“Aramis Ramirez, in typical style, is at first base. I mean, no excuse why a Major Leaguer is not at seconed base on that ball.” — Bill Schroeder, Brewers color commentator
In last night’s 7-4 Cubs victory over the Brewers, Schroeder took a shot at Aramis Ramirez after Rickie Weeks first error of the night. A popup was misjudged by Weeks and Ramirez ended up at 1st base. As I was watching highlights from around MLB this morning, I caught that video and was surprised to hear that from Schroeder. My initial thought was, no way. I wanted to come here and bash him for something silly.
Before I did that though, I wanted to look at a couple other Ramirez doubles to see how quickly he got to 2nd base after making contact. Turns out it took him about 9 seconds to get to 2nd base. After watching a couple videos, I had a general sense of how long it takes Ramirez to go from home to second after making contact. I went back to the Weeks’ errors video and timed it. It was 9 seconds until Nyjer Morgan picked up the baseball.
Yeah, Schroeder has a point. Ramirez definitely should have been at 2nd base. To be fair to Schroeder who I actually enjoy listening to at times, he bashed Rickie Weeks just seconds before doing the same to Aramis Ramirez. Weeks should have caught the pop up. Everybody would agree there’s no excuse not to make that play. I’d like to think that everybody would also agree that Weeks is human and is going to make mistakes in the field. Easy defensive plays are going to be missed. It happens to every player at one point or another. No idea why it happens, but it does.
However, running out of the box really isn’t like the inevitable mistakes that come in the field. You can run hard all the time assuming good health so I understand where Schroeder is coming from and agree with him. There’s no reason that a Major League not named Molina should not be at 2nd base on that one. None.
That’s not so much why I’m talking about this specific play. We often hear announcers, the media and fans get on players for a lack of hustle. Fans complain all the time about singles that could have been doubles, doubles that could have been triples, and many other things when it comes to something like hustling. Often times what is ignored is the health of the player, but seven games into the season, I don’t really think health is an issue.
What I want to talk about is the impact that these lapses that players have that result in one less base being taken. It seems to me our emotions toward a player should be directly proportionate to their value. It doesn’t make any sense to treat a player who has no value as if he’s a great player. He still deserves to be treated with respect. The impact of various events in baseball is understood by all baseball fans.
Awhile back I mentioned that some of the non-stats people could look at the weights in wOBA in terms of how excited you get after each one occurs. Fans, in general, do a very good job of measuring the overall value of a player based on positive events, but greatly misunderstand the value of an event which has a negative impact on run scoring. Think about how you excited you are when a single or a double is hit with nobody on base. Don’t even consider the score. Personally, a single draws my attention. Maybe they’ve got something going. Still a long way from scoring. A double and I’m thinking a well placed single is going to score that run. The runner is still a long way from scoring. Maybe for you, a single is just an event and a double is really awesome. I don’t know. I think we do a pretty good job of understanding the run expectation chart without even understanding what it is.
Here’s the run expectancy chart for 1999 through 2002. Offense was up then so it’s probably a bit lower now, but we’re going to use those numbers anyway. It doesn’t really matter what the exact numbers are anyway. We see that 1.189 runs are expected when a runner is on 2nd base with no outs while .953 are expected if he’s on 1st. That’s a difference of .236 runs. With one out, there is a difference of .152 runs and with two outs a difference of .093 runs. The average is .16 runs. The average single with nobody on base is worth .592 runs. Knowing the difference already, we know the average value of that runner being on 2nd with nobody outs and nobody else on base is .753.
It’s the .59 that gets us excited, the .75 that gets us even more excited. So why does -.16 make people so angry? It really does seem to me that for some people failig to reach 2nd base is such an awful thing that it erases all value to them. It does not. Ramirez absolutely should have been at 2nd base last night. Poor baserunning by him. Poor effort. Poor judgment.
Let’s say Ramirez did what he did last night 20 times this season. That’s ridiculously high. A mor realistic number would probably be 5, but we’re going with 20 for a reason. If it happened 20 times, in that situation, it would cost the Cubs 3.2 runs all season long. Since there are different base/out states we should look at them too.
The base/out state is what bases the runners are on and how many outs there are when the batter is at the plate. There’s only 24 of them if you think about it so we can actually figure out how much a single in all situations would cost the team if it were not turned into the easy double it should have been. That value is what is referred to as the run value.
The average run value of the single is .49 runs while the double is .79 runs. Here we see the value of taking that additional base has increased significantly. Rather than the .16 runs when nobody was on base like in last night’s game, it’s doubled in value.
It’s still less than the single by quite a bit and only deserving of an emotional outburst less than what we’d show on the average single, which isn’t much. Even using .3 runs at 20 times per season, it costs the team 6 runs. 6 runs over the course of a season is huge by the way. As much as we complain about lineups, there’s really nothing that can be done in a lineup to generate 6 runs. Not even half as many runs in fact so if he did that 20 times then, yeah, the anger that we see after doing it once would be more than deserved. But he’s not going to do it 20 times.
If you think this is a regular occurrence, I encourage you to count the times he could have made it to 2nd base. Assuming good health, it takes him about 9 seconds to get to 2nd base. Obviously it depends on where the fielder fields the ball, but I assume all of you can guess at how long it would take to get a throw in. It’s usually not very long.
After you’ve counted the number of times it happened, multiply it by .3 and that will tell you how many runs it cost the Cubs during the entire season. Then ask yourself if it’s something that deserves so much outrage from the fans and media.
There’s nothing wrong with pointing out something that should have happened, but blowing it out of proportion does nobody any good. Far too often I see Cubs fans so outraged with a player over this that I just cannot figure out why. It’s not just Cubs fans either. I’m not singling out this fan base. It’s all fan bases, but it’s something that shouldn’t turn so many fans from liking a good player to literally hating his freaking guts.
Comments
False.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I think many people would disagree with that statement. They may be wrong, but the perception is that Ramirez (and Soriano and any other lazy Latino) does it ALL THE TIME. So it would be interesting to know how many times Ramirez didn’t take the extra base when it was available vs. the league average (because let’s face it, it’s not just the Latinos that assume pop flies will get caught or whatever).
Aisle424Quote Reply
This is somewhat related…have you guys noticed when playing baseball video games that when a pitch is popped up into fair territory, the batter throws down his bat and just l-o-llygags to first, even though there’s like a 1-in-100 chance that the random error generator will let it drop? The lazy Latin phenomenon is programmed right into video games!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I think many people would disagree with that statement. They may be wrong, but the perception is that Ramirez (and Soriano and any other lazy Latino) does it ALL THE TIME. So it would be interesting to know how many times Ramirez didn’t take the extra base when it was available vs. the league average (because let’s face it, it’s not just the Latinos that assume pop flies will get caught or whatever).[/quote]But by doing that sort of analysis, you’re ceding a flawed premise, namely that one can quantify what might have happened. You can show the likelihood of something happening, but that’s not what the person seeking the numbers you’re suggesting would be asking for. Even in MB’s piece, it’s based on time, which really only proves something if events occur in a vacuum. There could be any number of reasons why, given the same amount of time to get to second base, Ramirez didn’t get there. To chalk it all up to laziness oversimplifies the cause. The simplest explanation is not always the best one. There would just be way too much noise in these numbers for them to prove anything at all. What MB’s done here is really all you need. How many times a player does it is pointless; it doesn’t really count for much, so it’s not worth getting mad about.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I think many people would disagree with that statement. They may be wrong, but the perception is that Ramirez (and Soriano and any other lazy Latino) does it ALL THE TIME. So it would be interesting to know how many times Ramirez didn’t take the extra base when it was available vs. the league average (because let’s face it, it’s not just the Latinos that assume pop flies will get caught or whatever).[/quote]Yeah, the league average is important here just as it is with other stats. With hit f/x we may be able to sort through the data and figure it out, but right now we’d have to watch every game to know or trust others to properly assign which ones are which.
To disprove the notion that he does it all the time, all one really needs to look at are the number of doubles he’s hit. His 162-game average is 36. That’s a lot of freaking doubles. To say he does it 20 times means he should be hitting 56 doubles per season and nobody on earth could ever do that on a regular basis. I could buy that it happens 5 times in a single season. My guess is that it probably happens only 2 to 3 times, but 5 isn’t a stretch. I just don’t think anybody can actually look at Ramirez’s stats and say he should be hitting 20 more doubles per season. Al Yellon might, but this is a guy who thinks putting Kerry Wood in the rotation is thinking outside the box.
Mostly though, what irritates me is that there isn’t a proportional response from the fans for this. OK, he should have been at 2nd base. He isn’t. How much anger is that worth? He’s still on base. He’s only one base behind. The difference isn’t that much.
I’ve come to the conclusion over the last year that the fans actually do have a pretty good idea of what’s going on when it comes to positive events, but no clue whatsoever when it comes to negative events. This isn’t just true for the “lazy” plays. The stolen base and caught stealing. Most fans don’t understand how many stolen bases are required to make it worth it. Not that that’s a bad thing, but we hear from so many fans about stealing bases, stealing bases, and stealing bases. The sac bunt. Another negative event that doesn’t draw the anger from the fans.
It’s weird.
mb21Quote Reply
I thought it was funny how Schroeder tore two players apart on one play. He’s not shy to do that and most of the time he’s right. Weeks completely fucked that play up. He wasn’t even close. Ramirez helped him out. You gotta love baseball. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I thought it was funny how Schroeder tore two players apart on one play. He’s not shy to do that and most of the time he’s right. Weeks completely fucked that play up. He wasn’t even close. Ramirez helped him out. You gotta love baseball. (dying laughing)[/quote]That Brewers defense is really bad. Schroeder’s got a lot of material there. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
One thing that doesn’t seem to be taken into account here is how often do you see a pop-up that should be easily caught hit the turf? You don’t even see it happen for your team 20 times a season let alone one player. That could easily be the only time this season that Aramis pops up a sure out that isn’t fielded. We are also negating the fact that he’s at least getting on base in a situation where he should have been out so even the single has value.
I would also contend that Morgan may have acted to pick the ball up sooner and throw it to 2nd if Ramirez had been beating ass towards 2nd. Morgan had the play in front of him and could see Aramis wasn’t tearing up the turf so he reacted accordingly as well. Isn’t it also possible that Aramis didn’t run full out because he wasn’t going to risk getting thrown out at second on what was a gift play? I would have been way more pissed at him for getting thrown out at 2nd than for not running like a maniac. Having said that, I’d like to see guys run hard on every play but I know over the course of 162 games there are going to be times it doesn’t occur.
melissaQuote Reply
Where is the effect Ramirez has on the children on your Run Expectancy Chart, huh?
AndCountingQuote Reply
I hate Braun but…
(dying laughing)
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
Carlos Silva —–> Yankees (MiLB contract)
AndCountingQuote Reply
I think Prince Fielder might be a legitimate threat to kick Lloyd Braun’s douchey ass.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
AC ——> 2 hours behind.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Carlos Silva —–> Yankees (MiLB contract)[/quote]
You don’t read every word.
/Rob G.’d
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I think Prince Fielder might be a legitimate threat to kick Lloyd Braun’s douchey ass.[/quote]Braun seems like one of those guys just douchey enough that no one ever bothers to kick his ass. Like . . . Prince Humperdink maybe. He would make a good Prince Humperdink.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Braun seems like one of those guys just douchey enough that no one ever bothers to kick his ass. Like . . . Prince Humperdink maybe. He would make a good Prince Humperdink.[/quote]Great hitter, but I despise Lloyd Braun.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Melissa, excellent points.
mb21Quote Reply
I’d just like to say that Adam’s Cubby bear facepalm looks even better on the t-shirt. I just got it and it’s pretty fucking cool. Awesome job, Adam. Just perfect.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]I hate Braun but…
[/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
I’m not suggesting we actually do a study, but it would be interesting to see how often Ramirez “(dying laughing)lygags” vs. the league average. I don’t even think it is something that could be determined other than watching every single play of every single game from multiple angles to determine if a player advanced the “correct” number of bases.
Also, as Melissa pointed out, the play would have changed if Ramirez had been busting out of the box and maybe Nyger does throw Ramirez out at 2nd. We can never really know that, so any data we retrieved from such a time-consuming and basically pointless excercise would be terribly flawed. That said, if I was a deity or a Q or something and I could immediately make that comparison, it would be interesting to see how “lazy” various players are compared to everyone else.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’d just like to say that Adam’s Cubby bear facepalm looks even better on the t-shirt. I just got it and it’s pretty fucking cool. Awesome job, Adam. Just perfect.[/quote]Thanks, I’m glad it turned out well. I just hope you’re prepared for the inevitable day when someone uses a discount code to buy one.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Also, (dying laughing) at (dying laughing)lygagging.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Mostly though, what irritates me is that there isn’t a proportional response from the fans for this.[/quote]
You are looking at it wrong, mb. The response of the common fan in these situations is completely expected.
They are responding to situations that they feel prove what they already know. ARam is lazy, this play proves it beyond all doubt to me (the common fan), get very angry because I am angry that he is and has always been lazy and this proves it once again, allowing me to access years worth of anger over perceived laziness right now for good reason. It is not like I can get mad at him for not taking good swings while he in the on deck circle, so I have to wait until this laziness is easily displayed to allow release of this unfounded anger.
Theriot getting thrown out on the bases does not make me (TCF) mad as it proves to me he is trying hard and being scrappy. He dove at 7 different singles tonight, he was trying really hard and that is what matters to me as I know he is not the greatest player ever, so he has to give it 110% everyday and as a common guy I can appreciate that.
Most people remember what they want to remember to align with their expectations of future events. The common fan has bought into the hype, ARam is lazy, Z is crazy, Wells is a playboy who doesn’t take the game seriously, Castro will make rookie mistakes his whole career, Koyie plays the game the right way and that helps pitchers win games, RBIs are important, and Lou forgot how to manage and that is why the Cubs lost during the last 2 seasons. All of that stuff is bullshit, but people long for proof of what they think they know.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’m not suggesting we actually do a study, but it would be interesting to see how often Ramirez “(dying laughing)lygags” vs. the league average. I don’t even think it is something that could be determined other than watching every single play of every single game from multiple angles to determine if a player advanced the “correct” number of bases.
Also, as Melissa pointed out, the play would have changed if Ramirez had been busting out of the box and maybe Nyger does throw Ramirez out at 2nd. We can never really know that, so any data we retrieved from such a time-consuming and basically pointless excercise would be terribly flawed. That said, if I was a deity or a Q or something and I could immediately make that comparison, it would be interesting to see how “lazy” various players are compared to everyone else.[/quote]But there simply no way to quantify “(dying laughing)lygagging,” because it’s basically judging what a person’s intent was based on outcomes, and that’s entirely impossible and prone to the worst sort of confirmation bias. Even beginning to research it cedes the premise that Ramirez does indeed (dying laughing)lygag, and I’m not willing to grant that, not because I think he doesn’t, but because I believe there’s no way to judge intent based on outcome.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder] confirmation bias [/quote]
That was the phrase I was trying to remember the whole damn time I was making my post. Thanks, MO.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
Melissa, there’s another reason why you shouldn’t have sent your friend a link to MB21’s article about replacement level restaurants when she checked in from TGIF. She would never have had enough time to read it before being brought the check.
/catching up
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]That was the phrase I was trying to remember the whole damn time I was making my post. Thanks, MO.[/quote]I think that’s exactly what’s at play in a lot of common fan misconceptions about the character of certain players, and it doesn’t help that the local beat guys manufacture narratives like it’s their job.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Great points here by everybody except SK who only ever comes around here to be mean. (dying laughing)
For what it’s worth, if we had the amount of time it took everyone to get to a certain base and when the ball was picked up, we could quantify it well enough. There would be some mistakes, but that’s true with most stats. Overall though, we would see who is (dying laughing)lygags more than others.
game thread up: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/games/cubs-at-brewers-4-9-2011.html
mb21Quote Reply
I think fans in general are probably right about which players are more lazy than others, but it’s the degree to which they get angry that irritates me. Also, it’s just not something that bothers me. It’s not a negative enough event that it matters to me. That’s partly because it just doesn’t happen often enough compared to the average player. Everybody loafs out of the box on a play like Ramirez hit. The question is how many of them end up at 2nd base? We’ll never know.
mb21Quote Reply
BB, I think the point is still worth noting that the negative impact of the perceived laziness, even over the course of several years, is minimal. Even if everyone’s perceptions of Aramis and Soriano were correct, the net effect would still be laughably insignificant.
So why get so upset? Because it feels good to blame someone. Not just for the Cubs’ failures, but for everything wrong with the world today. Ramirez is just a microcosm.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder] it doesn’t help that the local beat guys manufacture narratives like it’s their job.[/quote]
Agreed, these opinion as fact pieces are everywhere and being shoved down the common fans throat like it was Old Style.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
I like your method, MB, but you lost me with your conclusion that Ramirez’s lack of hustle makes the fans ‘hate his guts.’ Maybe it’s just the people I know, but everyone has a positive impression of Aramis, cock fighting aside. This stuff annoys me and I think that’s appropriate, but I’ve never known someone who turned against Ramirez because he didn’t hustle enough.
EddieQuote Reply