Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (37-25) @ Milwaukee Brewers (39-26)

In Series Previews by dmick8962 Comments

The Cubs head to Milwaukee for the biggest series of the year so far. The Cubs are half a game behind the Brewers. It’s not a huge series or anything since it’s only the middle of June, but I think both teams are just wanting to get out of this series without getting swept. 

Team Leaders

Cubs

Brewers

Injuries, transactions, vengenace pacts, etc.

Zach Davies is out with a shoulder injury and Jimmy Nelson is still out with the shoulder he injured against the Cubs late last season. Eric Thames is out with a thumb injury. 

Eddie Butler is still out with a groin strain and there’s no ETA on his return. It was reported yesterday that Yu Darvish probably won’t pitch before the all-star break. Carl Edwards, Jr. has been out since the end of May with shoulder inflammation. He’s reportedly pain free and in the middle of a strengthening program. 

Pitching Probables

ERA, FIP, Projected K/9, BB/9, FIP listed for each pitcher.

Monday: Jose Quintana, LHP (4.20, 4.08, 9.21, 2.88, 3.49) vs Junior Guerra, RHP (2.83, 3.74, 8.49, 4.03, 4.78), 7:10 PM CT

In 2014, 2015 and 2016, Quintana’s HR/FB was below 10% and he was a really good pitcher. Over the last two years it’s been about 13.2% and he has been above average, but not nearly as good as we’d hoped for. He’s walked a lot of guys this year compared to the past. He’s walked more than double the batters per 9 this year that he did in 2015 and 2016. 

Junior Guerra was the Brewers opening day starter last year and he sucked, but he’s been a lot better this season, but that’s thanks almost entirely to his HR/FB rate falling back to normal levels. He’s also walking fewer batters than last year, but in line with what he did before that. He’s not as good as his 2.83 ERA. His xFIP is 4.22. 

Tuesday: Tyler Chatwood, RHP (3.86, 4.99, 7.73, 5.21, 4.54) vs Chase Anderson, RHP (4.57, 5.81, 7.62, 3.17, 4.93), 7:10 PM CT

Both of these pitchers suck. Chatwood walks every other batter he faces and Anderson can’t strike anybody out this year. Anderson also gives up a lot of home runs so maybe Kris Bryant can go deep in this one. I expect the Brewers to take 7 walks in 3.2 innings from Chatwood and the Cubs will hit 3 home runs off of Anderson. 

Wednesday: Mike Montgomery, LHP (8.81, 2.68, 3.70) vs Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (8.09, 3.11, 4.10), 1:10 PM CT

This will be Monty’s fourth start of the season. He’s been pretty good so far. He’s thrown 17.2 innings, allowed 11 hits and 2 runs. He’s given up only 1 home runs, walked 2 and struck out 10 in those previous three starts. Overall on the season, he’s on par with what he did a year ago. He’s striking out a few less batters, but walking fewer too. If Yu Darvish ever comes back, I hope Monty stays in the rotation and Chatwood goes to the pen.

Chacin is a really good pickup for the Brewers and cost less than half what Chatwood did. He’s been a little lucky so far this year (6.9% HR/FB rate) and he’s given up a lot more fly balls this season. His career GB/FB rate is 1.52 (that’s exactly what it was in 2017) and this year it’s 0.98. 

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  17. berselius

    Just on the radio here, but Coomer thinks that it would have been close if Braun hadn’t cut that off.

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  59. berselius

    With Chatwood and Anderson starting tomorrow, we could see this same score at the end of the first inning (dying laughing).

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