Through the month of April the Cubs have allowed 31 more runs than they’ve scored. This differential ranks 15th in the NL. Only Houston (-34) has been worse. In the American League the White Sox (-37) and Twins (-57) have been worse. Even the Pirates (-24) have been better. The differential between runs score and allowed is important.
Runs scored and runs allowed determines who wins and loses. Teams that have a good differential are almost always the better teams. Having the second worst differential in the NL, even this early in the season, isn’t a sign of good things to come.
Using runs scored and allowed we can calculate an expected winning percentage. Bill James called it the Pythagorean expectation because the formula he used reminded him of the Pythagorean Theorem. It’s since been altered as better predictors were found. The formula James used was this: Win% = RS2 / (RS2 + RA2).
It was later discovered that if you use an exponent around 1.8 you get better results. There’s yet another method that is called PythagenPat, which was developed by David Smyth and Patriot. That method uses an exponent based on the run scoring environment of each team. The formula for PythagenPat is this: RSx / (RSx + RAx) where x = RPG.287. RPG = runs per game (runs scored and runs allowed divided by the number of games).
Early in a season these predictors aren’t going to be that accurate. Imagine a 12-12 team who has scored 120 runs and allowed 120 runs. In the 25th game they get beat 16-2. Before that game their Pythag was .500 (same number of runs scored and allowed). After that one game PythagenPat drops to .461.
However, that doesn’t mean we can’t learn something from it. Obviously after 25 or so games we’ve learned something about the team and the teams they’ve played. Not enough to draw conclusions about the strength of the teams, but we’ve learned something.
I looked back at all the teams from 2001 through 2010. I calculated their Pythag% through April and then for the rest of the season. There are 300 teams over these 10 seasons. If we a look at the difference in Pythag between April and May through the end of the season we can get an idea of how much a team improved or worsened.
In 2006 the Minnesota Twins got off to a horrible start in April. After the calendar turned to May the Twins were unbelievably good. They had the largest positive differential between April Pythag and Rest of season Pythag at .321. Only four other teams were higher than .194: 2001 A’s (.289), 2004 Giants (.231), 2004 Expos (.225), 2002 Braves (.206). On the other end you also had five teams who worsened similar amounts: 2005 Marlins (-.278), 2001 Red Sox (-.262), 2009 Pirates (-.252), 2008 Diamondbacks (-.223), and the 2010 Rays (-.208).
That doesn’t tell us a whole lot though. That just tells us what we already knew: teams regress towards the mean. We expect to find that the teams with the most improvement would be teams with a PythagenPat under .500 and vice versa. The five teams at the top had an average PythagenPat W% of .314. They got off to horrible starts. The bottom five were at .714. The .314 teams improved to .595 while the .714 teams were .469 the rest of the way. They were obviously very good teams that got off to horrible starts. The .714 teams were slightly worse than average.
The 36 teams that improved the most were all under .500. The 37th was .500 exactly. The 50 teams that had the largest negative differential were all over .500 in April. You know how they say you’re never as good as you are at your best or as bad as you are at your worst? Well, that’s what this is. Those who did exceptionally well in April were naturally going to get worse and the same is true with the teams who performed the worst in April.
The numbers tell us what expected to find. We’re more interested in using the data to see how teams similar to the Cubs performed the rest of the season. The Cubs scored 106 runs and allowed 137. The Cubs PythagenPat is .381. That’s about a 62 win team over 162 games. Obviously the Cubs aren’t that bad. We know teams regress toward the mean and we expect the Cubs will too. The Cubs performance in April is equal to what the 2001 White Sox and 2002 Phillies did. Among all 300 teams, those White Sox and Phillies teams had the 259th and 260th lowest PythagenPat in April. The Cubs current PythagenPat ranks in the bottom 13.3% of what all teams have done in April from 2001-2010.
If we break the 300 teams into 6 different groups it gives us an idea how much each team in each range improved or worsened. The top 50 teams had an average PythagenPat of .656 in April and .530 after. It’s .573 and .524 for the next 50 and on down to the final 50 which is .344 in April and .438 after. That’s the group the Cubs would fit into. They improved by .094 points the rest of the way.
The Cubs have been better than the average team in this group. The 50 just above the Cubs had a PythagenPat of .426 in April and .504 after (improvement of .078). The worst you were in April, the more you’ll likely improve the rest of the way and vice versa.
The 2011 Cubs are somewhere in between the final group and the one before it. A typical team in a similar situation over the last decade has improved by about .085. We can’t just conclude that the Cubs will have PythagenPat of about .465 the rest of the way because of this. There’s a great deal of uncertainty involved. Also, the teams at the bottom were on average, significantly worse teams than those above them when the season began. This is evident by how well some of the teams in the group performed the rest of the season.
The Cubs sit at 12-14 right now and have some ground to make up already. The three teams ahead of the Cubs were all projected to win around 85 games. The Reds and Brewers are each about a game or two behind that pace while the Cardinals are ahead of that by a few games. Let’s say the Cubs have to win 88 games to reach the playoffs. The Cubs will have to play .559 baseball the rest of the season to get there. That’s roughly 91 wins over a full season. In order for the Cardinals to get to 88 wins they only need to play .533 baseball the rest of the way.
There were a few teams around where the Cubs would rank in PythagenPat who did significantly improve. The 2006 Twins went from .305 to .626. The 2004 Giants went from .351 to .582. The 2005 Phillies went from .375 to .579. There were several other teams too. In fact. among the 90 worst in April Pythag, 16 of the went on to have a Pythag the rest of the season that was .559 or higher. 20 were .550 or higher. That’s a surprisingly high percentage (17-22%).
I wouldn’t count on it, but enough teams have done it that it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising. It’s a safe bet that nearly every one of those teams was better than the 2011 Cubs when the season began though. I can’t be sure without spending more time on this. Since we’re only talking about a month it just seems a waste of time to spend any more time on it than I already did.
Comments
McNutt perfect through 1 with 1 K
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Mcnutt perfect through 2 with 1 k
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
False. The 2007 Diamondbacks made the playoffs with a negative run differential, so the 2011 Cubs can too. Prove me wrong.
/Yellon’d
PerkinsQuote Reply
Mcnutt 3 IP 1 h 2 ks
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
lineup
Fukudome
Barney
Castro
Ramirez
Soriano
Byrd
Pena
Soto
Coleman
BerseliusQuote Reply
mcnutt 4IP 2 H 1 BB 3 K 0R
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
mcnutt 5 ip 2 h 1 bb 0r 4 k
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
mcnutt 6 ip 2h 1bb 4k
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
mcnutt gives up hits and run currently.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]mcnutt gives up hits and run currently.[/quote]
BUST
BerseliusQuote Reply
Bjax has been slumping
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Great stuff, mb.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Great sports day
Thunder Grizz
Cubs D backs
Celtics Heat
Caps Lightning
WWE Extreme Rules
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Wow, Pujols is playing 3B today!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Fukudome = leadoff double.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Nice little double for Dome
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Howdy SK!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Wow, Pujols is playing 3B today![/quote]
Like starting or injury reason?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Wow, Pujols is playing 3B today![/quote]I think that’s a mistake in the box score. He was playing 1B when I was watching.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Nice – kosuke gets his second XBH of the season.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
It feels weird to see a man on third and have castro up with less than 2 outs and not get the job done
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]I think that’s a mistake in the box score. He was playing 1B when I was watching.[/quote]
Some kid named “Hamilton” came in as a doubleswitch and is now playing 1B according to Gameday. Pujols moved to 3B to accommodate him.
I know Pujols is supposed to be a hated Cardinal etc. but it upsets me that he’s struggling so much to start this season.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m too lazy to look further than I did, but didn’t FanGraphs do a thing on the run differential that the Cubs were running and use it to caution that early season Pythags are too hard to use because blowouts can alter them too greatly?
The Cubs have 3 stinkers in the mix
11-2 to Houston (Russell)
12-2 to LA (Coleman)
11-2 to AZ (Dempster)
That’s 28 of those 31 runs in the differential.
I realize you made exactly that same point, but how many of those other teams kept limped thru April with a LOOGY getting a bunch of starts?
In no way do I think the Cubs are better than a .500 team so don’t I’m trying to argue that they’ll be ‘good’. It’s just that I struggle mightily to arrive at any kind of conclusion based on run differential this early.
Chris DickersonQuote Reply
You callin’ me a liar RC? (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Heat look challenging to bulls
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]You callin’ me a liar RC? (dying laughing)[/quote]
No, I’m just saying you don’t watch every inning (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
He’s come on pretty strong lately. 7 HR so far. Still only a .332 wOBA though.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Chris Dickerson]I’m too lazy to look further than I did, but didn’t FanGraphs do a thing on the run differential that the Cubs were running and use it to caution that early season Pythags are too hard to use because blowouts can alter them too greatly?
The Cubs have 3 stinkers in the mix
11-2 to Houston (Russell)
12-2 to LA (Coleman)
11-2 to AZ (Dempster)
That’s 28 of those 31 runs in the differential.
I realize you made exactly that same point, but how many of those other teams kept limped thru April with a LOOGY getting a bunch of starts?
In no way do I think the Cubs are better than a .500 team so don’t I’m trying to argue that they’ll be ‘good’. It’s just that I struggle mightily to arrive at any kind of conclusion based on run differential this early.[/quote]Correct.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Soriano is still on fire. Hope they don’t waste this leadoff double.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Adolfo should hit third. Of this i am sure
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Hope this lasts. I love it when Soriano catches fire. Figuratively.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Hope this lasts. I love it when Soriano catches fire. Figuratively.[/quote]
The sad part is that some Cubs fans really do wish he would catch fire literally.
Holy non-TOOTBLAN!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Holy shit with the backup on that play.
BerseliusQuote Reply
i see 5 balls on gameday
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Yay RBI (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yay Soto.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Soto in the 8th spot. I hate it with a fiery passion.
AndCountingQuote Reply
That was a pretty good AB from the pitcher there.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs loving that LF corner
BerseliusQuote Reply
Koyie grittily wore the wrong jersey (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Pop ups seem to be a theme this inning.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That was a really stupid pitch.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ryan Franklin lost another game for St. Louis? The best fans in baseball are going to kill that guy.
AndCountingQuote Reply
nice play by byrd
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Ryan Franklin lost another game for St. Louis? The best fans in baseball are going to kill that guy.[/quote]
Theriot started the ineptitude by dropping a routine pop-up. Glad he’s finally on the right side of the rivalry.
melissaQuote Reply
Ryan Theriot was a Cajun
He lived by his self in the swamp
He hunted alligator for a livin’
Just knock ’em in the head with a stump
The Louisiana law gonna get you Ryan!
It aint legal huntin’ alligator down in the swamp, boy!
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I like how Barney kept running into the wall there.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
anytime you can balk in a run you have to do it
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Oy vey Coleman
Suburban kidQuote Reply
The beauty of that balk was that the runner was 2/3 of the way to second before Coleman even looked at him. (dying laughing)
That was ugly.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Nice squeeze.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]The beauty of that balk was that the runner was 2/3 of the way to second before Coleman even looked at him. (dying laughing)
That was ugly.[/quote]Make up your mind.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Cubs lose.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Were those fans chanting sieg heil?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
this inning has gone on forever
dylanjQuote Reply
Running wild against Coleman/Soto.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
this inning has been a clinic in how not to play baseball
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Make up your mind.[/quote]In 1996 that would have been ironic. But in 2011 I just sound stupid.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Chris Dickerson]In no way do I think the Cubs are better than a .500 team so don’t I’m trying to argue that they’ll be ‘good’. It’s just that I struggle mightily to arrive at any kind of conclusion based on run differential this early.[/quote]
You can’t reach a conclusion, but it matters. Run differential in April absolutely is an indicator of how a team will play the rest of the season. Two-thirds of the teams who were below .500 in Pythag in April were also below .500 the rest of the season. The fact it’s only two-thirds is also evidence that the reliability of using it as a predictor at this point isn’t that good. Most teams that sucks in April suck the rest of the season.
I imagine all the teams who had a sizable negative run differential had only a few games throwing off the differential. The problem with considering such games important is that the Cubs are much more likely to give up 10, 12 or 14 runs than they are to score that many. Bad offense, average pitching, bad defense, bad baserunning.
I think this team struggles to win 70, but that’s not based on the run differential. That’s just based on them being bad at baseball.
mb21Quote Reply
MO’s head probably just exploded.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That bunt against the shift is the only way Pena has a prayer at getting on base these days.
melissaQuote Reply
3 of Pena’s 11 hits are bunts into the shift. That tells you right there how effective it is. It also tells you that Pena isn’t good at sports. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Pena may as well try to bunt every time up until they stop shifting because Melissa is probably right.
mb21Quote Reply
(dying laughing) little dribbler to SS and he still gets the lead man (Pena) at 2nd. I’m not sure I’ve seen that before.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) little dribbler to SS and he still gets the lead man (Pena) at 2nd. I’m not sure I’ve seen that before.[/quote]
I didn’t think Pena was that slow.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I didn’t think Coleman was this bad.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I didn’t think Pena was that slow.[/quote][quote name=Suburban Kid]I didn’t think Coleman was this bad.[/quote]False.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]I didn’t think Coleman was this bad.[/quote]He’s pretty much sucked.
mb21Quote Reply
Darwin Barney likes getting hits.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’ve really liked watching Barney so far this season.
mb21Quote Reply
Drew is outstanding defensively.
mb21Quote Reply
Well shit. Nice DP turn.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Nice play by Drew but I thought Castro was safe
melissaQuote Reply
Castro was safe by microseconds.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Now everybody blamed his old man
For making him mean as a snake
When Ryan Theriot was a boy his daddy would use him as alligator bait
Tie a rope around his waist, throw him in the swamp
Alligator bait in the Louisiana bayou!
Suburban kidQuote Reply
If Jeff Samardzija were wearing a prosthetic forehead instead of his Cubs cap, he’d make a perfect Klingon.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Sometimes that D-backs jersey looks like it says “Whacks”.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
QaPla!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Thts like 10 scoreless innings in a row for shark amirite?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
#8 batter win.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Hey, we got a ballgame here. And Geo’s bat is finally waking up
BerseliusQuote Reply
Geo does the job.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Ooooh…not a strike.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ooooh…not a strike.[/quote]Yeah, that was WHACK
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Fukudome saved Grabow’s skin there.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Darwinning.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Barney still likes hits.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Ugh. Soriano doesn’t know how to read sliders.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
What are the odds the Geo sees more pitches in his AB than Byrd and Pena see combined?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]What are the odds the Geo sees more pitches in his AB than Byrd and Pena see combined?[/quote]Starfruit
BerseliusQuote Reply
That’ll work.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
okay Cubs, let’s see how you blow it this time around (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
It would be nice if Marlon Byrd could continue to do more of that. Who the hell will want to trade for him if he has a .306 OBP?
mb21Quote Reply
Too bad Byrd doubled. Without the extreme shift, Pena can hit.
mb21Quote Reply
Too bad Byrd doubled. Without the extreme shift, Pena can’t hit.
mb21Quote Reply
I think I saw Wanda in the crowd at Chase.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I thought that was gone.
mb21Quote Reply
Ah fuck. ALmost got it.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Damn, Pena should have had one more biscuit for breakfast.
melissaQuote Reply
Pena still trails Darwin Barney and Koyie Hill in home runs.
mb21Quote Reply
Damn!
BerseliusQuote Reply
Don’t you just walk Soto here?
mb21Quote Reply
Baker on deck? Thought he tweaked a shoulder.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]What are the odds the Geo sees more pitches in his AB than Byrd and Pena see combined?[/quote]
Is that like an over/under?
PerkinsQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Don’t you just walk Soto here?[/quote]
They are NI-IBBing him.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think the people behind home plate were doing the macarena.
I’m full of observations!
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]I think the people behind home plate were doing the macarena.
I’m full of observations I thought that Wanda chick was a fake name or something. I can’t really remember that story now.
mb21Quote Reply
Can’t take one goddamned pitch. Fuck.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Gah
Suburban kidQuote Reply
He hit it hard so I don’t mind it. It was just right at someone.
mb21Quote Reply
Wish he’d hit it in the air.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I thought that Wanda chick was a fake name or something. I can’t really remember that story now.[/quote]Oh no. Wanda is a real person. She is a leathery-faced friend of Al’s.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
This team does not get cheated at plate. They take their swings.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I posted this a little while ago on Unobstructed Views: http://obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/cubs/cubs-have-been-consistently-bad-throughout-april.html
mb21Quote Reply
So, this team is at bath with a toaster status already? (dying laughing)
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]So, this team is at bath with a toaster status already? (dying laughing)[/quote]After their losing streak I put a picture of the Cubs 2007 division championship celebration up there. It only seems reasonable that after one loss it’s suicide time. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]After their losing streak I put a picture of the Cubs 2007 division championship celebration up there. It only seems reasonable that after one loss it’s suicide time. (dying laughing)[/quote]
You can always count on a measured and rational reaction around here. (dying laughing)
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]You can always count on a measured and rational reaction around here. (dying laughing)[/quote]That’s it. You’re outta here.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]You can always count on a measured and rational reaction around here. (dying laughing)[/quote]I don’t bother reading some of the worst Cubs blogs anymore, but I’m sure after the 2 game winning streak fans were thinking the team was headed to the World Series. Now they’re probably talking about how they’re the worst team ever.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t bother reading some of the worst Cubs blogs anymore, but I’m sure after the 2 game winning streak fans were thinking the team was headed to the World Series. Now they’re probably talking about how they’re the worst team ever.[/quote]
Correct.
Like, seriously, you’re right. Cubs fans are really kneejerk.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t bother reading some of the worst Cubs blogs anymore, but I’m sure after the 2 game winning streak fans were thinking the team was headed to the World Series. Now they’re probably talking about how they’re the worst team ever.[/quote]That’s assuming that they aren’t busy trying to move Castro to make room for Captain Overachiever.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
You know, I’m not sure Barney is overachieving. He has a 27.5% line drive rate and that will go down, but you’d expect his BABIP to be about .395. Instead, it’s just .354. He’s actually been unlucky so far. I think Barney probably ends up being slightly below average at the plate. Probably around a .315 wOBA, but the guy can field.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You know, I’m not sure Barney is overachieving. He has a 27.5% line drive rate and that will go down, but you’d expect his BABIP to be about .395. Instead, it’s just .354. He’s actually been unlucky so far. I think Barney probably ends up being slightly below average at the plate. Probably around a .315 wOBA, but the guy can field.[/quote]Yeah, his glove is solid, but the guy had a .708 career MiLB OPS; no way he can sustain his success at the plate.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, his glove is solid, but the guy had a .708 career MiLB OPS; no way he can sustain his success at the plate.[/quote]Way.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
No, he’s not going to have a .340 wOBA or whatever it is, but I don’t think he has to. I think if he can hit .310 he could easily be a league average player or better.
mb21Quote Reply
Is there a reason why the Cubs are playing the Giants even more than any other NL West opponent?
Two home series and one is SF.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]No, he’s not going to have a .340 wOBA or whatever it is, but I don’t think he has to. I think if he can hit .310 he could easily be a league average player or better.[/quote]He’s a career MiLB .286 hitter. I think once the league adjust, Barney will finish the year somewhere around .250-.260
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Hey, is team LOB% available anywhere? Wouldn’t this be a pretty good measure of team luck in scoring runs?
As you pointed out a few weeks back, the Cubs haven’t been scoring much in spite of having Babe Ruth lead off every inning. Not sure if that’s continued, but it sure seemed like it today. I wonder if their team LOB% is higher than normal.
fang2415Quote Reply
In an upcoming post I’m going to bitch about Starlin Castro. I’ve been virtually silent here for awhile, so I need to get this off my chest. (dying laughing)
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You know, I’m not sure Barney is overachieving. He has a 27.5% line drive rate and that will go down, but you’d expect his BABIP to be about .395. Instead, it’s just .354. He’s actually been unlucky so far. I think Barney probably ends up being slightly below average at the plate. Probably around a .315 wOBA, but the guy can field.[/quote]Um, wat. I’m going to go ahead and assume you’re joking since Ichiro, Choo, Holliday, and Jeter, are the only ones with Babips above .350 over the last five years…
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Um, wat. I’m going to go ahead and assume you’re joking since Ichiro, Choo, Holliday, and Jeter, are the only ones with Babips above .350 over the last five years…[/quote]
Fang, he’s talking about Barney’s BABIP based off of his line drive rate. A quick BABIP estimator is LD rate + .120. He’s not saying that Barney’s going to sustain either the LD rate or the BABIP, just commenting on the two numbers so far.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]He’s a career MiLB .286 hitter. I think once the league adjust, Barney will finish the year somewhere around .250-.260[/quote]I’d be surprised if he hits that low. I thought entering the season he was more than capable of .280/.350/.350 and I stand by that. I haven’t seen any reason to think he isn’t. His plate discipline numbers are quite good. He’s a very selective hitter at the plate. He makes as much contact as Castro and swings and misses less often. He doesn’t swing the bat much either. Carlos Pena never swings at pitches out of the zone and his overall swing rate is 46%. Soto has swung at 42% this season and just under 41% in his career. Barney is swinging at 41.9% of the pitches.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Fang, he’s talking about Barney’s BABIP based off of his line drive rate. A quick BABIP estimator is LD rate + .120. He’s not saying that Barney’s going to sustain either the LD rate or the BABIP, just commenting on the two numbers so far.[/quote]Correct. I’m just saying that his stats right now don’t reflect how well he’s hit the ball because he’s been unlucky with balls in play.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]In an upcoming post I’m going to bitch about Starlin Castro. I’ve been virtually silent here for awhile, so I need to get this off my chest. (dying laughing)[/quote]I’m looking forward to it.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Hey, is team LOB% available anywhere? Wouldn’t this be a pretty good measure of team luck in scoring runs?
As you pointed out a few weeks back, the Cubs haven’t been scoring much in spite of having Babe Ruth lead off every inning. Not sure if that’s continued, but it sure seemed like it today. I wonder if their team LOB% is higher than normal.[/quote]I would assume that all teams below average in runs leave a higher than average runners on base. Maybe not all, but most of them.
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t know of any site that has offensive LOB% for teams. You could calculate it rather easily though. Add up the hits, walks, hit by pitch, reach on errors and then subtract GIDP, CS. I think that’s it. That would give you runners on base.
mb21Quote Reply
This was why Pujols was at 3B for the last part of today’s game:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/05/01/cardinals-lose-david-freese-to-broken-hand/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Fang, he’s talking about Barney’s BABIP based off of his line drive rate. A quick BABIP estimator is LD rate + .120. He’s not saying that Barney’s going to sustain either the LD rate or the BABIP, just commenting on the two numbers so far.[/quote]Right, I got it. Based on his LD rate, we’d expect him to have an insane Babip.
On a slightly related note, I am now thinking of the tune to “Bye Bye Birdie” but with the words “Bye Bye Barney”.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know of any site that has offensive LOB% for teams. You could calculate it rather easily though. Add up the hits, walks, hit by pitch, reach on errors and then subtract GIDP, CS. I think that’s it. That would give you runners on base.[/quote]Wait a minute, that’s only the OB%, right? LOB% would be that over that plus runs.
If all pitchers tend towards 72% LOB, wouldn’t that be true for teams as well? I’d expect better teams to just plain get more runners on base, period, but with roughly the same LOB%.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Wait a minute, that’s only the OB%, right? LOB% would be that over that plus runs.
If all pitchers tend towards 72% LOB, wouldn’t that be true for teams as well? I’d expect better teams to just plain get more runners on base, period, but with roughly the same LOB%.[/quote]Hang on, that’s still wrong. But I see how to do it. Time for some sex with a spreadsheet…
fang2415Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)[/quote]
Holy crap. That was awesome.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
holy shit, i love dubliner. that was fucking money
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
Any response yet? I don’t even know which thread this is from because I don’t normally read BCB.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Wow, that was serious Irish pwnage.
In less funny news, team LOB% does look like it’s probably a decent measure of team luck, but the Cubs’ is only 74%, about 1.5% above average. Last year they stranded 73%. Padres so far this year have stranded 80%. Ouch.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Wait a minute, that’s only the OB%, right? LOB% would be that over that plus runs.
If all pitchers tend towards 72% LOB, wouldn’t that be true for teams as well? I’d expect better teams to just plain get more runners on base, period, but with roughly the same LOB%.[/quote]The GIDP, CS, and pickoffs removes runners from base. So if you have your hits and all that stuff, subtract those you get the number needed to calculate LOB% because you already have runs scored.
I’m making numbers up, but say you have 8 combined hits, walks, HBP and ROE and there are 2 combined CS,pickoffs and GIDP and the team scored 1 run. You had 8 runners reach base, but 2 were eliminated. So that’s 6 runners that could have scored. only 1 did. The LOB% would be 83.3%.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Wow, that was serious Irish pwnage.
In less funny news, team LOB% does look like it’s probably a decent measure of team luck, but the Cubs’ is only 74%, about 1.5% above average. Last year they stranded 73%. Padres so far this year have stranded 80%. Ouch.[/quote]Did you find that somewhere or did you calculate it yourself?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Hang on, that’s still wrong. But I see how to do it. Time for some sex with a spreadsheet…[/quote](dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Wow, that was serious Irish pwnage.
In less funny news, team LOB% does look like it’s probably a decent measure of team luck, but the Cubs’ is only 74%, about 1.5% above average. Last year they stranded 73%. Padres so far this year have stranded 80%. Ouch.[/quote]Fang, any interest in looking back and figuring out the LOB% for offense below and above average? The last 5 years would probably be good enough. I think we’ll find that teams below average strand more runners. It’s like bad pitchers not stranding as many runners as the good ones.
mb21Quote Reply
Holy shit y’all. Osama bin Laden’s dead.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Maybe im an asshole, but valentine, hershizer, and whoever the hell that bald dude is are unlistenable on espn sunday nite. They’ve repeated every blathered bullshit baseball cliche that has no statistical basis in the last 30 minutes. I can only guess that they believe it? altho that’s a former manager and pitcher, not that pitchers really know anything necessarily.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Holy shit y’all. Osama bin Laden’s dead.[/quote]
george w. bush can finally rest (dying laughing)
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Holy shit y’all. Osama bin Laden’s dead.[/quote]Good.
mb21Quote Reply
AMERICA!!!!
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
I don’t feel like that, bubs. He’s just a piece of shit who doesn’t deserve to live.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]AMERICA!!!![/quote]
….should have never given weapons, training, power, etc. to crazy fucking nut jobs like bin Laden and saddam hussein. But we really shouldn’t get into that. Hopefully it just means there will be less senseless death in the world now.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
The political talk will stop NOW.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]….should have never given weapons, training, power, etc. to crazy fucking nut jobs like bin Laden and saddam hussein. But we really shouldn’t get into that. Hopefully it just means there will be less senseless death in the world now.[/quote]Doubt it. Same stupid shit is happening in Libya right now. It’s all about satisfying an immediate need. It’s not like only government is that way though. People in general are. I see no reason to think it will ever end.
mb21Quote Reply
I wonder how much money the world has spent searching for bin Laden. It’s been since at least 1993 when they began searching for him. 18 fucking years to find a man. That’s crazy when you think about it. 18 years!
mb21Quote Reply
http://isosamabinladendead.com/
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]The political talk will stop NOW.[/quote]
correct, you, and i, we dont agree, often, but, on this, we do,,
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
How long has that site been active, b?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I wonder how much money the world has spent searching for bin Laden. It’s been since at least 1993 when they began searching for him. 18 fucking years to find a man. That’s crazy when you think about it. 18 years![/quote]
It was literally like finding a bearded needle in a very large haystack.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]How long has that site been active, b?[/quote]
(dying laughing), don’t know. Saw it on twitter from brooksbaseball
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]It was literally like finding a bearded needle in a very large haystack.[/quote]it was like finding a bearded needle in a very large stack of bearded needles. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t feel like that, bubs. He’s just a piece of shit who doesn’t deserve to live.[/quote]Don’t you like anything?
GBTSQuote Reply
All you need to know:
http://twitter.com/#!/OzzieGuillen/status/64899581141458946
GBTSQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
Kill Bin Laden….Let’s See What Happens
melissaQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
New post, wherein I channel my inner Yellon without irony:
http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/starlin-castro-get-your-act-together.html
AndCountingQuote Reply