The Brewers have cooled off a bit relative to their hot start to the season, ‘merely’ going .500 over their last 10 games. They’re down a few offensive weapons, with Aramis Rodrigo on the DL due to a hamstring injury and Carlos Gomez serving his suspension from last month’s brawl to take a few days to recover from some back problems. The Cubs are coming off a decent, if losing, series against the suddenly mortal Cardinals. It sure was nice seeing them score a billion runs for once.
The last series between the teams resulted in this:
Team Overviews
Cubs
- wRC+: 81 (14th)
- BSR: 0.6 (6th)
- SP FIP-: 84 (1st)
- RP FIP-: 106 (11th)
- UZR: 3.7 (8th)
- DRS: 17 (5th)
Brewers
- wRC+: 93 (7th)
- BSR: 1.0 (5th)
- SP FIP-: 103 (7th)
- RP FIP-: 85 (5th)
- UZR: 6.9 (5th)
- DRS: 14 (7th)
News, notes, injuries, blood oaths, etc.
Rizzo dropped two bunts against the shift yesterday, which was great to see. The Cardinals stopped shifting after he did it twice. Money quote for today’s game (via CSN):
“If I bunt, I’d bunt it right back to Garza,”
Be prepared for some more meaningless beanballs, a storied Cardinals tradition, following Yadier Molina yapping about a few pitches that got away from Cubs pitchers. Is there a team with thinner skins?
Carlos Gomez is slated to miss today’s game due to suspension/bad back, but should be back for the last two. The Brewers missing two of their top three hitters will make it extra frustrating for Shark when he loses 1-0 yet again.
Speaking of Carlos Gomez…
Probable Pitchers
ERA, current xFIP, projected FIP listed for each
Friday: Kyle Lohse, RHP (2.75, 3.51, 4.00) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (1.45, 3.50, 3.40), 1:20 PM CT
Lohse had a solidly unspectacular year with the Brewers last year, posting his typical low strikeout rate and microscopic walk rate. He signed at the end of spring training, a victim of the collusion-ish stigma of a qualifying offer, so it probably took him a few starts to get ready out of the gate. Not so much this year – he’s seen a nice uptick of strikeouts and seems to have a good handle on his slider. He tossed a quality start in his last outing, allowing a HR to the shell of Mark Teixeira.
Shark has had hilariously low run support this year, drawn into even more stark relief by the 17 run explosion for Travis Wood last week. There’s not much else he can do besides hit a few home runs himself. I guess he just doesn’t have The Will To Win.
Saturday: Matt Garza, RHP (4.98, 4.07, 3.71) vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (4.56, 4.02, 3.70), 1:20 PM CT
It’s hard to know what’s going on with Jackson this year. His FIP is still great, but he has a 28% LD rate. According to pfx, he’s scrapped his cutter this year, and has been throwing a lot more four-seamers. He’s thrown more strikes in general this year than usual, which could maybe account for the more solid contact.
Garza’s sour grapes over his time with the Cubs might reflect his performance with the Brewers this year. Though it’s kind of a moot point now, because he’s already been paid. He’s had a hard time finding the plate this year, and the jump in GB% he had with the Cubs has entirely disappeared. His AL East Experience led to him getting chased by the Yankees after five innings in his last start.
Sunday: Wily Peralta, RHP (2.05, 3.36, 4.29) vs Travis Wood, LHP (4.91, 3.54, 4.09), 1:20 PM CT
Sportswriters everywhere are nodding their heads in approval at Travis Wood’s ability to pitch to the score. He’s had a couple rough starts following his great start to the season, including five run’s in last week’s blowout win, eight runs to the White Sox, and another five runs in his last outing against the Brew Crew. His BABIP has over-regressed all the way to .331, much higher than the last two years’ .246.
Peralta seems to have made A Leap in his eight starts this year, reducing his previously unremarkable walk rate to 1.71 BB/9. He’s had some luck with sequencing with those runners who do get on base, and a .263 BABIP is low for a ground ball pitcher, but credit to him. His profile reminds me a bit of a young Carlos Zambrano, with better control and a little less strikeouts.