 10 times in 23 ab’s in AAA.
dylanjQuote Reply
and he still has a .379 OBP
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Also, good stuff on hitter volatility:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/7/20/2283275/what-determines-the-volatility-of-hitters-player-volatility-part-v%5B/quote%5D
Would love to see Bautista’s volatility score.
JManQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/shortstop-risers-and-fallers/
You’d think Fangraphs people would be smarter than this. Oh no! He had a bad week! Bench him!
ACTQuote Reply
I feel sorry for anyone who took that advise, since he just went 2-5 with a home run (and went 2-4 with a SB yesterday).
ACTQuote Reply
man fangraphs is amazing. I check out Castro’s page today because he is almost at the number of AB’s he took last year. Just seeing the small changes from year 1 to year two is interesting. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4579&position=SS
dylanjQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
He’s definitely ahead of where he was last year in terms of hitting. I don’t know what to make of the fact that his defensive numbers are worse.
ACTQuote Reply
the biggest change is that he is making more contact in the zone and less outside. I think the adjustment he has to make to be an elite player is to understand that all pitches in the zone are not created equal and just because he can make contact doesnt mean he should.
dylanjQuote Reply
and he could still improve on swinging at less pitches outside of the zone as well
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]Great interview with Chili Davis:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/qa-chili-davis/
Career strikeout record held by a cheater. I’m sure we’ll get the same amount of outrage in the media from this as we do from steroids the lack of outrage will once again prove this is all about home runs.
mb21Quote Reply
Maybe it’s my lying eyes, but Castro seems to have an incredible eye at the plate until 2 strikes. When he has 2 strikes, he swings at shit. It’s weird. Then again, it’s my eyes telling me this and not a faget spreadsheet.
MuckerQuote Reply
hell the fangraphs thing is so advanced now you can even compare his advanced metrics to league average. Basically he has one outstanding tool which is his contact skills. but then again, he’s 21 years old and a 2 WAR player. So thats good
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]Maybe it’s my lying eyes, but Castro seems to have an incredible eye at the plate until 2 strikes. When he has 2 strikes, he swings at shit. It’s weird. Then again, it’s my eyes telling me this and not a faget spreadsheet.[/quote]He definitely changes his approach a lot with 2 strikes, which is reasonable to an extent, but pitchers have definitely been taking advantage.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]the biggest change is that he is making more contact in the zone and less outside. I think the adjustment he has to make to be an elite player is to understand that all pitches in the zone are not created equal and just because he can make contact doesnt mean he should.[/quote]Don’t they say that, for you players, doubles are usually the indicator of someone’s power potential? That as they get strong those doubles start turning into home runs?
If so, Castro has promise seeing as he is in the top 10 in doubles in all of baseball as a 21 year old.
The WreckardQuote Reply
Looks like there will be a ton of NFL moves starting about this time next week. If everything goes as planned, teams will start re-signing their own players as well as picking up UDFAs Monday or Tuesday with free agency kicking off next Thursday.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]hell the fangraphs thing is so advanced now you can even compare his advanced metrics to league average. Basically he has one outstanding tool which is his contact skills. but then again, he’s 21 years old and a 2 WAR player. So thats good[/quote]Not just his contact, but his ability to turn balls in play into hits. This is the second year in a row he’s been among the league leaders in BABIP.
ACTQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Looks like there will be a ton of NFL moves starting about this time next week. If everything goes as planned, teams will start re-signing their own players as well as picking up UDFAs Monday or Tuesday with free agency kicking off next Thursday.[/quote]
too bad the 49ers dont want to spend any money on FA. Seriously, if the cap floor is as high as being reported TB will have to spend almost 60 mill in cap space just to be compliant. FA is going to be nutty
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]too bad the 49ers dont want to spend any money on FA.[/quote]
I went and read that quote, and that’s not what he said.
I’m totally fine with that.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]hell the fangraphs thing is so advanced now you can even compare his advanced metrics to league average. Basically he has one outstanding tool which is his contact skills. but then again, he’s 21 years old and a 2 WAR player. So thats good[/quote]fWAR seems to like him, but rWAR thinks he’s a bit above replacement. The reality is likely somewhere in between the two. Castro has a lot of potential and he’s still young and could improve. That’s true. However, he has a lot he needs to improve at to be an exceptional ballplayer. More than likely he’ll just be a good ballplayer like Carlos Zambrano. I actually think a career with the Cubs in terms of WAR for Castro may be quite similar to Zambrano. Zambrano had a couple years where he was excellent, but for the most part he was just really good throughout his career until recently.
Even expecting him to have a career similar to Z’s is setting expectations a little high, but Castro is pretty good for his age so it’s not at all unlikely.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]Don’t they say that, for you players, doubles are usually the indicator of someone’s power potential? That as they get strong those doubles start turning into home runs?
If so, Castro has promise seeing as he is in the top 10 in doubles in all of baseball as a 21 year old.[/quote]I think it was Bill James who first pointed that out, but it was about all players. A player who hits a lot of doubles one season will more than likely hit more homers the following year, but fewer doubles.
Castro is an interesting case though. A lot of his doubles haven’t exactly been the kind of hits that turn to home runs the following year. I don’t think when Bill James found that he was talking about line drives down the line, but rather the guys who hit balls deep in the gaps.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Not just his contact, but his ability to turn balls in play into hits. This is the second year in a row he’s been among the league leaders in BABIP.[/quote]Part of that is his extreme ground ball rate. If I recall, an extreme fly ball hitter will have a BABIP around .270 and an extreme ground ball hitter will have one around .320 to .330. So Castro is still better than average, but big reason is the ground ball rate.
mb21Quote Reply
projecting castro is hard to do like it is for any 21 year old. buts its encouraging that at such a young age he already has enough skills to be a slightly above average player at a key position. I dont know if his batting skills will change that much but for some reason I do think his D will improve with more time
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]I’m totally fine with that.[/quote]
eh, the west is such a shitty division and we have enough cap space to make a move that i would love to see us get a top flight CB this year.
dylanjQuote Reply
Soriano didn’t even know that he has a no trade clause! Did Donuts just throw it into the deal for the hell of it? OMFG.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/6603214-417/cubs-alfonso-soriano-says-hes-open-to-waiving-no-trade-rights.html
adnielsenQuote Reply
[quote name=adnielsen]Soriano didn’t even know that he has a no trade clause! Did Donuts just throw it into the deal for the hell of it? OMFG.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/6603214-417/cubs-alfonso-soriano-says-hes-open-to-waiving-no-trade-rights.html%5B/quote%5DLook, Lou Pinella didn’t give him the nickname “The Professor” because of his penchant for wearing tweed jackets with elbow patches on his off-days.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=adnielsen]Soriano didn’t even know that he has a no trade clause! Did Donuts just throw it into the deal for the hell of it? OMFG.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/6603214-417/cubs-alfonso-soriano-says-hes-open-to-waiving-no-trade-rights.html%5B/quote%5D
I actually don’t really care if he knew or not.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]eh, the west is such a shitty division and we have enough cap space to make a move that i would love to see us get a top flight CB this year.[/quote]
Ike Taylor would be more than enough to set up our DBs for this year. If anything, we should be looking at DL. We could use another OLB as well as NT and DE depth (especially if/when Franklin walks).
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Look, Lou Pinella didn’t give him the nickname “The Professor” because of his penchant for wearing tweed jackets with elbow patches on his off-days.[/quote]And he didn’t call him The Colonel because he was some dumb ass army guy.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=adnielsen]Soriano didn’t even know that he has a no trade clause! Did Donuts just throw it into the deal for the hell of it? OMFG.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/6603214-417/cubs-alfonso-soriano-says-hes-open-to-waiving-no-trade-rights.html%5B/quote%5DDo people think Hendry negotiates with players? Last I heard players have agents that do the contract discussions. So it’s likely one of those things the agent never really bothered telling him. Imagine being K-Rod and finding out you’ve been traded to a team you blocked only to find out your agent didn’t submit the list.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]projecting castro is hard to do like it is for any 21 year old. buts its encouraging that at such a young age he already has enough skills to be a slightly above average player at a key position. I dont know if his batting skills will change that much but for some reason I do think his D will improve with more time[/quote]I’d be surprised if his defense improved that much and I doubt he’ll get a chance to prove it at SS anyway. I’d be surprised if he’s not at 2nd base by this time next season.
Whether or not he’s average depends entirely on which WAR you use. If you use rWAR, he’s well below average. Best thing to do is just average the two in my opinion.
The one thing I’d bet my life on is that Cubs fans are going to be disappointed with what he accomplishes. They have set the expectations so high that very, very few players would ever live up to it.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=JMan]Do people think Hendry negotiates with players? Last I heard players have agents that do the contract discussions. So it’s likely one of those things the agent never really bothered telling him. Imagine being K-Rod and finding out you’ve been traded to a team you blocked only to find out your agent didn’t submit the list.[/quote]Yeah, the agent does the negotiating and I don’t believe that Soriano didn’t know he had a no-trade clause. Maybe he forgot, which would be easy to do since his contract is probably something he hasn’t thought about since the day he signed it.
Like I’ve said before, no-trade clauses are negotiated and the players gives something up to get it. More than likely it costs him a little money. Its not like a player gets a NTC and gives up absolutely nothing.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Part of that is his extreme ground ball rate. If I recall, an extreme fly ball hitter will have a BABIP around .270 and an extreme ground ball hitter will have one around .320 to .330. So Castro is still better than average, but big reason is the ground ball rate.[/quote]Yes, ground-ball rate helps, but it’s also a matter of how hard you hit them. Juan Pierre has a very high ground-ball rate (higher, career-wise than Castro’s), a high line-drive rate, and blazing speed, but his career BABIP is “only” .317. He just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to find gaps between infielders. The ball rifles of off Castro’s bat.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]projecting castro is hard to do like it is for any 21 year old. buts its encouraging that at such a young age he already has enough skills to be a slightly above average player at a key position. I dont know if his batting skills will change that much but for some reason I do think his D will improve with more time[/quote]
I think you hit the nail on the head dj– what he’s doing is impressive enough on its own. Kids his age are usually struggling with their first tour of AA. He’s in his second big league season, and showing signs of potential stardom. Will he reach his complete potential? None of us can say for sure, but it’s absolutely impossible for me not to be blown away with what he’s accomplished. You just have to be really special to do what he’s doing.
And as far as I’m concerned, he’s a shortstop going forward. He’s error prone, but ya know what?– so are a lot of 21 year olds. Just they’re making those mistakes in the minors. There’s no reason to even consider messing with his position until the Cubs feel like Castro’s defense is costing them truly meaningful baseball games, and as long as that’s the case, it could be awhile before it would even make sense to entertain a position switch, and by that point I believe he will have proven himself to be a more than capable major league shortstop.
This isn’t conclusive evidence of anything I just argued, but that play he made last night to throw the runner out at home after making the stabbing a grounder on the short hop. Every now and then he’ll make a play like that that just has me believing he’ll be able to put it altogether the more experience he gets.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
It’s worth noting that Sosa wasn’t very good in his early 20’s either.
ACTQuote Reply
The thing is, it’s not that Castro lacks any of the physical skills to play shortstop. It’d be one thing if there were concerns over his range, or hands, or arm strength, but he really has all of those things in spades. The only thing he’s lacking is experience, and if he can just grow out of being a little mistake prone, there’s no reason his skills won’t allow him to be more than adequate at the position.
That argument obviously requires the assumption that he will eventually cut down on his errors, and I know that isn’t a given, but I just think it’s easy to be hypersensitive to his error total because it isn’t that often that guys as young as him are able to rack up as many innings as he has at such a demanding position, at such a young age.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]I think you hit the nail on the head dj– what he’s doing is impressive enough on its own. Kids his age are usually struggling with their first tour of AA. He’s in his second big league season, and showing signs of potential stardom. Will he reach his complete potential? None of us can say for sure, but it’s absolutely impossible for me not to be blown away with what he’s accomplished. You just have to be really special to do what he’s doing.
And as far as I’m concerned, he’s a shortstop going forward. He’s error prone, but ya know what?– so are a lot of 21 year olds. Just they’re making those mistakes in the minors. There’s no reason to even consider messing with his position until the Cubs feel like Castro’s defense is costing them truly meaningful baseball games, and as long as that’s the case, it could be awhile before it would even make sense to entertain a position switch, and by that point I believe he will have proven himself to be a more than capable major league shortstop.
This isn’t conclusive evidence of anything I just argued, but that play he made last night to throw the runner out at home after making the stabbing a grounder on the short hop. Every now and then he’ll make a play like that that just has me believing he’ll be able to put it altogether the more experience he gets.[/quote]
He seems uncomfortable at defense, which to me is a positive, since it could imply he just needs more seasoning. His flashes of defensive brilliance usually seem to come when he doesn’t have time to think. He’s already been getting better about holding onto the ball when he has no play, which is definitely an experience thing. He has a chance to be a perfectly acceptable defensive short stop, I think.
binkyQuote Reply
Castro reminds me of Sosa in a lot of ways (they’re very different kinds of players of course). They’re both regulars at a very young age. They both raw with great tools and enthusiasm and occasional mental lapses. (I’m not, of course suggesting that Castro will produce like Sosa).
ACTQuote Reply
Poor Sean Marshall. His numbers this year are Greinke-esque (amazing peripherals, terrible luck).
ACTQuote Reply
Not year, month. Oops.
ACTQuote Reply
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/7/20/2284956/the-hollow-obp
MishQuote Reply
Ha! I knew there would be a pic of Kosuke there!
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]He seems uncomfortable at defense, which to me is a positive, since it could imply he just needs more seasoning. His flashes of defensive brilliance usually seem to come when he doesn’t have time to think. He’s already been getting better about holding onto the ball when he has no play, which is definitely an experience thing. He has a chance to be a perfectly acceptable defensive short stop, I think.[/quote]
You’re definitely right that he’s been better about not forcing the throw to first on every ball he get his hands on. That’s a big step for him. I think it’s all just a matter of slowing the game down, which just requires time. Once he’s got three or four years of experience under his belt, I think he’ll become a lot more sure handed.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Castro reminds me of Sosa in a lot of ways [/quote]
Just cuz there both Messican?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
What if the Cubs pulled an Upton and moved him to center?
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]What if the Cubs pulled an Upton and moved him to center?[/quote]Works for me.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]What if the Cubs pulled an Upton and moved him to center?[/quote]
Greatly helped both parties (Upton and the Rays); I actually don’t think it’s a terrible idea but part of that depends on where BJax projects to.
MishQuote Reply
i agree with part of what md said though about Castro not living up to our hopes. I mean I try and be rational but for the most part if Castro isnt a top 10 player in 4-5 years im going to be disappointed just a bit. And thats unfair
Also agree with Jack on Castro’s d. I remember a game this year where the WGN camera was behind the MI. There was a hard grounder right up the middle and I thought there was no way anybody could get it and then Castro zoomed in and made a routine play. I think the errors will decrease with more experience
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]It’s worth noting that Sosa wasn’t very good in his early 20’s either.[/quote]We could play that game all day. Jose Bautista wasn’t even any good in his late 20s.
mb21Quote Reply
Right, but most players who are regulars at 20 become quite good is what I’m saying.
ACTQuote Reply
Which is to say, the Jose Bautista example is irrelevant since Jose was bad for a player his age, but Castro is very good for a player his age.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’d be surprised if his defense improved that much and I doubt he’ll get a chance to prove it at SS anyway. I’d be surprised if he’s not at 2nd base by this time next season.
[/quote]I’m not sure why the prevailing wisdom around here is that he’s not going to improve defensively. If you look at the admittedly small group of shortstops who came into the league young — say, 22 or younger for their first full-time season — it’s not uncommon to see drops in error rates over the first three or four seasons that lead to an increase in fielding percentage of .20, give or take, that stabilizes through a player’s prime years. (I know, it’s a stone age metric, but I’m comfortable with the proposition that a drop in the number of errors a player makes correlates with an increase in fielding value.)
If Castro makes similar improvements over the next couple of years, he’d probably be an average-ish defensive player, and would have substantial value as a shortstop. But the bigger question is this: why move him over so quickly? If it’s a given that the team will suck for the next two years, why make the assumption that Castro can’t handle short and voluntarily slash his value?
There’s a distinct possibility that he won’t stick at shortstop, but there’s no reason to not give him several years to fail given the situation.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Chump edit: .020
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]I’m not sure why the prevailing wisdom around here is that he’s not going to improve defensively. If you look at the admittedly small group of shortstops who came into the league young — say, 22 or younger for their first full-time season — it’s not uncommon to see drops in error rates over the first three or four seasons that lead to an increase in fielding percentage of .20, give or take, that stabilizes through a player’s prime years. (I know, it’s a stone age metric, but I’m comfortable with the proposition that a drop in the number of errors a player makes correlates with an increase in fielding value.)
If Castro makes similar improvements over the next couple of years, he’d probably be an average-ish defensive player, and would have substantial value as a shortstop. But the bigger question is this: why move him over so quickly? If it’s a given that the team will suck for the next two years, why make the assumption that Castro can’t handle short and voluntarily slash his value?
There’s a distinct possibility that he won’t stick at shortstop, but there’s no reason to not give him several years to fail given the situation.[/quote]Yeah, that’s a good point. Even if they do contend, is Barney an upgrade at short? Chances are, like you said, he’ll stabilize.
binkyQuote Reply
It’s definitely possible Castro becomes a better fielder, but as I’ve said before, for every player that became better defensively, we can find many more who did not. Back in the 80s everybody kept saying Dunston would become a superstar and he’d outgrow his pathetic defense. It didn’t happen. It might with Castro, but odds are it doesn’t. it’s not like defense is the only skill Castro lacks either. He can’t get on base without hitting for a high average and high BABIP. He doesn’t have the type of power you’d expect from a superstar and likely never will.
None of this is to say Castro won’t be good. He will be, but I fear people have set their expectations so high that there’s literally no way Castro will ever live up to them.
mb21Quote Reply
does Hendry say he is keeping anyone that might help them win next year because he is planning on going to go after Fielder or even Pujols and wants to provide the image that with them in tow this team can win now? I know Pujols has had issues in STL with not having any help and that was a big issue and reason they blew a load for Holliday and brought on a (lucky) Berkman.
Snyds01Quote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]What if the Cubs pulled an Upton and moved him to center?[/quote]I wouldn’t be surprised if they just tried to obtain Upton actually. In fact if the Astros do have to pare payroll I almost expect to see Hendry try to pry Wandy off their hands. I really think he’s going to send a few players out but bring back at least one starting pitcher.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=Snyds01]does Hendry say he is keeping anyone that might help them win next year because he is planning on going to go after Fielder or even Pujols and wants to provide the image that with them in tow this team can win now? I know Pujols has had issues in STL with not having any help and that was a big issue and reason they blew a load for Holliday and brought on a (lucky) Berkman.[/quote]Surely that has to be it. They think they can contend next year. If they have more flexibility than we’ve been led to believe, maybe they can. Otherwise, you’d firesale this team. Just because it’s Hendry making this call, I have a bad feeling in the pit of my gut about the decision.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Right, but most players who are regulars at 20 become quite good is what I’m saying.[/quote]I don’t know how true that really is. Below are the players most comparable to Starlin Castro since 1901. I used Batting Runs on B-ref up to the age of 21 for players with 700 or more plate appearances who played at least 50% of their games at SS.
Player name, Batting Runs, OPS+ from age 22 on
Alfredo Griffin -12 Rbat, 65 OPS+
Whitey Whitt -10, 97 OPS+
Dick Bartell -8, 97 OPS+
Sonny Jackson -7, 68 OPS+
Buddy Kerr -2, 71 OPS+
Starlin Castro 0
Jim Fregosi 8, 114 OPS+
Gary Templeton 13, 85 OPS+
I started writing something about Castro and may finish it, but if you look more closely, Castro most resembles Buddy Kerr and Gary Templeton of all the players in the group (not just those listed above). Kerr ended his career being worth 9.9 WAR while Templeton had a solid career and was worth about 25 WAR.
I think Castro is going to be closer to the 25 than the 9, but that may just be blind homerism on my part. if Castro is worth 20 WAR over the next 5 years, he was a very good player for the Cubs before reaching free agency. That’s about what I expect. Probably a bit under that. Somewhere closer to 15. If he plays long enough he could finish his career with about 30 WAR or so.
mb21Quote Reply
this is the same group that said all we needed was a SP, RH setup man and a left hand bat to compete. We got all three (good ones too) and we fucking suck
dylanjQuote Reply
I agree. As long as the Cubs aren’t contending and Castro’s bat isn’t suffering, there’s no reason to move him away from SS. This is the Cubs and I doubt they let that happen. I’m pleasantly surprised they haven’t moved him yet, but I think Quade has been a big reason for keeping him there. I’m not so sure a new manager is going to agree with Quade next season. I’d bet otherwise.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Snyds01]does Hendry say he is keeping anyone that might help them win next year because he is planning on going to go after Fielder or even Pujols and wants to provide the image that with them in tow this team can win now? I know Pujols has had issues in STL with not having any help and that was a big issue and reason they blew a load for Holliday and brought on a (lucky) Berkman.[/quote]that’s the assumption since Ricketts claims they have money to spend. I used to be completely on-board with a rebuild effort. But if the NL Central continues to be this weak then there’s no reason to think they can’t contend with a few upgrades at 1B and in the rotation.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It’s definitely possible Castro becomes a better fielder, but as I’ve said before, for every player that became better defensively, we can find many more who did not. Back in the 80s everybody kept saying Dunston would become a superstar and he’d outgrow his pathetic defense. It didn’t happen. It might with Castro, but odds are it doesn’t. it’s not like defense is the only skill Castro lacks either. He can’t get on base without hitting for a high average and high BABIP. He doesn’t have the type of power you’d expect from a superstar and likely never will.
None of this is to say Castro won’t be good. He will be, but I fear people have set their expectations so high that there’s literally no way Castro will ever live up to them.[/quote]Can’t help you much with that, unfotunately…Cubs fans, they’re just dumb sometimes. Still, it seems a bit like his potential and value is sometimes devalued by some folks simply because the unwashed masses think he’s going to be a star, and I’m not sure I can get behind that approach, either.
uncle daveQuote Reply
KG (with no mention of “secondary skills”).
Matt Szczur, OF, Cubs (High-A Daytona): 2-for-5, HR (1), R, RBI. Fifth straight two-hit game and first High-A home run; .314/.333/.429 in seven games.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Which is to say, the Jose Bautista example is irrelevant since Jose was bad for a player his age, but Castro is very good for a player his age.[/quote]You said so and so wasn’t any good in his early 20s indicating that Castro could become later on. I said Bautista wasn’t any good in his late 20s, which implies someone like Micah Hoffpauir could become good later on. I don’t see how these are different. In both cases we’re using samples of one and we all know better than that.
mb21Quote Reply
Why are Castro’s defensive ratings so low? Is it because of the errors? He seems to have good range and good arm strength but does make a good bit of errors. If it’s the errors, it’s highly possible that he can cut down on those mistakes (especially throwing errors) and become a good SS. But if it’s not the errors, what would make his ratings so low?
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]that’s the assumption since Ricketts claims they have money to spend. I used to be completely on-board with a rebuild effort. But if the NL Central continues to be this weak then there’s no reason to think they can’t contend with a few upgrades at 1B and in the rotation.[/quote]
See, I don’t agree with this unless they do some massive changes. I don’t think a star 1B and one more good starter necessarily makes us contenders. And I’d rather just take the full scale rebuild approach, because as much as playoffs are luck/small sample size/whatever, I’d still rather build a team to win a World Series, not the NL fucking Central.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]that’s the assumption since Ricketts claims they have money to spend. I used to be completely on-board with a rebuild effort. But if the NL Central continues to be this weak then there’s no reason to think they can’t contend with a few upgrades at 1B and in the rotation.[/quote]That’s what makes this a hard decision. The division sucks, but if they want to rebuild the time to strike is now. This year, they did neither. So, nice job Jimmy!
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]Can’t help you much with that, unfotunately…Cubs fans, they’re just dumb sometimes. Still, it seems a bit like his potential and value is sometimes devalued by some folks simply because the unwashed masses think he’s going to be a star, and I’m not sure I can get behind that approach, either.[/quote]I think people think that’s what I’m doing, but i’m not. I’ve said several times that I think Castro is going to have a career similar in value to Carlos Zambrano. Anybody who has read this site or ACB knows how much of a fan I’ve been of Zambrano. They know how much I’ve defended how damn good he’s been in his career with the Cubs. The fact i think Castro is actually going to have a career similar to that isn’t belittling his potential one bit. I’d argue that I’ve set my own expectation for him too high, but I think he’s that good.
I just don’t think he’s as good as some do.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]Why are Castro’s defensive ratings so low? Is it because of the errors? He seems to have good range and good arm strength but does make a good bit of errors. If it’s the errors, it’s highly possible that he can cut down on those mistakes (especially throwing errors) and become a good SS. But if it’s not the errors, what would make his ratings so low?[/quote]
Based on UZR, he doesn’t grade positively in any of the metrics (Double Play runs, Range, Errors) in 2011. TZL has him even worse than UZR does. DRS and FSR basically put him at average.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4579&position=SS#fielding
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]See, I don’t agree with this unless they do some massive changes. I don’t think a star 1B and one more good starter necessarily makes us contenders. And I’d rather just take the full scale rebuild approach, because as much as playoffs are luck/small sample size/whatever, I’d still rather build a team to win a World Series, not the NL fucking Central.[/quote]I assume they’re trying to balance rebuild with continuing ticket sales. Chicago fans have come to expect a certain level of participation in the NL Central over the last few years.
binkyQuote Reply
Catering to the fans too much might cripple this franchise if it isn’t already a drooling retard already.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Based on UZR, he doesn’t grade positively in any of the metrics (Double Play runs, Range, Errors) in 2011. TZL has him even worse than UZR does. DRS and FSR basically put him at average.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4579&position=SS#fielding%5B/quote%5DIf he doesn’t grade positive in range, then holy shit where does Theriot grade? (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
I realize they have to generate revenues on a yearly basis but if you’re just ruining your chances at success down the road I don’t know if the NPV of that strategy is that great.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I realize they have to generate revenues on a yearly basis but if you’re just ruining your chances at success down the road I don’t know if the NPV of that strategy is that great.[/quote]I’m with you, but fuck us what are we going to do about it?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]If he doesn’t grade positive in range, then holy shit where does Theriot grade? (dying laughing)[/quote]Dead last.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Whitey Whitt -10, 97 OPS+[/quote]
Ironically, this player actually was white.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]If he doesn’t grade positive in range, then holy shit where does Theriot grade? (dying laughing)[/quote]I imagine part of his poor grading in range is that he makes a lot of errors. I don’t think there’s any doubt he has good range, but there’s also no doubt he makes a lot of errors. I’m much less certain he’ll improve at that than others around here and it’s because fielders typically don’t improve all that much. Add in the scouting reports which said he’d likely be shifted away from SS and I don’t think there’s much doubt that will happen sooner than later.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think people think that’s what I’m doing, but i’m not. I’ve said several times that I think Castro is going to have a career similar in value to Carlos Zambrano. Anybody who has read this site or ACB knows how much of a fan I’ve been of Zambrano. They know how much I’ve defended how damn good he’s been in his career with the Cubs. The fact i think Castro is actually going to have a career similar to that isn’t belittling his potential one bit. I’d argue that I’ve set my own expectation for him too high, but I think he’s that good.
I just don’t think he’s as good as some do.[/quote]Fair enough — everyone’s entitled to my opinion (dying laughing).
uncle daveQuote Reply
According to that Betancourt has worse range than Theriot and it’s errors that are hurting Castro.
binkyQuote Reply
szrururu also stole home the other day but speed isnt a secondary skill
dylanjQuote Reply
To sum up the majority of this thread: Starlin Castro might or might not end up being a good player. It could go either way.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]To sum up the majority of this thread: Starlin Castro might or might not end up being a good player. It could go either way.[/quote]
lets take a wait and see approach
dylanjQuote Reply
I think Castro’s range could improve with age, too. As he gets more experience, he’ll get better reads, maybe.
binkyQuote Reply
BABIP hates Ryan Dempster.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]To sum up the majority of this thread: Starlin Castro might or might not end up being a good player. It could go either way.[/quote]The kids only 21 and you’re already forecasting his career? I’ll wait awhile, thanks.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb] Starlin Castro might or might not end up being a good player. It could go either way.[/quote]Maybe. But then again, maybe not.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]The kids only 21 and you’re already forecasting his career? I’ll wait awhile, thanks.[/quote]It’s too early to say what we think we can say about what we know. Let’s see what happens.
binkyQuote Reply
Of all players up through the age of 21 who had at least 700 plate appearances and played at least 50% of their games at 2nd or SS, Starlin Castro has the worst fielding runs above average of the group: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=mscdq
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]BABIP hates Ryan Dempster.[/quote]4 K’s, 6 hits, no home runs through 2 innings. Wow.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Of all players up through the age of 21 who had at least 700 plate appearances and played at least 50% of their games at 2nd or SS, Starlin Castro has the worst fielding runs above average of the group: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=mscdq%5B/quote%5DWhat if we wished really REALLY hard for him to get better?[quote name=ACT]4 K’s, 6 hits, no home runs through 2 innings. Wow.[/quote]Oh shit, the game started?
EDIT: AW! What the fuck?
binkyQuote Reply
What’s wrong with Ryan Dempster?
ACTQuote Reply
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=eEqOd
mb21Quote Reply
castro with another walk? Happy days
dylanjQuote Reply
May as well do it. I think that’s about the only way he sticks at SS.
mb21Quote Reply
Ron Santo is only a few steps above Castro.
binkyQuote Reply
BABIP loves Vance Worley.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Snyds01]does Hendry say he is keeping anyone that might help them win next year because he is planning on going to go after Fielder or even Pujols and wants to provide the image that with them in tow this team can win now? I know Pujols has had issues in STL with not having any help and that was a big issue and reason they blew a load for Holliday and brought on a (lucky) Berkman.[/quote]
I honestly don’t know what the plan is anymore. I think they thought they could ride out the bad contracts through a plan of faux-contending by getting guys like Pena and semi-cost-controlled Garza to keep the team in that .500 range and keep the fans believing and hoping.
Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, has gone to hell in a handbasket. The injuries at the major league level, combined with general suckiness and complete lack of any coaching ability to work around or improve the problems PLUS the exposure of the mediocrity of the farm system has turned a fan base that wants to hope and dream into a group that could give a shit.
Yet, Ricketts seems hellbent and determined to plow ahead with whatever their plan was when they thought they had pitching depth and a quality farm system. Now there are the rumors that Gillick will come in, but Hendry will stay, which makes me think it is nothing but a window dressing move to placate the fans.
All that is to say, who the fuck knows what they are thinking in regards to Pujols and Fielder.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]All that is to say, who the fuck knows what they are thinking in regards to Pujols and Fielder.[/quote]Or anything. It doesn’t inspire much confidence. Maybe they’re just trying to put together a .500 (in NL Central, 2nd place) team.
binkyQuote Reply
yeah i have no fucking clue what the plan is either anymore. i guess they are going to try and pull a 2007 out of their hat again. but you cant do that without spending major bucks
dylanjQuote Reply
Apparently Texas A&M held a meeting to discuss moving to the SEC. I have footage of that meeting.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]yeah i have no fucking clue what the plan is either anymore. i guess they are going to try and pull a 2007 out of their hat again. but you cant do that without spending major bucks[/quote]I’m sure it’s because it’s such a good plan we’ll just be completely blown away. Maybe Ricketts needs to spend big time to keep the team inflated until his credit catches up or something like that.
binkyQuote Reply
they are going to keep aramis sign prince and CC Sabathia and 2-3 other productive players.
thats the plan
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]they are going to keep aramis sign prince and CC Sabathia and 2-3 other productive players.
thats the plan[/quote]How will the dispose of the corpse of Alfonso Soriano?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]yeah i have no fucking clue what the plan is either anymore. i guess they are going to try and pull a 2007 out of their hat again. but you cant do that without spending major bucks[/quote]
Maybe Papa Ricketts is giving them another half billion or so for Christmas this year.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]How will the dispose of the corpse of Alfonso Soriano?[/quote]
send him to the same witch doctor that reanimated Bartolo Colon
dylanjQuote Reply
MB– with regard to your comments on Castro’s offense, I’m not saying you’re alone here, but I think some are making too big a deal over the absence of Castro’s secondary skills. I realize that I’m basically making the same argument for his defense, but there is plenty of reason to believe that with time, he can develop more than adequate power and plate discipline.
For one, we already know that plate discipline is a skill that improves with age. Granted, it is rare for free swingers to drastically change their ways, but again, you just have to consider how young Castro is, and how much time he still has to develop as a hitter. And honestly, even if he never becomes the type to walk in ~10% of his ABs, there’s a good chance he’ll hit for good enough of an average that that wouldn’t hold him back too much.
And I think maybe the most important thing to keep in mind, is that the people who are calling for full blown stardom for Castro base that opinion on the premise he will grow into very respectable power. And the thing about that sort of claim is, there probably just aren’t any numbers out there than can prove or disprove the likelihood that he reaches his power potential. The people who think he’ll become a power threat say so because of his physical overall hitting ability, and physical profile. So basically, whether or not he becomes a true superstar will just depend on whether scouts are right about his future power potential.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]MB– with regard to your comments on Castro’s offense, I’m not saying you’re alone here, but I think some are making too big a deal over the absence of Castro’s secondary skills. I realize that I’m basically making the same argument for his defense, but there is plenty of reason to believe that with time, he can develop more than adequate power and plate discipline.
For one, we already know that plate discipline is a skill that improves with age. Granted, it is rare for free swingers to drastically change their ways, but again, you just have to consider how young Castro is, and how much time he still has to develop as a hitter. And honestly, even if he never becomes the type to walk in ~10% of his ABs, there’s a good chance he’ll hit for good enough of an average that that wouldn’t hold him back too much.
And I think maybe the most important thing to keep in mind, is that the people who are calling for full blown stardom for Castro base that opinion on the premise he will grow into very respectable power. And the thing about that sort of claim is, there probably just aren’t any numbers out there than can prove or disprove the likelihood that he reaches his power potential. The people who think he’ll become a power threat say so because of his physical overall hitting ability, and physical profile. So basically, whether or not he becomes a true superstar will just depend on whether scouts are right about his future power potential.[/quote]We can all agree Castro is the most interesting thing about this team, hands down.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I’m sure it’s because it’s such a good plan we’ll just be completely blown away. [/quote]
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I imagine part of his poor grading in range is that he makes a lot of errors. I don’t think there’s any doubt he has good range, but there’s also no doubt he makes a lot of errors. I’m much less certain he’ll improve at that than others around here and it’s because fielders typically don’t improve all that much. Add in the scouting reports which said he’d likely be shifted away from SS and I don’t think there’s much doubt that will happen sooner than later.[/quote]
That much is true regarding UZR, at least. For the most part, Castro grades out respectably in the rest of the individual components of UZR– it’s mostly just the error factor that hurts him.
And I realize that when it comes to scouting information, we basically have no choice but to do this, but appealing to an authority isn’t usually my favorite argument, especially when the “authorities” have hardly reached a consensus on the matter. Sure, there are baseball people who don’t think Castro sticks at SS, but there are almost certainly plenty of others who feel very strongly that he will.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
Jack, I’ve never read anyone say Castro is going to become a power hitter. All I’ve read from scouts is that he’ll have at some point 10 to 15 home run power. That’s definitely within reason and about what I’d expect in his peak. I expect that based on his power so far in his career.
There are a lot of ifs with Castro. The ifs also work in the other direction. What if he doesn’t actually have any ability to have a higher than usual BABIP? What if he has little power now and in the future and his defense gets worse as one would expect (not better)?
That’s the thing here that I think is overlooked. We all talk about how some player could do if he does this or does that, but ignore what could happen if this happens or that happens. Castro making the necessary improvements to become a star are as likely as his skills declining to the point of him become a back-up.
Both are possible. There would be no reason to be surprised with either outcome, but neither is what we would expect going forward.
As I said earlier, i think people are looking way too much into my criticisms of Castro and taking it to mean I think he’s not any good even though I’ve been very careful stating the exact opposite.
The odds of Castro being a superstar were always low. The odds are even lower now. That’s really all I’m saying.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]We can all agree Castro is the most interesting thing about this team, hands down.[/quote]Agreed.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]That much is true regarding UZR, at least. For the most part, Castro grades out respectably in the rest of the individual components of UZR– it’s mostly just the error factor that hurts him.
And I realize that when it comes to scouting information, we basically have no choice but to do this, but appealing to an authority isn’t usually my favorite argument, especially when the “authorities” have hardly reached a consensus on the matter. Sure, there are baseball people who don’t think Castro sticks at SS, but there are almost certainly plenty of others who feel very strongly that he will.[/quote]Ask yourself this question: if Castro was known as a terrific fielder and came up and through 2 years had terrific defensive ratings, would you quote the scouting report in a way to suggest that yes, he will continue to be great defensively?
That’s what I’m doing. There were no doubt scouts who thought otherwise, but the majority of them seem to be in agreement he’ll be forced to move to a different position. His defensive numbers are awful. He looks awful on defense. Scouts have continued to say he probably will move positions as he fills out. The numbers and scouts may in fact be wrong, but based on what we know right now, it’s not nearly as likely that happens.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]they are going to keep aramis sign prince and CC Sabathia and 2-3 other productive players.
thats the plan[/quote]That would seem to go against what Ricketts has said. He said they’ll be diverting some money from the big league club into the minor leagues and we’ve seen that this year so far. I expect payroll to decline next year.
mb21Quote Reply
That is a highly debatable suggestion. In fact, I’m just not buying that one for a second.
The suggestion that his defense is simply bound to get worse is an equally debatable opinion. I understand that there’s research suggests players’ defensive skills tend to peak at a relatively early age, but that by no means suggests Starlin is terribly unlikely to improve on defense.
And I didn’t mean to suggest that a lot of people have been saying Castro will become some kind of slugger who averages 25-30 homers a year, but developing into a 15 home run threat would definitely still constitute growing into some power, especially by shortstop standards, and I’m positive that there have been a number of reports that suggest 15-20 homers aren’t out of the question for him in his prime.
I realize we’re just gonna end up agreeing to disagree about his potential, but just my opinion– I think you’re selling his talent short as a hitter. I mean, even a lot of the guys who he’s been compared to already (the Gary Templetons et al.) are guys who weren’t nearly as talented as this kid is, and I think talent evaluators who can remember some of the older guys he’s been compared to would agree with that.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Speak for yourself there. I don’t think he looks awful on defense. I think pretty much the opposite. To me he looks like a shortstop, just a mistake prone one. But to me, he still “looks the part” so to speak.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]That would seem to go against what Ricketts has said. He said they’ll be diverting some money from the big league club into the minor leagues and we’ve seen that this year so far. I expect payroll to decline next year.[/quote]THEN WHY WON’T THEY TRADE ANYONE!?!?!
It’s mind boggling.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]
[/quote]Once I saw a version of that song that included a plane ride.
binkyQuote Reply
I think we agree more than we disagree here, Jack. I get the feeling that people want me to believe that Castro can be a superstar. That somehow me thinking Castro is just going to be a really good ballplayer isn’t enough. Of course I believe Castro can be. For that mater, so can Tony Campana. Just about anybody who is young and puts on an MLB uniform CAN become a superstar. Castro just has enough holes in his game that it seems even more unlikely that it already would be even if he was perfect at everything.
I realize lots of things can happen. his defense could improve considerably while also adding power and he could maintain a .350ish BABIP. It’s all possible. It’s also possible he ends up sucking like several of the other shortstops his age who were nearly as good or better than Castro. It’s also possible he improves so much that he becomes the best player in the game.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]Speak for yourself there. I don’t think he looks awful on defense. I think pretty much the opposite. To me he looks like a shortstop, just a mistake prone one. But to me, he still “looks the part” so to speak.[/quote]I’m speaking for myself obviously, but also echoing what many scouts have said and what the defensive metrics indicate. I don’t really care if he looks the part. I care about whether or not he’s converting balls in play into outs and he’s not. His defense this year is worse than it was a year ago. He makes the spectacular play, but so does every shortstop.
mb21Quote Reply
Note to self: don’t pay full price for bleachers seats ever again (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Those misting stations kind of suck, by the way.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Note to self: don’t pay full price for bleachers seats ever again (dying laughing)[/quote]
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I’m a terrible customer.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Kosuke hollow OBP < .370 now.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Kosuke hollow OBP < .370 now.[/quote]A hollow OBP at that.
binkyQuote Reply
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-gillick-speculation-spreads-at-wrigley-field-20110720,0,5081277.story
Sullivan says Ricketts calls bullshit on reports he talked to Gillick.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Castro is striking out a lot lately.
ACTQuote Reply
Kaplan tweet:
I may have to tune in to hear this.
Aisle424Quote Reply
From Mish’s hollow OBP link:
Yup…time to put Tony Campana in RF.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]
[/quote]
I’m going to have to save that one for when Al bitches about a sale again.
Aisle424Quote Reply
fucking kaplan.
dylanjQuote Reply
Can Ricketts please just god damn do something. I can’t take another year of this bullshit team.
[quote name=Rice Cube]From Mish’s hollow OBP link:
Yup…time to put Tony Campana in RF.[/quote]Byrd in right, Campy in center. Byrd has really good career numbers in right. Once we trade Byrd, then whatever.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Kaplan tweet:
I may have to tune in to hear this.[/quote]
He’ll shake his fist at the world.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New OV Pic of the Day: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/ov-pic-of-the-day-dempster-doesnt-have-a-good-poker-face.html
Aisle424Quote Reply