Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds (21-29) at Chicago Cubs (22-27)

In Series Previews by berselius172 Comments

One reason that I like to write these is that it reminds me on a weeklyish basis what the Cubs record is (dying laughing). The Cubs still aren’t Five Back™ yet but there’s a lil cluster with the Reds and Cardinals for the division basement, which is not fun. Hopefully things get right in this series. The Reds offense has been struggling – their 87 wrC+ is the second worst in the NL, behind only, surprisingly, the Rockies (?!). Their pitching staff has a collective 5.00 ERA, but they’ve had some bad luck with home runs. Then again, they play half their games at GABP so maybe it’s not that surprising.

Team Leaders

Switching to actual numbers on the year!

Erds

  • OBP: Jonathan India (.379)
  • ISO: Luke Maile (.216)
  • HR: Spencer Steer (6)
  • R+RBI: Steer (47)
  • wRC+: T.J. Friedl (127)
  • BSR: Friedl (2.4)
  • Defense: Friedl (2.0)
  • SP K/9: Hunter Greene (12.42)
  • SP BB/9: Luke Weaver (2.13)
  • SP FIP: Greene (3.98)
  • RP K/9: Alexis Diaz (16.88)
  • RP BB/9: Alex Young (1.33)
  • RP FIP: Diaz (1.30)
  • WAR: Friedl (1.4)

Cubs

  • OBP: Happ (.408)
  • ISO: Morel (.526)
  • HR: Wisdom (12)
  • R+RBI: Belli (49)
  • wRC+: Morel (223)
  • BSR: Hoerner (3.2)
  • Defense: Swanson (5.8)
  • SP K/9: Taillon (8.11)
  • SP BB/9: Smyly (1.95)
  • SP FIP: Steele (2.95)
  • RP K/9: Leiter (13.72)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (1.52)
  • RP FIP: Leiter (2.29)
  • WAR: Swanson (1.9)

Who isn’t available?

Nick Burdi got his callup and hit the IL with an appendectomy less than a week later. I can confirm from personal experience that it can take a while to bounce back from it. No clue if Burdi will follow my example and marry the surgeon’s daughter in a decade or so. Brad Boxberger is out indefinitely with the dreaded forearm strain diagnosis. A MRI earlier this week showed no structural damage so it looks like they can just wait it out for now. There’s been no recent news on Belli, who hit the IL 10 days ago with a knee injury, though last I heard was that it was not expected to be a just-the-minimum stint. Codi Heuer has looked solid in his rehab from TJS and could be back on the roster in a week or two.

The Reds have a ton of guys on the injury report. Obviously the biggest hole is Joey Votto, who is on the 60-day IL following shoulder surgery last year. He’s been taking live BP with the AAA team but hasn’t seen any game action yet. OF Wil Myers has been out of the lineup with some undisclosed minor injury that hasn’t sent him to the DL. SP Connor Overton, who the Cubs saw earlier this year, has seen his window to pitch again moved to next season following TJS. SP Nick Lodolo is shut down indefinitely with a flexor issue and a stress reaction in his tibia. It’s almost like the human body is not designed to throw baseballs hard 🙁

Pitching Matchups, Game Times

2023 K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP listed for all starters

Friday: Hunter Greene, RHP (12.42, 3.60, 4.68, 3.98) vs Justin Steele, LHP (7.78, 2.35, 2.20, 2.95), 1:20 PM CT

Saturday: Brandon Williamson*, LHP (9.00, 4.95, 4.95, 5.18) vs Jameson Taillon, RHP (9.11, 3.38, 8.10, 4.93), 6:15 PM CT (Fox)

*projected numbers listed for Williamson, who is a more recent callup

Sunday: Graham Ashcraft, RHP (6.92, 3.54, 5.57, 4.50) vs Drew Smyly, RHP (8.30, 1.95, 2.93, 3.60), 1:20 PM CT

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Comments

  3. Author
    berselius

    Rice Cube,

    This is some hilariously ballsy extortion that doesn’t even mention any specific issues. It’s not like there’s falling concrete, sewage backups, rodent infestations, etc. What ballpark ‘innovations’ have developed since it opened 20 years go (dying laughing).

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  14. andcounting

    Sneaky good and important appearance for Assad. It would be pretty nice to get out of this game using only 3 pitchers.

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  21. Rice Cube

    Alas, the scoring at least one run streak has ended…I suppose we should wonder why David Ross ran out this particular lineup, not that it would have mattered much given the various slumps in this offense, and then there’s also the part where the defense is noticeably worse (especially in the outfield) without Cody Bellinger and even Suzuki out there. I still feel like this team shouldn’t be this bad, and I guess one day when I’m more bored than I am now I’ll write it up (or we can rant on the podcast) but for now this is yet another flusher in a season that seems about to be wasted if they don’t figure all this shit out.

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  22. Rice Cube

    On the other hand, they lost in just 2:41 and the day is still young on this coast so I’m going to catch up on the Arrowverse (which ended this week)

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  23. Rice Cube

    Rice Cube,

    Arrowverse wrap up was somewhat disappointing but that’s a hasty completion task for ya. They did get to bring in the old guest stars but I guess they didn’t want to pay the Kid Flash actor or bring in some Legends 🤷🏻‍♂️

    Happy birthday to Pat Hughes, would be intrigued to see how he handles ABS when it comes to MLB

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/cooper-challenge-system-has-best-aspects-of-abs-without-the-downsides/

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  29. Perkins

    Taillon is going to throw a no-hitter that gets his season on track. Or he’ll get blown up again. It could go either way.

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  37. Rice Cube

    I often wonder when they will force the Cubs to fix this brick wall issue they have

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  44. Perkins

    I realize anything could happen, but it feels like dropping a home series to the Reds at this point is pretty much the death knell for this season.

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  50. andcounting

    You know, the thing that bothers me most about Madrigal is how David Ross used him. There’s something really messed up about wavering between “he should hit first,” “he shouldn’t be playing,” and “he shouldn’t be on the team” over the course of a few days. Now, I know Bellinger’s injury and Morel’s defensive limitations changed the scope of the team’s needs, but still, Ross looks like an idiot this year.

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  52. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    He ran into a wall that is inexplicably not flat. I don’t think that qualifies as bad luck or malpractice. It’s reckless endangerment.

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  53. andcounting

    I swear to god I’m going to stab Zach Zaidman. “hit IN THE air…”

    I’m going to need more specifics here. He literally says that and pauses for a full second whether it’s a pop up or a homer.

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  54. Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I think I understand why they wait to do the IL stint but given how little depth this team seems to have now it made sense to not shorten the bench…the lack of a decent defensive OF is annoying though but this would seem a good spot to let Velazquez go for a bit if Bellinger is out for at least a couple more weeks

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  61. Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    By the eye test he seems tentative and not anywhere near as smooth as Belli was, and it’s not like you want Happ or Morel doing it either so if that’s the best choice then the Cubs need to keep everything on the ground (dying laughing)

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  64. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    I just wouldn’t mind offering one of them a cup of coffee to fill in for a couple weeks. If up-the-middle defense really is the key to this team’s success, it seems dumb to leave a gaping hole in center.

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  73. andcounting

    They’re so terrible. It seems like the catchers are telling every hitter what pitch is coming. And you can’t tell me there isn’t something psychologically wrong with a team that has an OPS of .900 until runners reach scoring position at which point it goes down to-2.254.

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  75. Author
    berselius

    Time to load up the bases and put another zero on the board. I believe in you, Cubs offense.

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  84. Perkins

    I don’t normally use first person pronouns for something I only observe, but in the immortal words of one Carlos Zambrano, “we stinks.”

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  104. Author
    berselius

    Perkins,

    First we’ll use Spahn, then we’ll use Sain,

    Then an off day, followed by rain.

    Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain,

    And followed, we hope, by two days of rain

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  106. Rice Cube

    The best possible news after the major suckfest even including today’s W is that the Cubs are no longer in last place and only 5 games back of first to start tomorrow thanks to this atrocious division

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  113. Perkins

    Rice Cube,

    Maybe Taillon will get a phantom IL stint, but I’m having trouble seeing why Rucker would go down unless one of Taillon or Wesneski will be available in relief.

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  116. Author
    berselius

    Mentioned on the podcast – I remembered that EW noted that the Padres have been really bad in clutch situations*, so I looked up how the cubs compared 😬

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  117. Author
    berselius

    berselius,

    *After looking back at the EW episode, they were specifically talking about the Padres terrible OPS with RISP, not clutch. The Cubs have actually been pretty average with RISP…it’s just that they’ve been terrible when it counts 🙁

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  129. Author
    berselius

    Mancini just wanted to make the next few batters feel comfortable by making sure the bases were no longer clogged

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  139. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    DH Hoerner
    SS Swanson
    LF Happ
    RF Suzuki
    CF Tauchman
    1B Mervis
    3B Wisdom
    2B Mastrobuoni
    C Barnhart

    SP Steele

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  148. Author
    berselius

    Perkins,

    Ross and a trainer checked on Steele mid-inning after he had a small reaction to a pitch. Hopefully nothing but def a Not Great Bob.

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  149. Perkins

    Hearing the phrase “Steele wanted to stretch his forearm a bit more” doesn’t inspire confidence.

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  170. Perkins

    Something about failing to seal the third game after winning the first two feels so much worse than winning the bookends or the latter two games.

    Looking past the potential Steele injury, I’d say we should be happy about a series win against the best team in MLB, but here we are.

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