The Cubs close out this homestand with a four game set against the Nationals, including a scheduled doubleheader on Saturday and a day off on Sunday. The off-day is to accommodate the city’s Pride Parade, which brings a ton of people into the greater Lakeview area. No word on whether Wrigleyville residents are shocked to discover that this is happening. There’s money just sitting there on the ground waiting to be picked up for anyone who wants to set up a www.isthereachicagoprideparadetoday.com site.
It’s a smart gesture by the Cubs to the community, but another WTF moment for MLB’s schedule makers. In an echo of the Cubs ONLY MARQUEE GAME OF THE YEAR for the 100th anniversary, people knew that this day would be a special case. So why the hell are the Cubs even in town this weekend? I’m still more annoyed about the Cubs playing a franchise with next to no history for their big milestone game, but this is still pretty lame. Maybe we’ll at least see a lot of Ernie Banks / “Let’s Play Two” references this weekend.
Team Overviews
NL Rank in parens
Cubs
- wRC+: 80 (14th)
- BSR: 1.3 (7th)
- SP FIP-: 85 (1st)
- RP FIP-: 94 (7th)
- UZR: 2.6 (8th)
- DRS: -8 (14th)
- fWAR leader: Anthony Rizzo (2.8)
- Run differential: -13
Nats
- wRC+: 91 (8th)
- BSR: 6.3 (1st)
- SP FIP-: 88 (2nd)
- RP FIP-: 79 (1st)
- UZR: -7.4 (11th)
- DRS: 10 (8th)
- fWAR leader: Anthony Rendon (2.7)
- Run differential: +38
Oblivious that I am, I had no idea Rendon was having such a big year. He’s taken the opportunity offered by Zimmerman’s injury and capitalized on it big time. He has a .273/.335/.474 line on the year, for a .352 wOBA at third base. Not too shabby. The Nats offense gets the job done, but it’s obviously their pitching that has them atop the NL East. I’m a little surprised that they’re not at or near the top in K%, but just as importantly they’re the best in the NL in preventing free passes. Somehow the Cubs are dodging Stephen Strasburg this week.
Pitching Matchups
ERA, xFIP, projected FIP listed for each pitcher.
Thursday: Doug Fister, RHP (2.65, 3.73, 3.39) vs Travis Wood, LHP (4.55, 4.53, 4.19), 7:05 PM CT
Fister is a ground ball machine who throws a lot of strikes. In nine starts this year he’s walked a grand total of SIX batters. His GB rate is down a bit this year, and he’s benefited from his defense turning a lot more of those grounders into outs than expected. Fister came to the Nats before the 2013 season in a baffling trade that sent a utility guy, a LOOGY, and their #7 prospect to the Tigers in return for arguably one of the top 20 pitchers in the game.
Wood’s peripherals aren’t far off from last year’s fantastic season, but he’s had a lot less luck with balls in play and thus a 4.55 ERA. His average looking .293 BABIP doesn’t look that alarming until you consider that his career mark is somewhere around .265. After a strong eight inning outing against the Phils, he was unable to make it out of the fifth inning against their cross-state rivals. I’m not too worried about Wood, and I’m still feeling quite good about that Marshall trade.
Friday: Tanner Roark, RHP (2.79, 3.84, 4.05) vs Jason Hammel, RHP (2.99, 3.29, 3.76), 3:05 PM CT
We’re at the stage of the season where all we’re hoping out of a Hammel start is that he doesn’t get injured. He’s done what he needs to do to get a nontrivial trade piece back at the deadline. He held the Pirates to two runs in seven innings in his last outing, and has only once walked more than two batters in a start this season.
Roark has made 15 starts for the Nats and has been quietly great. Like Fister his game plan seems to be to throw a lot of strikes and get the ball on the ground. He’s due for the regression fairy but even after that happens the Nats made a good choice to make him a regular. The Nats acquired him from the Rangers in 2010 for the ghost of Cristian Guzman.
Saturday, game 1: Gio Gonzalez, LHP (4.38, 3.92, 3.38) vs Dallas Beeler, RHP (4.03, 3.87, 4.98), 12:05 PM CT
This is Beeler’s MLB debut, so I listed his 2014 minor league ERA and FIP. Enjoy your cup of coffee, kid. He’s already got his TJS out of the way, and missed a big chunk of last year to a torn finger ligament. His ceiling seems to be a fourth starter type, so we might be seeing more of him for the next few years. Maybe he’s the next Chris Rusin!
Gonzalez has always been a high strikeout, high walk pitcher and this year’s results are looking a lot more like the relatively wild Gio from his time with Oakland than the Cy Young contender he’s been since moving to the NL. He’s had some bad luck with sequencing this year, but he has to worry about that rising walk rate as well. He hasn’t had a start all season without at least one walk.
Saturday, game 2: Jordan Zimmermann, RHP (2.95, 3.12, 3.27) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (2.53, 3.22, 3.33), 6:15 PM CT
Now this should be a fun matchup. Zimmermann has been on a roll of late, striking out 27 batters over his four previous starts including a 12 K shutout against the Padres. Expect to see lots and lots of lively fastballs in this game.
Shark seems like he’s been scuffling a bit in has past few starts, but the numbers don’t seem much different than those at the beginning of the year. He’s posting a career-low 2.71 BB/9, and has posted 30 strikeouts in his last four starts (take that, Zimmermann!). This could be either a very quick game if someone manages to eke out a run, or a very long one if we have to wait until we run out of bullpen pitchers.