Some Thoughts On Ryan Dempster

In News And Rumors by dmick89Leave a Comment

ryandempsterRyan Dempster‘s April was just horrible. In his first start he allowed 6 runs and then in two others he allowed 7 runs. Dempster took over the role that Carlos Zambrano had for several years in which he was the opening day starter and had a bad April. In 31 April innings he allowed 42 hits, walked 16, hit 1 batter and 1 reached on an error. That’s 60 baserunners. 34 of them scored. His BABIP was only .351, but that was in large part thanks to the 9 home runs he allowed. This month was so bad that we knew entering May that Dempster was unlikely to bring his ERA below 4 by season’s end. It was so bad it made the typical Zambrano April look more like a Greg Maddux Cy Young season.

Toward the end of April I wrote that there was nothing wrong with Ryan Dempster. I wrote that just two days before the shortest start of Dempster’s career on April 28th. I took some shit for that as I should have, but nothing changed. There was still nothing wrong with him. And in May, Dempster turned it around. He threw 38 innings, allowed 36 hits, walked 9, and struckout 33. He allowed only 13.

Since the first of May, Dempster has thrown 165.2 innings, allowed 161 hits, walked 62 and struckout 155. He’s also given up 12 home runs, which was 3 more than in April and he’s thrown more than 130 innings more. His ERA since then is 3.59, which is more in line with previous years when you factor in the league average.

What has been interesting to me has been all the complaints about Ryan Dempster. Some of which have absolutely nothing to do with his performance. I’ve made it very clear over the years that the only thing I care about is performance. I don’t care if the guy is an asshole or an all-time meanie. I don’t care what he says and I sure as hell don’t care what the Chicago sportswriters have to say. I don’t care if he’s a genius or illiterate. I don’t care if he’s heterosexual or homosexual. I don’t care if he’s turned on by 75 year olds or 25 year olds. I don’t care if he likes humans or cats as his sexual partner. I don’t care if he’s the best looking guy on the planet or so damn ugly I can barely stand to look at him. I don’t care if he’s the most well-mannered individual or someone who picks his nose and wipes his ass with fingers in plain view.

I don’t like these guys for what they say or don’t say. I don’t like them for how they dress or in all honesty how they even behave away from the field. I don’t know them, I will never know them and I’m pretty sure of the 25 guys on an active MLB roster, 24 of them are people I would wish I had never met. I don’t care if they’re the most clean person around or if they piss on their hands.

I’m not saying that you should be like that. Like whatever you want. Dislike whatever you want. I don’t really care about that either. What I do care about and what is the only important thing when it comes to evaluating the performance is the actual performance. That’s it. If you want to say Carlos Zambrano is an asshole and delusional, go for it. If you think Zambrano is batshit insane, say it. Or don’t. Doesn’t matter. Just don’t tell me that he sucks at baseball because of these things. None of those things has a damn thing to do with his performance and I’m pretty sure every baseball fan knows it.

I think this has happened to Ryan Dempster to some degree. His willingness or even eagerness to stand in front of a microphone has left a sour taste the mouths of many. It’s a legitimate complaint, though I think the complaint is more with the media than with Dempster. When Ryan Theriot stood in front of the microphone you couldn’t help but notice it was one of the worst players on the team that was often representing them. That doesn’t affect Theriot’s performance, but it was frustrating. With Ryan Dempster though, he’s been one of the best players on the team for several years now. Is there anything all that strange about one of the better players on the team often talking to the media? Maybe he says dumb things and isn’t funny and so on and so forth. I won’t argue with that because I couldn’t care less.

The problem is when those opinions affect the way we view the performance of that player. I’ve not seen anyone around here make this mistake, but I have seen it plenty of other places. We saw the same thing happen with Zambrano. When he was a really good pitcher there weren’t all that many complaints. When he clearly began to decline, people started highlighting his personal issues on an hourly basis. These issues were then used as examples of why the Cubs needed to get rid of him. For many of these people, that was all that mattered and the performance was secondary. We’re starting to see it with Dempster though the personal issues aren’t really personal issues. I’ve never heard anybody question Dempster’s leadership or likability.

Dempster has struggled this year and we’ve heard a lot more about how not funny he is. This has become supporting evidence to Dempster’s down season. Except it’s not supporting evidence. It’s not evidence of anything other than Dempster not being funny. It’s not evidence of him being unlikable. It’s not evidence of him not being a team leader. It’s not evidence of his ability to parent, drive a car, make a sandwich or take a dump either. His funniness is not like throwing strikes. One of them will have a direct impact on his performance while the other has none whatsoever.

Although Dempster has struggled when we look at the runs he’s allowed, many stats show he’s pitched about the same as he has in recent years. Runs allowed is influenced by the defense, sequencing and luck. When we look at single season stats we mostly care about the results. rWAR looks at runs allowed and then gives credit to the pitcher for team defense. fWAR ignores sequencing, BABIP and some of the luck. rWAR has Dempster with 1.4 while fWAR has him with 3.0.

Defense is obviously important in run prevention. The same pitcher could allow many more or fewer runs with a different defense behind him. This has to be accounted for and is by bother WAR methods. Sequencing is also important. Imagine two pitchers who allowed in one inning 2 hits (double and a single), a walk, a stolen base, struckout two and a flyout. Say it goes something like this for each pitcher:

Pitcher A: K, FO, 2B, BB, 1B, SB, K
Pitcher B: 1B, BB, 2B, SB, FO, K, K

The two pitchers had identical innings. The only difference was the sequence of those events. Pitcher A would have allowed 1 run and stranded 2 runners. Pitcher B would have allowed 3 runs and stranded no runners. The FO would have been a sac fly for Pitcher B whereas it was just any other out for Pitcher A. Two identical events here resulting in two entirely different results. That’s sequencing. Over time there’s no reason to think sequencing will have as big an impact as it had in that one inning. It mostly becomes meaningless in large samples.

To get an idea how big an impact sequencing can make in a single season, take a look at Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Batters hit .240/.255/.363 against Lee and they hit .245/.271/.373 vs Halladay. Lee allowed 3.56 runs per 9 innings. Halladay allowed 2.66 runs per 9. Although Lee had a slight edge when it came to how the batters performed against him at the plate compared to Halladay, he allowed nearly 1 full run per 9 innings. The difference is sequencing. With runner in scoring position, Halladay allowed only a .483 OPS. Lee allowed a .662 OPS. With men on base Halladay allowed a .564 OPS while it was .722 for Lee. When Halladay got runners on base, he pitched much better than Lee did. The result was 1 run per 9 inning difference. There’s not much skill in pitching with runners on base or the bases empty so there’s no reason to expect the huge difference to continue.

rWAR doesn’t really care about this. Halladay had 7.0 rWAR while Lee had 4.3 rWAR. fWAR ignores sequencing so it’s not surprising to find that Lee has 7.1 fWAR compared to Halladay’s 6.6.

Dempster has allowed an .873 OPS with RISP, which is 100 points higher than his overall average this year. That largely explains the difference between Dempster’s rWAR and fWAR right there. Much of pitching independent stats have been right in line with what he’s done in recent years and about what expected from him, but because he’s pitched so poorly with RISP, the results have been much worse. In 2008 when Dempster allowed fewer runs than expected, it can also be explained by sequencing. With RISP that year he allowed only a .409 OPS and a .440 OPS with men on.

Overall, Dempster has pitched a bit worse than previous years, but he’s in his 30s so who didn’t see that coming? The biggest issue has been sequencing. In 2011 it has killed him and in 2008 it helped him significantly. He’s much the same pitcher he was then, with a little age-related regression of course, but defense and sequencing have resulted in many more runs allowed.


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  1. ACT

    Speaking of weird sequencing, Alex Rodriguez has a negative WPA this year. For once, A-Rod haters have a “sophisticated” stat to back their case.

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  2. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    Boston starting poorly again. I’m unsure how to root for this AL WC. I’m inclined to pull for TB, but I just don’t want NYY or PHL to win the WS, and despite their struggles, I think Boston has the best chance to beat both. I would love the Cubs to hire Friedman or Epstein, but I’m not sure the way this season ends will effect their ability to do either.

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  3. Rice Cube

    The start on Friday was troublesome because of all the walks he issued, and it was also troubling that online fans were railing on him because of it despite giving up just one run. I’d say he was pretty lucky. Since he has a player option I’m about 90% sure he exercises it and I don’t mind having Dempster for another year especially if they’re going to dump Z anyway. Always nice to have somebody who can eat 200 innings.

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  4. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]Not if John Lackey can help it.[/quote]

    Pittsburgh needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the Cubs in the draft race. Come on, Pirates!

    Playing the Padres head-to-head in the last series should help too.

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  5. mb21

    Yeah, Nate, I don’t think how this season affects whether Friedman or Theo would be available, but I’ve thought of the same thing. Is it best to have the Red Sox flame out? Is it better to have the Rays not reach the postseason? Probably doesn’t matter one bit, I’ve thought about it.

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  6. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Yeah, Nate, I don’t think how this season affects whether Friedman or Theo would be available, but I’ve thought of the same thing. Is it best to have the Red Sox flame out? Is it better to have the Rays not reach the postseason? Probably doesn’t matter one bit, I’ve thought about it.[/quote]It wouldn’t affect the hiring, but I’m thinking a subset of Cubs fans may get upset that Ricketts hired a GM who either a) orchestrated an epic collapse (Epstein) or 2) couldn’t field a competitive enough team despite being “smart” (Friedman)

    I’d actually be happy with either guy.

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  7. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]Yeah, Nate, I don’t think how this season affects whether Friedman or Theo would be available, but I’ve thought of the same thing. Is it best to have the Red Sox flame out? Is it better to have the Rays not reach the postseason? Probably doesn’t matter one bit, I’ve thought about it.[/quote]
    I’m rooting for a three team tie between them and the Angels. Whoever makes it through the tiebreakers is going to feel like they lost anyway (dying laughing).

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  8. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]What’s a WOWY?[/quote]With or Without You. It’s like a controlled scientific experiment in which you look at what happens when one variable changes. For instance, for defense, you can compare how many plays are made at shortstop when one shortstop is playing verses other shortstops.

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  9. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]With or Without You. It’s like a controlled scientific experiment in which you look at what happens when one variable changes. For instance, for defense, you can compare how many plays are made at shortstop when one shortstop is playing verses other shortstops.[/quote]Cool, thanks. How very U2.

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  10. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]On a related note to this post, is there any reason to be concerned about Randy Wells?[/quote]I’m going to take a look at that, but my lying eyes tell me there is plenty to be concerned about.

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  11. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GBTS]Rays are in good shape. That Red Sox/Yankees night cap is going to be huge.[/quote]I saw the replay of Zobrist’s ITPHR and I thought he had killed Jose Bautista. Glad Bautista wasn’t seriously hurt, looked like he got the wind knocked out of him.

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  12. Rice Cube

    I was hoping for a Soto grand slam but I guess the Cubs won’t be getting that opportunity this season…over 162 games you’d think they’d luck into a grand slam.

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  13. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Somehow, 100 BB’s just isn’t a very exciting milestone.[/quote]I agree with this, but it’s a rare event for the Cubs.

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  14. mb21

    Player BB Year PA
    Jimmy Sheckard 147 1911 704
    Jimmy Sheckard 122 1912 660
    Sammy Sosa 116 2001 711
    Richie Ashburn 116 1960 672
    Cap Anson 113 1890 623
    Johnny Evers 108 1910 556
    Hack Wilson 105 1930 709
    Sammy Sosa 103 2002 666
    Gary Matthews 103 1984 608
    George Gore 102 1886 546
    Woody English 100 1930 755
    Stan Hack 99 1945 702
    Stan Hack 99 1941 694
    Carlos Pena 97 2011 594
    Jimmy Slagle 97 1905 681
    Ron Santo 96 1969 687
    Ron Santo 96 1968 682
    Ron Santo 96 1967 697
    Mark Grace 95 2000 621
    Ron Santo 95 1966 672
    Stan Hack 94 1942 657
    Stan Hack 94 1938 707
    Vic Saier 94 1914 658
    Kosuke Fukudome 93 2009 603
    Mark Grace 93 1998 698
    Player BB Year PA
    Jim Hickman 93 1970 613
    Bill Nicholson 93 1944 686
    Rick Monday 92 1973 651
    Ron Santo 92 1970 655
    Bill Nicholson 92 1945 660
    Eddie Stanky 92 1943 616
    Sammy Sosa 91 2000 705
    Stan Hack 89 1936 666
    Mark Grace 88 1997 654
    Andre Thornton 88 1975 473
    Ron Santo 88 1965 704
    Phil Cavarretta 88 1946 602
    Ryne Sandberg 87 1991 684
    Bill Nicholson 87 1947 580
    Augie Galan 87 1935 748
    Rogers Hornsby 87 1929 712
    Ron Santo 86 1964 686
    Cap Anson 86 1889 609
    Derrek Lee 85 2005 691
    Mark Grace 83 1999 688
    Rick Monday 83 1975 583
    Stan Hack 83 1946 409
    Stan Hack 83 1937 678
    Jimmy Sheckard 83 1910 626
    King Kelly 83 1886 534
    Player BB Year PA
    Stan Hack 82 1943 630
    Bill Nicholson 82 1941 617
    George Van Haltren 82 1889 630
    Kosuke Fukudome 81 2008 590
    Steve Ontiveros 81 1977 636
    Bill Nicholson 81 1948 581
    Phil Cavarretta 81 1945 586
    Jimmy Slagle 81 1903 643
    Mark Grace 80 1989 596
    Bobby Murcer 80 1978 585
    Bobby Murcer 80 1977 649
    Adolfo Phillips 80 1967 541
    Ned Williamson 80 1886 510
    Ron Santo 79 1971 642
    Augie Galan 79 1937 695
    Bob OFarrell 79 1922 481
    Vic Saier 79 1916 590
    Tommy Leach 79 1914 676
    Fred Pfeffer 79 1891 580
    Sammy Sosa 78 1999 712
    Rick Monday 78 1972 520
    Hack Wilson 78 1929 670
    Frank Chance 78 1905 502
    Frank Chance 78 1903 531
    Jose Cardenal 77 1975 666
    Player BB Year PA
    Billy Williams 77 1971 677
    Hank Sauer 77 1952 649
    Hack Wilson 77 1928 623
    Tommy Leach 77 1913 540
    Derrek Lee 76 2009 615
    Mark Bellhorn 76 2002 529
    Billy Williams 76 1973 659
    Ralph Kiner 76 1954 643
    Bill Nicholson 76 1942 673
    Frank Schulte 76 1911 687
    Jimmy Sheckard 76 1907 601
    Jimmy Slagle 76 1907 575
    Bill Dahlen 76 1894 596
    Ralph Kiner 75 1953 491
    Phil Cavarretta 75 1943 620
    Stan Hack 75 1940 686
    Augie Galan 75 1939 641
    Ray Grimes 75 1922 596
    Cap Anson 75 1891 616
    Ned Williamson 75 1885 482
    Aramis Ramirez 74 2008 645
    Ivan de Jesus 74 1978 712
    Al Bridwell 74 1913 495
    Johnny Evers 74 1912 568
    Topsy Hartsel 74 1901 636
    Player BB Year PA
    Ryan Theriot 73 2008 661
    Sammy Sosa 73 1998 722
    Brian McRae 73 1996 716
    Ron Santo 73 1961 655
    Johnny Evers 73 1909 552
    Jimmy Ryan 73 1898 657
    Jimmy Cooney 73 1890 653
    Ned Williamson 73 1887 517
    Mickey Morandini 72 1998 669
    Mark Grace 72 1992 689
    Billy Williams 72 1970 714
    Kiki Cuyler 72 1931 710
    Kiki Cuyler 72 1930 741
    Jimmy Sheckard 72 1909 644
    Derrek Lee 71 2008 698
    Derrek Lee 71 2007 650
    Mark Grace 71 1993 676
    Ernie Banks 71 1960 678
    Bill Nicholson 71 1943 684
    Phil Cavarretta 71 1942 566
    Hack Wilson 71 1927 646
    George Grantham 71 1923 665
    Mark Grace 70 1991 703
    Rick Monday 70 1974 617
    Billy Williams 70 1962 699
    Player BB Year PA
    Ernie Banks 70 1957 674
    Hank Sauer 70 1954 605
    Ray Grimes 70 1921 622
    Frank Chance 70 1906 574
    Jimmy Ryan 70 1889 652
    Mark DeRosa 69 2008 593
    Leon Durham 69 1984 548
    Ron Santo 69 1972 547
    Billy Williams 69 1966 727
    Andy Pafko 69 1950 595
    Hack Wilson 69 1926 613
    Moises Alou 68 2004 675
    Derrek Lee 68 2004 688
    Ryne Sandberg 68 1992 687
    Keith Moreland 68 1985 667
    Keith Moreland 68 1983 619
    Don Kessinger 68 1975 693
    Billy Williams 68 1967 712
    Billy Williams 68 1963 687
    Dom Dallessandro 68 1941 559
    Woody English 68 1931 727
    Woody English 68 1929 700
    Riggs Stephenson 68 1928 591
    Cap Anson 68 1893 467
    George Gore 68 1885 509
    Player BB Year PA
    Leon Durham 67 1986 557
    Billy Williams 67 1974 474
    Don Kessinger 67 1972 660
    Phil Cavarretta 67 1944 692
    Augie Galan 67 1936 649
    Riggs Stephenson 67 1929 582
    Bob OFarrell 67 1923 526
    Jimmy Sheckard 67 1906 662
    Cap Anson 67 1892 630
    Bill Dahlen 67 1891 623
    Milton Bradley 66 2009 473
    Ricky Gutierrez 66 2000 542
    Leon Durham 66 1983 409
    Leon Durham 66 1982 609
    Don Kessinger 66 1970 711
    Dale Long 66 1958 554
    Billy Herman 66 1939 713
    Kiki Cuyler 66 1929 596
    Bernie Friberg 66 1924 587
    Solly Hofman 66 1911 605
    Johnny Evers 66 1908 509
    Mark Grace 65 1995 627
    Billy Williams 65 1965 719
    Andre Rodgers 65 1963 601
    Ron Santo 65 1962 679
    Player BB Year PA
    Bill Serena 65 1950 503
    Stan Hack 65 1939 723
    Stan Hack 65 1935 504
    Gabby Hartnett 65 1928 464
    Riggs Stephenson 65 1927 668
    Solly Hofman 65 1910 572
    Bill Lange 65 1896 545
    Ned Williamson 65 1888 523
    Kosuke Fukudome 64 2010 429
    Leon Durham 64 1985 607
    Ernie Banks 64 1959 671
    Dode Paskert 64 1920 572
    Vic Saier 64 1915 568
    Bill Dahlen 64 1896 573
    Charlie Irwin 64 1894 581
    Walt Wilmot 64 1890 637
    Moises Alou 63 2003 638
    Fred McGriff 63 2002 595
    Eric Young 63 2000 690
    Bob Dernier 63 1984 612
    Ron Santo 63 1973 604
    Andy Pafko 63 1949 592
    Hack Wilson 63 1931 458
    Jimmy Slagle 63 1906 571
    Geovany Soto 62 2010 387

    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
    Generated 9/25/2011.

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  15. Rice Cube

    I guess it’d be more exciting if Pena ran to first Pete Rose-style and then while the pitcher wasn’t looking, stole second base (dying laughing)

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  16. mb21

    Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle combined for more 100 walk seasons than the Cubs have since 1876. Those guys were good at sports.

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  17. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I guess it’d be more exciting if Pena ran to first Pete Rose-style and then while the pitcher wasn’t looking, stole second base (dying laughing)[/quote]Didn’t Dunston do that once?

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  18. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Didn’t Dunston do that once?[/quote]I wouldn’t be surprised, but I’ve never seen video evidence of such an event.

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  19. GBTS

    [quote name=mb21]I could be wrong, but I have this vision of Dunston doing that once. I may have made it up though.[/quote]You’re talking about taking a walk, right?

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  20. mb21

    [quote name=GBTS](dying laughing)

    Barry Bonds had more walks in 2004 than Dunston did in his 18 year career.[/quote]I have a feeling that Bonds will have more walks in that season than Dunston and Dunston Jr. will have combined.

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  21. GBTS

    The guy at Wrigley with the Shawon-O-Meter originally had an OBP-Meter too, but he stopped after a few weeks because it was redundant.

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  22. Rice Cube

    Interesting that Bobby Bonds had 914 BB and 57 rWAR for his career. Could argue that genetics was responsible for a sizable chunk of Barry’s production while steroids did the rest (dying laughing)

    I think Dunston Sr. said that his son has a better eye than he did, so Dunston Jr. should be good for 300 BB over his career…

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  23. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    [quote name=mb21]Yeah, Nate, I don’t think how this season affects whether Friedman or Theo would be available, but I’ve thought of the same thing. Is it best to have the Red Sox flame out? Is it better to have the Rays not reach the postseason? Probably doesn’t matter one bit, I’ve thought about it.[/quote]
    Well, Boston is losing and TB is winning. I’m actually to the point that I expect TB to win the WC. Boston just sucks now for some reason. I don’t expect Friedman or Epstein to actually be available; I think the Cubs have a better chance of getting Billy Beane. I read on MLBTR today that OAK currently has a spending freeze, and if they do finally get a new park, they’re going full rebuild. I bet Beane could be getting tired of that. I realize he has an ownership stake, but that was just a form of compensation because they couldn’t otherwise match what he could get elsewhere. I think he’d love to come to a place like CHC where he can perenially contend.

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  24. ACT

    Hey, Quade, ever heard of this thing called a pinch-hitter? It’s what you do instead of letting your pitcher hit with the game on the line.

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  25. mb21

    The Braves had been the team I root for after the Cubs season was all but over, but I also root for the Cardinals. The Braves team isn’t anything like it was when I was a big fan of them. So unlike the rest of you guys, I’m actually pulling for the Cardinals. Can’t root against the Cubs, but I won’t be the least bit unhappy if the Cardinals win this one.

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  26. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]Hey, Quade, ever heard of this thing called a pinch-hitter? It’s what you do instead of letting your pitcher hit with the game on the line.[/quote]Now see, if they had a DH…

    /blaspheme’d

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  27. mb21

    [quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]This Boston collapse is of a pretty historic magnitude, correct?[/quote]No idea. I don’t even know where the 1969 Cubs fall in.

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  28. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]This Boston collapse is of a pretty historic magnitude, correct?[/quote]I don’t know how historic it is given that back in the days of the other Boston collapse and the 1969 Cubs, there was no wild card to speak of. But in the wild-card era I’d think it was pretty bad.

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  29. Mish

    [quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]This Boston collapse is of a pretty historic magnitude, correct?[/quote]
    I don’t think a team has been further back of a playoff spot at the start of September (9.5 back) than the Rays. I might be misremembering.

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  30. ACT

    [quote name=mb21]The Braves team isn’t anything like it was when I was a big fan of them. [/quote]Yeah, now the Bravos are a pitching-driven team with Chipper Jones in the middle of the lineup. Wait…

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  31. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Yeah, now the Bravos are a pitching-driven team with Chipper Jones in the middle of the lineup. Wait…[/quote]I meant the personnel.

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  32. GBTS

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Doesn’t help that the receivers don’t like catching passes from Cutler.[/quote]Knox hauls in that catch if its thrown with more leadership.

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  33. Rice Cube

    I like how on the replay of the Teixiera double/error/(dying laughing) play, Terry Francona has his head down in the “I’m so fired” pose.

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  34. ACT

    Unless Lincecum manages to get into another game this season, he will finish with a losing record. That’s the most damning indictment of the Giants offense that I can think of.

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  35. Aisle424

    [quote name=GBTS]The refs blatantly had the under. (dying laughing)[/quote]I have watched that play about 10 times now and I have no fucking clue what they were looking at. Someone tweeted a picture where Graham has his finger on a shoulder pad of a player and that was apparently the “hold.”

    The Bears didn’t deserve to have a shot in that game, but that play was fucking beautiful and should have counted.

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  36. GBTS

    [quote name=Aisle424]I have watched that play about 10 times now and I have no fucking clue what they were looking at. Someone tweeted a picture where Graham has his finger on a shoulder pad of a player and that was apparently the “hold.”

    The Bears didn’t deserve to have a shot in that game, but that play was fucking beautiful and should have counted.[/quote]I honestly wonder if that was a situation where the refs were so confused by what was happening on the field (like everyone else in the stadium) that they figured something had to be afoul.

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  37. Aisle424

    [quote name=GBTS]I honestly wonder if that was a situation where the refs were so confused by what was happening on the field (like everyone else in the stadium) that they figured something had to be afoul.[/quote]I’m surprised they didn’t say Hester called a fair catch. He didn’t, but he sold it as far as one can without actually calling it. If there was anything they could have called that was somewhat plausible, it was that.

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  38. ACT

    Of course, Quade would have had Lackey hit in the top of the seventh, and then pulled him after facing one batter in the bottom, but that doesn’t happen in the AL.

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  39. binky

    [quote name=GBTS]I honestly wonder if that was a situation where the refs were so confused by what was happening on the field (like everyone else in the stadium) that they figured something had to be afoul.[/quote]I think you’re dead on there.

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  40. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]Of course, Quade would have had Lackey hit in the top of the seventh, and then pulled him after facing one batter in the bottom, but that doesn’t happen in the AL.[/quote]He could have pulled an uber-Quade (i.e. a move that transcends Quade-level stupidity) by sacrificing the DH for the remainder of the game just to have Lackey hit. But nobody is that stupid…

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  41. ACT

    I think I’d like the Rays better if some of their fanbase didn’t hold them up as the ideal baseball franchise that all other clubs should live up to. (e.g., Why can’t the Cubs be more like the Rays?)

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  42. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]I think I’d like the Rays better if some of their fanbase didn’t hold them up as the ideal baseball franchise that all other clubs should live up to. (e.g., Why can’t the Cubs be more like the Rays?)[/quote]Well, y’know, I wouldn’t mind if the Cubs were more like the Rays in certain ways…

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  43. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]Also, what was wrong with “The Devil Rays”? Much cooler name and logo.[/quote]There was an entire chapter or two dedicated to this in Jonah Keri’s book.

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  44. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]There was an entire chapter or two dedicated to this in Jonah Keri’s book.[/quote]I’ve been thinking about reading that. Is it good?

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  45. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]I’ve been thinking about reading that. Is it good?[/quote]I liked it. It was basically Moneyball II but didn’t so much talk about market inefficiencies as it did about how to revamp a franchise on almost all levels.

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  46. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]So at some point the Yankees will score, right?[/quote]Is that what they’re trying to do? I honestly can’t tell.

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  47. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    Ellsbury—–> Only Boston player who’s been playing for the last month. (dying laughing)

    31 HR, crazy

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  48. WaLi

    [quote name=ACT]It would be more hilarious if the Cardinals got swept this week by the ‘stros.[/quote]It would be even more more hilarious if my house got swept by my wife. I think the chances for the other two are greater.

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  49. mb21

    [quote name=WaLi]It would be even more more hilarious if my house got swept by my wife. I think the chances for the other two are greater.[/quote](dying laughing)

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  50. Rice Cube

    Somewhat surprisingly, the Raiders are 2-1 and may yet be 3-0 if not for an epic fail against the Bills, who are 3-0 and may be too legit to quit.

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  51. ACT

    Speaking of giving the MVP to a non-contender, the year Andre Dawson won MVP on a last-place team, he only had the fourth-best season among NL outfielders (behind Murphy, Strawberry, and Gwynn.)

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  52. Aisle424

    [quote name=ACT]Make that right fielders. There were several other outfielders with better years (Davis, Bonds, Van Slyke, Raines, Guerrero).[/quote]He did it on bad knees though. And Eric Show hit him in the face with a fastball. And he had the best scowl.

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  53. Aisle424

    I don’t even care that Andre Dawson probably didn’t deserve the MVP. He deserved getting some recognition after being hidden away in Montreal for all those years,

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  54. Berselius

    [quote name=Aisle424]He did it on bad knees though. And Eric Show hit him in the face with a fastball. And he had the best scowl.[/quote]
    I wonder what his Fearededness Over Replacement was that year.

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  55. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GBTS]I made that one way back in the old ACB days when we had that “It’s A Way Of Life” photo album.[/quote]That was awesome. Is it allowed to be shared?

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  56. Rice Cube

    I just found this one by GBTS too (dying laughing)

    I found the clip on Youtube that day and posted it, but this gif was a nice touch.

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  57. ACT

    To hell with it; I’m ending the season on an optimistic note. In order for Starlin to finish under .300, he’d have to average 5 AB per game and go hitless in all of them.

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  58. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Mish]It probably should go to Kemp. What’s funny is that if Kemp wins the triple crown, he surely would be the MVP. But if his BA is .005 short of Braun, he likely won’t.

    So it goes.[/quote]I don’t think Braun is undeserving but it’d be great to see Kemp get it.

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  59. ACT

    I’m not holding that against him. Last year Hamilton won, also partly the result of a fluky BABIP. Great years are always part talent, part fluke.

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  60. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]I’m not holding that against him. Last year Hamilton won, also partly the result of a fluky BABIP. Great years are always part talent, part fluke.[/quote]And part opposing pitchers being pansies (Bonds 2001-2004)

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  61. Mish

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I don’t think Braun is undeserving but it’d be great to see Kemp get it.[/quote]
    Braun’s an okay choice, but I think Kemp has been significantly better. He’s been one win better by fWAR and 2 wins by rWAR (his offensive WAR is 8.8 to Braun’s 7). He plays a more difficult position and has a playing time advantage. If you wanted to list the 2-3 best candidates, Braun would make that list, but I think Kemp is clearly a superior choice.

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  62. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Mish]Braun’s an okay choice, but I think Kemp has been significantly better. He’s been one win better by fWAR and 2 wins by rWAR (his offensive WAR is 8.8 to Braun’s 7). He plays a more difficult position and has a playing time advantage. If you wanted to list the 2-3 best candidates, Braun would make that list, but I think Kemp is clearly a superior choice.[/quote]I agree with you.

    Non sequitur:

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  63. Rice Cube

    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/26/why-does-everyone-want-to-give-millions-to-billionaires/

    [quote name=some commenter]*BTW, guys: I learned this many years ago in a judo class: should you receive trauma in the place-that-must-not-be-named, and you’re still conscious and capable of minimal movement, tap your heels against the ground/floor. It doesn’t stop the pain but definitely moderates it by sending an impulse along an acupuncture meridian. And yes, I had a couple of chances to “test” this treatment since I learned it, and it works pretty much as advertised: it helps enough that you don’t feel that agony-level of someone’s-pulling-my-bowels-out-thru-my-navel. And it helps quicken the return to normalcy.[/quote]Learn something new every day!

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  64. GBTS

    [quote name=Rice Cube]This was the play you guys were talking about yesterday right? The video here unfortunately didn’t show the “hold”, if such a hold actually happened…

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Video-Hester-fakes-punt-return-while-Knox-field?urn=nfl-wp7932%5B/quote%5DI really like the writer’s speculation on why the Bears did this so late in a two-score game. Now other team’s will know! Or do the Bears want them to know? What if the other team knows that the Bears know that they know?

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  65. Rice Cube

    [quote name=WaLi]Wow so apparently the refs called the penalty on #29… the Bears don’t even have a #29 on the team. (dying laughing) fuckers[/quote]I was not aware of this. How shady.

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  66. GBTS

    [quote name=WaLi]Wow so apparently the refs called the penalty on #29… the Bears don’t even have a #29 on the team. (dying laughing) fuckers[/quote]Raymont Harris held on a punt 15 years ago and got away with it, it was a makeup call by the refs.

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  67. ACT

    The NL CYA race looks like a virtual tie between Halladay, Lee, and Kershaw. I kind of hope Kershaw wins, since he hasn’t won yet and deserves the recognition. (I’m inclined to think Halladay is most deserving, but just barely.)

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  68. Aisle424

    I can’t find the link, but in the live feed of the game, you can see Corey Graham grabbing a shoulder pad of one of the gunners. I watched it about 10 times yesterday and never saw it, but if you go frame by frame and zoom in, there it is. It isn’t blatant, but it is there and it is technically the correct call. I personally think it is ticky-tack, but I’m biased and I’m not going to make the “yeah it was a penalty, but it wasn’t much of a penalty” argument.

    As for when the Bears used it, I kind of wish they had pulled it out when the score might have given them the lead or a tie, but whatever. The good part of running it now is that teams will have to be aware of it and that might give Hester a little more running room on future kick returns. If they don’t the play will probably work again sometime in the future. So either way works out for the Bears in the long run.

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  69. Rice Cube

    I guess when the punt coverage team goes down field they really don’t know where the punt is going, but that was a bit of special teams fail there. Too bad about the penalty but I guess the rule is the rule.

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  70. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I guess when the punt coverage team goes down field they really don’t know where the punt is going, but that was a bit of special teams fail there. Too bad about the penalty but I guess the rule is the rule.[/quote]You know the punter was back there just screaming his ass off and waving his hands.

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  71. binky

    [quote name=mb21]Is that Hannibal Lector? (dying laughing)[/quote]Mostly costumes from the “sexy girl” line of Haloween wear.

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  72. bubblesdachimp

    I dont recognize half the people in the picture. Barney is all.. I love theat they made him wear a chinese food box

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  73. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]When did Steve Clevenger get called up?[/quote]last week, I think. He’s starting tomorrow.

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  74. bubblesdachimp

    [quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]last week, I think. He’s starting tomorrow.[/quote]is beef castle hurt or something?

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  75. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]Peña is still trying to get 30 HR’s. Good luck in Petco Park.[/quote]There have been some insane home runs at Petco Park this season. Justin Upton’s homer comes to mind. Not impossible!

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  76. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]There have been some insane home runs at Petco Park this season. Justin Upton’s homer comes to mind. Not impossible![/quote]The Padres have hit almost as many homers at home (43) as they have on the road (45). Their team leader is Ryan Ludwig, who has 11. I think someone forgot to tell them the deadball era is over.

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  77. bubblesdachimp

    [quote name=Mish]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/26/hawk-harrelson-steve-stone-rip-moneyball-book-and-movie-admit-theyve-seen-nor-read-neither/[/quote]dont know how i feel about that

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  78. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Mish]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/26/hawk-harrelson-steve-stone-rip-moneyball-book-and-movie-admit-theyve-seen-nor-read-neither/[/quote]Joe Morgan has telepathic powers?

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  79. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    [quote name=Mish]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/26/hawk-harrelson-steve-stone-rip-moneyball-book-and-movie-admit-theyve-seen-nor-read-neither/[/quote]I wish all blogs used the prefix “former Playgirl model” when mentioning Steve Stone. I’ve read it so much here that I automatically include it in my conversations, and then usually have to explain (dying laughing)

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  80. 8volumesthick

    I love this:

    Mr. Ricketts, if you want some friendly advice from Mr. Harrelson, here it is:

    “I couldn’t believe what Ricketts said about the Cubs, that whoever is going to be the new general manager is going to have to be well-versed in sabermetrics,” Harrelson said.

    Somebody needs to tell Hawk that the guy one seat away on the south side is well versed. His name is Rick Hahn

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  81. 8volumesthick

    also Hawk’s never heard of the library:

    So I take it you haven’t read the book?

    “I wouldn’t waste the money,” Harrelson said.

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  82. cdw

    I love Hobgoblins that know exactly how the world works. Nothing has ever been gained by researching a new idea on a complex and dynamic subject/system. Those ideas and results supporting them are poppycock. Obviously, their champions are just lining their pockets with research dollars and spending their lives work building corrupt data so they can support themselves finically.

    /Perry’d

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  83. mb21

    [quote name=cdw]I love Hobgoblins that know exactly how the world works. Nothing has ever been gained by researching a new idea on a complex and dynamic subject/system. Those ideas and results supporting them are poppycock. Obviously, their champions are just lining their pockets with research dollars and spending their lives work building corrupt data so they can support themselves finically.

    /Perry’d[/quote](dying laughing)

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  84. binky

    [quote name=ACT]I predict half the population of Boston commits suicide tonight.[/quote]Only 25 minutes till the Cubs game starts. I’m getting excited about that. Last WGN game. Against the arch rival Padres. That’s so worth losing an entire night’s worth of sleep.

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  85. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]Whose the AL MVP leading candidate? Robinson Cano thinks it’s Robinson Cano.[/quote]I’d like to say Jose Bautista still has it but Jacoby Ellsbury may shut me right up.

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  86. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I’d like to say Jose Bautista still has it but Jacoby Ellsbury may shut me right up.[/quote]Go watch the footage of the Adino homer on Gameday. It brings Ellsbury’s candidacy into serious doubt.

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  87. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]Go watch the footage of the Adino homer on Gameday. It brings Ellsbury’s candidacy into serious doubt.[/quote]Defensive fail?

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  88. binky

    Bautista did basically the same thing yesterday and ended up having to come out of the game. So maybe they’re still neck and neck.

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  89. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I assume y’all heard that Ozzie is being traded to the Marlins?[/quote]I heard they were trying to work a deal. Is it official yet?

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  90. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]I heard they were trying to work a deal. Is it official yet?[/quote]Sounds official but not yet officially official.

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  91. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]It’s hard to say, but it wouldn’t really surprise me if they brought him back.[/quote]I’d sort of like that, but for his sake I hope they let him go somewhere else.

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  92. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I’d sort of like that, but for his sake I hope they let him go somewhere else.[/quote]I don’t know. He’s never going to be as welcome anywhere else. I’m guessing if he’s a dump contract, the press and the local fans of his new destination will eat him for breakfast. He’s not exactly in his prime. It’ll probably be good for him if he can pitch consistently. If not, I could see him getting eaten alive.

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  93. binky

    [quote name=GBTS]I started watching this game, but it was too painful. Too soon.[/quote]Too soon since yesterday’s game? They waited as long as they could.

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  94. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]On a squeeze even![/quote]This drives me crazy. Brad Mills pulls a suicide squeeze with one out, which you are never supposed to do, and it wins the game. I hate it when idiot managers’ bad moves are rewarded.

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  95. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]Sorry, I mean no outs. Suicide is fine with 1 out. With no outs, it’s stupid.[/quote]I hope you never run a hotline (dying laughing)

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  96. Berselius

    [quote name=Mish]Some tards on Twitter are calling for FPM Steve Stone to be the next Sox manager…that would be (dying laughing)asaurus Rex.[/quote]
    Manager and co-GM (dying laughing)

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  97. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Now that Ozzie is going to be the Marlins manager, I wonder if he’ll push them to trade for his dinner buddy.[/quote]I have no idea why any team would hire that guy. It makes even less sense to actually trade for him.

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  98. mb21

    [quote name=GBTS]Have they said who they traded for Ozzie?[/quote]A couple people I’d never heard of, but still. If I’m any team in baseball I wouldn’t trade a soda can for him. I wouldn’t hire him if he paid me.

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  99. Rice Cube

    I think it’s more likely for the Red Sox to win twice against the Orioles than the Rays sweeping the Yankees, but stranger things have happened.

    In the NL, I think the Braves split the remaining games against the Phillies but the Cardinals dispatch the Astros.

    If the Red Sox lose out and the Cards can’t take the Astros, well, they deserved to lose anyway (dying laughing)

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  100. GBTS

    [quote name=ACT]Clayton Kershaw: 233.1 IP, 66 R 21 W
    Roy Halladay: 233.2 IP, 65 R 19 W
    Cliff Lee: 233.2 IP, 66R 17 W

    Good luck, Cy Young, voters![/quote]Seems much easier now, don’t it?

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  101. mb21

    Archer was always a guy with a relatively high ceiling, but also a pretty good chance of failing. I don’t know that I’d call his season a disappointment. I also wouldn’t call Simpson’s disappointing, but that’s because I figured he wouldn’t be very good. McNutt had high expectations and sucked. His control was solid so the chance of him failing was much less likely than Archer who some scouts have always said is a reliever.

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  102. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]I think that Simpson’s velocity loss, at least, makes him disappointing.[/quote]Are we really sure he had the velocity some people were saying? I was always skeptical. I remember reading when they drafted him that he had low 90s stuff and then all of a sudden I’m reading about how he can hit 187 mph. But yeah, sitting in the high 80s is disappointing, but I didn’t really believe the high 90s stuff.

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  103. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Are we really sure he had the velocity some people were saying? I was always skeptical. I remember reading when they drafted him that he had low 90s stuff and then all of a sudden I’m reading about how he can hit 187 mph. But yeah, sitting in the high 80s is disappointing, but I didn’t really believe the high 90s stuff.[/quote]The only velocity readings I saw were from his MLB.com scouting video when they used an 8-bit radar gun to show he hit 93 mph (dying laughing)

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  104. Rice Cube

    Jason (WI)

    I understand the Quade is trying to win as many games as possible but doesnt the fact that he didnt play the “kids” as much as he should kind of hint that even he knows his days are number? If he felt like he was going to be back he wouldnt he want to see who can play?

    Bruce Levine (1:08 PM)

    That’s a possibility. I think you’re right about that. Also there is no direction in the organization for Quade. There is no top baseball guy telling him what the plan is for next year. When you’re out there on an island like Quade is, you just try to win every game.

    Finally played the kids last night…Padres 2, “kids” 0.

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  105. WaLi

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Finally played the kids last night…Padres 2, “kids” 0.[/quote]Only because Quade is on an island and didn’t tell the kids to have fun.

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  106. Rice Cube

    [quote name=WaLi]Only because Quade is on an island and didn’t tell the kids to have fun.[/quote]Too bad it wasn’t an island of fun.

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  107. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Finally played the kids last night…Padres 2, “kids” 0.[/quote]The kids amassed a whopping 2 hits. They were by Castro and Coleman, who are regular starters, anyway. The only other baserunner was a walk. By Pena.

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  108. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]The kids amassed a whopping 2 hits. They were by Castro and Coleman, who are regular starters, anyway. The only other baserunner was a walk. By Pena.[/quote]I was honestly hoping for a perfect game but the Cubs fucked that up (dying laughing)

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  109. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]I always root for the Cubs’ no no-hitter streak to keep going. It’s one of the few cool things the Cubs have going for them.[/quote]I do enjoy watching good baseball and while I don’t really want the Cubs to lose per se, you can’t argue that a perfect game would be really cool to see.

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  110. mb21

    [quote name=Mish]Any insiders here?

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/features/rumors?date=20110927&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2ffeatures%2frumors%3fdate%3d20110927#10929%5B/quote%5D

    The Chicago Cubs will likely bring back Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza as stalwart pieces to their five-man rotation, but considering the situation with Carlos Zambrano and the lack of other clear cut answers, Andrew Cashner is likely to man one of those spots. Jeff Samardzija is eyeing another, reports ESPNChicago.com’s Bruce Levine.

    Long term, both right-handers could end up in the bullpen but each could get shots in spring training to unseat the likes of Randy Wells and Casey Coleman.

    Both pitchers have plus fastballs and profile well in a relief role if they prove unable to stick in the rotation. Cashner may even have the stuff to close.

    .

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