Cubs Gameday: Pirates (7-2) @ Cubs (5-4) (4/9/2018) (Opening Day)

In Game Threads by myles98 Comments

Time: 2:20 PM CST
TV: ABC 7 Chicago, MLB Network
Radio: 670 the Score

Cubs

Happ CF
Bryant 3B
Zobrist 1B
Contreras C
Schwarber LF
Russell SS
Heyward RF
Baez 2B
Tyler Chatwood SP

Pirates

Harrison 2B
Polanco RF
Marte CF
Bell 1B
Dickerson LF
Cervelli C
Moran 3B
Mercer SS
Ivan Nova SP

I think I’m the high man on the planet for the Pirates. I don’t hate that lineup – not sure there’s an all-star on it but it is pretty deep, with nobody so bad that you feel there is a free out to be had. There’s a lot of value in having a low-variance lineup, where you can feel that you can consistently score a few runs. I’m not sure the Pirates are better than the Cardinals or the Brewers (in fact, I’m very sure they aren’t), but if you told me that they’d have a better record than one of them I wouldn’t be shocked at all.

Of course, that pitching staff is horrible (though with some upside). The Cubs will dodge the staff ace (Taillon) and today they get Nova, who is almost the definition of a league-average pitcher. He’s a pitch to contact guy who should be helped by the extreme frigidity of today’s game.

Tyler Chatwood is going to have to not walk a shitload of batters today. Free passes are going to be backbreakers in a game that figures to have almost no offense due to course conditions. Saying that, prepare for an 8-6 game or something.

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Comments

  1. Rizzo the Rat

    Baseball picked a hell of a year to start the season early (not that it’s relevant to this relatively late home opener).

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  2. dmick89

    Rizzo the Rat:
    HR/FB varies widely year-to-year for starting pitchers, let alone relievers (e.g., look at Kershaw). Anyway, I’ll be keeping an eye on how he does this year. My suspicion is that his true talent rate is far lower than the 20% he’s shown lately.

    You may be right, but my guess is that at the end of the year the group the Cubs have now end up with better numbers than if you substituted the guys who were in the bullpen last year when some of us were complaining about the bullpen. I think that’s where this discussion began.

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  3. Rizzo the Rat

    I wouldn’t be surprised either way. The changes look pretty even to me (Morrow/Davis, Grimm/Butler, Cishek/Rondon).

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  4. dmick89

    Rizzo the Rat,

    I’d prefer Morrow because I think he’s going to walk fewer people and probably allow fewer home runs than Davis would have. I can see the argument that they’re about the same and I think they’re close, but I’d take Morrow over Davis. I don’t know much about Butler, but you’re probably right. I like Cishek a lot more than Rondon as we discussed. Like you, I also think Wilson is going to be about what we expected when the trade happened last year. He just couldn’t get comfortable last year, but like Strop and Edwards, he’s going to lose the zone every once in awhile and it’s going to be frustrating.

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  5. Author
    myles

    myles:
    This radio broadcast is really annoying with that constant shuttering sound.

    I had the zuckerberg testimony on at the same time (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) I’m an idiot

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  6. Perkins

    I kind of doubt Wainwright lasts the season in the rotation. And while I hope he does for the Cubs’ sake, the Cardinals would probably be better served to use him in relief for his swan song season.

    Hell of a career though.

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  7. Tyrone

    Evan Silva @evansilva
    “I’m getting more & more vibes that Sam Darnold is not gonna be the first pick. Josh Allen is not just smoke. It’s a very real thing. People I’m hearing this from, I trust.” — @LanceZierlein on @fduffy3’s show:

    Well they’ve been the Browns for the last few decades, so I guess why stop now?

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  8. dmick89

    Perkins,

    He wasn’t very good with elite spin rate so I’m not really sure why anyone would expect him to good now just because he switched uniforms. Chatwood isn’t a bad pitcher and he’s probably not as bad as he’s pitched through two games (he was lucky to not give up at least 4 runs in his first start). He’s also not very good.

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  9. Perkins

    myles,

    I think the Cubs were at least strongly in the running. The Dodgers haven’t hosted one since 1980, so that’s another decade beyond the Cubs. But I think 2021 would be a possibility since they stopped mandating that the site alternate leagues every year.

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  10. dmick89

    How hard would it be for MLB At Bat notifications to not sound ridiculous? We had the papa slam and they constantly refer to a no hitter as a no no. Stop it.

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  11. Berselius is too lazy to login on his phone

    dmick89:
    How hard would it be for MLB At Bat notifications to not sound ridiculous? We had the papa slam and they constantly refer to a no hitter as a no no. Stop it.

    Clearly they should be calling it a nope nope.

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  12. GW

    dmick89: He wasn’t very good with elite spin rate so I’m not really sure why anyone would expect him to good now just because he switched uniforms.

    1) Spin rate believers think it’s a tool to identify underperformance. A way to quantify “stuff,” in conjunction with fastball velocity, maybe other things. I haven’t seen the definitive article, nor have I ever found it all that useful for fantasy purposes. My guess is that there is an effect, and that it’s quite a bit less useful than just looking at traditional DIPs numbers.

    2) With Chatwood, there’s also the additional altitude factor. Ad absurdum: curve balls don’t break in outer space. Drew Pomeranz is the canonical example for getting a breaking-ball pitcher out of Coors. As I mentioned in a piece a while back, I have yet to see anyone correct for the fact that spin rates should also be faster at altitudes, so I don’t know if this should temper our assessment of his spin rates. We should be able to answer that one fairly soon.

    Also, as someone here pointed out, if his breaking pitches start moving a lot more, that could ultimately be a problem for a guy with fairly shaky control.

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  13. Tyrone

    The Root @TheRoot
    Cincinnati Bengals reportedly asked Eric Reid for a commitment that he wouldn’t kneel during national anthem; he refused and left without a contract offer: trib.al/LcWlOEY

    “We know you’re a good football player, boy, but can you make a commitment to us that you’ll stop exercising your rights?”

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  14. berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    CF Almora
    3B Bryant
    C Contreras
    LF Zobrist
    SS Russell
    1B Caratini
    2B Baez
    RF Heyward
    P Lester

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  15. Berselius is too lazy to login on his phone

    (dying laughing), Caratini looking good at 1B is making me laugh even more at Braun.

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  16. cerulean

    More Javy:

    1B: 1
    2B: 1
    3B: 2
    HR: 4

    That’s an interesting distribution of hits. He will finish the season with 16 singles, 16 doubles, 32 triples, and 64 homeruns.

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