NL Central preview: Houston Astros

In Major League Baseball by berselius53 Comments

Last Year:

The Astros started off the year with eight straight losses, and were sitting at 17 games below .500 at the all-star break. However, they turned things around somewhat in the second half of the season, going 40-33 despite trading co-faces of the franchise Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt at the trade deadline. Much like the Pirates the Astros did well against the Cubs, going 11-7 against them.

The Astros had the second-worst offense in MLB last year, and their team .296 wOBA was better than only the Marlins. Their fielding was right around average and it was their pitching that propelled them into fourth place in the division. Wandy Rodriguez, Felipe Paulino, Brett Myers, and the now-departed Roy Oswalt all posted FIPs below 3.6.

Offseason Moves:

The Astros haven’t been particularly active this offseason, which is unusual given Ed Lynch’s penchant for signing mediocre relievers to long-term deals. Maybe he’d be interested in John Grabow? They actually traded away a reliever for once, rather than signing new ones, when they moved closer Matt Lindstrom to Colorado for some minor league arms.

They traded SP Felipe Paulino to Colorado for former Rookie of the Year and venison lover Clint Barmes, who was penciled in as their starting shortstop until he broke his hand in spring training. He should miss the first 4-6 weeks of the season. They also picked up Mariners castoffs Ryan Rowland-Smith and Bill Hall.

Players To Watch:

Hunter Pence, I guess? Berkman has taken his awkward picture taking talents to Saint Louis. Now that Oswalt is gone as well, Pence is the de facto face of the franchise. However, the perpetually underrated Wandy Rodriguez and noted public spousal abuser Brett Myers are projected to be their top two players in 2011.

The minor league system is bare, and to add insult to injury one of their top prospects, catcher Jason Castro, tore his ACL in spring training and will miss most of if not all of the 2011 season. Their other top prospect, SS Jio Mier, is still in A-ball so we won’t see him anytime soon. 

Projections:

Here’s a rough look at their team headed into the 2011 season. Since we don’t know a ton about not the Cubs, we used Baseball Prospectus’s depth charts to estimate playing time. The players OBP/SLG are a simple average of their PECOTA and Oliver projections. The defensive numbers are from the players’ 2010 Fan Scouting Report, and baserunning was ignored unless a player was especially good (i.e. Bourn) or awful on the basepaths.

Hitter Pos PA OBP SLG Fld WAR
Humberto Quintero CA 311 0.268 0.330 0.5 -0.19
J.R. Towles CA 300 0.305 0.364 0 0.46
Brett Wallace 1B 600 0.315 0.408 0.1 -0.07
Carlos Lee 1B 46 0.317 0.452 0 0.05
Bill Hall 2B 600 0.290 0.396 0.2 0.33
Jeff Keppinger 2B 64 0.329 0.373 -0.5 0.06
Clint Barmes SS 600 0.290 0.382 -0.3 0.09
Tommy Manzella SS 100 0.294 0.327 0.1 -0.07
Chris Johnson 3B 600 0.301 0.425 -0.3 0.75
Jeff Keppinger 3B 81 0.329 0.373 -0.5 0.07
Carlos Lee LF 591 0.317 0.452 -1 0.24
Jason Michaels LF 106 0.303 0.393 0 -0.06
Michael Bourn CF 600 0.322 0.338 0.8 1.93
Jason Michaels CF 100 0.303 0.393 0 0.08
Hunter Pence RF 634 0.325 0.457 0.3 1.79
Jason Michaels RF 79 0.303 0.393 0 -0.05

 

Pitcher S/R IP ERA WAR
W Rodriguez S 194 3.83 3.51
Myers S 201 3.95 3.32
Happ S 150 4.3 1.83
Norris S 182 4.58 1.64
Figueroa S 140 3.96 2.3
A Rodriguez S 75 5.23 0.18
Lyon R 72 3.64 1.38
Melocon R 63 3.84 0.65
Lopez R 70 4.91 -0.31

TOTAL WIN PROJECTION: 68.4

I know MB says he never counts out the Astros because of his feeling that, much like the Angels, they tend to outperform their projections. If they do outperform it by 8-10 games they could be a threat to the Cubs hopes for fourth place.


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  2. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I’m liking these previews, b.[/quote]
    It’s a good warm up for the series previews. I forgot how much fun those could be to make.

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  4. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]It’s a good warm up for the series previews. I forgot how much fun those could be to make.[/quote]I always loved reading your previews. I suppose I need to figure out what I’m going to set up for game threads. Usually I already have that done about a week into spring training. (dying laughing)

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  8. Berselius

    [quote name=dylanj]I always loved reading your previews.

    Quit rubbing your wieners together.[/quote]
    At least they are Vienna Beef now.

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  17. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]That was fun.[/quote]I always like doing it. I wonder if the surveys I’ve done over the last few years have taken ballots away from Tango’s. In 2009 there were about 100 people who filled out the ballot I set up. Prior to last year it was down to around 55, but I ran the survey 3 different times. This year I only had it up a few days before I grabbed the results and 50-some filled it out.

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  19. mb21

    I think it’s starting in July this year. Can’t wait. That season should end about the time Dexter’s season is starting and then Shameless season 2 starts when that ends. Shameless had its season finale last night. I’ve asked before if any are watching, but you should be. It quickly became one of my favorites.

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  20. mb21

    AC pointed out yesterday that the mobile version of this site didn’t have a login module. I just added it, but all I can check it on is the iphone. Surely some of you fucks have some other device.

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  21. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]AC pointed out yesterday that the mobile version of this site didn’t have a login module. I just added it, but all I can check it on is the iphone. Surely some of you fucks have some other device.[/quote]
    I was happy that you set up a mobile version because the old ACB loaded obscenely slowly on the iPhone.

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  23. Mish

    [quote name=mb21]AC pointed out yesterday that the mobile version of this site didn’t have a login module. I just added it, but all I can check it on is the iphone. Surely some of you fucks have some other device.[/quote]
    Build me an iPad app please.

    Page works just fine in Safari, tho.

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  25. GBTS

    [quote name=mb21]AC pointed out yesterday that the mobile version of this site didn’t have a login module. I just added it, but all I can check it on is the iphone. Surely some of you fucks have some other device.[/quote]I’ll have an Android to try it out with in like 8 hours.

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  26. mb21

    [quote name=Manni Stats]Build me an iPad app please.

    Page works just fine in Safari, tho.[/quote]The Ipad doesn’t show the mobile version of sites, right?

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  27. GBTS

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]Oh, and who won that trophy?[/quote]That’ll go to the winner of Discredited Fantasy Baseball.

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  28. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]I always like doing it. I wonder if the surveys I’ve done over the last few years have taken ballots away from Tango’s. In 2009 there were about 100 people who filled out the ballot I set up. Prior to last year it was down to around 55, but I ran the survey 3 different times. This year I only had it up a few days before I grabbed the results and 50-some filled it out.[/quote]

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  30. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=GBTS]That’ll go to the winner of Discredited Fantasy Baseball.[/quote]
    OK, then who won the douche of the decade or whatever?

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  31. Mish

    [quote name=mb21]The Ipad doesn’t show the mobile version of sites, right?[/quote]
    When I navigated to it initially, it took me to the mobile view, but I just clicked to the standard view and it’s working great.

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  32. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]everyone I know has an iphone.[/quote]
    Well aren’t you and your friends hot shit?!

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  33. Mish

    [quote name=Manni Stats]When I navigated to it initially, it took me to the mobile view, but I just clicked to the standard view and it’s working great.[/quote]
    Most pages open in standard view, but there have been other sites that initially took me to the mobile page as well.

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  34. Suburban kid

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]Well aren’t you and your friends hot shit?![/quote]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL7yD-0pqZg

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  35. Mish

    So I’m a bit behind – what exactly is up with the Cubs and Silva’s contract? There’s just so much bad info out right now that’s contradicting stuff I’ve read here.

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  37. mb21

    Silva is being paid $11.5 million this season plus a $2 million buyout. The M’s have paid the Cubs $5.5 million so the Cubs owe him $6 million. I’m pretty sure the M’s are also on the hook for the buyout.

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  38. Mish

    [quote name=mb21]Silva is being paid $11.5 million this season plus a $2 million buyout. The M’s have paid the Cubs $5.5 million so the Cubs owe him $6 million. I’m pretty sure the M’s are also on the hook for the buyout.[/quote]
    Got it, this is what I thought. I feel like I’m still seeing posts where they say the Cubs are on the hook for all of it, or at least, the posts aren’t being specific enough so that the post reads as if they are eating all of it.

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  39. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Silva is being paid $11.5 million this season plus a $2 million buyout. The M’s have paid the Cubs $5.5 million so the Cubs owe him $6 million. I’m pretty sure the M’s are also on the hook for the buyout.[/quote]
    The buyout part is the only part I’m not sure about. Each source says something different but I’m certain the Cubs have to eat at least that $6MM. Where did you hear about Seattle’s responsibility for covering the extra $2MM?

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  40. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Suburban Kid]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL7yD-0pqZg[/quote]
    Didn’t watch.

    (dying laughing)

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  41. mb21

    But then you have to add in that Marlon Byrd is being paid about $5 million and Alfonso Soriano is being paid $18 million so the Cubs are really on the hook for about $29 million for Carlos Silva. That doesn’t even include Matt Garza, Carlos Marmol and Carlos Zambrano.

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  42. mb21

    [quote name=Manni Stats]Got it, this is what I thought. I feel like I’m still seeing posts where they say the Cubs are on the hook for all of it, or at least, the posts aren’t being specific enough so that the post reads as if they are eating all of it.[/quote]Not just posts like that, but Sullivan implied yesterday that since the Cubs signed Marlon Byrd with some money they saved by trading Bradley that they’re actually paying Silva $11.5 million. Sullivan though, he ain’t too smart.

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  45. mb21

    Every time I see Manni Stats I’m reminded of Dewayne Staats for some reason. I remember his days with the Cubs back in the late 80s.

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  46. GBTS

    [quote name=mb21]But then you have to add in that Marlon Byrd is being paid about $5 million and Alfonso Soriano is being paid $18 million so the Cubs are really on the hook for about $29 million for Carlos Silva. That doesn’t even include Matt Garza, Carlos Marmol and Carlos Zambrano.[/quote](dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  47. GBTS

    The Cubs also have to pay for travel expenses for 81 road games, so there’s another couple tens of millions of dollars they’re paying Silva.

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  48. Mish

    [quote name=mb21]Every time I see Manni Stats I’m reminded of Dewayne Staats for some reason. I remember his days with the Cubs back in the late 80s.[/quote]
    It was a nickname given to me but Staats currently does TV for the Rays game so I still here his voice. I think they dropped Kevin Kennedy this year, but unsure.

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  49. GBTS

    [quote name=Manni Stats]I know journalism majors are probably not the sharpest math or business minds, but jesus fucking christ.[/quote]Sullivan’s financial analysis of Silva’s contract only makes sense if you think Marlon Byrd has been playing at no expense to the Cubs.

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  50. AndCounting

    [quote name=GBTS]Sullivan’s financial analysis of Silva’s contract only makes sense if you think Marlon Byrd has been playing at no expense to the Cubs.[/quote]It’s true. And if someone signs Carlos Silva, the Cubs still have to pay his contract AND the team who signs him gets to have Marlon Byrd for free.

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  51. Suburban kid

    [quote name=GBTS]Sullivan’s financial analysis of Silva’s contract only makes sense if you think Marlon Byrd has been playing at no expense to the Cubs.[/quote]Hasn’t he? I thought getting rid of Bradley enabled the Cubs to sign Byrd, therefore, his salary comes from Silva’s contract.

    /North Side Hermaphroditic Gnome

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  52. Mish

    What you guys are forgetting is that half of what is owed to Silva is actually a down payment on the rights to negotiate with Albert Pujols after the season.

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