Big Dylan’s BIG Prospect Update

In Minor Leagues by Obstructed View Staff132 Comments

Time for another review of how the prospects that John Sickles picked as our top 20 are doing.

1. Brett Jackson AAA- We've talked to death about Jackson's struggles this year but it bears repeating. Jackson has struck out an amazing 33.8 % of the time this year. It's an insanely high number and it doesn't seem to be getting any better. In fact, he struck out 45 % of the time in June. What's amazing is that June was a very productive month as he hit .282/.352/.545. Overall he has still managed a wRC+ of 115 and an .833 OPS. It's hard to get a feel for Jackson right now but its never good to have a prospect get exposed with a major flaw in his game before major league pitchers get the chance to exploit it.

2. Anthony Rizzo MLB- You already know the story here.

3. Javier Baez A- Baez has the highest ceiling of anyone in our system right now and just yesterday was ranked # 25 overall by BA. He is sporting a wRC+ of 146 which is awesome. Nobody thinks he will stay at SS long term but he has flashed some serious athletic ability in the field and if he can't be a SS he should make a damn fine 3B. Now, there are a few things to point out though. One is that much like Brett Jackson Baez has some swing and miss to his game, he currently is striking out in 22.3% of his AB's and strikeouts were one of the question marks scouts had for him when he was drafted. He is walking at a 5.8 % rate and sporting a .342 babip. 

4. Matt Szczur High A- I really really like this guy's chances. In his second full season of pro ball Szczur has made huge improvements to his plate eye and is drawing walks at a 12.7 % rate. He has stolen 26 bases at a 76 % success rate and is sporting a nifty 130 wRC+ in the FSL which is a heavy pitchers league. KG may not approve but I sure do and think the Cubs have found their leadoff hitter.

5. Trey McNutt AA- He's a bust as a starter so lets try him out in the pen. Not a top 15 prospect for me anymore.

6. Dillion Maples AZL- Hasn't pitched yet but should make his debut later this month.

7. Dan Vogelbach AZL- For a guy like Vogelbach to be a legit prospect he needs to rake. He plays 1B and doesn't play it that well so he needs to just beat the piss out of the ball for us to consider him legit. So far he is doing just that. Through 49 AB's Vogelbach is hitting .388/.434/.694. Over half of his hits have been for extra bases and I wouldn't be surprised to see him move up a level before too long.

8. Junior Lake AA- Lake was having a great season but is stuck is a horrible slump that has seen him sport a .418 OPS in his last 10. Currently he is sporting a 106 wRC+. It's hard to know what we have with Lake but if he flames out the Cubs will probably try him on the mound as he has the strongest IF arm in our system.

9. Welington Castillo AAA- Castillo has been up and down between AAA and the majors this year. He has hit well in Iowa posting a .863 OPS and not so well in the bigs. Still think he and Clevenger will be a nice duo for the near future.

10. Dae Eun Rhee AA- Rhee has totally collapsed this year as a prospect. They should find the AA pitching coach and shoot him. Rhee went from a 8.25 K/9 last season in Daytona to a 4.29 this year while allowing a ton of HR's. 

11. Josh Vitters AAA- Vitters is generating a lot of discussion both at this blog and elsewhere on the internets. There are those who believe he has figured it out (me) and those who think he will never be anything more than league average. Either way its hard to classify this year as anything but a breakout season for Vitters. His line of .300/.352/.505 is good for a 116 wRC+ and his next BB will tie his career high. The power is up, the the walk rate is up and he still has a very pretty swing for a RH hitter than the Cubs fell in love with in 2007. I expect to see him up for a cup of coffee in Sept then get the job next season.

12. Jeimer Candelario Low A- Another breakout hitter in our system Candelario has been praised by scouts and is also putting up good #'s. He has a .329/.378/.513 line in Boise. It doesn't look like he can stay at 3B so maybe LF is in his future but if he keeps hitting like he is that won't be an issue. In addition to being the best hitter on the team Candelario is also the youngest (18). BA was hinting we might see him in the top 100 next season. 

13. Marco Hernandez Low A- Hernandez tore up rookie ball last year but has struggled with the bat big time so far. This article sums up where he is at quite nicely. It's refreshing to see a player know their flaws and work to address them.

14. Chris Carpenter- Traded.

15. Rafael Dolis MLB- Back to walking guys in the big league bullpen.

16. Zach Cates A- The other guy in the Rizzo trade Cates has been pretty shitty this year so lets just say nice things about his start last night when he struck out 5 in 4.2 IP.Good Job Zach!

17. Ben Wells A- Sigh. My love affair with Wells is well documented but lets recap. In a system that I consider to have the worst pitching prospects in all of baseball we saw a kid with an ideal frame, a wicked sinker that was getting a 2.42 GO/AO rate, pinpoint  control at 1.8 BB/9 coupled with an increasing K rate at 7.9 K/9 and velocity going from 90 up to 95. We saw all of that this year and then he blew out his elbow. Of course. 

18. Dave Sappelt AAA- He is not doing well.

19. Ronald Torreyes High A- Torreyes woke up from his season long slump in June batting .330/.400/.523. He has always hit before this years so lets hope he can keep turning his saeson around. 

20. Reggie Golden- ACL.

So there you have it. MB and I are working on a pair of our own rankings that we will post sometime here in the near future that should more accurately reflect the state of the farm system. 

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Comments

  1. Author
    Rice Cube

    WaLi wrote:

    @ Rice Cube:
    I read an article on CNN after I made that post:

    Lifeguard Szilard Janko said he guarded Lopez’s zone while the latter aided the swimmer.

    “They let him go after he performed the rescue,” Janko said. “They fired him basically on the spot.”

    So before he left he made sure the other lifeguard had his area. Sounds like he did everything right. I guess other employees were fired for saying they would do the same thing (dying laughing)

    Sounds like he did everything right except to consider liability.

    Re: Big Dylan’s list…is Chris Carpenter still broken?

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  2. Author
    WaLi

    Over half of [Vogelbach’s] hits have been for extra bases and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him move up a level before too long.

    bubbles agrees. He should be starting in the MLB line-up with Baez by 2014.

    /bubble’d

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  3. Brett

    josh wrote:

    Brett needs a bit of help, plus I’m curious to see if his posts turn to gibberish in hour 28:

    http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/07/05/force-me-to-blog-for-30-straight-hours-at-the-trade-deadline/

    Good God Brett pays a ton of money for his site! I pay per year what he pays in a month. Granted, no one visits my site (especially now that my comic moved over here) but still, that’s insane.

    Yeah, I had to step it up a fair bit this past offseason thanks to Epstein squealing (for which I’m very thankful, obviously). It’s one of those things where I have a lot more coverage than I need on the average day, but the only way to account for the spikes when things like a Soler signing happen is to have a whole lot of extra space. I remember when it cost me a whopping $10 a month for hosting.

    And thanks, RC, for posting that, by the way. As usual, the OV crowd is a mighty kind group.

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  4. Author
    mikeakaleroy

    @ josh:
    We don’t have any around these parts, so when i was in Louisville last summer, I ate a bunch of burgers from there….Several Tums later, I was able to move and speak again…The first thing I said was “Never Again”…

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  5. Author
    mikeakaleroy

    @ josh:
    I lived off of Quik Trip Bacon Cheeseburgers for a year. Damn tasty, and they didn’t grease through both buns like White Castle… On a funny note, the White castle frozen burgers aren’t as bad as the fresh ones…

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  6. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ GBTS:
    I think the fuss was more that his body is so bad at such a young age that it’s hard to really expect much from him.

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  7. Author
    SVB

    All this low-qual burger discussion requires a repost of the Gary’s BBQ photo from the Retro Rice Cube discussion.

    Eat REAL meat.

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  8. Author
    mb21

    josh wrote:

    Good God Brett pays a ton of money for his site! I pay per year what he pays in a month. Granted, no one visits my site (especially now that my comic moved over here) but still, that’s insane.

    FWIW, Brett’s cost is slightly cheaper than the cost of hosting this site. When we bumped up from a VPS to a Dedicated server we actually went with the same company and plan that Brett was using, but Dreamhost was one big fail after another. So we went back to the VPS, but doubled our level. The cost per month to host this site is $129.99.

    So we thank everyone who visits this site and we especially thank those who turn off adblock. We also encourage other regulars to turn theirs off if they haven’t already. This site ain’t cheap and you get all the wonderful, enlightening and brilliant content for free. (dying laughing)

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  9. Author
    mb21

    Brett wrote:

    I remember when it cost me a whopping $10 a month for hosting.

    I miss those days. I remember when ACB started I think we were paying $4.95 per month. A few years later it was over $100. Crazy.

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  10. GW

    @ mb21:

    i threw out my shoulder a few years ago playing softball, and have since tried to convert, but it’s not pretty. i can’t imagine doing that at a professional level (which is apparently what the korean kid did).

    rickenbacker claims he can hit 95 lefty and 88 righty off the mound.

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  11. Author
    Rice Cube

    @ mb21:
    You should check them out sometime. This latest one under the draft race that hasn’t been updated in a month ( 😀 ) wants to sell you a VW Tiguan.

    The one on your sidebar wants me to eat at Subway with Michael Phelps.

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  12. Author
    WaLi

    @ mb21:
    I think you guys should host a “Force us to not blog-a-thon” for 30 hours. We’ll pay you guys to not post a thing in an attempt to un-discredit the blog.

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  13. Author
    Rice Cube

    @ Rice Cube:
    I also wonder, since you now require us to refresh the page to update comments, whether each refresh also gives you additional money. That could be one of the best minor things to every happen to your site.

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  14. Author
    mb21

    @ Berselius:
    Yeah I think you’re right. There is a CPC (cost per click), but nobody clicks these ads and it’s not how advertisers evaluate whether it’s a good investment to advertise on your site. They want people seeing the ads. Like that BK drink thingy RC was talking about. He hasn’t been there forever, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he drove by one and stopped after seeing the ad.

    A lot of people think they have to click the ads to help a site generate revenue and sometimes people to have CPC ads with no CPM. So these people use adblock because they’ll never click on an ad, but it’s super simple to help support a site you frequent. I use adblock plus, but I do disable it on any site I frequent. If I go once then I don’t care, but if I keep going back I figure why not? Takes a second longer to load. Big deal. Some of the places I’d go I’d actually give money to keep running so what Brett is doing is really cool. It’s a great idea and I hope he comes out with twice as much as the hosting cost. He deserves it. We’re too discredited to do something like that. (dying laughing)

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  15. Author
    Rice Cube

    mb21 wrote:

    Like that BK drink thingy RC was talking about. He hasn’t been there forever, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he drove by one and stopped after seeing the ad.

    I’d still drive right on by without stopping but I’d seriously consider getting a drink for about two seconds.

    Advertising win.

    /cool story bro

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  16. Author
    mb21

    @ Berselius:
    That sucked. I know Brett’s had good luck and we probably joined at the wrong time, but in the almost decade that I’ve had a domain hosted somewhere I hadn’t come across any place as incompetent as they were. Small sample size applies. I’d take Brett’s word over ours, but I also know I’d never recommend them and would in fact steer people away. I can’t think of a time I was more miserable dealing with this shit than then. I don’t even think it’s close.

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  17. Author
    mb21

    @ GW:
    I don’t understand how these guys can do it, but it’s apparently not uncommon for pitchers to be able to do this kind of thing. We know Z could hit the upper 80s left-handed and shagged fly balls that way. I think it’s fairly common for pitchers to shag fly balls with the opposite hand that they pitch.

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  18. Author
    mikeakaleroy

    Hmmmm, i wonder if the click thru ad money gets paid if my company firewall blocks the site I’m trying to get to…Guess I’ll keep clicking and find out, but I’m not sure why security is at my desk with empty boxes… (dying laughing)

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  19. Brett

    mb21 wrote:

    @ Berselius:
    That sucked. I know Brett’s had good luck and we probably joined at the wrong time, but in the almost decade that I’ve had a domain hosted somewhere I hadn’t come across any place as incompetent as they were. Small sample size applies. I’d take Brett’s word over ours, but I also know I’d never recommend them and would in fact steer people away. I can’t think of a time I was more miserable dealing with this shit than then. I don’t even think it’s close.

    I feel like shit that it happened to you when it did. I’ve been with Dreamhost since the beginning, and there have been hiccups here and there, but there were more serious problems in that month and a half than in the rest of my 4+ years there combined. It was a brutal, brutal stretch, and I very much considered moving on, too. I’m glad you found something that works for you. And I continue to cross my fingers every day…

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  20. Author
    mb21

    @ Brett:
    No reason to feel bad. It could have happened anywhere we moved. We’d had such good luck with Hostgator that we moved back to them. Their dedicated was about twice as expensive so we increased our VPS to roughly equal what we were getting on the dedicated server. No big deal at this point though I was furious at the time. I’m sure you were too. Down time is the worst thing for a website. Regular readers stick around, but any readers you may get from search hits or inbound links almost never come back.

    If you ever did move on I wouldn’t hesitate to recommend Hostgator. When ACB moved to Bloguin that’s what they had so I’ve had a site on it one way or another since the end of 2009 and never had a problem. Servers get messed up on occasion. That’s just a reality of hosting a website so of course we’ve had the occasional hiccup, but the site (ACB or this one) has never been down for longer than a minute. Even when that happens, you usually get an error. From what I could tell it just sounded like Dreamweaver was completely unprepared for the DNS attacks on that data center.

    One thing that irritated me even when Dreamhost was functioning was that we couldn’t run a flash chat room. I was able to run that thing with about 15 users on a shared host and never had a problem at all on a VPS. Maybe it had to do with the attacks they were experiencing, but I’m not sure. Any chat we’ve done since then has been with it Cover It so no big deal in the end.

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  21. Author
    Rice Cube

    @ mb21:
    You never know when you’ll need to adapt your phone for a street fight.

    #theresanappforthat

    It looks like they want it to be used akin to Batman’s wrist computer. I wonder what Mish thinks of this.

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  22. Doogolas

    I turned my adblock off for this site. But only because you guys don’t suck.

    Also, question for Josh, my brother wants to borrow your characters from your comic, directly at that with the colors and probably words, to make a signature for a forum he’s on cause he likes the blog. I’m assuming you’re cool with it if he throws a link to here in there?

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  23. Author
    Rice Cube

    @ mb21:
    I had meant to ask about that as well as the Garza rumors. Detroit needs an improvement in their defense as well as a boost to their anemic offensive production at the 2B spot, although I wonder if it’s not to their benefit to use Barney at SS and someone else at 2B (assuming the trade happens). Let’s say Barney and Garza go to Detroit in a package…what’s a fair return?

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  24. Author
    mb21

    It depends. Is Barney a great fielder? Is he average or above average? That’s really the question with Barney. Considering he was an above average defensive SS in the minors I’m comfortable saying he’s a very good defensive 2nd baseman. Not as good as BRef has him (21 runs so far), but good. He’s valuable. Quite valuable.

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  25. Author
    Rizzo the Rat

    @ mb21:
    I’m just amazed at how there is such a gap between his DRS (what b-ref uses) and his UZR (3).

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  26. Author
    Rizzo the Rat

    @ Rice Cube:
    I think it just looks at where the ball is hit. Also, if I remember right, UZR ignores radical shifts, while DRS includes them, which leads to some of the anomalies (fielders getting to balls way out of their zone).

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  27. Author
    Rizzo the Rat

    Watching the Strasburg game. I guess I’m rooting for the Nats this year on the off chance that the Cubs don’t make it to the playoffs.

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  28. Author
    josh

    I turned the game off after Santana struck out the side after Johnson’s double. Turn it back on and I just missed Rizzomania.

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  29. Aisle424

    I have missed every single one of Rizzo’s HRs. I haven’t even heard them live on the radio. If I judged him solely by what I’ve personally witnessed, he’s only kind of meh.

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  30. Author
    Rizzo the Rat

    People laughed at the Ryan Howard extension, but look at him now. He’s hitting .500/.500/.750. Those are Barry Bonds-type numbers. Totally worth $25 million/year.

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  31. Author
    mikeakaleroy

    Totally my bad, gang. I haven’t watched a pitch tonight, but saw it was the 9th, so kept the game on. I’ll go back to Wilfred on the DVR now..

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  32. Author
    Rizzo the Rat

    Believe it or not, Marmol’s WPA is positive for the day (just as positive as it would be had he struck out the side in order).

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  33. Author
    SVB

    @ mb21:
    I didn’t know that’s how all this worked. I don’t use Adblock, but I do use NoScript with Firefox. Does that still negate the revenue stream? It seems to interfere with quantserve and sitemeter.

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  34. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    I wonder if the Cubs could get Castellanos and Turner back in exchange for Garza and Barney? Is that too much, or not enough? I’ve stopped pretending I understand fair return for trades.

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  35. Author
    Mucker

    @ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
    I don’t see the Tigers doing that trade. From what I’ve read, Castellanos is one of the better 3B prospects. Garza and Barney might get the Cubs either Turner or Castellanos but I don’t see them getting both.

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  36. shawndgoldman

    @ mb21:

    Do you know if AdBlock can be set up to *only* block pop-up ads? I hate them with the passion of a thousand sports talk hosts… but don’t mind the “normal” ads that most sties (including this one) use.

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  37. shawndgoldman

    DJ, this is a great write-up. For the most part, I don’t have the ability to think for myself or the time to look up the numbers… so my opinions on Cub prospects are more or less carbon copies of yours and the others around here.

    So thanks, for telling me what to think.

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  38. Author
    mb21

    @ SVB:
    I’m not sure how no script works. Are you seeing any ads on the page? There should be one at the top of the sidebar and two others throughout the page.

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  39. Berselius22

    Carl Crawford ————> injured again
    Berselius ——–> nontrivial amount of schadenfreude

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  40. Author
    mb21

    @ shawndgoldman:
    I think your browser can block pop-ups though I’m not certain about blocking pop-up ads. I hate those too and I think they ran on ACB on Bloguin for awhile (once per day for a week or something), but I haven’t noticed them here.

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  41. Author
    mb21

    A groin injury. It’s like Crawford is more quickly than expected becoming a guy who goes from base to base. And he lacks the power to do it.

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