I can't see the original Bill James piece (behind a paywall), but Rob Neyer posted a big excerpt from it at his site.
My instant reaction to the title was that it's a preposterous hypothesis, as I'm someone who thinks that groundballs are underrated by the standard tools of internet sabermetrics, especially FIP. Saber types have tried to factor batted ball percentages in with tERA and SIERA but they've got plenty of their own drawbacks. But when I look at the stats of some prominent ground-ballers (Webb, Wang, Lowe), the FIP-ERA difference isn't noticiably large, except in Lowe's case, where he has generally had a much bigger ERA than FIP over his career. This is who James points to as the exception to his hypothesis that GB pitchers are overrated!
The main thrust of the article is that extreme GB pitchers seem to have a much higher risk of injury, which I kind of think of as an entirely different axis from what I think of as "overrated" anyway.
(h/t HardballTalk)
Comments
I can’t read the article either. I’ll just say 3 things:
1. ERA tends to overrate groundball pitchers, since groundballs lead to more errors, which are blamed on the fielders.
2. Flyball pitchers often have a low BABIP, which measures like FIP and xFIP don’t give them credit for.
3. Some flyball pitchers (e.g., Weaver and Cain) seem to be able to prevent homeruns (have a low HR/FB), which measures like xFIP don’t credit them for.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Maybe they’re overrated on a shitty fielding team? Or because they force a more defense-oriented team rather than an offense-oriented one?
joshQuote Reply
The Cubs put out their probably opening day lineup again, probably because today’s game is also televised.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I don’t think it’s preposterous. Bill didn’t offer any evidence, but it does not mean he’s wrong. The one scout I’ve known in my life much preferred fly ball pitchers.
dmick89Quote Reply
Berselius wrote:
dmick89Quote Reply
Did MLB do those 30 teams in 30 days like they did a couple years ago? It would be entertaining to hear the players and coaches and media try to put a positive spin on this season for the Cubs. I’m guessing it would involve a lot of “something to prove”s and “you never know”s.
joshQuote Reply
Is A-Rod finito? I haven’t been paying attention.
joshQuote Reply
I won’t rest until Berselius’ trend of avatars with cowboy hats spreads to the entire OV membership. I know which one MB will use, even before he does.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I take a little powder
I take a little salt
I put it in my shotgun
and I go walking out
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Were you right?
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/that-revamped-cubs-rotation.html
dmick89Quote Reply