Seattle just lost their minds

In Commentary And Analysis by myles98 Comments

Felix Hernandez is an incredible pitcher. I'd take Clayton Kershaw over him, sure, and maybe Matt Cain. Other than that, though, Felix might be the most valuable pitcher in the game today.

That being said, he's not worth 7 years and $25 million a year. No pitcher is (or, I should say, was), unless he is vintage Pedro or Maddux. Unfortunately (for the Mariners), that's exactly what's about to happen.

What baffles me isn't the amount of money on an annual basis. Hernandez is a demonstrably better pitcher than Zack Greinke, who has an AAV of $24.5 million. What baffles me is the timing: Felix had 2 years left before he was slated to be a free agent. The Mariners are agreeing to take on an insane amount of risk with absolutely no compensation. If the Mariners got a hometown discount on Hernandez, I shudder to think what his fair-market value is.

Here's a thought experiment for you. Take 10 pitchers at random. How many of them have not missed a start to injury in the past 7 years? Statistically, probably 2? 1? Catastrophic injuries happen to pitchers all the time, lesser injuries to almost every pitcher. Hernandez already has 1620 major league under his belt. I'd wager the probability that the Mariners get a positive ROI with Hernandez is around 5%.

They aren't even in contention right now! The mind boggles.

What this does mean is that the market for Bourn probably just shrunk by one team (unless the Mariners are really stepping it up to compete this year). That's a good thing for the Cubs. Chicago doesn't have a great chance at Bourn, but it grows nearly every day…

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  1. Ryno

    The only reason that run not happening isn’t driving me crazy is that it would have left BAL with about 1:45 to go and three timeouts. SF showed they didn’t have an answer for BAL’s goalline defense, so I’m thinking we would have missed the 2-point conversion. BAL kicks a FG and wins.

    If I were calling the plays…

    2:00, 2nd and 5 – Frank Gore up the middle.
    1:20, 3rd and probably 3 – Frank Gore up the middle
    :45, 4th and 1 – Frank Gore up the middle

    We either:
    A. Get stuffed all three times – Fine. We did what we do best and they just beat us.
    B. Score – Great. But BAL had to use some timeouts and the clock is run down. It’s a bit tougher for them to get into FG range with 1:30 and no timeouts or 1:00 and one timeout.

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  2. Mucker

    @ Ryno:
    I thought the playcalling by the 9ers on that final goal to go was bad. I thought the 9ers lost that game in the first half and especially after they stopped attacking Ray Lewis. Lewis was beat all day by Davis and Crabtree a couple of times and they should have kept attacking his zone/man. I thought for sure they would score on that last possession but the Ravens D was able to get the stops. And I know you probably disagree but I thought it was a good no call on that last play. I thought it looked like contact on both sides and to me the ball looked uncatchable anyway. But if it were the Bears, I would be pissed so I feel your pain. (dying laughing)

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  3. dmick89

    I don’t understand the Mariners doing this either. it reminds me of Cardinals locking Carpenter up several years ago when he still had two years of club control. Sure enough, he got injured. It’s just dumb.

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  4. Ryno

    @ Mucker:

    The ball was definitely uncatchable, but that could have been because the DB was holding Crabtree by the jersey. It was right in front of the referee and plain as day. I get if you don’t want to call that, but then Culliver shouldn’t have been called for PI on the previous BAL drive on third down.

    All that said, I know BAL would have gone down and won the game if we execute the plays we had called. The only way we would have won that game is if we had run the 4-minute offense, scored on 4th down and gotten a 2-point.

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  5. gbts22

    @ Ryno:
    Does catchability of the throw even matter if the hold took place before the ball was in the air? Isn’t that an automatic first down regardless?

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  6. Author
    Myles

    Well, it’s actually an interesting thing. The contract makes more sense for anyone besides the Mariners precisely because they didn’t have the 2 relatively “cost-controlled” years. Still, I don’t think the Cubs want to pay 25-27 million a year for 7 years on anyone.

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  7. Ryno

    @ gbts22:

    No. Catchability only matters on PI. The BAL DB was pulling Crabtree’s jersey, impeding his ability to catch a thrown ball. That’s holding, half the distance to the goal, automatic first down. The ref might not have wanted to make a call that can have that much of an impact, but then they shouldn’t have called an equally egregious PI call minutes before that extended BAL’s drive.

    It’s not the reason we lost. Hell, it’s not even in my top 10 reasons why we lost. It is, though, a bad no-call that impacted the game.

    Don’t get me wrong, there were some unfair calls that hurt BAL too. But that game was not called fairly. Williams not being ejected or even penalized after shoving the official (it’s supposed to be an automatic ejection), blatant holds on the kick return TD, no call on the helmet to helmet on a “defenseless” WR in the last SF series, no call on Ed Reed being lined up offside on the 2-point conversion attempt, no call on the hold on Crabtree and a few others.

    But really, considering all that and the hole we dug in the first 30:11 of that game, it’s a testament to how good SF is that it was even a game toward the end. They had to be nearly perfect for 29:49, but they were only so for 27:49.

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  8. SeaMan

    Why am I reading about the superbowl “no call” under an article about the highest pitcher contract EVER? Quit your whining San Fran; there were plenty of PI’s that could’ve been called against your secondary in the first half as well. The refs were consistent and that’s all that matters.

    As for Felix, I LOVE IT. The guy is 26 and in all probability has his best years ahead of him. I LOVe that he wants to be the guy in Seattle and he wants to take us to the world series. I’m not sure what the remaining two years of his contract were but i’m allright paying him now and keeping him here long term.

    Go M’s! Go Hawks!

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  9. dmick89

    Jed Hoyer today:

    The first I ever heard of that was this morning when I saw it, so clearly, no, it didn’t ring true to me at all,” Hoyer said. “I can tell you it would be preposterous that Theo or I would be involved in that. So I can comment for the two of us. I obviously wasn’t there. I don’t know the story he’s talking about so I can’t comment on the rest of it. I can tell you certainly it wasn’t Theo or me.”

    Schilling (today???)

    “I don’t remember who they were. I was trying to downplay the whole thing because I wasn’t playing at the time and I didn’t want to cause any problems in the clubhouse,” Schilling said. “Had I known Theo was going to report it to MLB, I would have never said anything. I was kind of mad that he had to do that.”

    If Theo reported it and it appears now that MLB did investigate this so I’m guessing he did, what the fuck was Hoyer doing? Why would he say that shit and not even text Theo to see what was up? Hoyer looks like a clown.

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  10. Rice Cube

    @ dmick89:
    Based on the two statements in the quotes and my rather flimsy sense of reading comprehension it doesn’t seem like Hoyer is in the wrong. He didn’t hear anything from Theo and didn’t actually think to ask, and Theo didn’t actually initiate the line of conversation to Schilling to take some PEDs. Maybe he just never thought to look into it, or it never came up in conversation, or he just had his thumb up his ass. *shrug*

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  11. dmick89

    It’s not a big deal, but Hoyer said the first he’d heard if this whole thing was today, which seems highly unlikely considering Theo contacted MLB and they investigated it. Presumably they’d have talked to the front office or Theo would have said, hey, we were told something by Schilling so I was, you know, wondering if you knew anything about this?

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  12. SVB

    @ dmick89:
    Amen.

    I’ll just take this opportunity to reiterate that I think we’ll have an openly gay pro team sports player before the DH gets to the NL. I know MB thinks the Cubs might win as many as 80 games, while I think losing 100 is more likely, but I think my prediction above makes me the more optimistic one. (dying laughing)

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  13. Mucker

    Schilling just brought this up today and people are already talking about how this might affect his HoF chances? Thanks but I’ll wait awhile.

    /Yellon’d

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  14. SVB

    From ESPN:

    USA TODAY Sports and The Associated Press initially reported Hernandez and the Mariners agreed to a new seven-year deal — that would have started this season — worth $175 million. But the deal actually is a five-year extension that will begin in 2015, sources told Olney.

    Hernandez will make an average annual salary of $27.1 million over the extension, the highest average salary given to a pitcher in baseball history — aside from Roger Clemens’ $28 million prorated salary in 2007.

    Not that this changes the discussion much, although it does illustrate that the next two years were pretty expensive anyway, nearly $20M each.

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  15. MCLonnie

    @ dmick89:
    A lot of you folks are missing some key data and yet you insist on blovating why the Mariners signed Felix to the contract that they did. If you look at things in terms of WAR you’ll see that the Mariners actually got a discounted rate. I know that it is pretty hard for you Yankee fans to accept the fact that Felix Hernandez will never wear a Yankee uniform.

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  16. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    A lot of you folks are missing some key data and yet you insist on blovating (dying laughing)

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  17. WaLi

    Ryno wrote:

    @ SeaMan:
    Probably for the same reason I’m reading a Seattle fan’s reaction to the overpriced signing of a Mariner on a Yankees blog.

    Because we are all in denial about this abysmal season for the Cubs coming up and rather not talk about it?

    Blackhawks are an NHL best 9-0-2. They are looking fantastic and Kane has been phenomenal so far. It’s a shame it has to be a shortened season.

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  18. Mish

    Heh, it takes a post about a Seattle Mariner pitcher on a sabermetric Cubs blog to get some new (silly) voices into the mix. Something wrong, we’re doing it. (dying laughing)

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  19. bubblesdachimp

    I dont think the contract is that absurd. Felix is pretty good. They were going to have to pay that if thye wanted to keep him. if not more.

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  20. Ryno

    @ WaLi:

    I was thinking because no one really cares about the Cubs anymore. Every thread on this site devolves. It just happens a little sooner when I’m around.

    Remember: 49ers, NFL Draft, smoked meat. Put up the signal if you need me.

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  21. Edwin

    For some reason I always thought this was a breaking bad blog. I never understood why everyone kept talking about baseball anyways, I thought that was just to pass the time.

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  22. Edwin

    It just seems that the amount of risk is so high, even with a player as amazing as Felix. Felix is one of my favorite pitchers, so I’ll be rooting for him, but Myles makes a great point about the length of the deal.

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  23. WaLi

    @ Edwin:
    The way I look at it is If this was a Cubs FA signing I’d be happy. I’d be worried, but I’m an optimist like mb so I’d be happy.

    The downside (and it’s a huge downside) is that Felix had two more years of guaranteed play for Seattle, so why sign this extension now. Could his contract have actually gotten larger?

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  24. Edwin

    @ Ryno:

    What about beef jerky? I just got a dehydrator for christmas, and I’d love to make some jerky, but I don’t know which cut of meat to buy. Alton Brown told me to use flank steak, but that seems uber expensive.

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  25. Edwin

    @ WaLi:

    I think if I was a seattle fan, or if the Cubs signed Felix to this kind of a deal, I’d be happy too. I guess I’d rather the team take a risk on that kind of contract, just for a chance to watch a future HOF in the rotation for another 7 years.

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  26. Ryno

    @ Edwin:

    Edwin is right that you should use a leaner cut. It keeps better. Check out the roast cuts and look for one with little marbling. Should be pretty cheap too.

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  27. dmick89

    MCLonnie wrote:

    A lot of you folks are missing some key data and yet you insist on blovating why the Mariners signed Felix to the contract that they did. If you look at things in terms of WAR you’ll see that the Mariners actually got a discounted rate. I know that it is pretty hard for you Yankee fans to accept the fact that Felix Hernandez will never wear a Yankee uniform.

    CAIRO projects 4.9 WAR for Felix in 2013. If we go with -0.5 WAR per year, we get this:

    2013: 4.9
    2014: 4.4
    2015: 3.9
    2016: 3.4
    2017: 2.9
    2018: 2.4
    2019: 1.9
    Total: 23.8 WAR

    If we use a win value of $5.5 million in 2013 and increase by 7.5% annually, here’s how much Felix is worth over each year:

    2013 27.0
    2014 26.0
    2015 24.8
    2016 23.2
    2017 21.3
    2018 19.0
    2019 16.1
    total 157.4

    Players who sign multi-year contracts (3 years and longer) give teams a 10% discount so he’s worth $141.6 million over the next 7 seasons. Even if Felix was a free agent right now, he’s worth less than $150 million over 7 years. He’s worth $20.2 million annually and is being paid $25 million per year.

    Except he’s not a free agent right now. He’s not a free agent for 2 years so the M’s are taking on a tremendous amount of risk that they simply don’t have to take on right now.

    There’s no reason whatsoever to believe that a $27 million annual contract won’t be available after 2 more seasons. The M’s could wait those seasons and then pay him the same amount that they’re paying him now. Actually, they could quite probably pay him less.

    Just because he’s a face of the franchise or whatever doesn’t mean a team needs to sign that player two years before he’s a free agent. He’s the face of the franchise in 2013 and 2014 whether they sign this extension or not.

    This is a terrible contract.

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  28. dmick89

    @ Rice Cube:
    Personally, I think Hoyer is lying, but I don’t know why. I have no idea what he gains by lying. I don’t care if he is because it doesn’t affect his job.

    But let’s say he’s being honest. Give him some credit and say he’s honest Jed. What does that say about him? It either means he took an extended leave of absence around this time (like for 5 years) or his head is buried in the sand. There is almost no way for him to know about this. This is exactly the kind of thing you want your executives to know and since we know Theo knew, there’s no reason to think Hoyer didn’t.

    So I still come back to him lying about this.

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  29. dmick89

    I also find it interesting and even entertaining, but rather sad at how Schilling has been treated. Sure, he’s a dumbass and has proven that at times, but he’s been anti-ped for a very long time. If he had named Manny or Papi or even ARod the media and fans would be giving Schilling a blow job. But since he talked about executives in a way that has to excuse some behavior by the players, he gets trashed.

    I knew this would happen. This isn’t a story because he didn’t name a player and nobody gives a shit about steroids. They care about records.

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  30. dmick89

    In order to be worth the $175 million contract, the M’s would have to expect just over 29 wins from Felix through 2019. That’s certainly possible, but it’s not at all the most likely outcome. And even if they did expect 29 wins, you’d sure as hell like more than a 10% discount since you’re signing the contract while he has two years of club control left.

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  31. WaLi

    @ dmick89:
    I think you have him declining too much, he is only 26. I think he can hold onto 4.9 for two years in a row and start declining 2015. That leads to:
    Year WAR
    2013: 4.9
    2014: 4.9
    2015: 4.4
    2016: 3.9
    2017: 3.4
    2018: 2.9
    2019: 2.4
    Total: 26.8

    At the same payrates, it comes out to ~$179M.

    I still think it isn’t a great contract due to the timing of it, but it isn’t awful. And as they say in the fangraphs article, maybe the hometown discount is that he actually signed with the Mariners.

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  32. Mucker

    @ WaLi:
    He’ll be 27 in April. Not to mention over 1600 innings already. I think you have to pay a premium for a pitcher of his caliber but that’s a very high premium for a team that has a lot of other needs. I think the Mariners would have been wise trading him for MLB ready prospects so that when the Angels 3 year window is over, they’ll be in good shape.

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  33. WaLi

    @ dmick89:
    That’s a little unfair – he was 19 and 20 in his first two years and was worth rWAR of 2.6 and 1.1. His IP has gone up to around since then (compared to 84 and 191). Over the last 6 years his rWAR is 27.8 and fWAR is 31.9. If he can do close to that over the next 7 then in terms of WAR this is a good contract.

    There are two reasons this aren’t – and they are big reasons – because of the risk of injury and because they already had him under contract for the next two years.

    You know more about this than me though. I don’t know if it is realistic to expect 230 IP per season for the next 7 years even if no injuries occur.

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  34. Ryno

    @ dmick89:

    I’m guessing this article is showing up in a bunch of new Seahawks fans’ RSS feeds or something. So he’s probably only been a sports fan for a few months.

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  35. EnricoPallazzo

    dmick89 wrote:

    This isn’t a story because he didn’t name a player and nobody gives a shit about steroids. They care about records.

    they also care about righteous indignation and there’s not a lot of room for that here.

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  36. dmick89

    @ WaLi:
    I’m not trying to say he’s not a good pitcher. He is. He’s one of the top 3 in baseball (Kershaw, Verlander). I’m just trying to highlight that the M’s are essentially paying him for the same quality of pitching he’s already had and that’s not at all likely.

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  37. WaLi

    @ dmick89:
    Yeah I know you think he is good – I’m mostly in the same boat as you. I think if this was a FA contract it would be somewhat of a good deal, especially with the price of a FA going up the way it seems like it is.

    dmick89 wrote:

    I’m just trying to highlight that the M’s are essentially paying him for the same quality of pitching he’s already had and that’s not at all likely.

    I found this article: http://m.nbcsports.com/content/mariners-wager-their-future-felix-hernandez%E2%80%99s-right-arm

    Of the 11 best young starters in the last 50 years, just three accomplished more from age 27 onward than they did through age 26. There are three Hall of Famers on the list in Blyleven, Seaver and Eckersley and two more guys with Hall of Fame numbers in Clemens and Martinez. None of the other six came anywhere close to getting elected.

    So 3 of 11 did more later in their careers than earlier, and 5 of 11 are Hall of Famers.

    I guess it could go either way for Felix (dying laughing)

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  38. EnricoPallazzo

    from that fangraphs article:

    And one thing we haven’t touched on, because it’s difficult to quantify, is Hernandez’s meaning to Seattle. His loyalty, and peoples’ loyalty to him, has value, of some amount. He’s the face of that franchise, and he’s the one superstar on a team of half-decent veterans and potential up-and-comers. We don’t know what it would mean to the Mariners’ books were they to let Felix go, but it probably wouldn’t mean anything good. Hernandez adds value and appeal to a franchise that needs as many fans as it can get.

    i have an issue with this. i think this is built in to the WAR-based contract value. you don’t need to add more just because a player is the face of a franchise…do you? is a win from felix worth more than a win from your backup catcher? if the team wins 47 games next year, will they have more people tuning in to their games? i guess more people will tune in when felix is pitching but that’s surely not worth a $25m bonus on an already huge contract. and if they’re winning, people will tune in regardless.

    (either way this does nothing to explain why you would offer this contract now as opposed to 2 years from now but i was just wondering if anyone thinks there is merit to the fangraphs position.)

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  39. Ryno

    But for my fellow rational/logical thinkers on this site, I’d like to reiterate that I blame several other factors more for the loss than officiating.

    And for the rest of you, I’d like to reiterate that you read every word.

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  40. SVB

    I think the Mariners should make sure MLB provides balls made with a lean cut of leather and put them in a dehydrator. They’d score more because it would help an anemic offense hit the ball farther and opposing batters would be even less likely to lean into a Felix pitch. That would go from sting to cauterize. Also they should trade for Alex Smith. He doesn’t have to be mobile on the mound.

    /thread unity

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  41. The Wreckard

    Keep in mind too that no one anywhere wants to sign in Seattle. When was the last time they were able to get a top tier player to voluntarily come there?

    This was the last year that they had any leverage to hammer out an extension. The risk for Felix to wait on an extension is greatest now – so you can exploit that and actually get him to stay.

    I think this had more to do with that than anything else. It was a bit of an overpay simply because it’s such an unpopular free agency destination.

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  42. Rice Cube

    @ dmick89:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/cubs-gm-jed-hoyer-connection-curt-schilling-ped-171557165–mlb.html

    So I re-read the quote again and just by the letters of the words and not the implications it seems like when he says “that’s the first I’ve heard of it” that is a lie of course. But then he also says that neither he nor Theo had ever directly told a guy to take PEDs, and that was corroborated by Schilling for whatever that’s worth. This might just disappear into the ether as a non-story.

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  43. gbts22

    Also, (dying laughing) from Beltre’s Wiki:

    Beltré’s decision not to wear a cup despite playing third base has been well-documented. This came back to hurt him on August 13, 2009, when he took a hard ground ball to the crotch.

    Although he stayed in for the remainder of the 14-inning victory, he was put on the DL after suffering bleeding in one of his testicles.

    In his first game back from the DL from that injury, teammate Ken Griffey Jr. conspired with those responsible for the Safeco Field PA system to have Beltré’s at-bat intro music be the waltz from The Nutcracker Suite.

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  44. Mucker

    Am I the only one who thinks it’s amazing that Pedro was able to generate a 12 WAR season in ’99 while having a BABIP against of .323?

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  45. WaLi

    @ EnricoPallazzo:
    For what it’s worth, I ran some quick numbers.

    In games that Felix Pitched, average attendance was 25,491

    In games that Felix didn’t pitch, average attendance was 24,573.

    So you have about 900 people per game over 33 games that attended Felix’s games (almost 30,000 people).

    I’m not sure how much tickets are, but lets say $30 a ticket. That is more than $2,000,000 extra from attendance alone that he is producing. I’m sure when you add in memorabilia, TV viewers, etc. that number goes up.

    What I didn’t do is look up whether Felix pitched more on weekends or days with better weather or whatever, so maybe that helped. I’m guessing over the course of the season it averaged out though.

    Edit: I’m an idiot. Forgot to factor out away games. Fixed now.

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  46. WaLi

    @ WaLi:
    An extra $14 million in ticket sales over 7 years is your hometown discount. Of course if he gets hurt, the Mariners are screwed. It’s a gamble, but it makes sense. If I can pull this information out of my ass in 30 minutes I’m sure an agent could. Plus they know how much concessions, memorabilia, etc. that comes along with it too.

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  47. WaLi

    Ryno wrote:

    Still talking about Seattle?

    I was talking to myself about Seattle still (dying laughing)

    Has anyone ever made Salmon jerky? I would like to try it, but don’t want to waste the Salmon if it sucks.

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  48. The Wreckard

    gbts22 wrote:

    The Wreckard wrote:
    When was the last time they were able to get a top tier player to voluntarily come there?

    Beltre after his 48 homer season.

    Exactly. Not only was that a long time ago, it’s a cautionary tale to any other free agent slugger thinking about going there.

    It sounds crazy (and probably is), but that decision could cost him a Hall of Fame plaque.

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  49. Ryno

    @ Edwin:

    I’m a little biased, but I think Texas S Kenny Vaccaro is tops. He is objectively my favorite DB in this draft. He’s physical enough to play SS, but he has the ability to play nickel CB if you needed.

    I like LSU S Eric Reid, but I think he’s slightly overrated. I like him in the 2nd.

    Georgia S Bacarri Rambo is basically a less instinctive Reid, but you can probably get him 45 picks later.

    Florida S Matt Elam is probably a SS only, which drops him for me. I like how SF uses their safeties to disguise coverage. I think you have to be able to do both.

    Florida International S Jonathan Cyprien is one of my favorites at any position. He’s REALLY physical. Plays with the chip of a less talented player, but has a lot of ability as well. He’s probably up to the late first early second by now.

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