OV Preliminary Free Agent Predictions

In Commentary And Analysis by GW20 Comments

If you haven't yet entered the OV Free Agent Prediction Contest, there is still time! It closes the day after the World Series ends*, so get on it. There is much glory and a bobblehead at stake here, people! Here are good lists of free agent position players and pitchers.

*Hopefully this happens ASAP. There are no good possible outcomes, but the worst would be a legendary, 7-game affair that is commemorated in a 30 for 30 documentary and replayed endlessly

In the meantime, I decided to tally up the current entries to get an idea of what the readership of this blog thinks the team will do in free agency. The results? I don't think we have a clue. Three big names have pulled away from the pack to a degree (Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, and Masahiro Tanaka), indicating that many here believe the team may actually spend some real money this offseason. That thinking isn't unanimous, however, and the current results may just reflect the fact that among the players who aren't big names, there is significant division on who the club will pursue. No less than 62 players have received some prediction units (52 if you discount the possibility of a 2008 reunion). Here is a list of everyone who has received at least 10 units:

Player Units
Jacoby Ellsbury 79
Shin-Soo Choo 73
Masahiro Tanaka 57
Bronson Arroyo 31
Curtis Granderson 31
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 24
Chris Young 23
David DeJesus 20
Kelly Johnson 19
Hiroki Kuroda 19
Josh Johnson 16
Robinson Cano 15
Tim Lincecum 15
Phil Hughes 13
Aledmis Diaz 13
Joba Chamberlain 13
Juan Carlos Oviedo 10
Grant Balfour 10
Suk-Min Yoon 10

The second tier is currently led by Bronson Arroyo. I hadn't considered Arroyo much of a possibility (do not want, frankly), but you could do worse than Jamie Moyer 2.0, and there is a Boston connection there. The second-tier outfielder vote is divided among Granderson, Chris Young, and David DeJesus (and Kelly Johnson, if you consider him an outfielder). After Tanaka and Arroyo, this blog thinks that Kuroda, Josh Johnson, and Phil Hughes will get consideration among starters, and that Lincecum would have, had he made it to the market.

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  1. Author
    GW

    Round 4, P Hunter Ackerman

    The hits keep coming. A fourth rounder out of college needs to show something. Ackerman’s high-water mark was in 2012. In short-season Boise. He had a WHIP over 1.7. That would be bad for a high-school fourth rounder. Picks like this are why changes had to be made. Be it scouting, development, or all of the above.

    uhh… no. picks like Simpson are why changes had to be made. complete busts in the fourth round happen all the time.

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  2. Myles

    GW wrote:

    Round 4, P Hunter Ackerman

    The hits keep coming. A fourth rounder out of college needs to show something. Ackerman’s high-water mark was in 2012. In short-season Boise. He had a WHIP over 1.7. That would be bad for a high-school fourth rounder. Picks like this are why changes had to be made. Be it scouting, development, or all of the above.

    uhh… no. picks like Simpson are why changes had to be made. complete busts in the fourth round happen all the time.

    3 people drafted in that round that year have made it to the majors. Changes need to be made everywhere.

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  3. dmick89

    however, and the current results may just reflect the fact that among the players who aren't big names, there is significant division on who the club will pursue.

    This. We split the vote. I'm also not sure it's that we think the team will spend money, but would prefer they do. It's what we'd do.

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  4. Author
    GW

    dmick89 wrote:

    I don’t see Kuroda signing with anyone other than the Yankees.

    Yeah, he won’t come cheap, and he’s going to be 39(!), so I have trouble seeing him sign with the Cubs.

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  5. dmick89

    @ GW:
    I’m hoping they are interested in him as a few reports suggest they will be. I think the question is if the Yankees try to buy their way out of their problems. If they do, I don’t see the Cubs having much of a chance.

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  6. Berselius

    GW wrote:

    Yeah, he won’t come cheap, and he’s going to be 39(!), so I have trouble seeing him sign with the Cubs.

    I thought I saw something a while back saying he was going to go back to Japan.

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  7. dmick89

    Also, if they don’t end up signing Cano, they’ll have all kinds of money to spend in free agency. A-Rod will probably be suspended so that money is available.

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