I think 5 years is a pretty good amount of time to review a draft class. That would put us at 2008 (well, it's 4.5 years, but close enough for me).
1/19: Andrew Cashner
This pick has worked out relatively well, all things considered. Cashner had definite starter potential, and still profiles as a really good closer. Unfortunately for him, he's very injury-prone, and likely will be for the duration of his career. He's an intriguing guy, but the Cubs spun him for the even more impressive Anthony Rizzo, who looks to be the 1B of the foreseeable future.
1s/41 Ryan Flaherty
The Cubs lost Flaherty to the Orioles in the Rule V draft last year. While Flaherty never developed into a top-flight prospect, he was fairly intriguing due to his power from a MIF position. He looks to be a future utility guy, or a bench bat with some power. I don't expect much more than that, though there still is a ceiling of a productive every day player (that he is unlikely to reach).
2/65 Aaron Shafer
Swing and a miss. The righthander from Wichita State (go Shockers!) never got past AA, and after a year with the Atlanta system ended up pitching for Fargo-Moorhead in Indy Ball.
3/97 Chris Carpenter
The Cubs "spun" Carpenter into Theo Epstein, so I'm happy with it. He's another flamethrowing bullpen guy, but he got hurt as soon as he left the Cubs and ended up on waivers immediately afterwards. He cleared waivers and will start the season at AAA Pawtucket; he'll need to work on his control while rehabbing from his injuries.
4/131 Matt Cerda
Cerda was an intriguing 3B rising through the ranks until the Cardinals took him in the Rule V Minor League Phase this year. He's short on pop but looong on plate discipline; he just seems like he's going to be an unheralded find for the Cards in a few years. I liked his game when he was a Cub, though, and I'm cheering for him even if he's a Cardinal. He needs to find at least 100 points of slugging to be a real threat.
5/161 Justin Bristow
Stalled out in A ball.
6/191 Josh Harrison
The Cubs traded Harrison along with Jose Ascanio in 09 for Gorzelanny and Grabow. It was a good trade for the Cubs, and Harrison ended up being the 25th man on the Pirates roster last year (and likely this year). He can play every position except pitcher and catcher but he has little power and less discipline, so he's going to struggle to stay on major league rosters for very long.
7/221 Luis Flores
Flores is still toiling in the Cubs organization as a non-prospect. He had a nice season in 2011 (.248/.335/.504) but he's never played much for whatever reason. Maybe at some point he's a backup ML C, but I doubt even that.
8/251 James Leverton
Leverton was released in 2011 by the Cubs but I have no idea why. He wasn't anything special but he was a (relatively) recent draftee who looked to start is age-25 year in AA ball. No huge loss, but still surprising. He caught on with Miami after a stint in independent ball and finished last year as a pretty serviceable reliever/spot starter for their AA affiliate. I don't know nearly enough about Miami to know where he stands in their organization, but it wouldn't surprise me given their lack of quality arms if he ended up as a LOOGY some time next year.
9/281 Jay Jackson
There was a time when I thought Jackson could be a serviceable back-end starter. Those days are long past, though, and Jackson just hopes to get to the bigs at some point in his career. He's not likely to break into the pros with the Cubs, though, because he's got a dozen interchangeable relievers ahead of him at this point. He's best off getting released and trying to get a fresh start somewhere else.
10/311 Alex Wilson
The Cubs failed to sign Alex, who was drafted in the 2nd round by Boston in the 2009 draft. He looks to be an option in their MLB bullpen this year.
Other Notable Draftees
13/401 Tony Campana
You already know enough about Campana.
15/461 Casey Coleman
Coleman got roster-screwed this year. He probably deserves a shot in the pen, but he has options and he isn't on the 40-man. I'd expect Coleman to get an opportunity in Chicago again this year.
18/551 Jeff Beliveau
Got a cup with Chicago last year, ended up waived and claimed by Texas. Great minor league numbers and could definitely end up being productive in the future. Kind of sad he's gone.
21/641 Logan Watkins
Ended up as a decent prospect. I'd imagine he's got a chance to join the big league team at the end of this year if things go the right way for him.
27/821 Sonny Gray
Didn't end up signing. Was a global top-100 prospect in the Athletics system in 2012, who drafted him with the 18th overall pick in 2011.
36/1091 Michael Brenly
A favor for Bob, Brenly may very well make it to the big leagues as a backup catcher.
37/1121 Erik Hamren
Apparently saw 12.1 innings of work for the Padres in 2011. Never heard of him.
46/1386 Tony Zych
A power bullpen arm that might end up in the bullpen at some point in the season (and has a darkhorse shot at breaking camp this year, I think).
EDIT: It's been pointed out that Zych didn't sign in 2008 and was a Cubs re-draft. He should count as a 2011 draftee for my purposes.
Coolest Name
Tarlandas Mitchell
Generic NPC Names
Alex Wilson, Kyle Wilson, Jordan Brown, Derek Riley
Conclusion
This was a pretty average/bad draft. The best player they ended up with isn't even a Cubs draftee (it's Anthony Rizzo), but he looks to be pretty great. The Cubs also ended up with a decent utility/2B/CF prospect (Watkins) and a few middle relief profiles (Coleman, Jackson).
Comments
Aside http://obstructedview.net/site/ov-forum-update.html
dmick89Quote Reply
Is there still some legacy of Josh Harrison’s drafting in place (i.e. did we get anyone for Gorz from the Nats).
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I don’t think Logan Watkins gets enough love. No superstar potential. But I see a little Todd Walker in him.
/Todd Walker was a 2B I recently enjoyed
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Nice review. I had high hopes for Jay Jackson at one point and his decline gave me great pause about getting excited over Trey McNutt.
Gray was the one who got away, but he sent a letter to all 30 teams telling them not to draft him. Nice try by the Cubs though.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
Walker is probably a pretty good comparison.
dmick89Quote Reply
Although the Cubs drafted Zych in 2008, he didn’t sign, opting to go to Louisville instead. The Cubs drafted him again in 2011 (4th round), at which point he signed. I don’t really think you can count Zych in the 2008 draft return.
HomerJQuote Reply
HomerJ wrote:
That’s a good point. That makes a slightly sparse draft sparser.
I actually really like Logan Watkins. His power is developing, he’s never repeated a level (and likely won’t, he’s should start at 2B at AAA next year), and he’s got a good eye. If he ends up as Todd Walker, I’ll be thrilled, but I think he’s got every chance to be a slightly better Marco Scutaro or someone like that.
MylesQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I remember that and thought it was awesome.
Suburban kid wrote:
Gorzelanny was traded for AJ Morris, Graham Hicks, and Michael Burgess. Burgess was Rule V’ed. Morris is a fringe pitching prospect who had shoulder surgery in 2011. Hicks was released and is already back with the Nationals.
MylesQuote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
I think Watkins will definitely have a future in MLB, but probably not a star. He may end up a utility player, but I think he’s a good bet to reach the big leagues and play for at least a few years.
dmick89Quote Reply
So… Scott Kazmir is back in a big-league rotation. No word on Victor Zambrano.
GWQuote Reply
Good article on perpetually concussed almost-Cub Brian Roberts.
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
He must have beat out Wade Miller and Angel Guzman
MylesQuote Reply
GW wrote:
*kicks rock*
Dewon BrazeltonQuote Reply
@ Dewon Brazelton:
*ducks*
Dewon Brazelton’s FianceeQuote Reply
Wow, all this new content recently. We aren’t going to get to 200 comments this way!
Anyway, GW, I think you missed the point on Leyland’s comments on closers.
Some context, when Leyland’s Pirates were winning the NL East from 90-92, they had 4-6 pitchers per year with at least 3 saves, and their “closer” (if you can call Stan Belinda or Bill Landrum that) never sniffed 50% of the team’s saves. Of course, 2 years ago Valverde was lights out, so Leyland knows both ways.
As you said, he gave an honest answer. A manager’s job is easier when you can turn to one guy all the time and not think about it, and not have to listen to the media second guess you. That’s pretty refreshing. Better than, “We have confidence Rondon will turn it around as long as he plays within himself and slows the game down.” (I hate these WTF cliche answers. Maybe I’ll catalog them for OV this year in the newly reclaimed Forum.)
I don’t think Leyland is looking for the easy way out though, which is how I interpreted your commentary, perhaps unfairly. He’ll do “whatever it takes” despite knowing that “it’ll be a second-guessing…delight.” Good for him. Of course, that is what he’s paid to do. But no harm in being honest both in how his job will be more challenging this year, and in how the media will over-react to it. I predict that by April 7 he’ll be able to say “I told you so” on both accounts.
SVBQuote Reply
Link to the Leyland article above, or get it from GW’s post.
SVBQuote Reply
Not sure you can look at save totals from the early 90s and compare them to today.
I can’t speak for GW but I think the point was that Leyland was honest in why he wouldn’t go with a closer by committee. Not because it won’t work, but because of the second guessing.
dmick89Quote Reply
SVB wrote:
No. He won’t.
1. Todd Jones 2006-2008
2. Jose Valverde 2012
GWQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
yep.
GWQuote Reply
New Aside
MylesQuote Reply
@ GW:
Could be. He trotted out Bill Landrum in 1989 to the tune of 23 saves out of 40-41, something like that. Pirates were 5th. Landrum clearly was an effective reliever but not a true closer. Switched his game plan to closer by committee and they had a more effective bullpen.
Of course, those days weren’t so far removed from Whitey Herzog shuttling Ken (?) Dailey and Todd Worrell back and forth between LF and RP to close/maximize match ups.
Perhaps the media circus is so strong now that Leyland can’t/won’t go to closer by committee. We’ll see. If anyone can do it, he should be able to, unlike some near-rookie manager like Sveum.
Point taken about Jones in 2007-08. The Tigers didn’t have anyone in the bullpen who didn’t issue a ton of walks, and in 08 Leyland basically replaced Jones with Rodney and got the same result. Probably Bobby Seay should have had more save opps in 07. So Leyland had 7 bad options and instead of spread out the pain, he still focused on Jones as closer. Maybe that was better than ruining a kid with a bunch of blown saves (like Zumaya, if he hadn’t been injured). I think in 2006 Leyland managed the bullpen fine. Jones was good. WHIP about the same as anyone else but much lower BB/9 than anyone else. Rodney still got a few saves.
Last year Leyland should have pulled the plug on Valverde earlier and he had enough arms to do it, which supports your point, GW.
This year Leyland has a good pen but no closer, unlike 07-08. Perfect spot for closer by committee, in my opinion. So we’ll see if the optimist in me is right in interpreting Leyland’s comments, or if you are right. I don’t like the designated closer idea much, so I hope I’m right.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Todd Jones was basically Rafael Dolis with slightly better control, and he held the job for two and a half years. I just don’t see the relevance in making comparisons to the late 80s and early 90s, when it is abundantly clear that these days Leyland is making the decision based on the answer to the question “has this guy closed before?” and insulating himself in the process.
For this year, Joaquin Benoit is a no-brainer if you insist on going with one guy, a platoon with Coke would probably be better if he was at all open to playing the matchups.
GWQuote Reply
My reference to the 80s-90s was only to say that Leyland could do it if he wanted. He’s had success with it before. It’s not like the game on the field has changed that much. The media circus and the numerical analysis of the game has changed quite a bit since then, but not the play.
Personally, I think a platoon is always the best, unless you are Mariano Rivera at peak. And I’d look at including Alburquerque and Villareal in the mix too. The stats ought to look like the 1990 Pirates. Benoit 20 S, Coke 15 S, Albu 7 S, Villareal 7 S, Rondon 4 S.
If, by July 4, Leyland is holding on to Marmol or Benoit as his go-to closer, despite that person not being particularly effective, I’ll happily accept an “I told you so, Pollyanna” from you. 😉
SVBQuote Reply
ENRICO Pallazo,
Send me an email and I’ll send you an invite for our weekly H2H CBS fantasy league. Anyone else too, we are 2 teams short. It’s a lighthearted league….
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SVBQuote Reply
I like Myles’ retrospective idea. I thought it would also be interesting to look way back to the last great Cubs team and see whatever happened to some of those highly regarded players:
1908 Chicago Cubs
Mordecai Brown: dead
Andy Coakley: dead
Chick Fraser: dead
Rube Kroh: dead
Carl Lundgren: dead
Bill Mack: dead
Orval Overall: dead
Jack Pfiester: dead
Ed Reulbach: dead
Carl Spongberg: dead
Johnny Kling: dead
Doc Marshall: dead
Pat Moran: dead
Frank Chance: dead
Johnny Evers: dead
Harry Steinfeldt: dead
Joe Tinker: dead
Heinie Zimmerman: dead
Outfielders: dead
Kid Durbin: dead
Jack Hayden: dead
Solly Hofman: dead
Del Howard: dead
Wildfire Schulte: dead
Jimmy Sheckard: dead
Jimmy Slagle: dead
Vin Campbell: dead
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
WenningtonsGorillaCock wrote:
All of them?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
What’s with all the fucking cowboys?
GBTSQuote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GBTS:
/Crazy Horse’s Last Words
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
We’re America’s blog.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Back then, there were no individual outfielders. They played as a group known only as Outfielders.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
And they shared one bat all season. And had to walk uphill both ways to get to work.
joshQuote Reply
So, I’ve been doing some research and it would appear that the Cubs are going to be playing a series of exhibition games in Houston this weekend. Other teams are also pairing off in actual MLB ballparks for a couple games.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
Damn. I had high hopes for Wildfire Schulte.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
I’m still laughing at this. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
The likes of Sullivan and Whittenmeyer didn’t even cover his death. It’s quite a blow to the Cubs organization.
dmick89Quote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/discussions#/discussion/218/nfl-coaching-decisions-on-4th-down-sacrificed-73-wins
dmick89Quote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
That team was so tight they’re all doing the same thing today. No wonder they won.
dmick89Quote Reply
So, uhh, I’ve been away for a while. Are the Cubs moving to Rosemont?
GBTSQuote Reply
http://espn.go.com/minor-league-baseball/story/_/id/9100717/lehigh-valley-ironpigs-ballpark-feature-interactive-urinal-game
I’d say that the Cubs should do this at Wrigley, but they’d have to install proper urinals first.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
OV must be 51st http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/3/comScore_Announces_US_Launch_of_Media_Metrix_Multi-Platform
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GBTS:
Yes, ballpark to be ready by opening day.
dmick89Quote Reply
ballhawk from BCB is live-tweeting today’s Wrigleyville neighborhood meeting
https://twitter.com/Ballhawk_Ken
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Damn. I’m too busy Pinteresting my neighborhood’s meeting.
dmick89Quote Reply
Random question, is Ben Wells still around? I remember he got hurt last season, but I haven’t heard anything since.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
Dammit dude… This caught me off guard and I started LITERALLY laughing out loud in the middle of a meeting this morning… Well played. (dying laughing)
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Pretty sure Wells returned late last year and would presumably still be in the organization.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Edwin:
-Insert obligatory ‘being Committed to hiding with Adrian Cardenas’ statement-
/beating a dead horse
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Maybe being committed to Adrian Cardenas is why both of them seem to have disappeared from baseball. If so, good for them. =
SVBQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Here’s one for you GBTS. I think he’s about the right age for your first cartoon movie experience.
I’m sure you can photoshop a Cubs logo on the brim.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Replaced with my actual first movie memory.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I assumed you’d go with Tracy Ringolsby
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
RE Ben Wells:
Yes, Ben Wells and his travelling ground ball circus are still with the Cubs. I believe he’s ticketed for Daytona this year along with future Southern Arkansas HOFer Hayden SImpson. AZ Phil shows Wells on the Daytona roster and that should hold even after all the cuts.
Wells had elbow problems but it was resolved with… rest??? over TJS. Not sure how that works, but that’s why I’m typing on the internet and not billing someone through the nose for medical advice.
http://www.thecubreporter.com/03192013/2013-cubs-minor-league-camp-rosters-updated-319
Chet MastersonQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah but he only wears the cowboy hat when his head isn’t up his own ass, which is rarely.
GBTSQuote Reply
Edwin wrote:
Side note: Harry Pav and I sat behind Ben Wells at a Kane County game last year when Peoria came in to play with Soler on the squad. We didn’t know it was him until Harry realized it after the game. We figured he was with the team because he was clocking and charting all the pitches, but we didn’t realize he was a player.
We spent a good part of the game trashing the system’s pitching prospects so I doubt he would have signed an autograph for us if we had realized it sooner.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
We didn’t trash him by name or anything, just in the more generalized state of pitching in the farm system, but yeah…
Aisle424Quote Reply
Guillermo Moscow Zoso ——> Cubs
GWQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
We didn’t trash him by name or anything, just in the more generalized state of pitching in the farm system, especially any such prospect pitchers who are sitting in front of us. Right now. At this game. Taking notes.
Also,
Vizcaino —–> 60-day DL
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ GW:
———-> 
Don’t you mean
Suburban kid and you got no name Your’re too dumb baby and you got no brain I bet you’re all so happy in your suburbian dream But I’m only laughing You ain’t in my schemeQuote Reply
I might be in Atlanta the weekend of April 5. Looks like plenty of tix still available for the Friday game. Anyone have any tips for attending a game with a 6-yr-old at Turner Field? Comments on seats under $50. Damn, Turner is expensive compared to Pittsburgh, which was my original plan for next week. (Friday Fireworks, I see)
SVBQuote Reply
SVB wrote:
Make sure he understands people who do the Tomahawk Chop are the worst.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ SVB:
I sat in the upper deck there once; it was pretty distant. Neighborhood seemed a bit sketchy as well, but I can’t say for sure.
GWQuote Reply
Starlin Castro —> apparently fertile
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Is that your way of telling us you’re pregnant?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I thought he batted in the two hole.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Hey-oh!
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
That’s awesome, Mish.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Boring commute home. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’m not, but someone is (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/tim-mccarver-to-retire.html
dmick89Quote Reply
As I watched this player I am in need of sports
Asansörlü Taşımacılık MersinQuote Reply