Several people on Another Cubs Blog had asked us to write something that explained some of the stats that we often reference in articles and comments. It was always something that I wanted to do, but never got around to it. Since several have asked before and now that we’ve created a new blog with Tim and Adam, it seems more appropriate than ever to finally stop being lazy and get it done. Maybe we’ll even convince a few more of you of the value of advanced statistics compared to the traditional ones. No big deal if we don’t.
To keep things as simple as possible, Berselius and I are going to break this down into several parts. We can’t possibly cover all the stats that may show up here at times, but we can cover the majority of them.
The most oft-cited offensive statistic is going to be weighted on-base average (wOBA). It’s a fantastic statistic, but to explain why it’s needed let’s back up and look at OBP and SLG. Each of those stats values a certain aspect of hitting. OBP measures the rate at which a player has reached base safely via hit, walk and hit by pitch. Some people, usually myself if I take time to calculate it, will also include reached on errors while excluding intentional walks. It’s the rate at which batters reach base. It has its flaws. It considers a walk and a home run equally. We know they are not.
Slugging measures the total bases a batter has hit for per at-bat. It’s the measure of how many bases were advanced on the base hits. However, SLG does not even consider how often a batter gets on base. We have two stats that provide two valuable pieces of information, but each piece by itself ignores much about hitting.
To make up for these flaws, people began adding them together to create OPS. The problem with OPS is that it treats OBP and SLG equally, but the most valuable aspect of hitting is not making outs. Football, basketball and hockey are measured in time. After a set amount of time the game is over. Each minute is hugely important. Baseball’s clock is outs. Each team gets 27 of them and each one brings you closer to the end of the game. OBP is more important than SLG yet OPS considers them equal. This is why we needed a new statistic and thanks to The Book authors tangotiger, MGL and Dolphin, we have that stat.
It’s called wOBA. It weights the value of reaching base and the number of bases advanced to create a rate statistic that is then scaled to OBP because we’re so familiar with what are good and bad OBP’s. wOBA starts by calculating the run value of each offensive event in baseball. No, not all hits are going to result in runs while sometimes they may result in 2 or 3 runs, but each single helps produce runs while each out does not. The same thing is true for any event.
Don’t be afraid of the formula though. It may seem overwhelming at first: wOBA = (.72*(BB – IBB) + .75*HPB + .90*S + .92*ROE + 1.24*D + 1.56*T + 1.95*HR)/PA. The first thing you may be wondering is why aren’t the value of the walk and hit by pitch the same? It has to do with the control of the pitcher. The single is more valuable than the walk because singles can score runners from 2nd and sometimes there are errors after a single. Everything else is rather straightforward in terms of the values of each event.
The reason I say not to be afraid of that formula, is that it’s actually a more simple formula than something like OPS, which almost all baseball fans are familiar with at this point. OPS is based on two stats and each of those stats has a formula. Below are the formula for each.
OBP=(Hits+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
SLG=(1B+2B*2+3B*3+HR*4)/AB
That makes the formula for OPS (see below):
OPS=((Hits+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)) + ((1B+2B*2+3B*3+HR*4)/AB)
Compare that to wOBA
wOBA=(.72*BB+.75*HBP+.9*1B+.92*ROE+1.24*2B+1.56*3B+1.95*HR)/PA
There are also versions of wOBA that incorporate stolen bases and caught stealings. Fangraphs wOBA figures include each. It’s important to note that the values above change slightly from year to year based on the run evironment during the season. A .335 league average OBP (also league average wOBA) could be .328 the following year or .323. Maybe it will be .338. This changes the value of each event.
If the formula is still overwhelming, focus more on the processes of the the three metrics I’ve referenced. When calculating OBP, HR=1, BB=1 and so on. All the stats used in OBP are equal to 1 even though some of those events are less than others. For SLG, single=1, double=2, triple=3, and home run=4. SLG assumes each additional base is twice as valuable as the previous one, which is also not true. A home run is not four times as valuable as a single.
wOBA uses the more accurate weights for each event, relative to the out, and combines both aspects of hitting (reaching base and bases gained) into a rate statistic we’re all familiar with. The stat is then adjusted so that the leaguve average wOBA is equal to whatever the league average OBP is.
Why should you care about wOBA? Because it has a direct relationship with the the number of runs produced. Runs, as you know, lead to wins. So rather than being a number like OBP that only tells us the rate at which a player reached base safely, wOBA tells us exaclty how many runs the player was worth. We can then convert those runs to wins, which is really what we want to know.
To convert wOBA into runs we simply subtract league average wOBA (equal to whatever league OBP is) from the player’s wOBA, divide the total by 1.15, add in league runs per plate appearance and then multiply it all by the number of PA the player had. In simpler terms, the formula is below.
wRC (weighted runs created)=((wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15+lgR/PA)*PA
We now have the number of runs the player contributed based on his wOBA. We can also compare the player’s wOBA to the average player in terms of runs above average.
wRAA (weighted runs above average)=(wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15*PA
The 1.15 is the scale used to adjust wOBA so that it’s on the OBP scale and it changes slightly from one year to the next, but is always around 1.15.
Still having trouble swallowing all this? Try to think of the various events in terms of how excited you get when the Cubs are batting. Imagine a close game in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning with 1 out. A single will get you to think that they have something going, but they’re a long way from scoring that run. A double though, now you’re got a guy in scoring position who can score on a single. You’re more excited because that run is more likely to score. Imagine a triple. You’re very excited now because that runner can come home on a base hit, wild pitch, passed ball, infield grounder or sac fly. The chance of scoring that much needed run is pretty good. A home run. You’re as happy with that plate appearance as possible. Now add in the emotions you may feel for a walk, hit by pitch, and so forth. In that particular situation a hit and BB or HBP woud be the same, but over the course of a game that’s obviously not true.
The weights used in wOBA reflect how excited you got after each event.
As mentioned, the great thing about having the value in runs is that we can easily convert it to wins. That’s another post and we have to look at defense and baserunning before that one anyway.
Comments
If anybody wants the last spot in Discredited Fantasy Baseball, e-mail acbfantasybaseball@g mail.com We’re going to draft tomorrow night.
GBTSQuote Reply
I know he’s had a ton of success and is regarded as a good mind and handler of players, but I’m really not a fan of Mike Scioscia’s managing. Think he’s overrated, not unlike Ron Gardenhire.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/03/29/mark-trumbo-may-share-time-at-first-base-for-the-angels-because-of-defense/
MishQuote Reply
This is an excellent post, mb. Although it is a little on the statfaggish side.
GBTSQuote Reply
Hilarious. Good luck with your blog.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
It says March 27 next to the post. No one wonder people always blast this blog, yadda yadda…
GBTSQuote Reply
Seriously, though, this is excellent work. And much needed.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Have you considered making a FAQ bar or a Saberlibrary-style bar on the taskbar above Z-facepalm? Then you can stash your stats-y posts there for easy reference, which would be helpful to n00bs like myself.
Awesome post. I knew about wOBA from reading the saberlibrary prior to their merging with FanGraphs, but this was explained much better.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]It says March 27 next to the post. No one wonder people always blast this blog, yadda yadda…[/quote]How about some clean language? Again, this is your last chance.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
You didn’t compare it to R+RBI. The formula for R+RBI is (see below):
R+RBI=(R+RBI)
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I would have liked to see WP+PB/IP factored into the analysis too.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Have you considered making a FAQ bar or a Saberlibrary-style bar on the taskbar above Z-facepalm? Then you can stash your stats-y posts there for easy reference, which would be helpful to n00bs like myself.
Awesome post. I knew about wOBA from reading the saberlibrary prior to their merging with FanGraphs, but this was explained much better.[/quote]
Then again you have all the sabermetrics links on the sidebar to other sites so I guess it’s not really all that necessary.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I guess that doesn’t work anymore.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ka2kpzTAL8
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I remember this quote from the comments over at BtB, I’m pretty sure it’s accurate but one of the more savvy guys can correct it:
“wOBA is the number of runs per plate appearance a player is worth if he were surrounded by league average players” – and I don’t think that was refuted in that forum.
MishQuote Reply
It’s dated the 27th because that’s when I started writing it. I didn’t feel like changing the date since it was a post about a statistic.
Berselius and Adam helped me out here with some wording. I hope it’s accurate. I’ve read through it several times and can’t find any glaring mistakes, but I won’t be surprised if Tango links to this and points a few out.
mb21Quote Reply
Tango had a great piece in the last year about how linear weights are derived that’s really easy to follow (“a batter comes up with no runners on x% of time, and with one runner on first y% of time – if he hits a single, there’s a z% the runner on first advances to second, w% he advances to third”, etc) but I can’t seem to find it right now.
MishQuote Reply
RC, when we get these posts done, whenever that ends up being, I plan to link to the series on the menu. I’ve added some tooltips for some stats as you’ve seen, but it’s kind of limited. At the very least it gives people a better idea than just looking at UZR, wOBA, and having no idea what the fuck anybody is talking about.
mb21Quote Reply
Billingsley ———> 3/35 extension with LAD
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://retrosimba.com/2011/03/29/bill-white-we-thought-brock-deal-was-nuts/
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Billingsley ———> 3/35 extension with LAD[/quote]Ned Colletti will never learn. Darren Dreifort can be contacted from his nap on top of a giant pile of money to confirm this.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
That’s an excellent summation, MB.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Anyone know why ROE is worth more than S? Is it because occasionally you get two bases when reaching on an error?
Jared McKiernanQuote Reply
[quote name=Jared McKiernan]Anyone know why ROE is worth more than S? Is it because occasionally you get two bases when reaching on an error?[/quote]
I don’t know what S is worth, but I assume roe is worth more because it has the ability to create life AND tastes good.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I can’t remember if I said it in the post or not, but it’s important to remember that the run values used in wOBA are relative the run value of the out. Off the top of my head I’m thinking the run value of an out is -.3 runs while the home run is about 1.4 runs or so. The difference is about 1.7. wOBA then increases each of the weights by 15% to match the league average OBP. It’s around 15%. It changes from year to year.
I may have excluded that because it makes it more complicated.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Jared McKiernan]Anyone know why ROE is worth more than S? Is it because occasionally you get two bases when reaching on an error?[/quote]
That sounds right. I forgot where I read that at though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Jared McKiernan]Anyone know why ROE is worth more than S? Is it because occasionally you get two bases when reaching on an error?[/quote]Yes, exactly. Some errors are just a groundball resulting in one base. Some may be a single and a 2-base error. Others could be a triple with a throwing error resulting in a run.
The reason the HBP is higher than non-intentional walk is because it takes worse control to hit a batter, which will result in more offense, but they’re close enough anyway.
mb21Quote Reply
I guess the best way to put it is that errors lead to at least one base while a single is exactly one base.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I guess the best way to put it is that errors lead to at least one base while a single is exactly one base.[/quote]
This makes the most sense. Thanks.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The IBB is excluded in wOBA because the value of the IBB is much less than the NIBB. While the IBB is usually not a smart decision by the pitching team, they almost always come in places where the walk does much less damage than an NIBB would.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]The reason the HBP is higher than non-intentional walk is because it takes worse control to hit a batter, which will result in more offense, but they’re close enough anyway.[/quote]Also, the occasional NIBB leads to Ronny Cedeno getting thrown out at second.
This is awesome, mb. I look forward to more of these.
AndCountingQuote Reply
ROE, IBBs and NIBBs are these anything like the beeps, the sweeps and the creeps?
RadarQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Ned Colletti will never learn. Darren Dreifort can be contacted from his nap on top of a giant pile of money to confirm this.[/quote]
I like the deal, at first glance. It buys out his last arb year and gets his first 2 FA years, plus an option for another year. THT has him worth about 9.5 WAR over those 3 years, and 3 WAR in the option year.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]The IBB is excluded in wOBA because the value of the IBB is much less than the NIBB. While the IBB is usually not a smart decision by the pitching team, they almost always come in places where the walk does much less damage than an NIBB would.[/quote]
Do you think there’s a discrepancy between the intentional walk being included in OBP but not wOBA?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
One thing that bugs me about HBP is how it’s credited to the batter in lwts. There are some guys who are better at getting HBPs (Biggio, Baylor, etc.) but since wOBA is a context-neutral stat you’re really crediting a batter for a pitcher’s mistake.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Radar]ROE, IBBs and NIBBs are these anything like the beeps, the sweeps and the creeps?[/quote]I think they all have a lot in common.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Do you think there’s a discrepancy between the intentional walk being included in OBP but not wOBA?[/quote]Not really because the good players are the ones who get intentionally walked and their wOBA’s are going to be off the charts anyway.
The two stats tell us something different too.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I like the deal, at first glance. It buys out his last arb year and gets his first 2 FA years, plus an option for another year. THT has him worth about 9.5 WAR over those 3 years, and 3 WAR in the option year.[/quote]It’s not a horrible deal, just maybe an unnecessary one. I’m always leery of locking up pitchers who are already under team control. I understand saving money on a guy you want around, but with the risk of injury in a pitcher like Billingsly, it’s just a big risk. I suppose the question a GM has to weigh is whether he wants to risk having another Dreifort on his hands, or risk losing a no. 1 starter because of injury scares. Not an easy decision when you think about it, and I’m probably being too hard on Ned here.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]One thing that bugs me about HBP is how it’s credited to the batter in lwts. There are some guys who are better at getting HBPs (Biggio, Baylor, etc.) but since wOBA is a context-neutral stat you’re really crediting a batter for a pitcher’s mistake.[/quote]The same could be said for the ROE.
I don’t mind if the ROE and HBP are included, but you have to adjust the denominator if you remove them. There is a ROE and HBP skill. Won’t we end up in about the same place?
mb21Quote Reply
I agree with MO here. I’m not a fan of locking pitchers up who have more than one year of club control left. I know I suggested the Cubs should do that with Garza, but that was just the better option than re-signing Marmol to a 3-year extension. I wouldn’t have signed either of them to extensions.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-putting-barry-bonds-career-into-perspective-2011-3
Pretty insane.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]The same could be said for the ROE.
I don’t mind if the ROE and HBP are included, but you have to adjust the denominator if you remove them. There is a ROE and HBP skill. Won’t we end up in about the same place?[/quote]
The good thing about them is that they happen so rarely relative to the rest of the events
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]The good thing about them is that they happen so rarely relative to the rest of the events[/quote]
A polar bear fell on me.
TinkerQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Pretty insane.[/quote]
Let’s keep the language clean. That’s a human being.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Tinker]A polar bear fell on me.[/quote]I send a flying pig to pull him off of you.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Let’s keep the language clean. That’s a human being.[/quote]
With shrunken balls.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]With shrunken balls.[/quote]Did you measure those shrunken balls with an orchidometer?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Did you measure those shrunken balls with an orchidometer?[/quote]Be. Nice. Prove me wrong.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
The article I saw said they were misshapen balls. Didn’t mention their size, despite all the pre-trial orchidometer hype.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Did you measure those shrunken balls with an orchidometer?[/quote]
Dave, this conversation can serve no purpose anymore. Goodbye.
HalQuote Reply
[quote name=Hal]Dave, this conversation can serve no purpose anymore. Goodbye.[/quote]You don’t like ball talk? Would you rather talk about the ball game?
mb21Quote Reply
SK, your Jack Benny post has taken final resting spot as the top post on ACB for the rest of time. Congrats. You’re going to be famous. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Does anyone else find it odd that the manager and the GM had to mouth off, but the pitching coach and the other players didn’t say anything?
I don’t mean odd in that the players and the pitching coach were wrong, but in that one group obviously knew what to do in such a situation…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]SK, your Jack Benny post has taken final resting spot as the top post on ACB for the rest of time. Congrats. You’re going to be famous. (dying laughing)[/quote]
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
I had to go back and read that again.
LukasQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Does anyone else find it odd that the manager and the GM had to mouth off, but the pitching coach and the other players didn’t say anything?
I don’t mean odd in that the players and the pitching coach were wrong, but in that one group obviously knew what to do in such a situation…[/quote]Sometimes when a leader in any situation rushes to respond vehemently against something like that, everyone else loses the urge to add to it. And the opposite can hold true when leadership downplays the matter, other people feel someone needs to say something. That could have been Quade and Hendry’s approach to this, I don’t know. Speak out about it so no one else does. I don’t think it’s the case, but it’s possible.
AndCountingQuote Reply
I hadn’t thought of that, AC, but it makes sense.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You don’t like ball talk? Would you rather talk about the ball game?[/quote]
Let’s not talk about the Cubs game, I don’t like mistakes. I had to kill Bob Morton because he made a mistake. Now it’s time to erase that mistake.
KOOGYQuote Reply
[quote name=KOOGY]Let’s not talk about the Cubs game, I don’t like mistakes. I had to kill Bob Morton because he made a mistake. Now it’s time to erase that mistake.[/quote]
(dying laughing) KOOGY.
Good point AC.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Just did a 5×5, 12 man league – Stats are OBP, TB, RBI, SB, R
QS, SV, ERA, K, WHIP
C – Mauer
1B – Ki’la/Freeman
2B – Kelly Johnson
3B – Longoria
SS – Castro
OF – Stanton
OF – Choo
OF – Swisher
UTIL – Sizemore
SP – Hamels
SP – Hanson
P – Jimenez
P – Anderson
P – Shields
P – Zimmerman
RP – Feliz
RP – Thornton
(obligatory “Cool Story bro” anticipated)
MishQuote Reply
I want Hill to play every day now so I can keep reading KOOGY.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]1B – Ki’la
[/quote]
Alvin?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://deadspin.com/#!5786736/out+of+date-fantasy-advice-from-someone-who-isnt-really-paying-attention
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]Just did a 5×5, 12 man league – Stats are OBP, TB, RBI, SB, R
QS, SV, ERA, K, WHIP
C – Mauer
1B – Ki’la/Freeman
2B – Kelly Johnson
3B – Longoria
SS – Castro
OF – Stanton
OF – Choo
OF – Swisher
UTIL – Sizemore
SP – Hamels
SP – Hanson
P – Jimenez
P – Anderson
P – Shields
P – Zimmerman
RP – Feliz
RP – Thornton
(obligatory “Cool Story bro” anticipated)[/quote]Whenever I look at someone fantasy roster I want MLB to contract at least a dozen teams so I can watch so much more talent on just one team.
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t get all the love for Freeman in the FLB crowd.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Anyone see this:
http://baseballmusings.com/?p=65981
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I don’t get all the love for Freeman in the FLB crowd.[/quote]
FLB?
He was my very last round Pick, BTW, as insurance against Ki’la not living up to his projections. (PECOTA has a monster projection for him)
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I want Hill to play every day now so I can keep reading KOOGY.[/quote]
Had the other reliever reached his pitch count or something? I still can’t believe they brought in a reliever to face Koyie Hill. And then the reliever hits Koyie. That’s got to be embarrassing.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]FLB?
He was my very last round Pick, BTW, as insurance against Ki’la not living up to his projections. (PECOTA has a monster projection for him)[/quote]
Yeah, but Pecota (as well as all the other systems) don’t think much of Freeman (dying laughing). .263/.316/.411 for a 1b = no thanks
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Had the other reliever reached his pitch count or something? I still can’t believe they brought in a reliever to face Koyie Hill. And then the reliever hits Koyie. That’s got to be embarrassing.[/quote]No doubt that reliever went without dinner last night.
mb21Quote Reply
Also, me fail at grammer
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Also, me fail at grammer[/quote]Pecota don’t play that.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Yeah, but Pecota (as well as all the other systems) don’t think much of Freeman (dying laughing). .263/.316/.411 for a 1b = no thanks[/quote]
I used the PFM and Freeman didn’t even show up on the charts. Derrek Lee, Mitch Moreland, Dan Johnson among others are still on the waiver wire, so I’m not terribly worried.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Alvin?[/quote]
Never so offended in my life.
MishQuote Reply
Turd.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
MLB ————> Just established a 7-day DL for concussions.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Turd.[/quote]
ENOUGH!
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Turd.[/quote]
Is that like a piece of shit?
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’ve had it with your attitudes.
mb21Quote Reply
It’s not the attitude, it’s the word.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]It’s not the attitude, it’s the word.[/quote]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WNrx2jq184
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]It’s not the attitude, it’s the word.[/quote]Incorrect. You act. I feel.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WNrx2jq184[/quote]
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Incorrect. You act. I feel.[/quote]
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Kyler Burke ———————> the mound
— AZPhil
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Kyler Burke ———————> the mound
— AZPhil[/quote]Is there an explanation why Burke fell off a cliff last year? He raked at A ball in 2009.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Is there an explanation why Burke fell off a cliff last year? He raked at A ball in 2009.[/quote]Wasn’t that the only year that he’s hit well? For some reason I’m thinking it was his 2nd or 3rd try at the level too.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Wasn’t that the only year that he’s hit well? For some reason I’m thinking it was his 2nd or 3rd try at the level too.[/quote]He hit okay at lower A ball in 2008, but nothing to shit your pants about.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Is there an explanation why Burke fell off a cliff last year? He raked at A ball in 2009.[/quote]
He’s a turd.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]He hit okay at lower A ball in 2008, but nothing to shit your pants about.[/quote]
Stop. That’s still a human being you’re talking about.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’ve had it with your attitudes.[/quote]
I used to fuck guys like you in prison.
Jimmy.Quote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Stop. That’s still a human being you’re talking about.[/quote]It’s not the stopping. It’s the not continuing.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]It’s not the stopping. It’s the not continuing.[/quote]
Realize I don’t want to be a miser.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
This was a nice post, MB21. I hope you’ll do a post explaining replacement level and the value statistics that rely on that concept.
EddieQuote Reply
That will probably be toward the end of the series seeing as that’s not so much a statistic as it is a concept and valuation. I’m planning to discuss it as well as true talent level though.
I’m working on a post about baserunning and the run expectancy tables, but I won’t have that done for a couple days.
mb21Quote Reply
I thought it was a great post too. I get wOBA pretty well by now. Looking forward to more reps of FIP and WAR basics, and eventually I’ll get them too.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Eddie]This was a nice post, MB21. I hope you’ll do a post explaining replacement level and the value statistics that rely on that concept.[/quote]
Replacement level players are basically like unicorns, ghosts and goblins.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]SK, your Jack Benny post has taken final resting spot as the top post on ACB for the rest of time. Congrats. You’re going to be famous. (dying laughing)[/quote]GTFO
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’m working on a run expectancy table about the run expectancy tables, but I won’t have that done for a couple days. And not even then.[/quote].
KOOGYQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Replacement level players are basically like unicorns, ghosts and goblins.[/quote]
You can’t forget Smurfs.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Garza so far today – 0.1 IP, 1 R, bases loaded
BerseliusQuote Reply
All singles, three of them grounders up the middle
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Garza so far today – 0.1 IP, 1 R, bases loaded[/quote]
Ace!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
He managed to strike out the side to get out of it
BerseliusQuote Reply
further gripping updates as events warrant
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]further gripping updates as events warrant[/quote]So we can expect to hear from you again in spring 2014?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Opening Day 2B could be Darwin Barney.
/Len
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Opening Day 2B could be Darwin Barney.
/Len[/quote]
If that kid can stick and manage to perform anywhere close to the levels we’ve gotten out of 2nd base the last couple of years, the defense up the middle will be vastly improved.
Watching the Cubs attempt double plays could be fun again instead of cringe-inducing.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]If that kid can stick and manage to transition anywhere close to the levels we’ve gotten out of 2nd base the last couple of years, the defense up the middle will be vastly improved.
[/quote]Fixed
Suburban kidQuote Reply
If Marlon Byrd breaks a bone and is out for one or two months, who do you stick in CF — Colvin?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Opening Day 2B could be Darwin Barney.
/Len[/quote]
Not all that opposed here…until I actually got around to crunching the numbers. My split projections have Barney at a .286 wOBA vs RHP and DeWitt at .322 vs RHP. Given that Barney can handle SS and well he’s probably about a win better on defense, but overall DeWitt’s WAR per 700 PAs is about a win higher than Barney’s.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]If Marlon Byrd breaks a bone and is out for one or two months, who do you stick in CF — Colvin?[/quote]
Colvin and Perez
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]If Marlon Byrd breaks a bone and is out for one or two months, who do you stick in CF — Colvin?[/quote]
Cashner -> he can make the transition. Nevermind performance.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Opening Day could steal my sunshine.
/Len[/quote] Fixed.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
None of the OFs except for Byrd would be all that good in CF. Colvin has looked best to me, but in a very small sample. Johnson looked good three years ago, but I don’t think he’s a CF anymore.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Fixed.[/quote](dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Me and my buddy made a spreadsheet that calculates wOBA if anybody wants to play around with it and see how stuff is affected.
https://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?hl=en&key=ta7TyNgXeMFBeIvBYUb2wsQ&hl=en#gid=0
Dunno if anyone cares, but if the people who don’t fully get how it works are curious how various things affect wOBA and how much, you can mess with it there.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Texas is a state full of turds.
dylanjQuote Reply
According to GameDay, Soto just hit a grounder so hard it bounced off two defenders before forcing Ramirez out at 2B.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]According to GameDay, Soto just hit a grounder so hard it bounced off two defenders before forcing Ramirez out at 2B.[/quote]
It bounced off the third baseman, caromed to the SS and he threw the lazy Ramirez out at 2nd.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]According to GameDay, Soto just hit a grounder so hard it bounced off two defenders before forcing Ramirez out at 2B.[/quote]That’s just about how LEN described it too.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
New turd: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/11-scandalous-predictions-for-the-2011-cubs.html
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Doug]Me and my buddy made a spreadsheet that calculates wOBA if anybody wants to play around with it and see how stuff is affected.
https://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?hl=en&key=ta7TyNgXeMFBeIvBYUb2wsQ&hl=en#gid=0
Dunno if anyone cares, but if the people who don’t fully get how it works are curious how various things affect wOBA and how much, you can mess with it there.[/quote]That reminds me of the stat calculator that I have available, but took down because there were some errors I needed to fix. It has an xbabip calculator along with WAR for offense and pitching, Berselius’s splits projection tool and a few others. I’ll try and get that finished this weekend. You might really like that one and you’re more than free to put it on google to share with others.
mb21Quote Reply
I do love xBABIP. I kept trying to explain it to people with regards to Soto’s 2009 but nobody believed me. So I had a glorious time saying “Told you so” last year.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Sorry for the double, but I forgot to mention, I also have a WAR conversion one, we made this one first then added that to a different one. But since you guys didn’t talk about any of that stuff I just grabbed the wOBA one.
Also on an aside, me and my buddy made a Team Defense Formula that’s super similar to whatever metric Baseball-Prospectus uses but we made it for a game called Out of the Park Baseball to figure out how our teams defenses were faring and it turned out to basically be very similar to what they had.
Basically, I love spreadsheets.
DoogolasQuote Reply