BP’s top 10 Cubs prospects + consensus Top 14 prospects

In Commentary And Analysis, Minor Leagues by myles20 Comments

The BP list came out, and it's a great read. Here it is, but a sub is required. I recommend getting a subscription; it really is great work. I won't share any of the bits besides the Top 10 list:

1. Baez
2. Bryant
3. Almora
4. Soler
5. Edwards
6. Alcantara
7. Johnson
8. Vogelbach
9. Villanueva
10. Candelario

No surprises on this list. Now, we have 5 rankings of at least some quality (the mlb.com and FG rankings probably barely qualify here). 14 people were vote-getters for a top 10 list (Sickels went 20 deep, but I ignored 11-20). If a player wasn't mentioned in a list, I gave them No. 11 for average purposes. Here's the list:

  BP Fangraphs BA Sickels mlb.com Average
Baez 1 1 1 1 1 1
Bryant 2 2 2 2 4 2.4
Almora 3 3 4 3 2 3
Soler 4 4 5 4 3 4
Edwards 5 7 3 5 11 6.2
Alcantara 6 5 7 6 8 6.4
Johnson 7 6 6 7 7 6.6
Vogelbach 8 8 9 9 10 8.8
Vizcaino 11 9 10 11 6 9.4
Candelario 10 11 8 8 11 9.6
Olt 11 11 11 11 5 9.8
Villanueva 9 11 11 10 11 10.4
Szczur 11 11 11 11 9 10.6
Hendricks 11 10 11 11 11 10.8

I'm going to make a list, probably today, and write it up as well. I'll be using the system that Uncle Dave and dmick created, because I think it's really, really good.

Thoughts? Can you believe that someone put Matt Szczur on their Top 10 list? 

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  1. bubblesdachimp

    Regardless of anything else these lists make me really excited. I love reading nice things about Baez. He makes me happy. He will be my next jersey

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  2. bubblesdachimp

    Bubbs personal top ten would be






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  3. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ bubblesdachimp:
    That’s fairly close to what I’d have, but I’d have another drop after Soler and would have Almora closer to Alcantara. I think Alcantara is a bit underrated and Almora a bit overrated (maybe a lot). After Johnson I think it’s just several interesting players who are probably going to be replaced on the list before too long.

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  4. Andrew

    @ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:

    No offense but have you actually seen Almora or Alcantara play to make that decision? You can’t judge prospects on stats alone, there has to be projection involved as well. I don’t understand how you get an opinion that completely differs from the consensus of scouts without having seen the players play. Same thing ranking Johnson in front of Edwards. Not one up to date source has Johnson better than Edwards (new mlb.com rankings are coming out soon).

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  5. Andrew

    @ bubblesdachimp:

    If you don’t know why, there isn’t any reason to think it. I’m guessing you, like myself, have never seen Almora actually play. Every scouting report says that Almora has a special hit tool and will play elite centerfield defense.

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  6. GW

    from the last thread (and last thing i’ll say about it):

    Andrew wrote:

    they have a lot of players on the wrong side of the aging curve.

    they really don’t. in their projected starting lineup, it’s just Dunn and Ramirez. (assuming Konerko assumes a bench role, which i think is accurate. he’ll probably take a few at-bats from Dunn at DH).

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  7. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Andrew:
    I’ve seen neither of them play and even if I had, I wouldn’t have seen them enough (2-3 years worth of games to satisfy me) to be able to estimate their talent based on my eye. Not to mention, my eye is quite untrustworthy, as are the scouts who have gotten many, many things wrong over the years. So are the stats because there are any number of reasons (park, age, injuries, etc.) the stats may not represent the player’s talent.

    If you’re saying the scouts are those who should be trusted over some commenter on a blog, I’d absolutely agree. I’d not want to change anyone’s opinion based on these guys based on mine. If you’re saying that stats in the minor league are worthless, I disagree. The more stats you have, the less scouting matters. Obviously that isn’t the case with Almora and we’d lean far more heavily toward scouting.

    I guess what I’m really trying to say is that when all the scouts agree with one another on all players then I’d suppose you’re right to question someone if they feel differently. If you’re saying that I should take what these flawed, but very good at their job people are saying, I disagree. They know way more than I do, but they’ve made enough mistakes, many of them quite obvious, that I won’t do that.

    If you instead want to just argue about whether Alcantara belongs behind Almora, I’m not interested.

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