I’m going to compare two Cubs prospects who I’ll refer to as X and Z until the end.
X turns 22 in March while Z turned 22 at the end of August. Both players just finished their age 21 season, but Z is older by several months.
X played a majority of his age 21 season in AA while Z reached AA at the age of 20.
In X’s first partial season in AA he hit a measly .248/.300/.380. Z’s first partial season in AA he hit .223/.292/.383.
In 5 seasons and 1850 minor league plate appearances, X has hit .267/.315/.401. Z has also played 5 minor league season, he’s had 1666 plate appearances and he’s hit .277/.319/.439.
X has walked in 6.8% of his plate appearances while Z has walked in 5.8% of his. On the other hand, X has struckout in 23.8% of his PA while Z has struckout in only 14.8%.
X has far greater speed. He’s stolen 82 bases to just 16 for Z. Interestingly, Z has been caught stealing 16 times while X has only been caught 27 times.
Both are poor fielders who will more than likely have to move positions. X has, however, remained at his position while Z has already been moved around. X plays SS while Z came up as a 3rd baseman and has played some LF and 1st base.
X does much more damage when he puts the ball in play. His Batting Average on Contact (BACON) is .401 while Z’s is .358. X’s Slugging on Contact (SLGCON) is .601. Z’s is .566.
Overall, Z has a bit more power than X, but if Z could cut down on his strikeouts that advantage would be eliminated. X, although he isn’t a patient hitter by any means, is more patient at the plate than Z. X has better speed. Significantly better speed. X plays a more valuable position and since both are likely to move to new positions, that will remain true in the future. Right now, though, Z is probably a bit better though I’m not certain he’s better by that much.
Using Statcorner’s MiLB stats, X has been worth 6.1 WAR since 2009 while Z has been worth 5.8 WAR.
Can someone tell me why Josh Vitters (Z) is seen as a legitimate prospect while Junior Lake (X) is not by many people? I don’t really think either of these guys are going to make any kind of meaningful impact at the MLB level in their careers. I’d put my money on Lake before I would Vitters. It seems to me with his athleticism that if he has to move positions he could easily play 3rd with strong arm. He could play CF and cover all kinds of ground or play RF with that cannon. That doesn’t mean I think it will happen. I don’t think either of these two can hit enough to get much playing time at the big league level. Neither walks much. Lake more than Vitters, but it’s still a low walk percentage. Lake strikes out too much. Vitters doesn’t hit for enough power to play the positions he’d probably have to play at the big league level. The same is true for Lake unless he plays CF.
Comments
[quote name=Berselius]Tutoring math is an incredible gravy train if you can get on it. I did it while a grad student and felt like I was stealing money from undergrads. I probably should have charged more (dying laughing).[/quote]
I tutored a sophomore when I was a Senior in high school. The kid was a dumb shit, but I got $20 an hour to show him how to solve quadratic equations. That was pretty good money for a high school kid over 20 years ago.
Fuck, I’m old.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Z isn’t a prospect, MB. He’s 30 years old.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]Totally baseball related onion article:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/nations-10yearold-boys-if-you-see-someone-raping-u,26724/%5B/quote%5D(dying laughing)
“We feel perhaps not everyone is totally clear on what to do if one witnesses such a thing.”
(dying laughing)
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Z isn’t a prospect, MB. He’s 30 years old.[/quote]Cubs fans don’t think that’s too old to be a prospect. With no playing time at that age they’re wondering why the team doesn’t play the young guys.
mb21Quote Reply
In years there will be some 26 year old SS in the Cubs system and Cubs fans will want the young guy to replace an even younger Castro.
mb21Quote Reply
In 3 years….
mb21Quote Reply
I keep reading Z as Zambrano. Which confuses the hell out of me as I try to read the article (dying laughing)
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415](dying laughing)
“We feel perhaps not everyone is totally clear on what to do if one witnesses such a thing.”
(dying laughing)[/quote]
I love the Onion.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]I keep reading Z as Zambrano. Which confuses the hell out of me as I try to read the article (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing) I didn’t even think about Zambrano. Should have chosen a couple other letters. Oh well.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I tutored a sophomore when I was a Senior in high school. The kid was a dumb shit, but I got $20 an hour to show him how to solve quadratic equations. That was pretty good money for a high school kid over 20 years ago.
Fuck, I’m old.[/quote]I just blew off my 10-year reunion and felt old. Now I don’t feel so bad (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think there is a bias towards american prospects simply because guys like KG get a greater percentage of their info from scouts in the US, who spend much of their time preparing for the draft.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I didn’t even think about Zambrano. Should have chosen a couple other letters. Oh well.[/quote]
No need to change anything on behalf of my stupidity.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
I’m sure it has to do with scouting rather than numbers.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I didn’t even think about Zambrano. Should have chosen a couple other letters. Oh well.[/quote]
Just use some Greek letters instead. Maybe you can confuse other MLB teams into thinking that the Cubs are setting up an academy in the baseball hotbed that is Greece.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]I think there is a bias towards american prospects simply because guys like KG get a greater percentage of their info from scouts in the US, who spend much of their time preparing for the draft.[/quote]I used to think the same thing and then I went through the top 10s on BA one year and a surprisingly large percentage of the players were Hispanic. I didn’t read the scouting reports so it wouldn’t surprise me if they were relatively high, but had criticism that American born players didn’t.
mb21Quote Reply
To be more accurate, I guess I should say that I was stealing money from the undergrads’ parents (dying laughing). The worst was when our tutor list would get spammed by parents looking for tutors for their college aged kids.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I’m sure it has to do with scouting rather than numbers.[/quote]Scouting is still quite valuable for these players, but looking at the production, I just don’t understand it. Even reading the scouting reports that I have I have trouble. Then again, I take most of the scouting reports for Vitters and ignore them because it’s been recent that people have finally started to pay attention to the fact he can’t walk.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]To be more accurate, I guess I should say that I was stealing money from the undergrads’ parents (dying laughing). The worst was when our tutor list would get spammed by parents looking for tutors for their college aged kids.[/quote]You think undergrads are motivated enough to seek help on their own?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
His name is Robert Paulson.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I just blew off my 10-year reunion and felt old. Now I don’t feel so bad (dying laughing)[/quote]
Whippersnapper.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415](dying laughing)
“We feel perhaps not everyone is totally clear on what to do if one witnesses such a thing.”
(dying laughing)[/quote]It’s actually kind of quietly funny (I chuckled rather than laughing out loud) since the underlying topic is so serious. The Onion does that so well. Humor as a defense mechanism FTW.
/cool story bro’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Just use some Greek letters instead. Maybe you can confuse other MLB teams into thinking that the Cubs are setting up an academy in the baseball hotbed that is Greece.[/quote]Has anyone asked Theo what he plans to do with their Greek baseball academy? I could have sworn Hendry made this happen years ago.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Has anyone asked Theo what he plans to do with their Greek baseball academy? I could have sworn Hendry made this happen years ago.[/quote]They were too busy forming one in Finland. Here’s a look at the new Finnish Academy:
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]They were too busy forming one in Finland. Here’s a look at the new Finnish Academy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJX6Psd2Yzw%5B/quote%5DI think US baseball needs to incorporate whistles.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I think US baseball needs to incorporate whistles.[/quote]Also throwing back and forth between catcher and third base while the opposing team chants. That’s something we DEFINITELY need.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]They were too busy forming one in Finland. Here’s a look at the new Finnish Academy:
[/quote]Damn, those kids can play.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Damn, those kids can play.[/quote]The future is bright for this organization. All the other teams are scouting Dominicans and Venezuelans and can only pay them so much now. There are a lot of great Finnish players older than 23 just waiting to help the Cubs win a championship.
mb21Quote Reply
According to Heyman, the Cubs are open to dealing Wells in the right deal. I mean, obviously they are (correctly, I think) open to dealing almost anybody in the right deal, it’s just strange that they’d deal pitchers when that is clearly an area of need. I assume they would target better/younger/cheaper pitchers in return.
work sucksQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Also throwing back and forth between catcher and third base while the opposing team chants. That’s something we DEFINITELY need.[/quote]That’s actually 1st base. 3rd base is just behind 1st. 2nd base is where we have 1st base. We’ve been doing it wrong for all these years.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=work sucks]According to Heyman, the Cubs are open to dealing Wells in the right deal. I mean, obviously they are (correctly, I think) open to dealing almost anybody in the right deal, it’s just strange that they’d deal pitchers when that is clearly an area of need. I assume they would target better/younger/cheaper pitchers in return.[/quote]I think they’re willing to trade anybody on the roster including Starlin Castro in the right deal.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think they’re willing to trade anybody on the roster including Starlin Castro in the right deal.[/quote]
I’m holding out hope for a Longoria for Castro straight up swap
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I’m holding out hope for a Longoria for Castro straight up swap[/quote]3-team trade with the Rays and Giants that get the Cubs Lincecum and Longoria with both teams paying their salaries.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]Also throwing back and forth between catcher and third base while the opposing team chants. That’s something we DEFINITELY need.[/quote]The Cubs have already incorporated this several times this past season during rundown attempts.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]
[/quote]Actually, that’s kind of cool. Easier to get on base, but more difficult to score.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]3-team trade with the Rays and Giants that get the Cubs Lincecum and Longoria with both teams paying their salaries.[/quote]Force trade —-> on
/video game’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
I don’t really get it either, but then again I’m almost always at a loss to understand how to value prospects.
Either way, it’s not THAT hard to understand the different judgment on these 2, after all Vitters has played a quite successful full season of AA in 2011 (.283/.322/.448) while Lake has played only a partial season in AA, in whichw his BA dropped from .315 to .248 during the transition.
While it’s perfectly possible he’ll adapt and bounce back, he has yet to prove he can do it. Vitters already did that, so he’s obviously “more ready” for the big leagues.
That being sad, I don’t like either of them too much, players who can’t take a walk just suck, which leads to their OBPs being kinda replacement levelish.
DamageControlFreakQuote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]
[/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=work sucks]According to Heyman, the Cubs are open to dealing Wells in the right deal. I mean, obviously they are (correctly, I think) open to dealing almost anybody in the right deal, it’s just strange that they’d deal pitchers when that is clearly an area of need. I assume they would target better/younger/cheaper pitchers in return.[/quote]It reminds me of Beane’s approach with Haren, Hudson, Zito, Mulder, Harden. Deal them right before you have to start seriously paying them. Obviously the A’s aren’t the only team to do that, but it seems like now is the perfect time to deal Garza. Wells is expendable regardless, but I don’t know that Garza’s perceived value will ever be any higher.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Speaking of Garza…
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/11/28/1128-matt-garzas-availability/
Muskat confirms what a couple other guys have been tweeting.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Other than the fact that there is an ice hockey team in fucking Nashville, can anyone else figure out what is wrong with this headline?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That it should be “alright” or that using kids and predators in the same headline is all wrong?
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]That it should be “alright” or that using kids and predators in the same headline is all wrong?[/quote]Correct x (2 or 288)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Correct x (2 or 288)[/quote]Actually, according to most style guides, “Alright” is still a misspelling of “all right.” But “alright” is gaining acceptance.
binkyQuote Reply
Not that this will make any sense to you, but
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Actually, according to most style guides, “Alright” is still a misspelling of “all right.” But “alright” is gaining acceptance.[/quote]Most style guides, including the A.P. Guide. So, this usage is alright.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Most style guides, including the A.P. Guide. So, this usage is alright.[/quote]Style guides are such impediments to linguistic progress.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Style guides are such impediments to linguistic progress.[/quote]Whe tchood juyct tzpell hou’eevar wey waant.
No, they tend to skew toward a conservative interpretation of the language, but newspapers tend to skew older, so it all works out.
binkyQuote Reply
(dying laughing) at BACON. Hadn’t seen that one before. But does that include foul balls, or is it just BIP+HR? .400 and .360 seem sky-high considering the max BABIP for major leaguers is like .350 and BACONs should be lower if you count fouls…
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=DamageControlFreak]I don’t really get it either, but then again I’m almost always at a loss to understand how to value prospects.
Either way, it’s not THAT hard to understand the different judgment on these 2, after all Vitters has played a quite successful full season of AA in 2011 (.283/.322/.448) while Lake has played only a partial season in AA, in whichw his BA dropped from .315 to .248 during the transition.
While it’s perfectly possible he’ll adapt and bounce back, he has yet to prove he can do it. Vitters already did that, so he’s obviously “more ready” for the big leagues.
That being sad, I don’t like either of them too much, players who can’t take a walk just suck, which leads to their OBPs being kinda replacement levelish.[/quote]I agree with you here for the most part. I think judging them based on small samples rather than the large one is a bit shortsighted, but I agree that’s likely the reason one is considered more legitimate than the other.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415](dying laughing) at BACON. Hadn’t seen that one before. But does that include foul balls, or is it just BIP+HR? .400 and .360 seem sky-high considering the max BABIP for major leaguers is like .350 and BACONs should be lower if you count fouls…[/quote]Colin Wyers came up with BACON and SLGCON back when he was writing for MVN’s Statspeak blog. It doesn’t include foul balls because they aren’t in play. At-bats – BB – HBP – K
The difference between that and BABIP is that home runs are included. BABIP doesn’t consider a HR in play.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Colin Wyers came up with BACON and SLGCON back when he was writing for MVN’s Statspeak blog. It doesn’t include foul balls because they aren’t in play. At-bats – BB – HBP – K
The difference between that and BABIP is that home runs are included. BABIP doesn’t consider a HR in play.[/quote]Got it, suspected as much. .400 and .360 still sound pretty high to me. I assume the reason scouts like Vitters is that they see him do that and think “if this guy can just figure out when to do that, he has a huge upside”. It’s just taking everybody a while to notice that subordinate clause.
When I read this, I was both impressed by how thorough these guys are in most respects and amazed that there is still no place to mention patience in the standard scouting report. If you ask me, “eye” should certainly be considered a sixth tool by now.
fang2415Quote Reply
I’ve lost track of what the 5 tools are these days. Is it average, power, speed, defense, arm?
I’d replace hitting for average with getting on base and call it good enough. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
mmm… bacon.
WaLiQuote Reply
Can’t remember if I posted this link or not, but here’s the old Statspeak (it went down when MVN shutdown): http://statspeakmvn.wordpress.com/
Here’s CW’s article I was talking about: http://statspeakmvn.wordpress.com/2009/02/19/bringing_home_the_bacon/
mb21Quote Reply
I remember I once went to the Wikipedia page for bacon and it was locked. I wondered why so I checked the history and saw that someone had changed it so that the first sentence read “Bacon is a smoked or cured meat taken from the back or belly of a pig and is awesome.” Then somebody else had just replaced the whole page with “I LOOOOOOOOOOOOVE BACON!” (dying laughing).
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’ve lost track of what the 5 tools are these days. Is it average, power, speed, defense, arm?
I’d replace hitting for average with getting on base and call it good enough. (dying laughing)[/quote]Yep. I’m guessing some scouts might roll eye into batting, but IMO the ability to judge pitches is important enough that it should be in there on its own. Also I guess BIP-style hitting is a skill so it makes sense to leave it in, but you’re doomed if you’re not evaluating patience somehow.
I assume this is something that smart people like the Superfriends can do with their scouts. As they point out, scouts can be a really valuable instrument, but they better be looking for shit that matters.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]Whe tchood juyct tzpell hou’eevar wey waant.
No, they tend to skew toward a conservative interpretation of the language, but newspapers tend to skew older, so it all works out.[/quote]In issues of spelling, I default to Merriam-Webster. They’re much more progressive. Even they are too slow to adapt to contemporary usage, but they greatly outpace the glacial response of style guides.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]In issues of spelling, I default to Merriam-Webster. They’re much more progressive. Even they are too slow to adapt to contemporary usage, but they greatly outpace the glacial response of style guides.[/quote]That’s because Merriam-Webster strives to be descriptive of the language. I’m not advocating any particular style, I’m just saying that going by A.P. style, “All right” is correct, “Alright” is incorrect. A lot of it is expectation. If a newspaper editor gets a million “correction” letters every time he allows an “Alright” into his paper, each four pages long and filled with admonishments of the sad state of spelling and grammar in American culture, he’s probably just going to use “all right” to avoid getting hassled. You want the reader to think about language as little as possible, so you make the choice that you think will be least abrasive for the reader, hence the style guides to make things consistent.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Yep. I’m guessing some scouts might roll eye into batting, but IMO the ability to judge pitches is important enough that it should be in there on its own. Also I guess BIP-style hitting is a skill so it makes sense to leave it in, but you’re doomed if you’re not evaluating patience somehow.
I assume this is something that smart people like the Superfriends can do with their scouts. As they point out, scouts can be a really valuable instrument, but they better be looking for shit that matters.[/quote]I think the stats tell you as much as you’re going to know about a batter’s eye. A scout may be able to judge by facial expressions and body language if a hitter thinks a ball called a strike is really a strike or not, but part of that will be the scout being able to decide if the pitch was really in the zone or not, and then based on that whether the hitter was justified. The point is, that’s a lot of room for error. The hitter’s OBP, contact on balls that are strikes, walk rates, etc. probably tell you as much about his understanding of the strike zone as anything ever will. Scouts can’t really read minds.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I think the stats tell you as much as you’re going to know about a batter’s eye. A scout may be able to judge by facial expressions and body language if a hitter thinks a ball called a strike is really a strike or not, but part of that will be the scout being able to decide if the pitch was really in the zone or not, and then based on that whether the hitter was justified. The point is, that’s a lot of room for error. The hitter’s OBP, contact on balls that are strikes, walk rates, etc. probably tell you as much about his understanding of the strike zone as anything ever will. Scouts can’t really read minds.[/quote]They do have Pitchf/x in minor league ballparks now, right? So if the scouts really wanted to do their homework they could look at the charts and line them up with facial expressions and body language.
I think the stats folk would probably do that anyway so the scouts don’t have to. I assume that’s how they figure out O-Swing% and Z-Swing% is with someone actually running a program or manually going through each pitch to see whether the guy swung or not.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Also…This reminds me that I need to put bacon on the shopping list. Thankfully baseball doesn’t yet use LARD or DONUT as acronyms 😛
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]They do have Pitchf/x in minor league ballparks now, right? So if the scouts really wanted to do their homework they could look at the charts and line them up with facial expressions and body language.
I think the stats folk would probably do that anyway so the scouts don’t have to. I assume that’s how they figure out O-Swing% and Z-Swing% is with someone actually running a program or manually going through each pitch to see whether the guy swung or not.[/quote]Well, not all guys have revealing body language or facial expression. Some guys might overreact in the moment, even if they knew they just got fooled by a good pitch, because they WANTED it to be outside instead of on the corner. I don’t think it’s a fair way to judge a player’s ability.
binkyQuote Reply
I think MB’s idea of replacing Average with OBP is the best you can do. High school is probably a bigger challenge here. Scouts probably have to or need to keep score at high school games and even some college games. Who knows how accurate the “official” score keepers are or how willing they are to share the score sheets. I’m sure bigger schools are more vigilant about that, just for that reason, though. i would think the things the scout could tell you would be if, over a large sample size, if the player really “earned” his average and stuff like that. I really don’t know. Poise, confidence stealing base, maybe. Jumps on balls hit toward him. Instinctual details captured in the stats, but not specifically parsed out.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I used to think the same thing and then I went through the top 10s on BA one year and a surprisingly large percentage of the players were Hispanic. I didn’t read the scouting reports so it wouldn’t surprise me if they were relatively high, but had criticism that American born players didn’t.[/quote]
interesting. would have to judge the lists in comparison to population of the players for a quick and dirty estimate.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I think MB’s idea of replacing Average with OBP is the best you can do. High school is probably a bigger challenge here. Scouts probably have to or need to keep score at high school games and even some college games. Who knows how accurate the “official” score keepers are or how willing they are to share the score sheets. I’m sure bigger schools are more vigilant about that, just for that reason, though. i would think the things the scout could tell you would be if, over a large sample size, if the player really “earned” his average and stuff like that. I really don’t know. Poise, confidence stealing base, maybe. Jumps on balls hit toward him. Instinctual details captured in the stats, but not specifically parsed out.[/quote]
I like the idea of including plate eye, but i don’t think you can get rid of average. i think that scouts weigh that pretty heavily in projection terms.
GWQuote Reply
So, am I correct that I can NOT purchase a 2012 season MLB.TV package as a Xmas gift? I only see an option for 2011 recap expiring on 4/3/12.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]So, am I correct that I can NOT purchase a 2012 season MLB.TV package as a Xmas gift? I only see an option for 2011 recap expiring on 4/3/12.[/quote]Aisley, I told you that a gift wasn’t necessary. I was happy to call the clinic for you to arrange for the dislodgement.
Suburban kid 22Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]I like the idea of including plate eye, but i don’t think you can get rid of average. i think that scouts weigh that pretty heavily in projection terms.[/quote]Isn’t ‘plate eye’ Vogelbach’s primary skill?
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]Isn’t ‘plate eye’ Vogelbach’s primary skill?[/quote]That may be a secondary skill. I seem to recall that he was pretty good at killing baseballs.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid 22]Aisley, I told you that a gift wasn’t necessary. I was happy to call the clinic for you to arrange for the dislodgement.[/quote]
I know, but I was raised to show appreciation for those who help me out of situations where I have things uncomfortably crammed into tight places.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]Isn’t ‘plate eye’ Vogelbach’s primary skill?[/quote]That and hitting the ball 800 miles in one swing.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]interesting. would have to judge the lists in comparison to population of the players for a quick and dirty estimate.[/quote]Yeah, that was just something I wasn’t willing to invest the time in doing. I don’t even remember why I looked through the lists, but I was shocked at how many of the top 10s were Hispanic. I’ll go through the ones BA has for 2012 and post them here.
mb21Quote Reply
Apparently, trying to make a C-minus fat joke while on the phone with the electric company doesn’t work all that well. For the record, PG&E has a mind-blowingly absurd, complicated, and useless automated customer service system.
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]I like the idea of including plate eye, but i don’t think you can get rid of average. i think that scouts weigh that pretty heavily in projection terms.[/quote]I just don’t know how you measure it without combing through hours of tape as RC suggested. Maybe scouts give a gut reaction to how good their plate discipline is, then they do a more thorough assessment for players they are really interested in. You gotta remember, not every player will have games that are filmed, though, or filmed from an angle that allows a proper assessment of their discipline. Not every player is playing in the NCAA championship or whatever. Or maybe they are and I’m naive.
binkyQuote Reply
Then I go over and look at the DBacks top 10 and not one Hispanic. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]Apparently, trying to make a C-minus fat joke while on the phone with the electric company doesn’t work all that well. For the record, PG&E has a mind-blowingly absurd, complicated, and useless automated customer service system.[/quote]What company doesn’t have that ridiculously bullshit automated customer service these days? Unreal.
mb21Quote Reply
3 in the Cardinals and 3 in the Pirates system.
mb21Quote Reply
2 in the Brewers and 1 in the Astros system.
mb21Quote Reply
2 in the Reds and 3 in the Cubs systems.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]What company doesn’t have that ridiculously bullshit automated customer service these days? Unreal.[/quote]I’m sorry, I didn’t catch that. Can you repeat it, please?
uncle daveQuote Reply
0 in the Nationals and 4 in the Mets.
mb21Quote Reply
3 in the Phillies. Makes me wonder if I was remembering incorrectly. I’ll look into that later.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]I’m sorry, I didn’t catch that. Can you repeat it, please?[/quote]After awhile this is what I usually get: “If you’re going to talk to me that way, I’m going to hang up.”
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]I’m sorry, I didn’t catch that. Can you repeat it, please?[/quote]I love the ones you have to talk to when you’re at work and trying to be discreet. “MY SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER IS FOUR—-!”
binkyQuote Reply
I don’t deal with customer service people well on the phone. The only time I’m calling them is when they’re not doing their job and it pisses me off. It would be like a mailman not delivering my mail. Do your fucking jobs and I won’t have to call. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]What company doesn’t have that ridiculously bullshit automated customer service these days? Unreal.[/quote]Which is weird, because everyone pretty much has the internet now, so you usually are only calling because you’ve exhausted the automated means and need further guidance. I’m pretty sure it’s so old people can feel like they have a friend.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t deal with customer service people well on the phone. The only time I’m calling them is when they’re not doing their job and it pisses me off. It would be like a mailman not delivering my mail. Do your fucking jobs and I won’t have to call. (dying laughing)[/quote]I’m glad I don’t work help lines. I did my telemarketing tour of duty out of college. NEVER FORGET!
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]After awhile this is what I usually get: “If you’re going to talk to me that way, I’m going to hang up.”[/quote]Is this a real person or the automated system? I’ve never had that happen to me before. Maybe I need to drop more F-bombs to trigger their “goodbye” subroutine (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is this a real person or the automated system? I’ve never had that happen to me before. Maybe I need to drop more F-bombs to trigger their “goodbye” subroutine (dying laughing)[/quote]Apparently the new iPhone voice recognition thing reacts to being insulted and hassled like that. Its responses are pretty level-headed and dull, tho.
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Which is weird, because everyone pretty much has the internet now, so you usually are only calling because you’ve exhausted the automated means and need further guidance. I’m pretty sure it’s so old people can feel like they have a friend.[/quote]NPR did a bit a while back where they conferenced in two systems and had them try to talk with each other. I’m not sure it was real, but it was pretty entertaining.
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Yeah, that was just something I wasn’t willing to invest the time in doing. I don’t even remember why I looked through the lists, but I was shocked at how many of the top 10s were Hispanic. I’ll go through the ones BA has for 2012 and post them here.[/quote]
(dying laughing). yeah, me neither.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]Apparently the new iPhone voice recognition thing reacts to being insulted and hassled like that. Its responses are pretty level-headed and dull, tho.[/quote]
Kind of like a W.I.F.E. then.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is this a real person or the automated system? I’ve never had that happen to me before. Maybe I need to drop more F-bombs to trigger their “goodbye” subroutine (dying laughing)[/quote]A real person. By the time I get an actual living person on the phone I’m usually pissed off and if I don’t get anywhere within a minute I’m not happy.
mb21Quote Reply
who mans the customer service line for ovblog?
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW](dying laughing). yeah, me neither.[/quote]I think I read somewhere that it was close to 35% or higher in the minor leagues. The Hispanic percentage at the big league level was 28% and it’s much higher in the minors. It’s easy to say that 3 to 4 of the top 10 should be Hispanic, but what’s not clear to me is what that 35%ish is coming from. Does it include the Summer Leagues? If it does then the percentage in A ball through AAA is significantly lower than 35%.
I’ve read the BA Prospect Handbooks for the last 7 to 8 years and if there’s one thing that has stood out to me it’s that so many of the Hispanic players are referred to as athletic. I’d easily say that the scouts view the Hispanics as more athletic than the average white guy. Whether or not this true is another issue (I suspect there’s some truth to it, but not as much as the scouts think). Remember, Hispanics are signed without much playing experience and they’re signed at such a young age that big fatties aren’t going to be signed. They’ll be looking for toolsy players in the middle of the field so I think there is some truth to it.
The other thing that has stood out to me is that athletic players are more highly rated than they should be. I say that based on my own scale, which is inferior to BA’s, but I think so highly of myself that I have a scale. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]who mans the customer service line for ovblog?[/quote]
I’m pretty sure it’s this guy
Suburban kid 22Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]who mans the customer service line for ovblog?[/quote]
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid 22]I’m pretty sure it’s this guy
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]Isn’t ‘plate eye’ Vogelbach’s primary skill?[/quote]That and rib-eye
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Also…This reminds me that I need to put bacon on the shopping list. Thankfully baseball doesn’t yet use LARD or DONUT as acronyms :-P[/quote]
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
Matt Murton news:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/28/report-matt-murton-to-remain-in-japan/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]who mans the customer service line for ovblog?[/quote]
The Executive Chairman
BerseliusQuote Reply
It must be tough having all those minor league players weighing themselves in your bathroom.
/rimshot
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Matt Murton news:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/28/report-matt-murton-to-remain-in-japan/%5B/quote%5DNow where will the Cubs find young talent?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Now where will the Cubs find young talent?[/quote]
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]It must be tough having all those minor league players weighing themselves in your bathroom.
/rimshot[/quote]My wife thinks it’s very odd. She just doesn’t understand.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]Now where will the Cubs find young talent?[/quote]According to Bruce Levine, Mitch Moreland is an emerging left handed power hitter who the Cubs might target for Matt Garza. Moreland is only 26. And he has a career .427 slugging percentage in almost 700 plate appearances. He’s been worth .3 WAR. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]According to Bruce Levine, Mitch Moreland is an emerging left handed power hitter who the Cubs might target for Matt Garza. Moreland is only 26. And he has a career .427 slugging percentage in almost 700 plate appearances. He’s been worth .3 WAR. (dying laughing)[/quote]
26? He’s practically a baby.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think you want scouts watching how a kid judges pitches for the same reasons you want him judging a kid’s power.
A good scout should be able to watch four or five PAs and tell you whether a kid can work counts, whether he can wait for his pitch instead of just going after every strike, whether he’s missing on close pitches or nowhere near, whether any shortcomings in his eye are likely to be fixed with a small mechanical correction or not: basically, the same kind of stuff they do for the other five tools.
Scouting is about projecting the future based on very small sample sizes rather than waiting to see how somebody does after two years of elite competition. With established players you can sit around and read the stats like we do, but for judging raw talent quickly and in weird environments like HS or low minors, scouts can provide extremely valuable information about what they look at. And if the Superfriends don’t have them looking at pitch selection already, they damn well ought to, toot
blansweet.fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]interesting. would have to judge the lists in comparison to population of the players for a quick and dirty estimate.[/quote]Racist.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=uncle dave]NPR did a bit a while back where they conferenced in two systems and had them try to talk with each other. I’m not sure it was real, but it was pretty entertaining.[/quote]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-14843549
(dying laughing)
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]I think you want scouts watching how a kid judges pitches for the same reasons you want him judging a kid’s power.
[/quote]By “kid” of course, I mean anyone under the age of 32. The Cubs should definitely send a team of scouts down to Texas to check out this Moreland kid.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]By “kid” of course, I mean anyone under the age of 32. The Cubs should definitely send a team of scouts down to Texas to check out this Moreland kid.[/quote]And by “Moreland kid” of course, I mean Keith.
Okay, time for me to stop having the blog to myself…
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]And by “Moreland kid” of course, I mean Keith.
Okay, time for me to stop having the blog to myself…[/quote]Always making it about you…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Can’t resist this one:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-15932748
fang2415Quote Reply
Cubs also have interest in David DeJesus. Heard from CSN
RodrigoQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo]Cubs also have interest in David DeJesus. Heard from CSN[/quote]We could all use a little more (De)Jesus in our lives.
/evangelist’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]And by “Moreland kid” of course, I mean Keith.
Okay, time for me to stop having the blog to myself…[/quote]Cubs are in a fortunate position with this Keith Moreland kid. He’s already working for WGN, he’s older than 23 so they can sign him for whatever they want, and he’s got a bright future ahead of him.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]We could all use a little more (De)Jesus in our lives.
/evangelist’d[/quote]
Maybe it’s Mark (De)DeRosa
RodrigoQuote Reply
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-15923438
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-15923438[/quote]Ha! Urethra moment.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Funny videos on the Beeb today.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-15926195
Which is basically just a real-life version of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO2oCDSH-SU
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo]Cubs also have interest in David DeJesus. Heard from CSN[/quote]Why not just go all-out and see if you can get Ivan instead? Then with him and Moreland, you get two top prospects at once!
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Why not just go all-out and see if you can get Ivan instead? Then with him and Moreland, you get two top prospects at once![/quote]With the right offer you might get Shawon Dunston Sr. to come play. Or if you’re really lucky, Wayne Gretzky.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]With the right offer you might get Shawon Dunston Sr. to come play. Or if you’re really lucky, Wayne Gretzky.[/quote]
What’s the current exchange rate for goals/assists to HR/RBI?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]What’s the current exchange rate for goals/assists to HR/RBI?[/quote]50/50
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]50/50[/quote]Wayne Gretzky could be bigger than Sadaharu Oh.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://crave.cnet.co.uk/gadgets/man-arrested-at-large-hadron-collider-claims-hes-from-the-future-49305387/
ACTQuote Reply
Not sure if this is tripe or agent crap, but apparently Rosenthal thinks the Cubs are legitimately pursuing Pujols.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Albert-Pujols-Prince-Fielder-Chicago-Cubs-pursuing-star-free-agents-112811
I can see Fielder contract being bad in 5 years. I’d wager a Pujols deal could also be bad in about the same time frame. The idea obviously then would be to get the shorter, cheaper deal. However Pujols is better than Prince, both as a hitter and on defense. Its just a higher ceiling from which to fall. Assuming he’s really 31, I can see him being great until he’s 38; maybe not as good as he is now, but an all-star.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Not sure if this is tripe or agent crap, but apparently Rosenthal thinks the Cubs are legitimately pursuing Pujols.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Albert-Pujols-Prince-Fielder-Chicago-Cubs-pursuing-star-free-agents-112811
I can see Fielder contract being bad in 5 years. I’d wager a Pujols deal could also be bad in about the same time frame. The idea obviously then would be to get the shorter, cheaper deal. However Pujols is better than Prince, both as a hitter and on defense. Its just a higher ceiling from which to fall. Assuming he’s really 31, I can see him being great until he’s 38; maybe not as good as he is now, but an all-star.[/quote]
Thanks, Nate.
new post: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/cubs-in-on-pujols-and-fielder.html
BerseliusQuote Reply