Given the lull between games as the Cubs traveled to London and have to do their whole tour and marketing thing before the weekend games, there isn’t much in the way of Cubs news especially since they aren’t getting any players in the next round of All-Star voting anyway. We talked a wee bit about London and All-Star stuff on the last Dreamcast but we also considered the rest of the season, where the Cubs still miraculously (or maybe not, it could go either way) have a shot at winning the division because the rest of the division is bad and I still don’t think the Reds are first-place good, although they certainly are on a tear and those wins still count.
I took a look at the playoff odds on FanGraphs the other day and then decided to wait for the Pirates to lose again before I did this. Over the weekend, all teams will be in action, and as of this moment, the odds say that the Brewers are still the odds-on favorite to win the Central while the Reds are projected to finish in fourth place behind the Cubs but just barely. Projections are good and all, but banked wins and losses still count, and it’s irksome to see a fumbling Cardinals team still projected with better odds to win the division than the Cubs. At least the Cubs have a 0.5% chance of winning the World Series, which is nonzero and triggers the Dumb and Dumber gif if I had it handy.
What is interesting is that behind the Brewers, the Cubs have the best odds of winning the Central, edging out the Cardinals and the Reds. It probably has to do with the remaining strength of schedule for all teams, but I don’t think the Reds care since they did dispatch the Astros and some other allegedly good team that I forgot in addition to mopping the floor with bottom dwellers. But this does make sense because if you look at the wild card standings, the Cubs are five games back of the Dodgers for that final spot, and they’d have to overtake the Brewers and Phillies to do it. We can reasonably assume that the Cubs are not catching the Dodgers, and if they have to leap the Brewers anyway, at that point they might as well just win the division.
Per the division standings, the Cubs sit two games back of Milwaukee and are just 3.5 games back of Cincinnati. Sweeping the Cardinals, which is always a tough ask even in a short two-game series, would bring the Cubs to 38-38 for a .500 record for the first time in a while. This weekend, I believe the only divisional matchup is this set in London between the Cardinals and the Cubs, while the others play outside their division.
Looking at the stretch before the All-Star Break, so up until July 9:
- Reds: 3 vs ATL, 3 @ BAL, 3 vs SDP, 4 @ Nats, 3 @ Brewers (they also play the Brewers again coming out of the break)
- Brewers: 3 @ CLE, 4 @ Mets, @ PIT, 4 vs Cubs, then those 3 against the Reds plus coming out of the break
- Cardinals: 2 vs Cubs in London, 3 vs HOU, 3 vs Yankees, 4 @ Miami, 3 @ White Sox
- Pirates: 4 @ Miami (including the one they already lost), 3 vs SDP, 3 vs Brewers, 4 @ Dodgers, 3 @ Dbacks
- Cubs: 2 vs Cards in London, 3 vs PHI, 3 vs CLE, 4 @ Brewers (obviously the big series), 3 @ Yankees
I am not good enough at predicting baseball to say what will happen in these next couple weeks, but of course it would be nice for all the other teams to go 0-for while the Cubs run the table, at which point the wild card once again becomes a reality even if they stumble down the stretch. Every team the Cubs play have obvious flaws that can be exploited, but of course that can be said for the Cubs themselves. Nevertheless, everything starts with this weekend and getting back to .500, so go Cubs and may every other team implode like poorly designed submersibles.
Comments
Happy Sandberg Game Day
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs back this up please
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/06/23/chicago-cubs-owner-tom-ricketts-sees-the-team-as-buyers-this-year/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Damn, Brewers weren’t supposed to beat up on Shane Bieber.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Dammit Barves, get it together.
berseliusQuote Reply
Today’s lineup is probably as good as it gets minus Amaya
https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1672600151201038336?t=_BTlagK45uLmsSVivC2A6A&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Go Cubs boo Cardinals
berseliusQuote Reply
Hype video –>
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Oh yeah, nothing gets me amped up like Zach Efron Zaidman.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Oh is that who narrated it? I watched on mute (dying laughing)
Yay it looks like MLB dot tv wants to work for me
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Gotta give the Cubs the edge in this series since Dansby Swanson is Britishest-sounding name I could possibly imagine.
andcountingQuote Reply
Happ!!
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
That looked like one of those wacky Miller Park bombs
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Gladrigal
Not Badrigal
Rice CubeQuote Reply
You’d think the Cardinals would feel more at home here since British cuisine is about as well regarded as St Louis style pizza
berseliusQuote Reply
This was nice
Rice CubeQuote Reply
berselius,
Hey there’s nothing like a good meat pie
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Watching a bat shatter is kind of scary yet aesthetically pleasing
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Gameday thinks Steele lost his perfect game attempt on a one-ball walk.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Ump called a strike later way up above the zone to Nootbaar unless I just have a poor perception of the zone
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Nothing like good old steamed meat and suet
berseliusQuote Reply
Holy fuck
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Holy shit.
andcountingQuote Reply
Since Wainwright hasn’t struck anyone out yet *knock on wood* I think the Cubs should keep hitting it in the air
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
(dying laughing) yay bloop
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Happ-y or jolly
Rice CubeQuote Reply
More like Wainwrong amirite
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Holy damn?
berseliusQuote Reply
Alas it is not all happy news as several Cubs seem to be in broken mode 🙁
Rice CubeQuote Reply
TOOTBLAN but at least they got the extra insurance run just before.
berseliusQuote Reply
Nick Madrigal is now a triple and home run away from the cycle because the RF “did not respect the power to right field”
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Madrigal just needs a miracle and an international incident for the cycle.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I mean there is like an active coup in Russia so there’s one…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Apparently they turned around but this seems like a no backsies situation.
berseliusQuote Reply
Jesus, Happ, YOU SUCK.
andcountingQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I’m calling that a civil conflict, which, along with a miracle to be named later, would only be good for two triples.
andcountingQuote Reply
I like the part where Madrigal Barney Rubble ran 10 feet to get oomph behind that throw because Goldschmidt is slow
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oli Marmol is short? Or is Rosenthal stepping on a soapbox?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Did I see correctly that the Cardinals’ starter for tomorrow is out with an injury and they may have to do a bullpen start the day after Wainwright went just 3+?
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
They probably should’ve saved Matz for that but if they have that travel day maybe they should think about moving someone up, given how the Cubs struggle against multiple different looks per game I’d prefer they just beat up on one guy for a while tbh
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Hmmm, I still think the K zone box is a bit low even though Boog and JD did try to explain it a few games ago, but that seemed high on Madrigal there.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Boo, no no-hitter
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Right, what’s all this then?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
It would be pretty awesome if they flew some kid up from the minors to make his big league debut in London.
andcountingQuote Reply
Perkins,
Let’s all have a cheeky Nando’s lads
berseliusQuote Reply
This half inning is bullshit
Rice CubeQuote Reply
On the one hand I kinda hate that Mancini is hitting for Bellinger…on the other hand, if you’re going to get a guy back on track it might as well be during a blowout in progress
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yay Madrigal started a double play
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Don’t let’s forget Julian Merryweather
PerkinsQuote Reply
Are the Cubs just wearing those Advocate patches for this series? Feels weird to see no walking bear logo on the sleeve.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Speaking of uniform patches, it’s nice of the Cubs to Stifel the Cards offense today (so far anyway)
I do wonder about the uniform patch as I hadn’t heard that the Cubs had nailed down a sponsorship deal, but their patch is at least nicer than the Cardinals’ ad patch. I think they’ll replace the London Series patch with the bear once they’re home.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Looks like the London Series patch is on the right sleeve, which I think would be the long term spot for the sponsor patch since the walking bear is on the left.
I kinda hate sponsor patches and I don’t love the prominent Nike swoosh on the front of the jerseys, though it’s still better than an Under Armor logo would have been.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I believe the patch alternates based on the handedness of the batter in the box, as well as how the pitcher faces home plate from the mound
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Perkins,
At least they won’t be in full NASCAR jumpsuits yet (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
FIDDLESTICKS!
– Ian Happ, paraphrased
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Quite.
andcountingQuote Reply
Dansby revenge
Rice CubeQuote Reply
You unironically love to see it
berseliusQuote Reply
Opposite field HR are aesthetically pleasing
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs win in 2:40 thanks to scoring a bunch of runs, not sure what that is per the exchange rate
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I would not be surprised if Oli Marmol is fired after this weekend, especially if the Cubs win again tomorrow.
PerkinsQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ Murphy’s
https://twitter.com/murphysbleacher/status/1672696519374282754?t=ywSL27IpIZlCfjBLApVonw&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Go Atlanta
Go Cleveland
Go Miami
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Good day.
andcountingQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
andcounting,
Good….goooooooood…everything is happening as we have foreseen…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I may have to find the condensed game for this one 😮😮😮😮😮 #Coors
https://www.mlb.com/gameday/angels-vs-rockies/2023/06/24/717640/live
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Somehow Ohtani went 1-7 in that game.
andcountingQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
Hope everyone woke up for this
https://twitter.com/WatchMarquee/status/1672950716745371649?t=PNZiRQcftd0-9xBhYlHLpg&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I do believe Barnhart is pretty much Stroman’s personal catcher now
Rice CubeQuote Reply
They damn near filled a football stadium for the first game
https://twitter.com/GuardiansFansUK/status/1672905078427058176?t=zMtXpQHjJTTnDVPHD42qNQ&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Even against a LHP!
https://twitter.com/Cardinals/status/1672936003755991043?t=i5r8X3XBvvUjhAzlialFyg&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Radio only for me, ah well
Rice CubeQuote Reply
They did just play the jingles for “Weresolves of London” and “West End Girls” so at least they are in the right mood (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
“Werewolves” but whatever
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Good morning jabronis, the Cubs have the lead
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Mancini giveth and Mancini taketh away.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Trey what the fuck
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Man City with an own goal.
andcountingQuote Reply
Now is the chance to fix this in the lineup
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Well
That’s certainly a TOOTBLAN
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Guess the Cubs need to score some more and hope that the bullpen helps out some
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Score the runs, fellas
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
No not you cardinals
berseliusQuote Reply
Let’s see if Mancini joins Wisdom on the IL with another phantom wrist injury (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Thankfully just a blister issue for Stro
Rice CubeQuote Reply
berselius,
DFA-itis if he can’t make things happen soon
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Devil Magic rears its ugly head, two rockets right at guys grumble
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Bloody L.
andcountingQuote Reply
Wow, 3:04 game, at least most of us have a full day to do something else now
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
TBH I slept in through half of it (dying laughing). I guess I’m glad that I did.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I did turn it off after Stroman left the game but listened to the last couple innings and got mad re: BABIP
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oh we gonna do this again, ATL?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Pending a comeback, at least we’re not Mets fans 😬
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Pirates lost
Brewers did not lose
Reds losing but still have outs to work with
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Rice Cube,
The Mets went full Mets and the Reds are being pesky
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Barves did not go full Mets
Rice CubeQuote Reply
PCA is now a top 10 prospect per MLB’s Pipeline:
https://www.mlb.com/news/updated-top-100-prospects-list-for-june-2023?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Off day shit –> http://www.obstructedview.net/everyone-else-can-go-ahead-and-just-lose/
Rice CubeQuote Reply