Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (1-2) at Cincinnati Reds (2-1)

In Series Previews by berselius127 Comments

Will the Cubs sniff .500 again this year? Playing the relatively lowly Reds should certainly help. The Reds won their opening series against the Pirates, so even aside from SSS take that initial record with a large grain of salt.

The Reds were not projected to be very good this year (3rd worst 69-93) projection, and they are certainly spending like it. As was noted on the Poscast, their fourth highest paid player this year is Ken Griffey Jr, who retired ~15 years ago and is due a $3.59m deferred payment. The only players above him are Joey Votto (no surprise), with a $25m salary, Mike Moustakas, who was released in the offseason, with $18m, and Wil Myers, with $6m. As much as we grumble about the Cubs spending given their resources, and there’s a drive into deep left field by Castellanos, it will be a home run, it’s good to be reminded that it could be a lot worse. The Cubs are paying thirteen players (plus Jason Heyward) more than that Griffey money.

(Projected) Team leaders

Numbers taken from Zips projections – based on past performance there’s a 30% chance that I’ll put someone who is no longer in the team on these lists on any given week (dying laughing).

Erds

  • OBP: Jake Fralye (.346)
  • ISO: Wil Myers (.196)
  • HR: Spencer Steer (20)
  • R+RBI: Steer (154)
  • wRC+: Myers (115)
  • BSR: Will Benson (0.3)
  • Defense: Tyler Stephenson (6.4)
  • SP K/9: Hunter Greene (10.98)
  • SP BB/9: Nick Lodolo (2.82)
  • SP FIP: Lodolo (3.79)
  • RP K/9: Alexis Diaz (11.44)
  • RP BB/9: Joel Kuhnel (2.55)
  • RP FIP: Diaz (3.85)
  • WAR: Steer (2.6)

Cubs

  • OBP: Seiya Suzuki (.352)
  • ISO: Patrick Wisdom (.230)
  • HR: Wisdom (26)
  • R+RBI: Dansby Swanson (171)
  • wRC+: Suzuki (135)
  • BSR: Hoerner (1.1)
  • Defense: Swanson (16.1)
  • SP K/9: Justin Steele (8.94)
  • SP BB/9: Jameson Taillon (2.16)
  • SP FIP: Marcus Stroman (3.69)
  • RP K/9: Brandon Hughes (10.62)
  • RP BB/9: Madden Generated Player (2.91)
  • RP FIP: Michael Fulmer (3.78)
  • WAR: Swanson (5.0)

Who isn’t available?

Copypasta-ing from last series since I haven’t seen any updates. On the Cubs side, Seiya Suzuki is on the 10-day IL as he recovers from his oblique strain. He’s been taking BP and has played in the field in some back field games, and could be back in a week or two. Cyle is also on the 10-day IL with his shoulder injury, and probably won’t be back until May. The Cubs were hoping that lefty reliever Brandon Hughes would be ready to go for opening day, but he’s still dealing with some knee issues and is probably a week or so out. And lest we forget, RP Codi Heuer had Tommy John last year, and could be back at midseason.

On the Reds side, Joey Votto is on the IL following offseason shoulder surgery, and is rehabbing with the Reds AAA team. He should be back in a week or two. Reliever Lucas Sims has been shut down due to back spasms, and has no timetable for return. Starter Luke Weaver is rehabbing from a forearm injury, and OF Nick Senzel is recovering from toe sugery.

Pitching Matchups, game times

2023 Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for all starters

Monday: Drew Smyly, LHP (8.13, 2.90, 4.84) vs Connor Overton, RHP(7.29, 2.86, 4.43), 5:40 PM CT

Tuesday: Hayden Wesneski, RHP (7.64, 3.06, 4.58) vs Luis Cessa, RHP (7.26, 3.18, 4.07), 5:40 PM CT

Wednesday: Marcus Stroman, RHP (7.64, 2.45, 3.58) vs Hunter Greene, RHP (10.98, 3.36, 3.92), 11:35 AM CT

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Comments

  5. Rice Cube

    My big thought is how the heck they’re going to control the running game better but this brand of baseball is pretty fun so far

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  6. Rice Cube

    Didn’t realize teams did mound visits that infrequently

    Excluding pitching changes, which do not count in the totals, teams last season averaged only 1.18 mound visits per game, according to STATS Perform. The Rays led the league at 1.59. The Yankees were at 1.23.

    Makes sense for the catcher to just chat up the pitcher to save that auto-ball or auto-balk –> https://theathletic.com/4375981/2023/04/03/mlb-pitch-clock-manfred-analytics-debate-the-windup/?source=twitterhq

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  9. Rice Cube

    Hooray!

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  10. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    2B Hoerner
    SS Swanson
    LF Happ
    CF Bellinger
    RF Mancini
    3B Wisdom
    1B Hosmer
    DH Rios
    C Barnhart

    P Smyly

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  49. andcounting

    This hasn’t exactly been a David Ross showcase season so far. His coaching decisions look pretty horrid, though so does roster construction with a gaping hole in right field and no Morel or Bote.

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  52. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    On their own I think both decisions are defensible but the collective strategy just doesn’t make sense at all. Seiya’s out. Either you think you’re going to win with run prevention or you are plagiarizing the design of the Death Star. “Come on, I DARE you to find our weak spot TWICE!”

    Beyond that, Ross is looking kinda dumb right now. Drew Smyly being left in to give up 7 runs is pretty hard to figure out. The Wisdom bunt is unjustifiable in 2023. I’m not panicked at all that a couple starters have had bad games. I’m extremely concerned that David Ross has.

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  53. Rice Cube

    I guess the most diplomatic way I can say this is that I believe David Ross probably still knows more baseball than I ever will, practically speaking, but has made what most would consider questionable decisions even with the caveat of this team being .500 at best and with personnel who don’t possess the ability to weather any significant margin of error

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  54. Rice Cube

    Speaking of Star Wars, I guess I had slightly better odds of successfully navigating an asteroid field than actually getting this year’s bracket right

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  56. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    What’s the point of being diplomatic? Yeah, he’s learned a lot about baseball, but we know for a fact that baseball people learn a lot of things that are better off unlearned.

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  58. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Aside from opinion/wishes whatever, I objectively think a really terrible season or even a really terrible start will probably require a fall guy, and should it come to that it will probably be Ross.

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  60. andcounting

    Aside from obvious frustration with being 1-3, the general (non stand-in) defense, Keegan Thompson’s assuring dominance, two scoreless starts, Dansby “Ron” Swanson have all been pretty encouraging.

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  66. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Yeah, I mean I was disappointed when he didn’t make the team because he’s very likable, but I figured it could benefit him in the long run. But I didn’t remember who Mastrobuoni was exactly and figured he must be an outfielder. The fact that he’s been this light-hitting utility role player all through the minors . . . I just don’t get it. What about him looks better than Morel as your opening day right fielder. As a bench guy when Suzuki is playing, whatever. But this makes less than zero sense.

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  67. andcounting

    Even if Seiya had gotten hurt right before opening day I would understand not wanting to divert from the plan with Morel. But they had all spring training to plan, and this is not a winning plan. It doesn’t even resemble the plan of a team who wants to trick you into believing they want to compete.

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  79. Author
    berselius

    Glad the Cubs decided to pick up the scorifying just as I finished dealing with a day of insurance nonsense. Runs!

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  80. BVS

    andcounting,

    The other option was McKinstrey. At keast Mastrobuoni could put up spring training stats.

    Morel came up from AA, some AAA seasoning makes sense, I think. Mastro has options.

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  84. Author
    berselius

    Swanson can’t even get a hit smh. Marty Brennaman must be spinning in his grave, assuming someone buried him alive.

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  92. andcounting

    berselius,

    Are you alright? Aside from personal injury, I have found that a car being totaled is definitely the way to go when insurance is concerned. Everything is a lot simpler.

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  93. Author
    berselius

    andcounting,

    It was my wife’s car – they took her to the hospital after to do some scans and stuff but ‘only’ a mild concussion, and some bruises/scrapes from the airbags. It was a four car accident and luckily no one was more seriously hurt than that (though she’s definitely still sore/exhausted). Luckily she wasn’t at fault – was stopped at a red light and another accident basically slid into her. We’re glad her dog wasn’t in the car with her at the time, she had been running errands with him for most of the day but left him at home when she was heading to the gym. Long overnight drive from Santa Fe for me last night. The insurance declaring it totaled has definitely made things easy, and it was fun to discover how much value our Prius maintained over the past four years, for some reason 🤔

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  94. andcounting

    berselius,

    Overall good news, all things considered. Yeah, as far as I understand four years is like car arbitration years, great value there, (dying laughing).

    But seriously, it’s a good idea to keep a running list of everything this experience has cost you guys: missed work, extra driving, hospital bills, extra meals dining out, mental anguish, physical pain. Basically, how much would you pay to make it so none of it ever happened? That’s the amount you want to make sure you get in a settlement.

    /TEDtalk

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  97. Rice Cube

    Random box score tidbits

    Nico – 3-6, 3 runs
    Dansby – 0-3, but 3 BB and 2 runs (RIP hitting streak)
    Happ – 3-4 with 2 BB
    Belli – 3-5 and a non-homer RBI
    Mancini – 1-5 but 3 big RBI
    Wisdom – 3-5 with 3 RBI too
    Hosmer – 2-5 and 2 RBI

    Adbert – 2.2 IP, gave up that homer but 5 Ks

    Pretty solid team win, shouldn’t have let the Reds score but whatever

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  98. BVS

    Flipped over to the Detroit-Houston game. Boy it bugs me when play-by-play announcers can’t bother to pronounce Latino names correctly. Dubón isn’t even that difficult.

    Then again, Detroit hasn’t had good announcers since Ernie Harwell, so what should I expect?

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  105. Rice Cube

    Eating popcorn dot gif

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  107. Author
    berselius

    My amateur meteorologist tea leaf reading is that they won’t be able to get today’s game into the window between the current storm system and the giant system following up behind it. But maybe there’s an advantage to the pitch clock speedup of games in this situation (dying laughing).

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  118. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    At this point, I don’t even think it’s worth it to have a rooting interest in games involving divisional opponents unless they’re playing the AL. Come the end of the season we may just as likely wish the Mets’ or Braves’ records are worse as we wish for the Cards or Brewers to suck. I have to say, I love the sheer randomness of the out-of-town scoreboard every day. Cards/Blue Jays to start the season was pretty wild.

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  119. Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    Oh I just do it because I’m bored (dying laughing)

    The season usually shakes out as the baseball gods intended anyway whether I want it to or not.

    Since we have an impromptu day off in addition to tomorrow’s day off, anyone want to do a quick pod to drop before the next homestead? Not a problem if we have to wait a week or so either, just want to generate content for a wee bit of momentum although this is more a hobby than monetization

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  120. Rice Cube

    Rice Cube:
    andcounting,

    Oh I just do it because I’m bored (dying laughing)

    The season usually shakes out as the baseball gods intended anyway whether I want it to or not.

    Since we have an impromptu day off in addition to tomorrow’s day off, anyone want to do a quick pod to drop before the next homestead? Not a problem if we have to wait a week or so either, just want to generate content for a wee bit of momentum although this is more a hobby than monetization

    WTF homestead = homestand you stupid autocorrect

    But I guess I could use 40 acres and a mule to set up my own baseball field

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  126. Rice Cube

    Athletic podcast guys just suggested clock off for any potential final pitch of the game (i.e. 3 balls with bases loaded in walkoff situation, or two strikes on the final AB) and I don’t immediately think that’s a terrible idea

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