Last week we had a heated debate and/or argument on here about the decisions the Cubs made about not trading certain players. I wanted to write something about this immediately, but wanted to collect my thoughts and not let emotion guide me. I also wanted to make sure I hadn’t just planted my feet and was arguing something just to argue. In other words, I needed to let it rest a couple of days and then think it over. That’s what I’ve done. (click the link below to continue reading)
The Cubs essentially had one of two decisions to make: rebuild or try to contend in the near future. Note that I did not say contend in 2012. I don’t believe the Cubs have to contend in 2012 to have made a good decision to move in the direction they have. I also do not believe that contending in the near future is necessarily the right decision, but it’s not really about what I think in terms of what the Cubs need or should do. The Cubs already made a decision and now it’s my turn to evaluate the forthcoming decisions to see if they help the Cubs achieve it.
This was in part due to the size of the market, the money they have coming off the books, the demands from the fans, and it’s a hell of a lot more fun trying to win than it is trying to win 5 or 10 years from now. Ask any GM and he’ll tell you the same thing. Like it or not, the enjoyment one gets out of doing a job affects their decisions. They’ve affected your decisions and they’ll continue to do so. It’s impossible not to. When confronted with two possibilities, neither of which ensures success, but one is more enjoyable than the other, you are going to choose to do the one that is more fun.
To be completely honest, I don’t know why the Cubs made the decision they did. I can only guess, but their reasons for trying to contend are mostly irrelevant. We can debate whether or not they should have went through a rebuilding project. It’s a valid debate. There are strong points in favor of just that and the opposite is true, as well.
However, the Cubs decided to move forward and whether or not subsequent decisions were right or wrong must consider that previous decision. Let’s use Starlin Castro and an extreme example to make a point. The Cubs announce today they have no interest in contenting for the next 25 years. Their stated goal, as of today, is to spend as little money over the next 25 years and then contend in 2036. Because of their new direction, it makes no sense whatsoever to not trade Starlin Castro prior to the start of next season or at next year’s trade deadline at the very latest. It wouldn’t even make sense to spend money on scouting or draft any players at all. After all, they’re not contending for 25 years and not one of the players drafted is still going to be playing baseball by the time they contend. You don’t have to agree with this decision the Cubs made, but you can’t argue that it’s not going to help them reach their goal.
On the other hand, if the Cubs say they want to contend in 2 years, it makes little to no sense to trade Starlin Castro. It makes no sense to abandon the minor league system or to stop spending money. You may think the Cubs should wait 25 years to contend, but keeping Castro and spending money helps them contend in 2 years. Without doubt, they are in a better position to reach their goal than if they did anything else.
The Cubs chose to try and contend. This means that those who disagree with that are going to disagree with many of their decisions. Disagreeing and claiming it’s right, wrong, good or bad are two entirely different things. One is an opinion and the other is an analysis of the decision and whether or not it helps them achieve their goal. There’s no point in arguing all decisions afterward are wrong when the Cubs are trying to accomplish something else. Basically, the Cubs choosing not to trade Sean Marshall must be evaluated in terms of whether or not it makes future teams better. We cannot reach the conclusions that not trading Marshall was a mistake because we thought they should rebuild. They chose not to do that and all decisions they made after took that into consideration. We must do the same.
We also have to be careful to not make the mistake that our opinion is right when there are many different ways to build a successful team. There’s certainly no guarantee that pushing forward will lead to success. There’s also no guarantee that rebuilding will lead to success down the road.
The caliber of prospects the Cubs would have acquired for most of their veterans would have been, for the most part, meaningless. They’d not have added any value now or in the future. There’s always a chance that a mid-level prospect just figures it out, but there’s a greater chance that a top prospect falls considerably. Second, it seems obvious to me at this point that teams that are willing to spend money and forget about rebuilding have greater success. How long have the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates been rebuilding? They’ve gotten top picks almost every year. Whatever good players they’ve had they were forced to trade because they couldn’t afford them. Despite the top picks and trading valuable players, neither team has won a damn thing. Right now the future looks brighter for both organizations, but I’m going to bet on a team willing to spend money winning before either of them do.
Finally, there really are multiple ways to achieve success. The Rays have a small payroll and have been successful by drafting as well or better than any other team. They’ve developed talent as well or better than any other team. Or so it seems anyway. I’m not convinced they are that superior to others in that department, but instead, I’m mostly convinced they’ve gotten lucky. We know over a small sample that a lot can happen and that means that a lot of top prospects can reach their potential all at the same time. On the other end we’ve seen the Cubs prospect rarely reaching their potential. It’s difficult for me to believe that in this day and age there’s really all that much difference between the organizational philosophies on drafting and developing. Perhaps there is some and that’s part of the difference, but luck is a big factor here, too.
The Pirates have undergone a rebuilding project seemingly every 5 years for the last couple decades. Time and again they have built their farm system up only to see it disappoint and eventually trade players from their MLB roster. They have a strong system now and could be good in the near future, but there’s probably a better chance they remain a .450 team.
The Yankees built their team in the mid 90s on homegrown talent and then outspent every team in order for it to remain successful. They’ve gotten older and older and those players have become less and less productive. Instead of rebuilding they’ve filled whatever holes necessary with free agents.
You can build a successful organization from within. You can build it by acquiring free agents. You can build it by being smarter than the other organizations (A’s awhile back). You can build it by focusing more on defense (Reds improved their defense by about 4-6 wins in one offseason alone). There are a number of ways to do it. No one way is right.
It’s equally important for us to recognize that decisions are not all bad or all good. After the 2006 season I thought signing Ted Lilly was a terrible decision. Turned out to be a pretty good one, but that’s not the point. Signing Ted Lilly was not a terrible decision at the time. He was probably paid about as much as he’s worth, but that also isn’t relevant. The point is that most decisions team makes have a certain chance of becoming a good one and a certain chance of becoming a bad one. Let’s take Lilly and say he was overpaid. I thought he was at the time and because of that I thought it was a bad deal.
Even though I knew at the time that there weren’t only 3 possible outcomes (good, ok, bad), that’s how I looked it at for some reason. It was either all good, just ok or all bad. The reality of the Ted Lilly signing is that it had a certain percentage chance of becoming a bad deal and probably an equal chance of it becoming a good deal. There was not a 0% chance it would become a good deal so thinking of it as a terrible contract was a mistake. The same is even true with Alfonso Soriano, though to a lesser extent.
The same is also true with the decisions we were arguing about. Choosing to rebuild isn’t the 100% correct decision to make. Continuing doing whatever it is this organization does is also not 100% correct. It’s somewhere in between and much closer to the 50% mark than we probably realize. If you factor in how difficult it is to rebuild I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Cubs made an informed decision in terms of probability, but that’s just a guess and not important to the discussion. Think of this more like a straight line and to the left you have a bad choice and to the right a good choice.
Choosing to keep Sean Marshall isn’t a terrible decision. I think it was unwise even if the team wants to contend in the near future, but we can’t box ourselves in to one possible outcome when there are, in reality, many. It’s entirely possible the Cubs see Carlos Marmol as an injury risk, or maybe they know something about his health, and keeping Marshall then becomes a good decision. I don’t know and I don’t really care, but the point is that something could easily happen that would suddenly make that decision appear to be a good one. It has a chance of becoming a good decision even if it’s more likely than not a poor one.
Kerry Wood signed a very friendly contract with the Cubs this past offseason. I want to say it was $1.5 million for just one year. To this point in the season, however, he’s been a replacement level player and worth only the league minimum. We said at the time what a great deal that was, but the truth was that even that one had potential to be a poor decision. Even if we factor in all that we knew at the time, it had that potential. One of the things we know is that relievers aren’t reliable and the small samples they pitch each season means that they could easily not live up to their contract, regardless of how friendly it may seem. But for the most part, we ignored that possibility much like we do with other decisions.
There’s a possibility the Cubs decisions at the deadline turn out to be good decisions. There’s a possibility they don’t, but we can’t treat the individual decisions separate of their initial decision to try to contend. We also can’t treat them as if there are only two outcomes.
I recently looked at a way the Cubs could contend next year that included them spending a shitload of money. In the next week or two I’m going to take a more realistic approach that spreads the money and acquisitions out over the next couple of offseasons. We’ll get a pretty good idea of what the Cubs may be thinking when they made their initial decision.
Comments
I’ve watched that home run by Campana about 50 times now and it doesn’t get old. Dude can fucking fly. Just over 13 seconds from contact to scoring. Wow.
mb21Quote Reply
bubbles====> starting mad men from scratch
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Soldier Field turf ——–> still utter shit
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/29557/new-warning-signs-on-soldier-fields-turf
BerseliusQuote Reply
J.A. Happ has allowed 5+ runs in eight consecutive starts
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]J.A. Happ has allowed 5+ runs in eight consecutive starts[/quote]
Would you consider that Happ-less?
Of course, you need a Happ to allow those 5+ runs so they’re not truly Happ-less 😛
Rice CubeQuote Reply
stopwatch says 13.8 to 13.9 seconds to get to home after contact. Campana did slow before home so he could have done it in 13.7 to 13.8.
14.4 seconds for Victorino’s earlier this season.15.4 for Utley’s. 15.2 for Jeter’s last year. Surprising he did it faster than Utley and Jeter could have gone slow out of the box because it looked like a routine fly out (deep). I don’t think he did, though.
Couldn’t tell when Gardner crossed the plate on his last year, but he was at 3rd base as quickly as Campana was today.
mb21Quote Reply
BJax batting average —> .291
If Campana were more than just a really really fast dude he could be more useful than just a pinch-runner, but his performance today sure shut me right up (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I still thought Campana’s throw after his amazing catch was (dying laughing) though
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17696683&topic_id=11493214
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17696683&topic_id=11493214[/quote]I could do that. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Colvin is back on the bench for some reason.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]BJax batting average —> .291
If Campana were more than just a really really fast dude he could be more useful than just a pinch-runner, but his performance today sure shut me right up (dying laughing)[/quote]
Not really fair. Campana very well could be a pretty good player. Not a great player, but something like a 2-3WAR type guy. I mean, super small sample size, but the eye test tends to agree that his fielding is outrageously good. He has completely ridiculous range. If he’s a true talent +15 guy in CF and can actually sustain something close to the 91wRC+ (say 85 or higher) he’s putting up right now along with his good baserunning. Then it’s quite likely he’s a young Juan Pierre type, which is extremely unappreciated now.
But if he played every day and hit 8th while playing amazing defense I’d be all for it, at least to see what he actually has. Cause him in CF and B-Jax in RF next year would, at least based on scouting reports, give us one of the best outfield defenses in the majors regardless of which of our guys we threw into LF everyday. And presumably would give us 2 to 3 WAR at every position.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Colvin is back on the bench for some reason.[/quote]Let the kids play. Future or no future, yesterday was by far the most entertaining game this season.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Not really fair. Campana very well could be a pretty good player. Not a great player, but something like a 2-3WAR type guy. I mean, super small sample size, but the eye test tends to agree that his fielding is outrageously good. He has completely ridiculous range. If he’s a true talent +15 guy in CF and can actually sustain something close to the 91wRC+ (say 85 or higher) he’s putting up right now along with his good baserunning. Then it’s quite likely he’s a young Juan (dying laughing) type, which is extremely unappreciated now.
But if he played every day and hit 8th while playing amazing defense I’d be all for it, at least to see what he actually has. Cause him in CF and B-Jax in RF next year would, at least based on scouting reports, give us one of the best outfield defenses in the majors regardless of which of our guys we threw into LF everyday. And presumably would give us 2 to 3 WAR at every position.[/quote]I’m wondering if Marlon Byrd wouldn’t have more value in right or left field at this point.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I’m wondering if Marlon Byrd wouldn’t have more value in right or left field at this point.[/quote]
Marlon Byrd has the same value wherever he plays, thanks to defensive adjustments.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Now I’m getting pissed at this A-Rod bullshit. From what I can tell, the guy has done nothing whatsoever wrong or even illegal. Even an MLB lawyer remarked about how he’d done nothing illegal or nothing to violate the morals clause. So for one thing, MLB had no business telling him he couldn’t play in these games in the first place. Second, he’s still done nothing wrong.
There’s no chance any suspension MLB might hand him will stand. None. And it shouldn’t. And after he’s cleared he should invite Bud Selig to come play poker with him.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Marlon Byrd has the same value wherever he plays, thanks to defensive adjustments.[/quote]I don’t know. I tend to think he’d hurt the club at pitcher or catcher.
binkyQuote Reply
I probably think Campana has a better shot of having a decent, but short career than most around here, but even I don’t think he could be as good as Doog is suggesting. I think he could be adequate and probably no worse than Soriano on an everyday basis. Probably even a little better.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]I’m wondering if Marlon Byrd wouldn’t have more value in right or left field at this point.[/quote]He’d lose some of his positional value, so it’d probably even out. But if we just got rid of Soriano over the offseason by any means necessary and shifted Byrd to LF an outfield of:
LF – Byrd
CF – Campana
RF – Jackson
Could presumably be pretty awesome. Byrd is, in a full healthy season, still close to a 4WAR player. Campana should be able to net around 2WAR and Jackson I imagine could be somewhere between 2 or 3 because his ability to get on base isn’t going to just disappear and he’d be a plus defender in RF.
That’d be a pretty damn good outfield. We’d obviously have to get Prince or Pujols at 1B and hope Randy Wells remembers how to throw 90MPH, but eh, I don’t think this team is all that bad if the right moves are made.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I don’t know. I tend to think he’d hurt the club at pitcher or catcher.[/quote]Yeah, those two positions are exceptions, but what berselius is saying is that the defense adjustments are made up for by the player improving or getting worse on defense. Take a SS and move him to 2nd base. His defensive adjustment decreases by .5 WAR, but his defense improves by 5 runs, or .5 WAR.
This is generally speaking of course.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I probably think Campana has a better shot of having a decent, but short career than most around here, but even I don’t think he could be as good as Doog is suggesting. I think he could be adequate and probably no worse than Soriano on an everyday basis. Probably even a little better.[/quote]I am suggesting he’d be a league average player. Maybe a tick better, say 2WAR maybe 3WAR in year where he has some luck.
DoogolasQuote Reply
I think there’s a very good chance Soriano is gone after this season.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I probably think Campana has a better shot of having a decent, but short career than most around here, but even I don’t think he could be as good as Doog is suggesting. I think he could be adequate and probably no worse than Soriano on an everyday basis. Probably even a little better.[/quote]
That says more about Soriano than it does about Campana (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]He’d lose some of his positional value, so it’d probably even out. But if we just got rid of Soriano over the offseason by any means necessary and shifted Byrd to LF an outfield of:
LF – Byrd
CF – Campana
RF – Jackson
Could presumably be pretty awesome. Byrd is, in a full healthy season, still close to a 4WAR player. Campana should be able to net around 2WAR and Jackson I imagine could be somewhere between 2 or 3 because his ability to get on base isn’t going to just disappear and he’d be a plus defender in RF.
That’d be a pretty damn good outfield. We’d obviously have to get Prince or Pujols at 1B and hope Randy Wells remembers how to throw 90MPH, but eh, I don’t think this team is all that bad if the right moves are made.[/quote]I think this is why you play Campy every day right now. I know the pressure is off to some degree, but he’s going to feel personal pressure to perform to make the club. Then we know what we have and can figure out if Sori is expendable.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]I am suggesting he’d be a league average player. Maybe a tick better, say 2WAR maybe 3WAR in year where he has some luck.[/quote]
Campana’s almost accumulated a full win now but I’m guessing most of it is from his baserunning. My lying eyes tell me his defense at the MLB level is sort of meh.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Campana has great speed but I still don’t think he’s more than a 4th/5th OF
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]I am suggesting he’d be a league average player. Maybe a tick better, say 2WAR maybe 3WAR in year where he has some luck.[/quote]I’d say 1-2 WAR and that’s if his defense is as good as the scouts say. So far it doesn’t appear to be, but his range has made up for other problems. UZR already has him worth 4.6 runs above average, DRS at +2 and Total Zone at +4. He’s a damn good fielder. Weak arm, but he makes up for it in other ways.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think there’s a very good chance Soriano is gone after this season.[/quote]
Soriano himself said it was 50-50, which pretty much means it’s a coin flip at this point.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I think this is why you play Campy every day right now. I know the pressure is off to some degree, but he’s going to feel personal pressure to perform to make the club. Then we know what we have and can figure out if Sori is expendable.[/quote]
Orange Guy was casting about saying that Soriano will be cut at the end of the season, and some article I read in the last week or so suggested that Soriano wouldn’t be too surprised if it happened either. If the Cubs are planning to cut him they might as well do it now. It’s not like there’s going to be a fan backlash at this point (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]That says more about Soriano than it does about Campana (dying laughing)[/quote]yeah, but if you’re going to get rid of Soriano, the Cubs have to add as much value back at league minimum or it makes no sense to just get rid of Soriano.
If Campana’s defensive scouting reports are accurate, I think he could easily be worth 1 win in the field and probably another .5 wins on the bases.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Soriano himself said it was 50-50, which pretty much means it’s a coin flip at this point.[/quote]
Is that like even odds?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Yeah, those two positions are exceptions, but what berselius is saying is that the defense adjustments are made up for by the player improving or getting worse on defense. Take a SS and move him to 2nd base. His defensive adjustment decreases by .5 WAR, but his defense improves by 5 runs, or .5 WAR.
This is generally speaking of course.[/quote]I get that, but Byrd’s UZR swing over his career has been pretty dramatic. He has the potential to have play extremely good defense, but hasn’t produced that as much this year, probably mostly because of his face being broken. But maybe moving him takes the pressure off and allows him to shoot back up into the high positive realm instead of the low negatives he’s been hovering around this year.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Orange Guy was casting about saying that Soriano will be cut at the end of the season, and some article I read in the last week or so suggested that Soriano wouldn’t be too surprised if it happened either. If the Cubs are planning to cut him they might as well do it now. It’s not like there’s going to be a fan backlash at this point (dying laughing)[/quote]I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs and Soriano reach some deal where he retires and the Cubs pay something like 30% of his remaining contract.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs and Soriano reach some deal where he retires and the Cubs pay something like 30% of his remaining contract.[/quote]
What incentive would Soriano have to do that?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs and Soriano reach some deal where he retires and the Cubs pay something like 30% of his remaining contract.[/quote]Does this mean you think he’s more hurt then he’s letting on? He really hasn’t seemed himself since they moved him from leadoff. Maybe he’s sick of it.
binkyQuote Reply
As for Byrd’s defense this season, I’m guessing he’s been every bit the same fielder he was last year and that the difference is the type of balls hit in his direction. Maybe he’s a slightly worse fielder given his age, but I didn’t think he was 10 runs better than average last year and he’s not 10 runs worse than that this year. He seems to get good jumps, has a solid arm and makes a few nice catches. Not sure how that all adds up, but I consider him a plus fielder. I’d say somewhere between 2 and 3 runs better than average is about right.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]What incentive would Soriano have to do that?[/quote]
I’d milk the Cubs for every cent that I have coming to me and I expect Soriano to do the same.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]What incentive would Soriano have to do that?[/quote]Save some embarrassment of some club just cutting him and paying him $54 million. It would be rather embarrassing to see some team willing to spend that kind of money just to get rid of you.
Also, the way he made it sound the other day is that he’s not sure if he’s coming back. That leads me to believe he’s thinking retirement.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]He’d lose some of his positional value, so it’d probably even out. But if we just got rid of Soriano over the offseason by any means necessary and shifted Byrd to LF an outfield of:
LF – Byrd
CF – Campana
RF – Jackson[/quote]
Personally I’d go:
LF Campana
CF Jackson
RF Byrd
because I don’t want them to ostracize BJax to a corner just yet and I don’t want Campana in RF because he’s got noodle-arm.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]He’d lose some of his positional value, so it’d probably even out. But if we just got rid of Soriano over the offseason by any means necessary and shifted Byrd to LF an outfield of:
LF – Byrd
CF – Campana
RF – Jackson
Could presumably be pretty awesome. Byrd is, in a full healthy season, still close to a 4WAR player. Campana should be able to net around 2WAR and Jackson I imagine could be somewhere between 2 or 3 because his ability to get on base isn’t going to just disappear and he’d be a plus defender in RF.
That’d be a pretty damn good outfield. We’d obviously have to get Prince or Pujols at 1B and hope Randy Wells remembers how to throw 90MPH, but eh, I don’t think this team is all that bad if the right moves are made.[/quote]Really? I don’t think Byrd’s bat will play well in left field; I’m not convinced BJ’s bat good for right until he adds power ( I could be wrong on this), and I think Campana would be well below average in center.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]As for Byrd’s defense this season, I’m guessing he’s been every bit the same fielder he was last year and that the difference is the type of balls hit in his direction. Maybe he’s a slightly worse fielder given his age, but I didn’t think he was 10 runs better than average last year and he’s not 10 runs worse than that this year. He seems to get good jumps, has a solid arm and makes a few nice catches. Not sure how that all adds up, but I consider him a plus fielder. I’d say somewhere between 2 and 3 runs better than average is about right.[/quote]He had a few OF assists last year as well, which are mostly luck, it seems to me, since it requires a certain situation and a certain type of hit. UZR seems to value those like crazy.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’d say 1-2 WAR and that’s if his defense is as good as the scouts say. So far it doesn’t appear to be, but his range has made up for other problems. UZR already has him worth 4.6 runs above average, DRS at +2 and Total Zone at +4. He’s a damn good fielder. Weak arm, but he makes up for it in other ways.[/quote]
I think he’d be closer to 2WAR, I mean, unless offensively he’s a sub 80wRC+ guy, he’s going to do enough to not cancel out that much of his fielding. All the metrics agree right now that his defense is fantastic. Now, I don’t think it’s +30 fantastic like UZR says, but I can see +15 or so being the case. And if his baserunning is say, +5, that’s 2WAR on its own. Throw in the +23 for position and replacement (I think it’s 25 but that’s if you play all 162) and you’re at 4.3WAR. I figure he’s a -15 or so bat. Which puts him around 2.8WAR.
Thing is, I don’t put quite as much stock into defense and baserunning because I think it’s silly to try to be that outrageously exact on something that has any amount of objectivity. So I’ll knock him another .5WAR or so, so in my mind he’s probably something like a 2.3WAR player.
That’s a few ifs. But based on what he’s shown me, he can pull that off. And if so, at 400K, I’d have no problem watching him go to work everyday.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Campana’s almost accumulated a full win now but I’m guessing most of it is from his baserunning. My lying eyes tell me his defense at the MLB level is sort of meh.[/quote]
Nope, his baserunning has been worth .1WAR, it’s mostly in his fielding and positional adjustments.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Really? I don’t think Byrd’s bat will play well in left field; I’m not convinced BJ’s bat good for right until he adds power ( I could be wrong on this), and I think Campana would be well below average in center.[/quote]Yeah, I think it’s an OK outfield. I want Brett Jackson in CF. I don’t care if that means putting a better fielder in RF or LF. Jackson is a guy you hope to develop to the point of becoming an all-star. He needs to stay in CF.
I’d say you probably get 5-6 WAR out of that outfield. Ryan Braun will give you that.
mb21Quote Reply
Campana probably is a below 80 wRC+ hitter. I’d be surprised if he’s actually better than that.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Yeah, I think it’s an OK outfield. I want Brett Jackson in CF. I don’t care if that means putting a better fielder in RF or LF. Jackson is a guy you hope to develop to the point of becoming an all-star. He needs to stay in CF.
I’d say you probably get 5-6 WAR out of that outfield. Ryan Braun will give you that.[/quote]So you’d have to really get something good out of your infield to keep up. Maybe this would be a transitional outfield until the season after next when Byrd comes off the books and there is a bigger bat free agent available
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Really? I don’t think Byrd’s bat will play well in left field; I’m not convinced BJ’s bat good for right until he adds power ( I could be wrong on this), and I think Campana would be well below average in center.[/quote]
I don’t think people realize how awful LF and RF have been this year. This isn’t the mid 2000’s. Byrd’s bat would play fine. The average LF bat this year has a .748OPS and the average RF has a .781OPS.
Byrd is doing better than that and has been for the last 5 years now. And I’m sure B-Jax can manage to be close enough to a just below average bat for a RF which he can make up for with the glove.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Save some embarrassment of some club just cutting him and paying him $54 million. It would be rather embarrassing to see some team willing to spend that kind of money just to get rid of you.
Also, the way he made it sound the other day is that he’s not sure if he’s coming back. That leads me to believe he’s thinking retirement.[/quote]
I don’t see any player walking away from 38 million dollars (roughly 70% of 54), mb. He might retire after he’s cut, since he’d still be owed that money, but thinking he’d cut a deal like that is Yellon-level fantasy.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Not sure how that all adds up, but I consider him a plus fielder. I’d say somewhere between 2 and 3 runs better than average is about right.[/quote]
That sounds about right to me too. IIRC his FSR was around 0 or 1
BerseliusQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Campana probably is a below 80 wRC+ hitter. I’d be surprised if he’s actually better than that.[/quote]You cannot possibly realize how awful a sub-80 wRC+ is then. Juan Pierre right now has a 78wRC+. And even with that in 107 games he’s only been worth -10.5 with the bat. That’s about -15 in a full season of 150 games. Which still puts Campana over 2WAR.
Byrd is almost a 4WAR player by himself, B-Jax and Campana can almost certainly average out to 2WAR apiece. That’s probably an 8WAR outfield.
Campana would have to make Koyie Hill look like Babe Ruth to be a bad enough hitter to cancel out his fielding and baserunning to the point that he’s a 1WAR player.
In all seriousness, if Juan Piere was fielding the way he did last year ,he’d end up being a 2WAR player this season. He’s just been awful in the field for whatever reason this year.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]I don’t think people realize how awful LF and RF have been this year. This isn’t the mid 2000’s. Byrd’s bat would play fine. The average LF bat this year has a .748OPS and the average RF has a .781OPS.
Byrd is doing better than that and has been for the last 5 years now. And I’m sure B-Jax can manage to be close enough to a just below average bat for a RF which he can make up for with the glove.[/quote]The RF OPS is actually quite good in the current environment; it’s just .01 below the first base position. LF is low, but it may be a fluke (last year, it was much higher).
ACTQuote Reply
Let’s all calm down about Campana. We’re talking about a guy with a career minor league line of .303/.359/..353 defense and baserunning can only make up for so much.
BerseliusQuote Reply
That wRC will only look worse as the league average returns to its norms over the past few seasons. I don’t think the current offensive environment is sustainable, though that’s just a gut feeling.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Let’s all calm down about Campana. We’re talking about a guy with a career minor league line of .303/.359/..353 defense and baserunning can only make up for so much.[/quote]
It’s shown that defense and baserunning can make up for that bad of a line. Hell, even worse of one, such as Pierre’s this year, could be made up for if he was playing the kind of defense that he did as recently as last season. I’m not saying he’s a savior, I’m saying his defense and baserunning are good enough to make him league average.
Pierre has a:
.277/.333/.326 line right now. And if he was a +12 fielder this year, then by the end of the season he’d have accumulated 2WAR.
It’s not that hard to be league average when you can play amazing defense and run the bases extremely well.
DoogolasQuote Reply
I don’t know, I just think its worth playing Campy consistently. Sure, it’s fueled by the excitement of his performance last night, but I think it’s worth it to the team to see what kind of numbers he can put up in MLB. if the answer is “meh” then they should look for a solid Soriano replacement in the off-season. Maybe that’s the plan either way. When the kid’s on, though, he’s fun as hell to watch. That alone may be valuable (in terms of ticket sales, which is the only statistic that much matters at this point in the season).
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Let’s all calm down about Campana. We’re talking about a guy with a career minor league line of .303/.359/..353 defense and baserunning can only make up for so much.[/quote]
And from what I’ve seen, he takes terrible routes to balls and he has a noodle-arm, so I have a hard time using the word “amazing” when characterizing his defense.
Aisle424Quote Reply
That said, he’s more fun to watch play than Soriano right now.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]That wRC will only look worse as the league average returns to its norms over the past few seasons. I don’t think the current offensive environment is sustainable, though that’s just a gut feeling.[/quote]
It’s unfair to assume an uptick in production from the league and just disclude random players like Campana or even Pierre.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]And from what I’ve seen, he takes terrible routes to balls and he has a noodle-arm, so I have a hard time using the word “amazing” when characterizing his defense.[/quote]
Literally every defensive metric in existence disagrees with you though. Sabermetric people are all about “Don’t trust your eyes” until they don’t like someone. With Soriano it’s “Don’t trust your eyes, he’s a good fielder despite looking awkward.” But Campana isn’t a great fielder. It’s a kind of ridiculous double-standard.
And I’m all about sabermetrics. So I’m not making fun of them.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]It’s unfair to assume an uptick in production from the league and just disclude random players like Campana or even (dying laughing).[/quote]
It’s more a factor of the type of player they are. Slap-hitting speedsters are more valuable in low run scoring environments.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]And from what I’ve seen, he takes terrible routes to balls and he has a noodle-arm, so I have a hard time using the word “amazing” when characterizing his defense.[/quote]
For what it’s worth, the scouts all loved his defense in the minors
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Literally every defensive metric in existence disagrees with you though.[/quote]His FRAA is -1.3. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=CAMPANA19860530A
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]It’s more a factor of the type of player they are. Slap-hitting speedsters are more valuable in low run scoring environments.[/quote]Maybe Q should only play him when the wind is blowing in.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]It’s more a factor of the type of player they are. Slap-hitting speedsters are more valuable in low run scoring environments.[/quote]
I agree with that, but if league-wide hitting gets a bit better, it’s only fair to assume they will do a bit better as well. It’s not like I’m saying the league will go from .240/.300/.350 to .270/.360/.430 so that means Campana will start hitting .310/.360/.400, I’m just saying it’s fair to give him a few points extra in everything as well, rather than just leaving him the same and moving everybody else up.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Literally every defensive metric in existence disagrees with you though[/quote]
Every defensive metric is essentially meaningless in the small sample of 169 innings he’s played in CF.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]I agree with that, but if league-wide hitting gets a bit better, it’s only fair to assume they will do a bit better as well. It’s not like I’m saying the league will go from .240/.300/.350 to .270/.360/.430 so that means Campana will start hitting .310/.360/.400, I’m just saying it’s fair to give him a few points extra in everything as well, rather than just leaving him the same and moving everybody else up.[/quote]
They could improve, sure, but an improvement in the hitting environment would also damage his SB weights since they would be worth less.
FWIW I feel perfectly fine in assuming that the league average could go up much more than Campana/Pierre types’ average. Those guys are what they are
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I don’t see any player walking away from 38 million dollars (roughly 70% of 54), mb. He might retire after he’s cut, since he’d still be owed that money, but thinking he’d cut a deal like that is Yellon-level fantasy.[/quote]You know what these guys care more about than money? Their egos. The Cubs aren’t going to just cut him. Won’t happen. The Cubs would have to kick in all but about $5 million to trade him. That’s not going to happen.
Here’s what we know if we trust the sources and since there has been more than one, I’m willing to to do so: the Cubs likely won’t begin next year with Soriano on their roster and Soriano is talking 50/50 whether or not he’ll be a Cub next year. The Cubs tried to give Soriano away at the deadline and were willing to eat a ton of money to do so. Soriano and his agent know this. They know he’s probably not getting another job after the Cubs. Whether that’s after this season or 3 years from now, the Cubs are his last job.
Since the Cubs are apparently done with Soriano after this season, my money is on retirement. Nobody wants to be the guy who some team just threw $54 million down the toilet to get rid of.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]His FRAA is -1.3. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=CAMPANA19860530A%5B/quote%5DFair enough. I don’t go go to baseballprospectus.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You know what these guys care more about than money? Their egos. The Cubs aren’t going to just cut him. Won’t happen. The Cubs would have to kick in all but about $5 million to trade him. That’s not going to happen.
Here’s what we know if we trust the sources and since there has been more than one, I’m willing to to do so: the Cubs likely won’t begin next year with Soriano on their roster and Soriano is talking 50/50 whether or not he’ll be a Cub next year. The Cubs tried to give Soriano away at the deadline and were willing to eat a ton of money to do so. Soriano and his agent know this. They know he’s probably not getting another job after the Cubs. Whether that’s after this season or 3 years from now, the Cubs are his last job.
Since the Cubs are apparently done with Soriano after this season, my money is on retirement. Nobody wants to be the guy who some team just threw $54 million down the toilet to get rid of.[/quote]The O’s?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You know what these guys care more about than money? Their egos. The Cubs aren’t going to just cut him. Won’t happen. The Cubs would have to kick in all but about $5 million to trade him. That’s not going to happen.
Here’s what we know if we trust the sources and since there has been more than one, I’m willing to to do so: the Cubs likely won’t begin next year with Soriano on their roster and Soriano is talking 50/50 whether or not he’ll be a Cub next year. The Cubs tried to give Soriano away at the deadline and were willing to eat a ton of money to do so. Soriano and his agent know this. They know he’s probably not getting another job after the Cubs. Whether that’s after this season or 3 years from now, the Cubs are his last job.
Since the Cubs are apparently done with Soriano after this season, my money is on retirement. Nobody wants to be the guy who some team just threw $54 million down the toilet to get rid of.[/quote]
54 million dollars does a pretty good job of absorbing your embarrassment.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Every season the Orioles throw their hands up and say “Yeah whatever.”
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Literally every defensive metric in existence disagrees with you though. Sabermetric people are all about “Don’t trust your eyes” until they don’t like someone. With Soriano it’s “Don’t trust your eyes, he’s a good fielder despite looking awkward.” But Campana isn’t a great fielder. It’s a kind of ridiculous double-standard.
And I’m all about sabermetrics. So I’m not making fun of them.[/quote]
I’m not saying the metrics are wrong. I said “from what I’ve seen.” I don’t consider myself to be the end-all be-all of baseball knowledge, so I am perfectly willing to accept that my opinion is wrong. I’m just stating what I have seen, and what I’ve seen isn’t “amazing.”
I’m certainly not trying to turn this into a Sabermetrics vs. scouting debate.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Cubs Chris Carpenter ———>DL (oblique)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Every defensive metric is essentially meaningless in the small sample of 169 innings he’s played in CF.[/quote]Yes, that’s extremely true. Which is why I said if it holds up, though not at the +30 he’s on pace for, but something more reasonable like +15. Sure, it’s possible it won’t, but it’s not exactly an unlikely scenario for someone like Campana to be worth +15 in the field defensively.
I’m not a fan of guys like that either. But they can be very useful when they’re making league minimum. And if so, it both saves money we’d otherwise possibly have to use on an outfielder while filling the position adequately. It’s not like he’d be there very long. Szczur, Ha, Crawford and even Abreu could potentially move him off the roster by 2013. It’d be a year of what i think could be league average play from a slightly worse version of a young Juan Pierre.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Tony Campana is what he is: a good defender and baserunner who can’t hit for shit. If his defense and base running are awesome then it probably outweighs his terrible hitting. If the defense and base running aren’t that good then there’s no chance.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Tony Campana is what he is: a good defender and baserunner who can’t hit for shit. If his defense and base running are awesome then it probably outweighs his terrible hitting. If the defense and base running aren’t that good then there’s no chance.[/quote]Yes. I just happen to think his defense and baserunning are more likely extremely good than not.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’m not saying the metrics are wrong. I said “from what I’ve seen.” I don’t consider myself to be the end-all be-all of baseball knowledge, so I am perfectly willing to accept that my opinion is wrong. I’m just stating what I have seen, and what I’ve seen isn’t “amazing.”
I’m certainly not trying to turn this into a Sabermetrics vs. scouting debate.[/quote]
You may not be wrong and referencing defensive metrics as if they are accurate at this point is entirely wrong. He’s fielded so few balls in play that he could be a terrible fielder. Our eyes are better off at this point than the metrics. If we have access to scouting reports, we’d be advised to use those until he has a season or two under his belt.
He does strike me as the kind of guy who can make up for certain flaws defensively, though. His arm is horrible, but Soriano’s arm is tremendous. Soriano is a terrible fielder despite the arm.
But right now, we don’t know.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Not really fair. Campana very well could be a pretty good player. Not a great player, but something like a 2-3WAR type guy. I mean, super small sample size, but the eye test tends to agree that his fielding is outrageously good. He has completely ridiculous range. If he’s a true talent +15 guy in CF and can actually sustain something close to the 91wRC+ (say 85 or higher) he’s putting up right now along with his good baserunning. Then it’s quite likely he’s a young Juan (dying laughing) type, which is extremely unappreciated now.
But if he played every day and hit 8th while playing amazing defense I’d be all for it, at least to see what he actually has. Cause him in CF and B-Jax in RF next year would, at least based on scouting reports, give us one of the best outfield defenses in the majors regardless of which of our guys we threw into LF everyday. And presumably would give us 2 to 3 WAR at every position.[/quote]
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Colvin is back on the bench for some reason.[/quote]Because he was brought up to play everyday. Duh.
/Hendry
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]54 million dollars does a pretty good job of absorbing your embarrassment.[/quote]Don’t you remember all the reports about how embarrassed Sosa was when he was traded to the O’s along with the entire contract? These guys are babies. Their egos are more sensitive than anything else. It’s why we see pitches thrown at heads and why players charge the mound. There’s nothing worse than bruising one of these guys egos.
Yellon’s fantasy of Fukudome going back to Japan was absurd not because of the money, but because Fukudome was actually a valuable player. Soriano is useless. He knows it. The Cubs know it. His agent knows it. Every single player in baseball knows it. Every single player in the minor leagues who has heard of Soriano knows he’s a terrible baseball player at this point in his career.
Soriano either retires or the Cubs hold onto him. Some sources seem confident he won’t be back next year. There’s not a team in MLB or the PCL that’s going to take Soriano.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You may not be wrong and referencing defensive metrics as if they are accurate at this point is entirely wrong. He’s fielded so few balls in play that he could be a terrible fielder. Our eyes are better off at this point than the metrics. If we have access to scouting reports, we’d be advised to use those until he has a season or two under his belt.
He does strike me as the kind of guy who can make up for certain flaws defensively, though. His arm is horrible, but Soriano’s arm is tremendous. Soriano is a terrible fielder despite the arm.
But right now, we don’t know.[/quote]I was more or less trying to make the argument that just because his skillset is annoying doesn’t make him useless. That’s just a close-minded way to look at baseball. If he can potentially be pretty close to a league average player then there is no reason to go spend money on an outfielder in the offseason. Because the only real places we’d need to improve would be at 1B and then maybe a near league-average Starting Pitcher. Which I think are both things that can be had.
Figure something like:
B-Jax 2.5WAR
Castro 3.5WAR
Prince 5WAR
Ramirez 3WAR
Byrd 3.5WAR
Soto 3WAR
Barney 1.5WAR
Campana 1.5WAR (There I tempered it some)
That’s 23.5WAR from the position players
Garza 4WAR
Dempster 3.5WAR
Zambrano 2.5WAR
Wells 2WAR
FA Pitcher/Cashner 2WAR
14WAR from the starters.
That’s 37.5WAR and if you get let’s say even 2.5WAR from the entire pen and bench, which might be generous. that’s a 40WAR team. I forget exactly what you add to that to throw out a guess for a team’s record. But I think that team could win 85 games. *shrug*
Cardinals are on pace for a team WAR of I think 49 this year. And looking at it. I probably didn’t give nearly enough to the bench and pen. The pen may end up around like, nothing, but the bench should pretty easily contribute more than 2.5WAR.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Yes. I just happen to think his defense and baserunning are more likely extremely good than not.[/quote]Thinking something and stating something are two entirely different things. Based on what evidence we do have, it’s going to be very difficult for Campana to be a valuable player at the big league level. Despite that, I also think he can be. There’s little doubt in my mind he’s twice the player Soriano is at this point so I don’t care if the Cubs pay Soriano $18 million next year and play Campana. They more than likely come out ahead and that’s all that matters.
mb21Quote Reply
Probably something more like that.
mb21Quote Reply
So the question is, are there any free agents in the OF the Cubs can invest in to improve their chances for the next couple of seasons? Let’s assume that good/bad, Tony probably isn’t the savior of the team. He might be able to help out early in the season when the sluggers aren’t producing, and he can pinch run and spot start effectively, at least. So if the Cubs are realistically trying to compete next season or 2013, who can they target in the off-season?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21] Soriano is useless. He knows it. The Cubs know it. His agent knows it. Every single player in baseball knows it. Every single player in the minor leagues who has heard of Soriano knows he’s a terrible baseball player at this point in his career.
[/quote]
Then what’s the point of cutting a deal? If everyone knows he sucked, he’s either the guy who got cut by his team or the guy who gave away tens of millions of dollars when he was going to be cut anyway.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Can Z still be a 2WAR pitcher? I’m guessing his bat helps, but as much as I love Z, he’s a pretty middling SP at this point. Although he’s already been worth 1.6 WAR (Fangraphs), I just don’t know whether he can be counted on to supply that next season.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Can Z still be a 2WAR pitcher? I’m guessing his bat helps, but as much as I love Z, he’s a pretty middling SP at this point. Although he’s already been worth 1.6 WAR (Fangraphs), I just don’t know whether he can be counted on to supply that next season.[/quote]
I think 2 WAR is a more than fair expectation from Z.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Probably something more like that.[/quote]Castro will end up close to 3WAR this year, if not over it. If he plays 155 games the way he has so far this year, he’ll end the year at 3.1WAR. I don’t see any reason he can’t continue to improve a little.
Byrd, in a full season this year, would be on pace for 4WAR and you think he’s gonna drop to 2WAR?
Soto is also on pace to, if he plays the rest of the year healthy, be worth 2.6WAR in only 120 games and you think he’ll only put up 2.5WAR?
Aramis Ramirez is the only one to reasonably expect a dropoff that might put him in the range of 2WAR. But even he is producing like a 3WAR player this year despite starting the season playing like Ryan Theriot.
As for Wells, he could be anything from replacement level to the 3WAR guy he was coming into this year. So I put it at about league average.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]So the question is, are there any free agents in the OF the Cubs can invest in to improve their chances for the next couple of seasons? Let’s assume that good/bad, Tony probably isn’t the savior of the team. He might be able to help out early in the season when the sluggers aren’t producing, and he can pinch run and spot start effectively, at least. So if the Cubs are realistically trying to compete next season or 2013, who can they target in the off-season?[/quote]
Via MLBTR, 2012 OF FA:
Pretty slim pickings there.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I think 2 WAR is a more than fair expectation from Z.[/quote]I hope so. I just don’t know what to expect from him anymore.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Can Z still be a 2WAR pitcher? I’m guessing his bat helps, but as much as I love Z, he’s a pretty middling SP at this point. Although he’s already been worth 1.6 WAR (Fangraphs), I just don’t know whether he can be counted on to supply that next season.[/quote]His bat actually helps him a ton. If we count that he’s closer to 2.5. He adds a solid half win to a win and a half with his bat every year over normal pitchers.
DoogolasQuote Reply
As you’ve seen I’m not that high on Campana (dying laughing). But I have no problem with a Byrd/Campana/BJax OF next year because he won’t be blocking anyone. But if there’s some random OF FA or trade target that the Cubs can get in on he’s not going to be stopping them.
It’s surprising how quickly a team can retool to be a good defensive team. If the Cubs cut Adolfo, let Ramirez go, and sign Pujols, they could be one of the top defensive teams in the NL
BerseliusQuote Reply
Swisher might not be a bad guy to look at. Decent pop, good enough D, and positional flexibility.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I think any production you get out of Byrd over 2 WAR is gravy. He is what he is.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Who’s filling in for Pat today?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Then what’s the point of cutting a deal? If everyone knows he sucked, he’s either the guy who got cut by his team or the guy who gave away tens of millions of dollars when he was going to be cut anyway.[/quote]I don’t know, but the Cubs obviously think a deal can be worked out. If they were willing to eat the money, they’d just release him right now. They couldn’t trade him. Soriano isn’t even sure he’ll be back and he surely knows he isn’t playing anywhere else.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Can Z still be a 2WAR pitcher? I’m guessing his bat helps, but as much as I love Z, he’s a pretty middling SP at this point. Although he’s already been worth 1.6 WAR (Fangraphs), I just don’t know whether he can be counted on to supply that next season.[/quote]Depends on what you use to calculate WAR. If you use FIP then he probably can. If you use RA there’s no way. If you use BaseRuns, no. Really, the only way you can get him to 2 WAR is if you look at only 3 statistics: strikeouts, walks and home runs.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I think any production you get out of Byrd over 2 WAR is gravy. He is what he is.[/quote]
He’s been WAY better than a 2WAR player for four out of five years now. What possibly makes you think he’s just going to suddenly become mediocre?
Seriously in 07 109 games 2.4WAR (in 150 games that’s 3.3WAR)
08 122 games 3.2WAR (in 150 games that’s 3.9WAR)
146 games in 09 and only 1.6WAR
152 games last year and he put up 4.3WAR
73 games so far this year 1.8WAR (in 150 games that’s 3.7WAR)
There is absolutely no reason not to think Byrd won’t be at least a 3 win player next year.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Depends on what you use to calculate WAR. If you use FIP then he probably can. If you use RA there’s no way. If you use BaseRuns, no. Really, the only way you can get him to 2 WAR is if you look at only 3 statistics: strikeouts, walks and home runs.[/quote]Doesn’t the same also apply to Dempster though? I mean, if FIP is wrong, we’re completely screwed next year no matter what we do. There is literally zero chance in hell for us to be even a mediocre team.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Depends on what you use to calculate WAR. If you use FIP then he probably can. If you use RA there’s no way. If you use BaseRuns, no. Really, the only way you can get him to 2 WAR is if you look at only 3 statistics: strikeouts, walks and home runs.[/quote]It sucks watching players get old.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]He’s been WAY better than a 2WAR player for four out of five years now. What possibly makes you think he’s just going to suddenly become mediocre?
Seriously in 07 109 games 2.4WAR (in 150 games that’s 3.3WAR)
08 122 games 3.2WAR (in 150 games that’s 3.9WAR)
146 games in 09 and only 1.6WAR
152 games last year and he put up 4.3WAR
73 games so far this year 1.8WAR (in 150 games that’s 3.7WAR)
There is absolutely no reason not to think Byrd won’t be at least a 3 win player next year.[/quote]
Knock of 0.5-1 WAR for injuries and age regression. I’m undervaluing him a bit but I don’t think he’s much more than above average
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Swisher might not be a bad guy to look at. Decent pop, good enough D, and positional flexibility.[/quote]It depends on whether you’re looking to contend next year or building and intending to contend the year after. Swisher would be good if the Cubs just want to start building a better team and contend in the near future. Probably not such a good choice if they want to contend next year.
That’s one thing we don’t know yet. We know the Cubs want to contend, but they could be looking to just get better next year and contend the year after. They’ll have to go nuts this offseason with money to contend next year. I think it’s more likely they’re looking to pick up a top free agent this offseason and then one or two more the following.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Knock of 0.5-1 WAR for injuries and age regression. I’m undervaluing him a bit but I don’t think he’s much more than above average[/quote]3WAR is above average. And I said 3WAR from him, I believe. Which knocks off about .7WAR of the production he is capable of putting up. I feel like 3WAR is a perfectly reasonable estimate.
DoogolasQuote Reply
This umpire kinda blows. At least according to gameday.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Doesn’t the same also apply to Dempster though? I mean, if FIP is wrong, we’re completely screwed next year no matter what we do. There is literally zero chance in hell for us to be even a mediocre team.[/quote]I’m only slightly less worried about Dempster, although his peripherals look better than Z’s.
But I think the Cubs have a long way to go to contend next year, and they seem, unfortunately, even more optimistic about their current roster than you. I honestly think Hendry believes he can add one big FA to this team and get back to ~85 wins.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Knock of 0.5-1 WAR for injuries and age regression. I’m undervaluing him a bit but I don’t think he’s much more than above average[/quote]rWAR doesn’t like him as much as fWAR, but it still likes him. His offensive runs above replacement since 2007 have been 28, 30, 29, 25 and 18 this year in half as many plate appearances. I’d still go with a 2 to 2.5 WAR projection though.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Who’s filling in for Pat today?[/quote]
Dave Eanet
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Doesn’t the same also apply to Dempster though? I mean, if FIP is wrong, we’re completely screwed next year no matter what we do. There is literally zero chance in hell for us to be even a mediocre team.[/quote]Perhaps to some extent, but not as much.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’m only slightly less worried about Dempster, although his peripherals look better than Z’s.
But I think the Cubs have a long way to go to contend next year, and they seem, unfortunately, even more optimistic about their current roster than you. I honestly think Hendry believes he can add one big FA to this team and get back to ~85 wins.[/quote]
That would require a good deal of luck from our young guys, like Castro going superstar or something. Which, I mean, it could happen, but it’s not likely.
I think a Prince Fielder and a decent starting pitcher could get this team to 85 wins if people manage to stay healthy.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It depends on whether you’re looking to contend next year or building and intending to contend the year after. Swisher would be good if the Cubs just want to start building a better team and contend in the near future. Probably not such a good choice if they want to contend next year.
That’s one thing we don’t know yet. We know the Cubs want to contend, but they could be looking to just get better next year and contend the year after. They’ll have to go nuts this offseason with money to contend next year. I think it’s more likely they’re looking to pick up a top free agent this offseason and then one or two more the following.[/quote]Yeah, I was thinking that seeing as they have no solution in RF right now and don’t appear to envision either Colvin or Jackson there, Swisher isn’t a bad guy. He plays 3 of the 4 corners well enough, hits switch, and has decent pop. Probably a low-cost option for a team that wants to contend without splashing major cash.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Z did a nice Marmol impersonation there.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’m only slightly less worried about Dempster, although his peripherals look better than Z’s.
But I think the Cubs have a long way to go to contend next year, and they seem, unfortunately, even more optimistic about their current roster than you. I honestly think Hendry believes he can add one big FA to this team and get back to ~85 wins.[/quote]Is that what he believes or is that what he’s telling the fans? We have to remember the Cubs job, first and foremost, is to sell tickets and get people interested in the team. I don’t know what Hendry thinks, but I wouldn’t take what he’s said as his true opinions on what the team needs.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]That would require a good deal of luck from our young guys, like Castro going superstar or something. Which, I mean, it could happen, but it’s not likely.
I think a Prince Fielder and a decent starting pitcher could get this team to 85 wins if people manage to stay healthy.[/quote]I don’t know that the Cubs can afford to/are willing to invest much more rotation. Z and Demp make big money and Garza is going to get fucking PAID in arb this year after the season he’s had. So given the payroll constraints the Cubs will have, I’m just not sure they’ll pursue another SP. They have to hope one of Cashner, Coleman, or Jackson comes good and gives them some cheap production.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, I was thinking that seeing as they have no solution in RF right now and don’t appear to envision either Colvin or Jackson there, Swisher isn’t a bad guy. He plays 3 of the 4 corners well enough, hits switch, and has decent pop. Probably a low-cost option for a team that wants to contend without splashing major cash.[/quote]yeah, he’s the kind of guy who is going to prove more value than he’s paid, which this team needs. It just really does depend on whether their talk of contention means 2012 or 2013. I have little doubt they can contend again in 2013. Contending in 2012 is going to take a lot more effort (MONEY!) and I don’t think we can expect any team to spend the kind of money the Cubs are going to need to spend to contend next year. More than likely what they’re looking at is acquiring a guy like Fielder this offseason, maybe trading for a really good player at the deadline and then acquiring another one next offseason. It’s not as flashy and won’t get the fans as excited, but it’s probably the better way to go.
mb21Quote Reply
If Hendry knows what’s good for him, he tries to extend Garza now. I suspect that once the season ends, he won’t be able to avoid arb hearings with Garza, and Garza could stand to win a hefty sum.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Perhaps to some extent, but not as much.[/quote]Dempster has been worth .9bWAR
Zambrano has been worth 1.5bWAR
Am I missing something?
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I don’t know that the Cubs can afford to/are willing to invest much more rotation. Z and Demp make big money and Garza is going to get fucking PAID in arb this year after the season he’s had. So given the payroll constraints the Cubs will have, I’m just not sure they’ll pursue another SP. They have to hope one of Cashner, Coleman, or Jackson comes good and gives them some cheap production.[/quote]I agree with this. I expect we’ll see Garza extended this offseason. No reason not to at this point if the team wants to contend in the future, which they do.
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t think Garza is gonna get as much as people seem to think. His ERA is no different than it’s ever been. And while his peripherals are much, much better, he also hit the DL at one point.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]yeah, he’s the kind of guy who is going to prove more value than he’s paid, which this team needs. It just really does depend on whether their talk of contention means 2012 or 2013. I have little doubt they can contend again in 2013. Contending in 2012 is going to take a lot more effort (MONEY!) and I don’t think we can expect any team to spend the kind of money the Cubs are going to need to spend to contend next year. More than likely what they’re looking at is acquiring a guy like Fielder this offseason, maybe trading for a really good player at the deadline and then acquiring another one next offseason. It’s not as flashy and won’t get the fans as excited, but it’s probably the better way to go.[/quote]If that’s the plan, it sounds good to me. Sign Fielder and Swish, give Swish a 1-year deal. If he plays well, nice tradepiece at the deadline if the team is bad, and now you’ve cleared a space in the OF for Jackson in 2013. I wouldn’t sign Swish to anything beyond a 1-year deal with a team option for 2013. But he’d be a perfect low-cost transitional player.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Cueto doing an even better Marmol impression!
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Dempster has been worth .9bWAR
Zambrano has been worth 1.5bWAR
Am I missing something?[/quote]Zamrano has lost velocity, is striking out fewer batters, his xFIP has always been way higher than his ERA, his BaseRuns have been higher and so on. Dempster’s strikeout rate is about the same. His velocity is near the same, too. Dempster’s xFIP has been much better than Z’s and the same is true with BaseRuns.
Dempster is a much better pitcher than Z at this point.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]If that’s the plan, it sounds good to me. Sign Fielder and Swish, give Swish a 1-year deal. If he plays well, nice tradepiece at the deadline if the team is bad, and now you’ve cleared a space in the OF for Jackson in 2013. I wouldn’t sign Swish to anything beyond a 1-year deal with a team option for 2013. But he’d be a perfect low-cost transitional player.[/quote]Wouldn’t Jackson be the CF and Swish be in RF or LF in that situation with Campana moving to the bench?
DoogolasQuote Reply
Who is Garza’s agent? Is he a Boras client?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]If that’s the plan, it sounds good to me. Sign Fielder and Swish, give Swish a 1-year deal. If he plays well, nice tradepiece at the deadline if the team is bad, and now you’ve cleared a space in the OF for Jackson in 2013. I wouldn’t sign Swish to anything beyond a 1-year deal with a team option for 2013. But he’d be a perfect low-cost transitional player.[/quote]
I think it was Berselius who mentioned it above, but the Cubs should also really try to improve their defense. Getting rid of Soriano and Ramirez will help significantly. The same is true with base running. The Cubs have sucked at that for far too long. It would be nice to actually add some wins from those two aspects of the game rather than subtracting wins.
mb21Quote Reply
ZOMG FIELDER’S WEIGHT IS WORTH -4 WARZ2.1.
Moron Cubs FanQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Wouldn’t Jackson be the CF and Swish be in RF or LF in that situation with Campana moving to the bench?[/quote]Yes. I think Campana is fast Dascenzo. I know you think otherwise, and have good reasons for doing so. But I think he’ll never be able to hit well enough to start in a MLB OF, so he’ll never be in my plans for next year’s OF past a bench role.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Zamrano has lost velocity, is striking out fewer batters, his xFIP has always been way higher than his ERA, his BaseRuns have been higher and so on. Dempster’s strikeout rate is about the same. His velocity is near the same, too. Dempster’s xFIP has been much better than Z’s and the same is true with BaseRuns.
Dempster is a much better pitcher than Z at this point.[/quote]
I wasn’t disagreeing with that. I was just saying that Z could still be league average pitcher. As for the velocity, eh, I feel that argument is silly, he struck out over 8 per 9 last year with literally the exact same velocity he is at right now.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Wouldn’t Jackson be the CF and Swish be in RF or LF in that situation with Campana moving to the bench?[/quote]Campana isn’t going to start for the Cubs unless there’s an injury. As much as we’ve talked about what his value could be, he’s not going to get the chance to play every day. He might make the roster as the 5th outfielder and that’s a big question mark. If they have Colvin in RF next year along with jackson in CF, I think they bring Reed Johnson back because he’s a righty.
mb21Quote Reply
Eh, lefty mashing platoon OFs are a dime a dozen.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yes. I think Campana is fast Dascenzo. I know you think otherwise, and have good reasons for doing so. But I think he’ll never be able to hit well enough to start in a MLB OF, so he’ll never be in my plans for next year’s OF past a bench role.[/quote]Oh if we can get Swisher I’m absolutely all for it. I was mostly defending him for the sake of discussion and because I think his tools are under-appreciated at league minimum and finally just because if he were to start next year I don’t think it would spell doom for the team.
If we get Swisher, a league average pitcher and Fielder, I think we’d have a pretty damn interesting team next year.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Oh, I see what you’re saying. I’d probably have Byrd in CF and give Colvin a shot at LF in ST. Then when Swish is gone, Byrd in RF, Jackson in CF, hopefully Colvin in LF, and pursue a FA RF in 2014.
With that said, I do not have high hopes for Colvin or Campana, and I think no matter what the Cubs do, they will have two gaping holes in the OF by 2013. It’s a real problem.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]I wasn’t disagreeing with that. I was just saying that Z could still be league average pitcher. As for the velocity, eh, I feel that argument is silly, he struck out over 8 per 9 last year with literally the exact same velocity he is at right now.[/quote]Sure, he could still be a league average pitcher. Campana could be a league average player. Byrd could be a 4 WAR player and so on.
All of that is true, but if we’re talking about what someone could be that gives you an idea of what you should expect (less than what could be).
mb21Quote Reply
Though I guess Reed is a good clubhouse guy from what I remember.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Eh, lefty mashing platoon OFs are a dime a dozen.[/quote]The Cubs like Johnson, he’d probably return for cheaper than they could sign anyone else. If there’s not a big difference in talent or cost, I want the guy they know who isn’t a problem.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Though I guess Reed is a good clubhouse guy from what I remember.[/quote]yeah, if the Cubs think that and he gets along with everyone and there’s not clearly a better option, I’d be happy with Reed for another year. Not as a starter.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Sure, he could still be a league average pitcher. Campana could be a league average player. Byrd could be a 4 WAR player and so on.
All of that is true, but if we’re talking about what someone could be that gives you an idea of what you should expect (less than what could be).[/quote]
I would say that Zambrano being a league average pitcher is 10000X as likely as Campana being a league average player or Byrd being a 4WAR player.
I said Byrd should give you around 3WAR.
I’d be absolutely stunned if Zambrano wasn’t worth 2WAR next year. Especially if you include his hitting.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]I would say that Zambrano being a league average pitcher is 10000X as likely as Campana being a league average player or Byrd being a 4WAR player.
I said Byrd should give you around 3WAR.
I’d be absolutely stunned if Zambrano wasn’t worth 2WAR next year. Especially if you include his hitting.[/quote]
Good point about the hitting
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]yeah, if the Cubs think that and he gets along with everyone and there’s not clearly a better option, I’d be happy with Reed for another year. Not as a starter.[/quote]I just worry that Quade is far too reliant on Reed and to expect another flash-in-the-pan season from him is sheer folly.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I just worry that Quade is far too reliant on Reed and to expect another flash-in-the-pan season from him is sheer folly.[/quote]
I don’t think we’re going to have to worry about Quade in the dugout next year (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I don’t think we’re going to have to worry about Quade in the dugout next year (dying laughing)[/quote]I’m not so sure. I get the impression that Ricketts is not really displeased with Hendry and Quade. He loves his yes men.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I don’t think we’re going to have to worry about Quade in the dugout next year (dying laughing)[/quote]
I’m not so sure of that. I still think Ricketts is sticking to the plan of letting Hendry mix and match until the money comes off the books and then letting him try to build something from there. That’s pretty much been the plan from the start as far as I can tell, and Quade is Hendry’s guy.
If Ricketts fires Hendry, he might as well fire Quade at the same time, because a new GM will absolutely want his own guy over Quade. I still put the odds of that happening at less than 50%.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I think Quade’s future with the Cubs depends on the truth to the rumors that he lost the clubhouse. If those are true, he’s gone. He has to be. You can’t replace the players, but you can replace the manager.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’m not so sure of that. I still think Ricketts is sticking to the plan of letting Hendry mix and match until the money comes off the books and then letting him try to build something from there. That’s pretty much been the plan from the start as far as I can tell, and Quade is Hendry’s guy.
If Ricketts fires Hendry, he might as well fire Quade at the same time, because a new GM will absolutely want his own guy over Quade. I still put the odds of that happening at less than 50%.[/quote]Yeah, a few weeks back, I felt Quade might get scapegoated for a bad season by a mediocre team, but I just don’t see it happening right now. It just feels like Ricketts isn’t disturbed by the state of this team, and sees the results as just a series of unfortunate events.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, a few weeks back, I felt Quade might get scapegoated for a bad season by a mediocre team, but I just don’t see it happening right now. It just feels like Ricketts isn’t disturbed by the state of this team, and sees the results as just a series of unfortunate events.[/quote]
Yes, Count Olaf did it (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think Quade’s future with the Cubs depends on the truth to the rumors that he lost the clubhouse. If those are true, he’s gone. He has to be. You can’t replace the players, but you can replace the manager.[/quote]Yeah, I think those reports are sheer fabulism. I have no doubt that certain players don’t care much for the Jabberjaws routine, but I think that “he’s lost the locker room” is just another lazy beat guy narrative.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Yes, Count Olaf did it (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
If this is true, Quade is gone: http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-insider/2011/07/agent-quade-overmatched/
More importantly
Not sure how accurate it is, but if the agents are talking like that it means they steer players away from the organization and the Cubs have to fire Quade.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If this is true, Quade is gone: http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-insider/2011/07/agent-quade-overmatched/
Not sure how accurate it is, but if the agents are talking like that it means they steer players away from the organization and the Cubs have to fire Quade.[/quote]
Julie had similar things to say from her source in the Cubs org. It could be the same person.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, I think those reports are sheer fabulism. I have no doubt that certain players don’t care much for the Jabberjaws routine, but I think that “he’s lost the locker room” is just another lazy beat guy narrative.[/quote]I don’t think it’s any more lazy than when Piniella lost the clubhouse. When the team sucks, the manager loses respect. I don’t know about the overmatched comments, but I don’t think there’s any doubt the players dislike Quade at this point.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Julie had similar things to say from her source in the Cubs org. It could be the same person.[/quote]And it really is stating the obvious because if the team loses, the manager is disliked. This isn’t new and it wasn’t surprising, but I do think it’s why Quade will be fired.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If this is true, Quade is gone: http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-insider/2011/07/agent-quade-overmatched/
Not sure how accurate it is, but if the agents are talking like that it means they steer players away from the organization and the Cubs have to fire Quade.[/quote]Again, this kind of third-hand “info” has to be taken with a huge grain of salt. Agents have a completely different set of motivations for the things they do and the rumors they circulate.
If it’s true, it’s bad. But I think it’s far too suspect to be taken as true. And to be honest, the Cubs devil-may-care attitude towards their mediocrity and their tightness with the purse strings will drive away more FA than Quade’s admittedly tired act.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://aeryssports.com/a-league-of-her-own/of-insider-frustrations-and-first-pitches/
BerseliusQuote Reply
And now that Zambrano isn’t walking people he gives up runs. Karma!
DoogolasQuote Reply
Like I said, MO, I don’t necessarily believe the source, but I do believe the sentiment. That’s stating the obvious in my opinion. It’s no surprise that Lou was liked or respected the first 3 seasons, but not the 4th. It’s not surprising that Dusty Baker was the greatest manager ever in 2003 and 2004 and the dumbest manager ever in 2005 and 2006.
However, that sentiment along with the Cubs sucking is, in my opinion, enough to get him fired. I’ve said he was going to be fired since the middle of May. I don’t see any reason to think otherwise at this point as the season has only gotten worse since then.
mb21Quote Reply
In my head I swear to God I called that home run.
Should we just play Z in LF next season?
DoogolasQuote Reply
Z!
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]And it really is stating the obvious because if the team loses, the manager is disliked. This isn’t new and it wasn’t surprising, but I do think it’s why Quade will be fired.[/quote]Who are the possible replacements? There’s not an obvious choice out there right now. Ricketts and Hendry will never hire another Piniella, because they can’t brook being contradicted in the media by their manager. So it’s going to be someone relatively inexperienced, or with a rep for going along with management. A paucity of viable replacements could save Quade’s job just as easily as anything else.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]http://aeryssports.com/a-league-of-her-own/of-insider-frustrations-and-first-pitches/[/quote]If there’s a shred of truth to any of that, Quade is gone.
mb21Quote Reply
I gif’d Campana’s homer to more accurately reflect his speed.
GBTSQuote Reply
Z giveth, and Z taketh away.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Who are the possible replacements? There’s not an obvious choice out there right now. Ricketts and Hendry will never hire another Piniella, because they can’t brook being contradicted in the media by their manager. So it’s going to be someone relatively inexperienced, or with a rep for going along with management. A paucity of viable replacements could save Quade’s job just as easily as anything else.[/quote]
There are a dozen of available managers each year. I think the manager next year is going to be Bobby Valentine and have thought that since May. I’d say it’s Valentine, Wedge or Sandberg. My choices of those 3 would be Valentine, Sandberg and Wedge.
mb21Quote Reply
Yonder Alonso makes Ibanez and Dunn look like Mays and Mantle.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
(dying laughing) GBTS
BerseliusQuote Reply
Sandberg would be a huge mistake the same way he would have been this year. He’s almost surely going to be set up to fail. And then he’s very hard to fire because he’s a Cubs legend.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]There are a dozen of available managers each year. I think the manager next year is going to be Bobby Valentine and have thought that since May. I’d say it’s Valentine, Wedge or Sandberg. My choices of those 3 would be Valentine, Sandberg and Wedge.[/quote]Valentine is out. He’s a Piniella-type, and I think Ricketts and Hendry are done with that type of guy. Why would Sandberg come back to an org that basically led him on? Wedge I could see, but he butted heads with GM in CLE pretty good a couple times.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, a few weeks back, I felt Quade might get scapegoated for a bad season by a mediocre team, but I just don’t see it happening right now. It just feels like Ricketts isn’t disturbed by the state of this team, and sees the results as just a series of unfortunate variance.[/quote].
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]There are a dozen of available managers each year. I think the manager next year is going to be Bobby Valentine and have thought that since May. I’d say it’s Valentine, Wedge or Sandberg. My choices of those 3 would be Valentine, Sandberg and Wedge.[/quote]
Bobby V’s a shitty tv guy, but would be fun to have as a manager
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If there’s a shred of truth to any of that, Quade is gone.[/quote]I mean this in no way to reflect on Julie’s credibility, because I have no doubt someone told her this. But honestly this stuff smacks of the same “in the know” attitude and boiler room gossip that accompanied the “hispanic faction divides locker room” rumors.
But I agree that if the source is solid, and this is indeed true, Quade is a goner.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Bobby V’s a shitty tv guy, but would be fun to have as a manager[/quote]Yeah, but I think his attitude is exactly what the Cubs don’t want.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Pena doing his best to get us that Type-B free agent!
DoogolasQuote Reply
I love second-half Peenya. If the Cubs strike out on Fielder/Pujols I’d be happy with another season from him.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, but I think his attitude is exactly what the Cubs don’t want.[/quote]
(dying laughing), yeah. Julie loves speculating how much of a circus it would be if Ozzie Guillen ever became the Cubs manager (dying laughing). I think Bobby V is only a step away from that.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Valentine is out. He’s a Piniella-type, and I think Ricketts and Hendry are done with that type of guy. Why would Sandberg come back to an org that basically led him on? Wedge I could see, but he butted heads with GM in CLE pretty good a couple times.[/quote]I don’t think he’s out by any means. I’m not as certain as you the Cubs are looking for any type and to be honest, I doubt they want the yes guy as much as you think they do.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I love second-half Peenya. If the Cubs strike out on Fielder/Pujols I’d be happy with another season from him.[/quote]
Do Not Want. Aging 1B who have a crazy half season after two meh seasons do not scream “RE-SIGN” to me.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I mean this in no way to reflect on Julie’s credibility, because I have no doubt someone told her this. But honestly this stuff smacks of the same “in the know” attitude and boiler room gossip that accompanied the “hispanic faction divides locker room” rumors.
But I agree that if the source is solid, and this is indeed true, Quade is a goner.[/quote]
There are two differences: the hispanic thing made no sense whatsoever while this is, in my opinion, stating the obvious. I could come forward with a source tomorrow stating something similar and I’d more than likely be right. I could also talk about how the Brewers love their manager and the Reds now hate Baker. I’d more than likely be right each time.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Do Not Want. Aging 1B who have a crazy half season after two meh seasons do not scream “RE-SIGN” to me.[/quote]Agreed. I don’t want to have anything to do with Pena next season.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t think he’s out by any means. I’m not as certain as you the Cubs are looking for any type and to be honest, I doubt they want the yes guy as much as you think they do.[/quote]Yeah, I could be wrong. But given the way Ricketts as gone about his business thus far, his philosophy definitely appears to be “don’t rock the boat.”
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, but I think his attitude is exactly what the Cubs don’t want.[/quote]The Cubs want to win so they’ll hire the guy they think best gives them that chance. I don’t think the front office disliked Piniella at all. I think they liked him quite a lot actually.
mb21Quote Reply
It also depends heavily on who is hiring the new manager. I can not imagine that Hendry would be allowed to hire his 4th new manager.
Ricketts isn’t going to want to piss away 2 years of a manager contract when he eventually fires Hendry after next season. Any manager with any sort of reputation is going to want a 3 year deal. Hell, Quade got 2 years.
I think Quade’s fate is tied to Hendry’s. If he’s back, Quade is back. If he’s gone, then Quade is gone. It makes zero sense to rid the team of one and not the other.
Aisle424Quote Reply
No one else on this list particularly does for me either. Except maybe Berkman, for the gif possibilites (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think if the Cubs did want that yes man, Quade is not the guy they want. At least two or three times this year Quade put to rest any story that the organization would typically have run with in the past. Anything to distract the fans from the shit on the field and Quade has kept the focus on that shit. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]No one else on this list particularly does for me either. Except maybe Berkman, for the gif possibilites (dying laughing)
Neither do anyone else on[/quote]
4 out of 14 are ex-Cubs. (dying laughing)
Aisle424Quote Reply
If Phillips is hurt, the Reds already small postseason chances ————> nil
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]There are two differences: the hispanic thing made no sense whatsoever while this is, in my opinion, stating the obvious. I could come forward with a source tomorrow stating something similar and I’d more than likely be right. I could also talk about how the Brewers love their manager and the Reds now hate Baker. I’d more than likely be right each time.[/quote]Yeah, I see what you’re saying. I’d love to believe the Ricketts see Quade’s shortcomings so clearly. But I just don’t know. They’ve given no indication whatsoever that they are going to fire Quade or Hendry.
And how can they fire Quade and not Hendry? Has any other GM ever gotten to hire 5 managers and only have 3 playoff appearances to show for it?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It also depends heavily on who is hiring the new manager. I can not imagine that Hendry would be allowed to hire his 4th new manager.
Ricketts isn’t going to want to piss away 2 years of a manager contract when he eventually fires Hendry after next season. Any manager with any sort of reputation is going to want a 3 year deal. Hell, Quade got 2 years.
I think Quade’s fate is tied to Hendry’s. If he’s back, Quade is back. If he’s gone, then Quade is gone. It makes zero sense to rid the team of one and not the other.[/quote]That makes sense and I don’t necessarily disagree with you, but I think Hendry is kept and I think Hendry fires Quade. I think their fates are only tied together if Hendry is fired. As you said, there’s no way Quade is around if Hendry got fired.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It also depends heavily on who is hiring the new manager. I can not imagine that Hendry would be allowed to hire his 4th new manager.
Ricketts isn’t going to want to piss away 2 years of a manager contract when he eventually fires Hendry after next season. Any manager with any sort of reputation is going to want a 3 year deal. Hell, Quade got 2 years.
I think Quade’s fate is tied to Hendry’s. If he’s back, Quade is back. If he’s gone, then Quade is gone. It makes zero sense to rid the team of one and not the other.[/quote]THIS
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Only the Cubs would allow a GM to scapegoat 4 different managers for the teams’ failures.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]No one else on this list particularly does for me either. Except maybe Berkman, for the gif possibilites (dying laughing)[/quote]i’d rather they put Colvin at 1st if they can’t sign one of Pujols, Fielder or Berkman. I suppose if Pena would come back for under $5 million, that’s fine, but nothing over that.
mb21Quote Reply
I’ll be shocked if Phillips is back out there next inning. That ankle is going ot start swelling
BerseliusQuote Reply
Adolfo thought that one was gone.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I guess the other option would be that Hendry gets a 2 year extention and he fires Quade and brings in a new manager on a 3 year contract.
Or it could be a one year extension and he hires another Quade-type to a 2 year deal.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Only the Cubs would allow a GM to scapegoat 4 different managers for the teams’ failures.[/quote]http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/
mb21Quote Reply
I’m definitely feeling some smug satisfaction about seeing Cueto knocked around
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I guess the other option would be that Hendry gets a 2 year extention and he fires Quade and brings in a new manager on a 3 year contract.
Or it could be a one year extension and he hires another Quade-type to a 2 year deal.[/quote]My guess is that he goes back to the known manager types. He had a lot more success with them.
mb21Quote Reply
Z ———-> waivers, no surprisingly
BerseliusQuote Reply
There’s no way that’s an out.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Z ———-> waivers, no surprisingly[/quote]He was claimed?
Teams put almost all players on waivers after August 1st.
mb21Quote Reply
Good call. I’d make a terrible umpire.
mb21Quote Reply
That was some BS umpiringI would also be a terrible ump (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]He was claimed?
Teams put almost all players on waivers after August 1st.[/quote]
No claim, the only story is that his name happened to leak out
BerseliusQuote Reply
We’re unstoppable!
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]
That was some BS umpiringI would also be a terrible ump (dying laughing)[/quote]At regular speed that looked like an obvious blown call.
mb21Quote Reply
Zambrano definitely seems to have found the velocity button today. Jesus.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Alonso is bad at fielding baseballs.
mb21Quote Reply
Castro with the .770OPS now. Get to .800 before the year ends!
DoogolasQuote Reply
Watching the Cubs win is a lot more fun than watching them lose. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Best offense in the majors?
DoogolasQuote Reply
Pena .800OPS.
I hear Type-B!
DoogolasQuote Reply
The Reds defense has caught a case of the Cubs (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
That Castro at-bat is a good example of why I don’t like the idea of having 2-strike foul balls count as strike 3. I love those battling at-bats.
ACTQuote Reply
I also personally wouldn’t mind seeing Pena back if the Cubs don’t sign a star at 1B. He’s not bad by any means (though not terribly good, either).
ACTQuote Reply
I’ll say it again. If Castro isn’t cranking out 20 HR seasons in the next three years, I will be extremely disappointed.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]I’ll say it again. If Castro isn’t cranking out 20 HR seasons in the next three years, I will be extremely disappointed.[/quote]Why?
DoogolasQuote Reply
holy shit, lots of baseball talk here.
I didn’t realize Laura Ricketts’ nom de plume was “Melissa.”
GWQuote Reply
Problem with Peenya is his agent has a history of being able to talk teams into insane contracts.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]I’ll say it again. If Castro isn’t cranking out 20 HR seasons in the next three years, I will be extremely disappointed.[/quote]I’d be happy if he was a 200 hit guy whose defense improved. He still plays a bit like a rookie. I think his HRs will be gravy.
binkyQuote Reply
I’d like to see him draw more walks, but that’s hard for a low-power contact hitter to do (then again, Wade Boggs…)
ACTQuote Reply
Basically, I just want Castro to be a right-handed Tony Gwynn who plays shortstop. Is that so much to ask?
ACTQuote Reply
My dream is that Castro could become a George Brett-type. But I admittedly have a huge fondness for Brett and am asking way to much of Castro. He’ll never have the HR stroke Brett had, and probably won’t be the same gloveman, either. But that would be my dream.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
One super nice thing about Castro is that I think he only has one error since the all star break and only like 3 since June started. It’s still a fairly small sample size, but that’s a RIDICULOUSLY huge improvement.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Z is having himself a nice year at the plate. I wish he were having a better year on the mound (he hasn’t been that bad, but he hasn’t been that good).
ACTQuote Reply
George Brett’s 1980 season is one of the most insane hitting years, ever. 118 RBI in 117 G. 22 K in 515 AB. 1.118 OPS. 203 OPS+. 37% of his hits went for extra bases, and he tossed in 15 SB (6 CS) for good measure. 200 wRC+. 5.97 WPA/LI. TZ +9 at 3B, and 9.5 WAR. Infuckingsane.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I bet there have been times in Colvin’s career when he’s sturck out 22 times in a week. Brett k’d 22 times in 117 games.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
FG says he led the league in WAR, WPA, RE24 and WPA/LI. That’s pretty good for someone who missed over a quarter of the season.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]FG says he led the league in WAR, WPA, RE24 and WPA/LI. That’s pretty good for someone who missed over a quarter of the season.[/quote]Yeah, it’s an amazing season. One of my earliest baseball memories is Brett hitting a HR. I always had to be #5 in LL, played ball with a huge wad of gum in my cheek, my mitt was/is a Wilson George Brett sig model…he’s my favorite ballplayer, ever.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Z’s bat is worth 0.9 fWAR and 0.6 rWAR and that’s before today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Brett was mostly before my time (before I was following baseball, anyway, though I wasn’t quite born yet in 1980), but I did see him play toward the end of his career at the first MLB game I attended.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Z’s bat is worth 0.9 fWAR and 0.6 rWAR and that’s before today.[/quote]Good thing those measures don’t take into account striking out with the runner on third and no outs.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Brett was mostly before my time (before I was following baseball, anyway, though I wasn’t quite born yet in 1980), but I did see him play toward the end of his career at the first MLB game I attended.[/quote]My first real baseball-following season was probably 85, so I got to see a fair amount of him. An incredible player. Strange that you don’t hear his name much anymore.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Good thing those measures don’t take into account striking out with the runner on third and no outs.[/quote]
I am not as familiar with WAR calculations but I assume that it removes sequencing from the equation and just looks at his wOBA or OPS+ or whatever their offensive component is. Of course, striking out with the runner on third and no outs is typical Cub.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Z’s bat is worth 0.9 fWAR and 0.6 rWAR and that’s before today.[/quote]
He’s a real good hitting pitcher.
[quote name=ACT]Good thing those measures don’t take into account striking out with the runner on third and no outs.[/quote]Yeah, it’d be tough to do, seeing as he has three at bats in those situations after today with a runner on third and less than two outs, and is 0/3 with only one strikeout.
If it makes you feel better, he’s a beast in those situations with two outs. 2/3 with 3RBI with a runner on third and 2 outs. And he’s 1/2 with the bases loaded!
Anyways, on a more important note, I finally found the last time Castro made an error: July 10th. 22 games without one now!
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I am not as familiar with WAR calculations but I assume that it removes sequencing from the equation and just looks at his wOBA or OPS+ or whatever their offensive component is. Of course, striking out with the runner on third and no outs is typical Cub.[/quote]They’re both based on linear weights, which is context-free. To take situational hitting into account would require something like RE24, WPA, or WPA/LI.
ACTQuote Reply
I wasn’t quite 6 years old when Brett was chasing .400, but I remember it. It’s one of my earliest memories of Major League Baseball. Like MO, he was also my favorite player. The Royals were the first team I ever saw in person. I think it was 1982, but could have been the strike-shortened 1981 season. They were my favorite team early on.
mb21Quote Reply
I’m pretty sure this is the first game I saw: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KCA/KCA199205300.shtml
George stole a base and Juan hit a home run.
ACTQuote Reply
My uncle was a huge George Brett fan, and that game was on his (and my father’s) birthday.
ACTQuote Reply
So what was that call Quade was arguing that turned out to be right? I couldn’t find a replay so was hoping someone could give a brief recap…thankee.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It was on a forceout at second. Phillips dropped the ball when trying to transfer it to his throwing hand to get a DP. Q thought he dropped it before the transfer.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]It was on a forceout at second. Phillips dropped the ball when trying to transfer it to his throwing hand to get a DP. Q thought he dropped it before the transfer.[/quote]
Ah. This must have been before he got all kinds of messed up on that collision.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Adding 2 + 2 and getting 5: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/14651/cubs-bad-crops-on-the-farm
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ah. This must have been before he got all kinds of messed up on that collision.[/quote]Nope. He stayed in the game for a while after the collision before being removed for a pinch hitter.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Big Z]“I’m not (Tony) Campana, you know?” Zambrano said with a grin of the Cubs rookie who hit an insider-the-park home run on Friday. “I’m a big man, big men are supposed to hit the ball with authority. Inside the park, I’ll leave that to Campana. But it was a good pitch to hit. Thank God I was able to crush it.” [/quote]
Love Big Z.
/faget
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New Pic of the Day: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/ov-pic-of-the-day-joey-haz-a-sad.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
(dying laughing), only 9 homegrown players. What a stupid statement.
DoogolasQuote Reply