The Cubs have made a strong push for the second spot in next year's draft with a 4-17 record in the month of August. The Rockies are remembering their 2007 team by going 13-9 over that same span, and are coming off a four game sweep of the Mets on the road. You Never Know. The Rockies are one of only five NL teams that have failed to sweep the Cubs this year. The Braves and Nationals still have a chance to add themselves to the list, but the Cubs will have to wait till next year to get this achievement in a single season.
Team Overviews
| Rockies | Cubs | |
| wRC+ | 96 (6th) | 77 (16th) |
| BSR | 6.7 (3rd) | -1.9 (9th) |
| UZR | -37.1 (16th) | 18.4 (2nd) |
| DRS | -70 (16th) | 14 (4th) |
| SP FIP- | 120 (15th) | 105 (11th) |
| RP FIP- | 91 (4th) | 112 (16th) |
It's pretty clear where the Rockies problems lie this year. Rockies pitchers are doing poorly on DIPS, and when the ball is put into play the defense can't do anything with it. It's not just a park factor thing – the stats above all include park effects, and if you go to xFIP- instead of FIP- Rockies starters are the worst in the NL.
The Cubs bullpen maintains its narrow edge against the Cardinals and Astros as the worst pen in the majors, and if you look at xFIP the Cubs blow away all competitors in terribleness This is a year! It's also a bummer to see the Cubs previously excellent team baserunning numbers sliding below average for the year.
Position Players, injuries
It's been a while since the Cubs played the Rockies, and I couldn't name many players on their team other than their outfield of Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Tyler Colvin. The outfielders have been the biggest contributers by far, posting 70.1 of the team's 56.3 wRAA alone. I'm too lazy to remove the pitchers PAs from that total but some notable negative position player contributions have come from DJ LeMaiheu, who no one has been particularly missing, Marco Scutaro, Jonathan Herrera, and Ramon Hernandez. Defensively, the metrics suggest that Fowler and Gonzalez have been giving runs right back to the other team, while Colvin has been merely below average. To be fair, that's a pretty big outfield to patrol.
Fowler suffered a minor knee sprain on Wednesday and could miss a few games. The other notable Rockie that I somehow forgot was star SS Troy Tulowitski, who went down in late May with a groin injury and has had a slow road coming back. He starts a rehab assignment today and could be back in a week or so. Long-time Rockie Todd Helton had season ending hip surgery earlier this month and is donezo for the year. His would-be replacement, Jason Giambi, has been out since late July with some sort of virus. Starter Jorge De La Rosa had TJS last year but has had a rocky recovery, being shut down on a few occasions but MRIs have shown no structural damage. He probably won't pitch for the team this year. Jonathan Sanchez is on the DL with biceps tendinitis/sucking.
Probable Pitchers
Friday: Drew Pomeranz, LHP (4.87, 4.60, 4.42, 4.66) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (4.17, 3.75, 3.52, 4.03), 1:20 PM CT
Pomeranz went to the Rockies in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal. He's 24 so there's lots of time to grow, and he hasn't been too awful in his 14 starts this year. He's had trouble with walks (4.31 BB/9) but gets grounders and strikeouts which is what you need at Coors, at least when you have a competent defense behind you.
Samardzija struggled a bit in Cincy, giving up three homers in five innings while striking out five, but at least he did not walk anyone. He's continued his pace of striking out a better per inning, and it's still crazy to see that he's set a career best walk rate this year despite primarily pitching out of the pen in the past.
Saturday: Alex White, RHP (5.55, 4.96, 4.48, 5.29) vs Brooks Raley, LHP (7.63, 6.36, 5.07, 5.43), 12:05 PM CT
White was another piece of the Ubaldo deal, and was a much smaller one than Pomeranz. He's put up a 55.8% GB rate with the Rockies, but has given up a lot of home runs when batters get some air under the ball. According to fangraphs pfx he throws mostly sinkers and sliders.
Raley was bombed by the Padres in his first start, and was meh to bad in his next two. Expect an average of the three for this one.
Sunday: Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (6.16, 6.16, 4.87, 4.13) vs Chris Volstad, RHP (6.88, 4.37, 4.37, 4.83), 1:20 PM CT
Chacin was hurt for most of the year, and this is his second start back. He allowed one run in six innings to the Mets in his last start, only striking out two. He issues a lot of free passes, but has managed to avoid trouble by getting lots of grounders and avoiding home runs. That hasn't worked out so well for him this year however, as he's given up seven homers in only six starts.
Comments
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
His places are the height of class MO. He’ll tell you himself at every opportunity
BerseliusQuote Reply
I know what FIP is but what’s xFIP? What does that tell that FIP doesn’t?
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker wrote:
Expected FIP. It normalizes home run rate for said pitcher to league average.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
@ jtsunami:
Ah, I see. Thanks.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ jtsunami:
It also factors in the pitcher’s pitch type percentages, so pitchers that give up a lot of fly balls have their numbers adjusted more
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/xfip/
BerseliusQuote Reply
Enrico, yeah, multiple sources. And last time I was in town, I was one of the sources. Even the mussels were subpar.
I waited for Frontera the times I’ve gone, I like the food that much.
Also, Hopleaf has maybe the most expansive beer list, but it’s not the best. Here’s how I’d rank beer lists in terms of quality and rarity:
1.) The Publican
2.) Bad Apple
3.) Globe Pub (ask about special cask draughts, bottle list is deep and well curated)
4.) Kuma’s Korner
5.) Edgewater Lounge
6.) The Map Room
7.) Fireside Inn (maybe the best list of American micros/crafts in the city)
8.) Hopleaf
9.) The Local Option
10.) Maria’s Package Goods
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
So then is xFIP the better stat to use?
MuckerQuote Reply
Looking at LaMahieu’s numbers, I’m starting to think thaat the Stewart trade was a win for the Cubs. Sure, Colvin has been far better than Stewart, but if DJ were still here we’d be forced to listen to pleas to play him rather than letting Barney build up his off-season trade bona fides or at least play very good D. Zero is still better than -2.
SVBQuote Reply
Nevermind B, that fangraphs article you posted pretty much answered all the other questions I had. (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
@ SVB:
And that’s before you get a look at Colvin’s peripherals and realize his success is likely to be unsustainable.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012-articles/august/attendance-shaming-in-chicago-the-myth-of-fan-disloyalty-on-the-southside.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
Boy this is a lot of fun: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/mlb_trout_for_mvp_it_might_depend_on_angels_record#When:15:43:04Z
With Bonus Phil Rogers!
MishQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
This. White Sox fans have not been going for a while now, and I think it has a lot to do with the way the product is being sold to them, i.e. as a bitter pill they must swallow and celebrate.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Phil Rogers should be barred from ever writing about baseball again.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Same with us (spending money on good food). Well, before we had the youngling, that was true. Too bad there’s only one or two such restaurants in C-U that local fair. If anyone is in this town ever, Escobar’s is the only restaurant here. The one thing I miss most about Chicago is the food.
joshQuote Reply
Now I’m hungry as a motherfucker.
joshQuote Reply
Pierzynski: 3.5 fWAR, 2.3 rWAR
Trout: 7.7 fWar, 8.9 rWAR
Phil Rogers should be fired.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mish:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
You can only provide value to your team if your team makes the playoffs. What’s unclear about that?
simple logic
joshQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
You’re forgetting Pierzynski’s massive lead in aWAR, those frameworks don’t take it into account for some reason.
BerseliusQuote Reply
That’s because they haven’t played the Cubs yet…but I see what you did there.
@ Berselius:
a = asshole?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Just like the Cubs’ starting pitchers: They ride each other.
Either that or GMOs, which might explain MO’s reaction to Juan Pierre.
SVBQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
He’s worth at least 6 extra assholes above replacement.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3YElLVMjEs
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Did you know that Mars has a sun?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
AJ has all the aWAR. He is the festering brown pucker of the universe.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Of course. How else would the Martians see their XP1000 Space Modulators?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Miles has some meaty stuff from Sveum here: http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/7119
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I love those cartoons.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’ve noticed that in the first inning F7 usually throws nothing but fastballs for the first ten pitches or so before changing things up. Is this part of the game plan or just something they do to help him get comfortable?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Shorter Sveum:
uncle daveQuote Reply
whomever asked about the bar/restaurant Sixteen in the Trump Tower – it’s expensive (think $20 per cocktail), but the view is spectacular. Get a drink, go out on the patio, then go someplace else.
Hopleaf was under construction for the last several months as they expanded into the building next door. Their kitchen suffered as a result, but that’s all over now and the food seems to be back up to par.
And I’d echo MO’s list of places for good beer (though not in that order), and I’d add The Fountainhead (Damen/Montrose), North Down Cafe (Lincoln/Belmont) and Half Acre Brewery is opening a tap room soon (Lincoln/Montrose). If you don’t mind driving a bit, Three Floyd’s is a 30 min. drive away in Indiana, and Flossmoor Station brewery isn’t far either and they both have decent food (and some awesome beer).
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
(dying laughing) pretty much
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ SVB:
The Stewart trade is a pretty big loss for the Cubs. There’s really no other way to look at it in my opinion. Colvin’s fWAR is 1.9 while Stewart’s is 0.1. Stewart was making more than $2 million while Colvin made league minimum. Colvin will again make league minimum next season and then be arb eligible for 3 years. Stewart will be DFA’d after the season and we’ll never see him again. LeMahieu has been worth .4 fWAR and he has 2 full years of league minimum ahead of him. Not a bad trade at the time, but the Cubs got fucked in this trade. The Cubs paid DeJesus $5 million per year over 2 years for less production than Tyler Colvin has provided for league minimum.
Surplus value
Ian Stewart: -$1.74 million. (1 fWAR, 0.5 million $WAR, salary $2.24 million)
Tyler Colvin: $9.3 million (1.9 fWAR, $9.8 million $WAR, $0.5 million salary)
DJ LeMahieu: $1.8 milion (0.4 fWAR, $2 million $WAR, $.2 million salary)
Total surplus value for the Rockies so far: $11.1 million
Total surplus value for the Cubs so far: -$1.74 million
Considering the salaries and service time it’s more than likely that will grow quite a bit in the years to come.
The Cubs took a chance and lost. They didn’t lose a great player so it’s no big deal, but it certainly wasn’t a good trade. It won’t be the worst trade this front office makes.
mb21Quote Reply
Why the hell is Vitters batting 2nd? Does he look like a 2 hitter or something? I don’t get it.
mb21Quote Reply
Samardzija must be working on another pitch. I’m sure that’s the excuse this time.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I think Sveum is just trolling us now.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Because WTF.
joshQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
ugh. one of my biggest pet peeves is the rising tide against gmos. i don’t want to straw-man your views here, MO, but it seems like with greater frequency i’m encountering the opinion that organic foods are somehow “natural,” which couldn’t be further from the truth.
the fact is that almost without exception, the foods we eat (“organic” or otherwise) are genetically modified beyond recognition, and this modification has been happening for on the order of ten thousand years. all of our crops are grotesque. sometimes this is an absolute necessity (ie modern wheat is dependent on the evolutionarily destructive strategy of seeds remaining attached to the ear), but most of the time it has been for size, nutritional content, and taste.
we are better at genetic modification than at any time in history, and there are certainly issues to be considered in implementing technology, but on the whole, genetic modification of crops may be the single greatest achievement of human history. stories like this one just sicken me.
real “natural” foods (ie closest wild type relatives)
corn
lettuce
/should have been a fanpost
GWQuote Reply
@ mb21:
That four-seamer is just so fucking hittable, and he throws the thing belt high.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ GW:
I know what you mean, GW. Animal and plant husbandry has been the backbone of agriculture for thousands of years. I don’t really have as much beef with the genetic part except for the ways that the manufacturers fuck with the farmers, making sure to make seeds that cannot be used more than once like most corn strains these days. I have much more of a problem with monoculture farming and consequences of excessive fertilization, pesticides, etc that are amplified by them,
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GW:
I’m talking about the shit that’s going on at Monsanto. I hold no pretenses about organic foods.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Exactly this. Well put, b.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ GW:
I think it’s interesting that people are unaware how completely humanity has altered the landscape of the Earth. I’m not really opposed to GMO (I heard they’re trying to give tomatoes their flavor back and I am FOR that). I think there is a small segment of GMO where scientists are splicing into the genome that may warrant more research, though. I mean, cross-breeding varieties of grass doesn’t really compare to gene splicing. That said, I’m all for GMO if it can be used to help alleviate world hunger problems and suchlike.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, having worked with dudes who investigate water pollution, monoculture farming is probably the most destructive practice humanity has yet devised. Seriously, corn is ruining us.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
The problem with tomato flavor is that they grow them in shitty soil and pick them way too early, allowing them to ripen on the trucks.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ josh:
it’s not just cross breeding. farmers in history use to expose their seeds to as much sunlight as possible to induce mutations.
GWQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Well, so I was reading this article where a researcher discovered a gene responsible for acidity in tomatoes and did some genetic research to determine that when farmers were cross-breeding to get a more uniformly red tomato, they inadvertently also turned this gene off, making tomatoes less acidic and less flavorful, so the fault may not entirely be truck farming. That’s why heirlooms still have flavor, because they weren’t bred for color.
joshQuote Reply
@ GW:
I didn’t know that. That’s kind of cool. But still, they let the seed germinate and then cross breed for desireable traits after that, I’m guessing.
I’m not really an alarmist, though some of the big food makers are doing some super shady bullshit.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
it’s not that simple. farmers have selected for genes that induce uniform ripening to allow for preservation of their crops en route to distribution.
by all means, support the tomatoes you think taste the best, this will help make things better. but the underlying component in getting to where we are today is people wanting cheap tomatoes
GWQuote Reply
@ josh:
and the benefit is that a few billion people have to worry a lot less about obtaining sufficient calories to support themselves. i’m not trying to be big-ag apologist here, but i don’t think people realize how amazing that is in the course of human history.
GWQuote Reply
@ josh:
i linked to a blog post on that a couple of months ago
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2012/06/tomatoes/
GWQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Because we have to.
MishQuote Reply
@ GW:
So, like, I write science fiction and the thing that bugs me about a lot of it is the “DON’T TAMPER WITH MOTHER NATURE!” aspect. I think the research has got to be there, but that if it really can help alleviate famine, then I think it’s a win.
But growing nothing but corn is really hurting the country and our water supply. It’s a real problem. Maybe genetic modification can help with that, I don’t now, but it’s a problem.
joshQuote Reply
@ GW:
Yeah, there you go.
I feel like we’ve all had this discussion before, actually.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Well, corn and soybeans. Corn just gets all the press
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Trudat. Wheat’s an asshole too.
joshQuote Reply
We re-branded to an agriculture blog so slowly that I didn’t even notice.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ josh:
death to the “ethanol lobby.”
(and farm subsidies)
GWQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
We totally missed the chance to hype it.
mb21Quote Reply
josh wrote:
*inserts trading brick for wheat joke*
BerseliusQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Are the Cubs getting no-hit? That’s spectacular.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
We were all driven insane by that Friday song, probably.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Pick a side, Schrodinger, we’re at war
Stephen ColbertQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Fonzie ruins everything.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
False.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Nerdtastic.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Double false.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Correct.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I started this thread in the forum, but figured I’d mention it here too. Any interest in (re)starting a OV fantasy football league? I can’t remember who organized it last year.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Looks like Shark settled in after a rocky start to the game
BerseliusQuote Reply
Guest: “Back in my day they didn’t do all that trading nonsense”
/Get off my lawn!
joshQuote Reply
For some reason Joe Mather is not a very good leadoff hitter.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
VITTERS WALKED
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
He must not have to be.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
He stopped experimenting with a new pitch.
mb21Quote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I like that GW is an eggplant.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
You guys are forgetting about Hops and the genetic stuff that has been done with it. Wouldn’t have all those tasty IPA’s without some of it.
pinetarQuote Reply
Koyie Hill —> Rangers
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I basically picked vegetable pictures where they had decent aesthetic quality and went for onoes that weren’t all green. GW was either going to be an eggplant or rhubarb.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I believe you chose wisely. Eggplant is a good veggie.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
I made myself broccoli because it’s one of the few veggies I actually like and somebody had to be something green.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
BJax —> 2 or 3 true outcomes
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Broccoli is good. I’ve been digging broccolini. I fucking love vegetables.
joshQuote Reply
I hope Josh thinks peas are hot… er…. delicious.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Jooooooooooooooooooooooooooooe Matherrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…
*Hope Monster dance’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Peas are all right. I like other veggies better.
joshQuote Reply
Now we’re debating the merits of different vegetables? Man, the Cubs really do suck. Can’t we at least go back to debating whether swimsuit models are objectively hot?
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
Ugh, what the shit happened there?
joshQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I love it too, but I love most vegetables. Would be hard to be mostly be a vegetarian if I didn’t. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
Snow peas are where it’s at.
joshQuote Reply
CUBS WIN!!
CUBS WIN!!
Aisle424Quote Reply
… I forgot what we were talking about.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Cubs win. I guess. What’s their record at Wrigley? Home games haven’t been as bad, it seems like.
joshQuote Reply
Cubs at home: 31-28
On the road: 17-48
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ josh:
They’re now 31-28 at home.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
GW has done the heavy lifting on GMOs here and he’s done a good job.
Let me add a few cents….
If the alternative is organic, we’ll never be able to feed 10 billion people, even if the distribution was vastly improved. We’d have to plow under so much other forest/prairie/suburb that the consequences of this land use change would balance out any environmental benefit of less chemical use, while likely exacerbating hunger.
Much of the world gets too much of its caloric intake from low value starches. GMOs are bringing some exciting possibilities to improving these crops by including genes that boost vitamin and protein production, insert vaccines to tropical diseases, etc. For example, the Gates Foundation is funding some cool work on cassava, where protein content is being boosted while cyanide production from cassava (a by-product of cooking it) is reduced. So it’s safer and more nutritious. The nice thing is that cassava is almost always reproduced by cuttings, so the seed issue that Berselius mentioned (I agree with that criticism, by the way) is moot.
IMO, we should be increasing intensive agriculture. The alternative is plowing up or grazing marginal lands that mostly serve as refuges for what biodiversity we have left. For example, intensive soy production uses far less land for the same caloric production for animal feed (i.e. beef food) than grazing herds would use. Our best farm land is being farmed now. We should continue to focus on ways to make it more productive so that we aren’t plowing up marginal lands like we were 80-120 years ago. Of course, we should do that smartly, using multicrops and targeting pesticide and fertilizer use. Even non-GMO conventional ag overfertilizes by at least 20% as “insurance application.” GMOs that provide drought resistance allow water conservation and reduce fertilizer needs, for example.
That said, I remain concerned about protecting the organic niche markets, because they produce economically valuable food, and minimizing the possibility of super weeds. So agribusiness should be more tightly regulated. Also, I think we should rethink what is patentable within genomes. Discovering that a gene does something should not be patentable, though it could be licensable maybe.
Oh, and I wouldn’t lose any sleep if all ethanol subsidies disappeared tomorrow.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
I’m going to go all Wild Ass Guess here, but I would bet that getting rid of sugar subsidies/tariffs would have a bigger impact on corn production than ethanol
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Interesting points. I know farmers don’t like it, but ethanol sucks.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
We’re over .500 at home!!
joshQuote Reply
This would be pretty crazy:
The Red Sox and Dodgers are closing in on a trade that would send Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto to Los Angeles, Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com reports (on Twitter). Hurdles remain, but the sides continue working toward a deal.
joshQuote Reply
Cubs legend Chad Tracy just got an extension from the Nationals
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Flabbergasting.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
(dying laughing). I don’t even know what the Dodgers offer for this. How is John Lackey not in that deal?
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
JUST TAKE THEM! GAH!
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Is Lackey still on the DL? Perhaps that is why.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Crawford did just have TJS this week
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Then the Dodgers have seriously gone mad.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Now, back to baseball….
Yeah MB, I understand the numbers here and looking only at the direct components of the trade, I agree completely. Your review of the statistical/production values of the moves the Cubs made was great.
My point, only partly tongue in cheek, was to look at the trade more in context of the bigger picture–trying to bring in some of the harder-to-numerate intangibles. I know you aren’t so interested in these, because it’s based on conjecture.
So let’s imagine the Cubs kept DJ LaMahieu and he took 25% of Barney’s playing time. The argument for that would go like this: Barney isn’t a great hitter, DJ is younger, let’s see what he can do. Barney’s got a 4.7 WAR according to BRef. So that would reduce Barney’s WAR by about 1.2, right? (0.25*4.7) With BRef numbers, the trade currently stands at Cubs -0.1 (Stewart), Rox 2.0 (Colvin 1.4, DJ 0.6).
If we hadn’t made the trade, we’d have at 2nd base: DJ 0.6, Barney 3.5, deWitt = 3.8 with the trade we have Barney/Cardenas/deWitt = 4.5. I assume we’d have been stuck with deWitt at the start of the season no matter what. Plus, Barney has established himself as a better-than-replacement everyday player. Not a great player, but >replacement. That either allows to Cubs to focus on other positions to improve for the next 2 years, or gives them something to trade. It’s unclear if that would have been the case had leMahieu been eating into Barney’s PT. Also not clear is if there would have been a constant “controversy” about who should play that would have hovered over the Cubs all year, and/or if that would have affected their performance.
I’m not sure how to place Colvin in context. If we had kept him, would he and LaHair have platooned in RF? Would Colvin have been sent down? Or LaHair? My bet is Colvin would have been sent down because he didn’t hit his streak until after Rizzo came up, while LaHair was going pretty good at that point. So we’d basically have gotten nothing out of Colvin.
Looking straight player-for-player, the Cubs gambled that Stewart would be healthy and return to his previously better production. The Cubs lost. There is no doubt about that. But in context, particularly in a losing season like this one, the losses may not be as bad. I don’t really remember how to compute the $WAR figures, though I’m pretty sure I could find that from an old post of yours. Maybe the additional Barney value gives the Cubs something like a +$150,000 surplus value, instead of -1,740,000.
Anyway, I’m not arguing the trade is a net loss to the Cubs, just that the balance sheet may not be as negative.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Gee, that didn’t seem so long in the comment box. Sorry guys.
SVBQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’m just amazed that they’re doing all this through the waiver wire.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Next time please consult Section 189c of Article 4.1 of the Post About Posting rev 2 (2012).
GBTSQuote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Posting with pants on is prohibited? How is that relevant here?
MishQuote Reply
Damn, they’re reviewing medicals now. This is unbelievable.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ josh:
The Dodgers are nuts.
mb21Quote Reply
Red Sox ——> erased nearly all of Theo’s bad contracts in one trade (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Who the hell was going to claim Gonzalez, Beckett or Crawford?
mb21Quote Reply
@ SVB:
I’m guessing LeMahieu would have taken little to none of Barney’s playing time. Rather than seeing Valbeuna at 3rd base we’d probably have seen LeMahieu.
mb21Quote Reply
LIve feed of Dodger PC on impending trade:
Think Blue!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Fuck you, internet, with you non-hot-linking images. The internet sucks now. Fuck this.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
i love rhubarb, btw
GWQuote Reply
webster going to the bosox
GWQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
(dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/inflexible_strasburg_plan/
mb21Quote Reply
@ GW:
They might yank him back if Red Sox let any of the players involved know they were going to be traded.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
The reason Vitters is batting second is the same reason Lou had Colvin leading off.
SK on a flip phoneQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Yeah, MB you might be right. My guess is that LeMahieu would have been playing more in the 1st half and Cardenas wouldn’t have been up at all. Then maybe shifted to 3rd went Stewart went on DL, but that’s when Valbuena came up.
I really don’t disagree with any of your analysis and of course my comments are all based on conjecture. I suppose that just reinforces that the only really objective way to analyze a trade is based on the components, as you’ve done. But that limits the fun, no? Where’s the fun in not second guessing based on conjecture? After all, rationalizations are more important than sex. At least, that’s what Jeff Goldblum told me.
SVBQuote Reply
LET’S GO BEARS.
/too excited
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I don’t understand how this Dodgers/Red Sox trade happens. The Red Sox players have cleared waivers or been claimed by the Dodgers, but the Dodgers players have to clear still. What keeps the Giants, Pirates, Braves, etc. from claiming de la Rosa, Sands, etc. to scuttle the trade. As long as they stay away from Loney they don’t incur much $$ hit. If the Dodgers sub some other player, they just claim him too.
If a player is on the 40-man roster, they have to clear waivers right? Not just the active roster?
SVBQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gxv7n-Xub0w
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Apple ————-> more than a billion dollars richer
Samsung ———> more than a billion dollars poorer
mb21Quote Reply
@ SVB:
The reason I don’t think Barney’s playing time would have been affects is because Theo and Hoyer mentioned several times how the middle infield was solidified with Castro and Barney. Who knows, but I’d like to think this front office is smart enough to realize that Barney >>>> LeMahieu. I mean, if they can’t figure that out, this team is in a lot of trouble. Jim Hendry figured it out.
mb21Quote Reply
Dan Dierdorf sounds drunk off his ass.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
I think he’d be better if he was drunk off his ass. He is a horrbile, horrible announcer / analyst.
cwolfQuote Reply
@ cwolf:
He’s audibly slurring. Maybe it’s the CTE?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Maybe. He always seemed to have a weird pronunciation / diction thing to me. Whatever it is, his content has always been awful. To me, it’s like listening to Brenly doing Cub games – stating the obvious as profound and very little insight.
cwolfQuote Reply
Beautiful TD play there.
cwolfQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
(dying laughing). I think you’re right about DD being shitfaced – he’s drunk and bad!
cwolfQuote Reply
So fellow beerfags here, have you ever found a Belgian IPA worth drinking? Every one I’ve had is never BAD, I’m just upset I made any effort to buy or drink it.
akabariQuote Reply
Adrian Beltre ———–> Cycle
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Over the last 3 games, he has 9 hits and 5 homers (and 11 hits over the last 4 games).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ akabari:
If you’re talking about these hybrid things like Stone makes, then, no. They uniformly suck. But if you’re talking about IPA-style beers from Belgium, or American beers made in the correct style, then yes, several. Try LaChouffe’s Houblen Chouffe Dobbelen IPA, Duvel’s Tripel Hop and 3 Floyds’ Live A Rich Life.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
That’s pretty hot.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Yeah I’m MOSTLY talking about the weird hybrids. The only IPA from Belgium I’ve had was Piraat and it was…alright. But I’ll give one if the ones you listed a shot too.
I’ve been on a huge sour kick lately, and being in the Midwest sucks for that (dying laughing)
akabariQuote Reply
@ akabari:
Jolly Pumpkin, dude! It’s right in Michigan making the best American sours apart from Supplication and Vald!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
akabari wrote:
Ommegang (I guess technically Duvel) makes a pretty good Belgian IPA, and I say this someone who is not an IPA fan. But if you can get that you can get Hennepin too, so why would you (dying laughing). I’ve only tried it from the Ommegang sampler cases that I found at Costco a year or so ago and haven’t seen since.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Isn’t 3 Floyd’s Gumballhead technically a Belgian IPA? I can’t remember. I remember being surprised at whatever it was classified as.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
No Gumballhead is an American Pale made with wheat and Hefe yeast
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Dunn homered twice and struck out twice. He’s now up to 38 and 180 (!!!).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I want 50 HR and 200k from him so bad I can taste it.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Ah, that’s right. I know beer classification like I know eastern philosophy
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Oh no no no. I agree ENTIRELY. Pro due Calabaza is my favorite beer ever. Finding it near me in Chicago is somehow hard though? Went to Binnys and they didn’t even have La Roja.
akabariQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He’ll sail past the 200 K mark (his previous career high is 199, but he’ll trounce that). 50 will be tough, but he’s currently right on pace for that.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ akabari:
I’d just ask Binny’s if they can order it. Me and a buddy used to ask the Binny’s we went to to for stuff, and they were usually pretty good about trying to get a few bottles in as long as they knew we’d buy them.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
In this morning’s restaurant review thread, we established that MO has eaten everywhere in Chicago. The corollary, of course, is that he’s also had everything to drink while he’s been eating!
(dying laughing)
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
What’s a good meal without a good drink? (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Try the Binny’s in Skokie on Dempster. They almost always have La Roja, otherwise, I can tell you a couple of my “secret” spots for JP beers.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Robothal on LAD-BOS blockbuster: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Boston-Red-Sox-Los-Angeles-Dodgers-blockbuster-trade-Adrian-Gonzalez-Josh-Beckett-Carl-Crawford-082412
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Speaking of which: Templeton Rye Whiskey. FANTASTIC, and now also available at Binny’s (you lucky dogs!). Small batch bourbon from Iowa.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Yeah, I’ve only had that once, but it was delicious. Can’t get it out here, sadly.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
FG on LAD-BOS blockbuster: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/talent-makes-trade-more-than-a-dump-for-red-sox/
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Binny’s will ship it, if that’s allowed “out there.”
SVBQuote Reply
Drinking Leffe Blond. DIGGING IT.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’m surprised all those guys cleared waivers.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Found a new four pack of Hennepin last time I was at the Friar Tuck here. Awesome. I tried Ommegang’s Rare Vos because it had one of those cards that was like “99/100!” It wasn’t bad, but I wished I’d gotten the Hennepin.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
And that’s an entry-level Belgian blonde! So good, and there are even better ones. Belgians are special beers.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
On the Dodgers side that is.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
We don’t have independent liquor stores. State controls sale of hard liquor
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Yeah, I was at the grocery store, so it was down to that or New Belgium Abbey for Belgians. I’ve had Abbey before, so I went with this.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Or do only MLB roster players need to pass through waivers and prospects can just be traded at will?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Bears’ OL are the Cubs of the NFL
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ josh:
Good choice. The Leffe Brune is also awesome.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ SVB:
@ Rice Cube:
I’d like an answer to that question too.
SVBQuote Reply
Aramis just added to his NL lead in doubles (41). Talk about a numbers gatherer.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I think it’s just the 40-man roster that has to clear waivers.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Bears won I see. Tell them not to get used to that.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Well, that helps. If that’s the case then nobody is going to try to block the trade by just claiming James Loney (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
But de la Rosa and deJesus (at least) are on the 40-man too.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Are they? I hadn’t paid attention. Let them be claimed! To hell with LA!
/Giants fan’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
from JC Bradbury on Twitter:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
So is Sands, but they are in the minors. That’s why I can’t figure how this trade works. Anyone could claim the Dodgers players at little expense…
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Perhaps Sabean is waiting for the Dodgers and Sawx to completely waste their time before he steps in and says “Oooh, CLAIMED!”
Even though this trade could totally fuck the Dodgers in the long run I’d prefer it didn’t happen.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
My fuckin phone died on the way home. Best thing I ever bought but terrible battery life.
I live in the city and getting to Skokie for me is the worst (dying laughing) so any secret spots would be appreciated!
Tonight I’m drinking Six Point’s Resin because I just wanted the hoppiest thing they had, really.
AkabariQuote Reply
@ Akabari:
The Binny’s is right off 94, on Dempster just before LeClaire.
In the city, try Miska’s on Milwaukee, immediately south of Lawrence, across from CVS. It looks like a dive, but trust me. The bar has great stuff on tap, even if it is full of the dregs of Jeff Park, and the bottle shop is really good. Also look at Golden Leaf Liquors on Irving, Elston and Monticello, but they tend to be a bit pricey. The Foremost by Cicero and Belmont sometimes has it, as does the Foremost on Kedzie in Albany Park. Then there’s West Lakeview Liquors on Addison, which is great and often has JP.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://www.sbnation.com/2012/8/24/3267004/mariners-white-sox-gif-eric-thames-michael-saunders
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Your knowledge of the city shames me on every level. I can, however, tell you where the best coffee in Hyde Park, nay, I argue the city is. Istria Cafe. I don’t think I’ve ever had better coffee before or since.
Now, of course, I’ll be put to shame for believing that.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I only know beer, food, and Uptown. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
So I asked my Sox friends about the attendance thing and while they were very happy with the team in general they didn’t feel the need to go to the Cell because they didn’t feel like putting up with douchebag Yankees fans (not sure how many of that crowd in Aisley’s rant were Yank fans) and they also didn’t want to spend on the tickets. I guess in a small sample (N=2) that Sox fans are just fiscally responsible or something.
/cool story bro
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
That doesn’t explain in the least why it’s been this way since 2002, no matter how the team is doing.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/239264923220332545
Holy fack.
GBTSQuote Reply
How did we not get Soriano in that Dodger deal?
GBTSQuote Reply
This also makes the Red Sox a huge player in 2013 free agency, though I would think there’s no chance in hell Greinke would sign there.
GBTSQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/08/red-sox-dodgers-complete-nine-player-blockbuster.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29
That shit is bananas.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
That’s weird. The Cubs spent $300 million when they were trying to sell the team. The Dodgers spent $300 million after buying the team.
SK in the officeQuote Reply
This has got to be the worst trade in baseball history and I don’t think there’s another trade that could even come close. If you do a top worst trades the list will be like this:
Dodgers acquire all the shitty contracts from the Red Sox
there’s just no point in going on because the difference between this trade and the next one isn’t even close.
mb21Quote Reply
@ SK in the office:
Maybe they’re going to turn around and sell the team for $6 billion.
GBTSQuote Reply
josh wrote:
On a vaguely related note, I was at Costco the other day and heard someone extolling the store brand coffee as “the best, even better than Dunkin Donuts!”. I somehow managed not to laugh out loud.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Theo needs to call them up and make this a three team deal that somehow sends Soriano and Lackey to the Dodgers as well
BerseliusQuote Reply
Dunkin Donuts still exists?
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Why the fuck did they send prospects???
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Dunkin >>> Starbucks, fwiw
GBTSQuote Reply
@ mb21:
You’ve been to RI, there’s one on every corner there
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
DD coffee is great….if I need to empty my colon.
Seriously though, I do like their pumpkin spice coffee, but I’m not going to pretend it’s great coffee.
BerseliusQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
Cubs Den did a Q&A with Jim Callis
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2012/08/q-a-with-jim-callis-on-cubs-prospects/
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing) I never would have remembered that had you not pointed it out. RI has The Dunkin Donut Center.
I’m very skilled at ignoring things I have no interest in and doughnut shops is one of them. So are coffee shops.
mb21Quote Reply
I would be amused beyond words if this trade didn’t even allow the Dodgers to snag a wild card this season.
I am impressed that Cherington was able to make this happen though. It’s combo smart plus taking advantage of crazy/desperate folk.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
No doubt. Fantastic trade for the Red Sox. If the Cubs hired Cherington to be their GM they’d have found a way to trade Soriano for Strasburg. They’d be the best farm system in baseball and favorites to win 8 of the next 10 world series. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
It kind of sucks too because the Cubs either didn’t have the right stuff or didn’t have the right rapport with the Dodgers to try to get Dempster over there and maybe this uber-trade doesn’t happen. It’s a bit of sour grapes on my part because even if all the Red Sox guys were underachieving (or broken) this still makes LA a hell of a lot better even though the Giants are playing pretty well with their existing roster.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
I love coffee shops, cafes, diners, and even the occasional donut shop. I’m defriending you.
SK in the officeQuote Reply
Pancake houses, Can’t forget about them.
SK in the officeQuote Reply
@ SK in the office:
Waffle Houses?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ SK in the office:
I don’t drink coffee so those places are just clutter.
mb21Quote Reply
SK in the officeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I passed a bunch driving in the south recently, but I’ve only been to the northern pancake ones.
BTW, WTF is Dollar General? It was everywhere in the south and looked kinda scary.
SK in the officeQuote Reply
@ SK in the office:
They sell shit nobody wants and some of it costs a buck.
mb21Quote Reply
@ SK in the office:
That’s where meth-heads do their shopping.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Is it true that the Athletics and Rays don’t have a game scheduled for tomorrow, or is Yahoo full of shit?
SK in the officeQuote Reply
Mark Grace is a piece of shit, and fucking Cubs fans are sending him well-wishes. He got behind the wheel drunk, when he has more than enough money to hire someone to cart him around. He’s a piece of shit. Always has been, and these fucking sycophants love him.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Fuck Mark Grace. Fade into obscurity, you womanizing, drunken hack.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
This completely eliminates the Dodgers from the FA market for a couple of years, you’d have to think. It’s possible the Dodgers could still swing a trade for Vernon Wells, Barry Zito and Alfonso Soriano yet too though.
Chet MastersonQuote Reply
.Chet Masterson wrote:
Don’t tell me what to do.
SK in the officeQuote Reply
Can’t believe this Dodgers deal. How the fuck does their management justify this? I guess the owners really just don’t give a shit about money.
PFDQuote Reply
fwiw, i’d be ecstatic if i were a dodgers fan
GWQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
Looks like B-Jaxx is having a good game including another B-Jaxxing (and no Ks).
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Not an official BJaxx game, then.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Holy shit balls, we need a new thread.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ SK in the office:
I’m pretty sure they’re off because of the RNC beginning tomorrow.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
He was saving it for the last at-bat of the game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Maybe we should start spelling it “B-Jackks”
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
RE: Dunkin Donuts. I actually prefer their drip coffee to Starbucks drip coffee, but drip coffee or a pour over from a real coffee place is preferable to both. And yes, DD coffee does clean out my colon.
There are 2-3 good coffee shops in C-U. The best that’s closest is a place called Zojo. It’s really the only one that touches Istria. Istria is awesome. Zojo here is very good. They have good drip, good pour overs, amazing espresso drinks. Amazing iced coffees/lattes. I don’t drink them, but my wife swears by their chai lattes as well. Good all around.
I love good coffee.
joshQuote Reply
Welp. That didn’t last long: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120825&content_id=37317462&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
joshQuote Reply
@ GW:
If I was a fan, I would be too, but I was thrilled when the Cubs signed Soriano. If the Cubs were trying to win at all costs like they did for a couple years I wouldn’t much care about anything as long as it improved the team and this would. So if I was a Dodgers fan I’d say it’s a bad trade and I’d move on to planning my October in front of a tv watching my favorite team.
mb21Quote Reply
So I guess I missed the game?
joshQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
One of those k’s needs to be a backwards k. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
BJakʞs
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Maybe I’m being too hard on Starbucks. I bought some on Thursday and threw it in the fridge, when it’s cooled down by Monday I’ll give it a try and reassess.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Your counterargument for whether or not DD sucks can’t be “Let’s compare it to Starbucks.” They’re both just shitty chains full of people who don’t give a shit.
joshQuote Reply
I don’t know why the fuck Starbucks always uses the thermonuclear setting on their steamer. It’s insane. You go to a good coffee place and you can drink your cappuccino immediately. It’s b/c they’re in a big stupid hurry and it’s easier to blast it then do it right.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
You should make that the macro for him. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/08/25/red-sox-chairman-tom-werner-is-pretty-high-on-james-loney
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
“It also brings us a player in Nick Punto, who was unquestionably the best toddler on the tee-ball diamond in 1991.”
GBTSQuote Reply
Three true outcomes!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
josh wrote:
I always have to ask for mine extra hot or it’s a tepid cup of swill within 3 minutes.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Lots of ways to fuck up coffee.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/brenly-nearing-broadcasting-free-agency-kerry-wood-coincidentally-available.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
So true.
joshQuote Reply