Thanks to Houston’s six-game winning streak, the Cubs have a firm grip on first place of the reverse standings. How about that George Springer guy? I was kind of confused why everyone seemed to be following his service time shenanigans so closely, but I guess I can see why now.
The Brewers have not surprisingly cooled off from their early season hot stretch, but when your hot start leaves you thirteen games above .500 you’ve got a good starting point. Since May 1, they have gone 9-12 but still sit at ten games over.
Team Overviews
Cubs
- wRC+: 78 (15th)
- BSR: 1.5 (4th)
- SP FIP-: 82 (1st)
- RP FIP-: 92 (5th)
- UZR: 3.8 (8th)
- DRS: 5 (9th)
- Run differential: -11 (9th)
Brewers
- wRC+: 97 (6th)
- BSR: 1.2 (5th)
- SP FIP-: 110 (12th)
- RP FIP-: 92 (6th)
- UZR: 6.1 (6th)
- DRS: 18 (6th)
- Run differential: 17 (5th)
If the Cubs had even a simply below average offense, they could be a pretty good team. They’ve had bad luck based on their run differential/peripherals, though from the FO’s perspective I guess it’s pretty good luck. But the natives sure are getting restless.
News, notes, injuries, blood pacts, etc.
This big news this week (and more or less this season) centers around Wrigley Field. After the team (finally) threw down the gauntlet with the rooftops, the city took issue with the new plans for the bullpens. Not sure how ‘new’ it is when they’ve apparently been talking about this for weeks, but the Cubs had to know that merely breathing near the bricks and ivy would raise the hackles of the Landmark committee. I don’t think this is a big deal – did anyone expect that the city wasn’t going to get its pound of flesh with any significant change in the plans? I agree with Brett, this was probably set up so they could back down on stuff that they were going to back down on anyway to make everyone look good. They’re starting to back down already (h/t RC).
Speaking of the bullpens, I am very confused as to how the teams would be able to see into it, as was mentioned in a few pieces about the new plan, without taking out a ton of wall.
There’s been a lot of Cubs-O’s buzz about a Shark deal. Dylan Bundy, anyone?
Former Cubs Aramis Ramirez is still on the DL. He took a few grounders earlier this week and might be coming back soonish. Another former Cub, Tom Gorzellany, is currently rehabbing in AAA and could be back soon as well. Yovani Gallardo is dealing with a minor ankle injury, but was able to make his last start.
Pitching Matchups
ERA, xFIP, and projected FIP listed for each pitcher
Friday: Travis Wood, LHP (4.35, 4.14, 4.10) vs Marco Estrada, RHP (3.98, 3.74, 4.18), 7:10 PM CT
I’ve been surprised every time that I’ve seen Wood’s ERA over the past week or so, as I remember his Shark-like start to the season. Since those first four starts, he’s had three 5+ run outings, including a shellacking by the White Sox and a pitching-to-the-score outing in the Cubs offensive explosion against the Cardinals. Wood’s walk and HR rates are right in line with his past performance, and his strikeout rate is even up a little bit. His main problem this year has been sequencing (66.6%) and BABIP, which is currently .283 but has usually been around .250-.260 for his career. He’s even allowed fewer line drives, so it’s not like teams are hitting him that hard. Considering how few hits he generally allows I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw a no-hitter someday (much the same was said about Zambrano pre-2008).
Estrada on the other hand has had a lot of luck in both directions – he’s allowed 16 HRs so far this season, the most in MLB by a sizeable margin, but they don’t seem to have burned him that much. While he has a bad HR/FB rate, he also has a .240 BABIP and a regression-worthy 88% strand rate. He’s given up nine runs (and 6 HR) over his last two starts.
Saturday: Jason Hammel, RHP (3.08, 3.58, 3.84) vs Wily Peralta, RHP (2.12, 3.37, 4.23), 3:10 PM CT
Peralta is having a nice breakout sophomore season thus far. It feels like he’s been the team for a good while, but aside from a September callup in 2012 this is only his second year. He throws 95 mph sinkers and gets a ton of GBs. The Cubs missed him in the last series, but he went seven innings against them in late April, striking out six in seven innings and allowing a HR to Castro.
Hammel was having a solid start against the Padres, and I was kind of surprised when they pulled him relatively early until I remembered his bizarre hand injury from the previous start. The bullpen ended up scoring his baserunners so his line doesn’t look as good as the outing felt while watching it. He’s only once been charged with more than three runs in his ten starts this season.
Sunday, Sunday, Sunday (in track announcer’s voice): Jeff Samardzija, RHP (1.68, 3.27, 3.31) vs Kyle Lohse, RHP (2.92, 3.53, 3.93), 1:10 PM CT
I’m not sure who I’m more relieved for following Shark’s first W of the year, Shark or the bullpen. It’s certainly been frustrating for him. As dumb as the win stat is, it still means something to starting pitchers, as well as his bottom line when he hits the market. You could tell from quotes by the bullpen that they were all kind of nervous not to be the guy who blew yet another Shark win too, so that monkey is off their back as well. Shark struck out ten giants with no walks in his outing, though he did get knocked around relative to his performance for the rest of the year. The dream of seeing him start the ASG with an 0-8 record has now died.
Lohse has been doing Lohse things since coming over to the Brewers, namely, walking barely anyone and putting a lot of balls in play. His strikeout rate has jumped significantly this season, however, though I don’t really see a difference in his pfx. He has one of the lowest GB% I’ve ever seen for a guy who throws a lot of sinkers.