Brewers and Phillies prepare offers to keep Greinke and Hamels

In Commentary And Analysis, News And Rumors by dmick89100 Comments

The Brewers are willing to offer Zack Greinke around $100 million over 5 years while the Phillies are prepared to offer Cole Hamels an equally large contract extension. Greinke and Hamels were likely going to be the two best starters available at the deadline if their respective teams made them available.

My first thought was that this was potentially good news for the Cubs who figure to be active on the trade front in the coming weeks. If Greinke and Hamels are off the market, Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster might become more appealing.

My second thought was that both teams had explored a trade and didn't like what teams were willing to give up. This could be bad news for the Cubs who hope to better their farm system through the trades they'll make this month.

My next thought was that this was just posturing by the teams. That seems to be the least likely of all I thought about. It would not look good for either team to leak info about long term contracts because if they weren't sincere it probably would piss off the player. However, it's a distinct possibility.

It was easy enough for me to figure out which seemed the most unlikely, but I'm not sure which is the most likely. Let's talk about the other two in more detail.

This could be good news for the Cubs if both were taken off the market. That was my initial thought, but I'm not sure how accurate that is. Dempster and Garza may be the best two pitchers available at that point, but that doesn't mean teams are going to give up more to acquire them. Imagine that Ryan Theriot is the best player available in a trade. Do we really think teams are going to give up a lot to acquire someone like that? It might help the Cubs in that there are fewer arms to acquire, but it also may make teams more content to stand pat knowing their competitors won't get all that much better. 

If both the Brewers and Phillies had briefly explored trade options for Greinke and Hamels and found no acceptable offers, this is obviously bad news for the Cubs. They would be unlikely to find what they currently consider an acceptable offer for Garza or Dempster. If either are traded they would more than likely be acquiring less talent in return than they'd hoped. This doesn't mean it's less talent than we've projected they'll receive. It just means it would be less talent than they were expecting. 

Both of these seem plausible. It might make guys like Dempster and Garza more appealing though I'm not convinced it means they'll bring more in return. It might also mean the Cubs can expect less than they were intiially expecting. There's still the off chance that this is just posturing though that seems highly unlikely to me. 

What do you guys think? 

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  2. WaLi

    mb21 wrote:

    I wonder if one of the unintended consequences of the CBA will be fewer prospects going to 4-year colleges in the future. A prospect who goes to junior college has leverage (can return to school) after the 1st year, 2nd year (could then transfer) and after the 3rd year. A college player has leverage after the 3rd year (sometimes the 2nd if you’re a sophomore eligible pick).

    I had this same thought when I found out that JC players had that option. I suppose they wouldn’t get as much exposure as playing for a big college, but I guess if you are good scouts will find you. But if you choose to go to a 4-year you can’t enter the draft until you are 21, finished junior year, or senior year.

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  3. Mercurial Outfielder

    SPECULATION: Alfonso Soriano would be an interesting get for the Rays if the Cubs ate about 90 percent of the money owed to him.— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 14, 2012

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  4. Mercurial Outfielder

    MB is there a slightly more optimistic way to look at this and say that if Greinke and Hamels are taken off the market, it could improve the market for Dempster and/or Garza because there are fewer options for shopping GMs? I mean, it’s not just a matter of them being the best available options–it’s a matter of them being maybe the only options, or two of a select few. Can’t scarcity drive value up at least a bit?

    I guess a shitty market is a shitty market, but we’ve said all along the Cubs just need a GM who is just desperate enough to give them what they want…maybe extensions to Hamels and Grienke drive that kind of desperation?

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  5. Urk

    I don’t know. When the Brewers and Phillies are doing that exploring, they’re looking at a market that almost certainly has Garza and Dempster in it, and maybe seeing Garza and Dempster as bringing down the price of what they’re shopping. Hamels and Greinke are better than Garza and Dempster, sure, but if Garza and Dempster weren’t so obviously available, then the demand for Greinke and Hamels would certainly be higher, right?

    Also, I’m guessing that both of those teams are more likely to contend sooner than the Cubs, so what constitutes a good offer might be different, The Phillies and Brewers might want prospects closer to MLB ready, the Cubs might want talent that they could develop while the Major League club is still sucking.

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  6. Aisle424

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    That’s what I was thinking, MO. I think that is a possibility if that desperation exists. I don’t think it does. Yet.

    Every time Dempster does anything, everyone is all, “Could this be Dempster’s last blah blah blah as a Cub?” and I just don’t buy it yet. The Cubs have leverage with Dempster since he almost assuredly would net them a compensation pick assuming he doesn’t blow anything out in the last half of the season. The Cubs don’t HAVE to deal Garza either. Granted it would be better long-term if they did, but somebody has to pitch on the ML level and they could do much worse than Garza.

    As other options dry up, I think both Dempster and Garza move up wish lists, and GMs start jostling for position to see who will land that extra arm. It won’t get crazy, because neither guy is a CC Sabathia or even a Rich Harden, but it should push up a couple of offers into what the Cubs would deem acceptable.

    I think Garza goes, possibly with LaHair. Dempster stays.

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  7. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Aisle424:
    Agreed. On LaHair, I think he needs to start getting starts in RF so they can maybe get him hitting again and entice some teams. DeJesus was shit in June, has 3 XBH in the last 28 days, none of which are HR, and 5:1 K:BB to go along with a .697 OPS during that time. Maybe he needs a rest. But at least with LaHair, you’ve got some pop out there even though you lose a lot with his glove, compared to DeJesus

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  14. Mercurial Outfielder

    There’s nothing like watching finely tuned and conditioned athletes do what they best. And then there’s this:

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  15. mb21

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    MB is there a slightly more optimistic way to look at this and say that if Greinke and Hamels are taken off the market, it could improve the market for Dempster and/or Garza because there are fewer options for shopping GMs? I mean, it’s not just a matter of them being the best available options–it’s a matter of them being maybe the only options, or two of a select few. Can’t scarcity drive value up at least a bit?

    That’s possible, but imagine a situation in which Ryan Theriot was the best hitter available. Do you think his value increases and if so, by how much? It’s definitely possible, but I think it’s also possible that another team in contention may say to themselves that the best another team in contention can do is add a Dempster and Garza so they’ll keep their prospects. Imagine the Cubs are in contention. They’re 1 game out. The best the division leading Reds can do is add a Matt Garza or Ryan Dempster. Do you really care? Isn’t there many ways in which you could improve your team by a win? If I’m the Cubs GM in that situation I let the Reds give up their prospects and I look at cheaper options to narrow the gap.

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  31. mb21

    @ Berselius37:
    I’ve completely forgotten about the series previews. I actually think about them the day before a series and then don’t think about them until game 2 or 3. (dying laughing)

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  34. Mercurial Outfielder

    Series Preview:

    Cubs: Bad

    D-backs: Not as bad

    Prediction: Ugly baseball punctuated by worse weather

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  35. Mercurial Outfielder

    Man, ccd looks absolutely prescient for his Soto-is-Wilkins-redux stance of a few years back.

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  44. mb21

    @ Berselius37:
    I think that started from a comment on 1060 and I don’t remember if it was me or ccd, but we both immediately recognized some similarities. Too lazy to try and figure out what those were, but Soto has turned out to be Rick Wilkins. Both are examples of why we need larger samples than 1 or even 2 years to really know what a player’s talent level is. You can add Rich Hill, Jerome Walton and a bunch of others to that group too. It’s also why I was still somewhat cautiously optimistic about Zambrano entering 2005 and not all out optimistic. It’s why I didn’t buy F7s hot start and why I still don’t buy he’s a good starter. I buy he’s better than what I thought, but that’s about it.

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  45. BubbaBiscuit

    On Hamels and Greinke,
    I think it is a combination of factors going into the teams trying to extend them. One, the buying team gets no draft pick anymore, but if the team keeps them and they leave, they will definitely offer arb and get a sandwich pick, of which there will be less of and the new draft rules makes these picks more valuable then in drafts past. This is a nice incentive to just keep the player and try to sign him to keep fans from thinking you are giving up and aren’t trying to put a winning product on the field. Two, with the huge amount of TV dollars coming into teams making prices of buying teams going through the roof since the Ricketts bought the Cubs, it figures that teams are going to have more money to throw around to free agents this off-season. Rumors have the Dodgers willing to spend lots of money as well as other rumors about the Blue Jays, Orioles, Padres, Marlins, Red Sox willing to spend for a front line starter like these two. If their current teams can get them to sign for around the Matt Cain extension numbers, you could see that being a huge bargain for the team compared to what they could have made in free agency. All of this points to mid-tier rentals or players under control for more than this season being the ones likely to get moved. So, what I am really saying is why is Seattle not even listening to offers for King Felix?

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  48. Dick McCheesedoodle

    @ mb21:

    I’m just looking forward to the trade so I can read your 4000 word post on how although you don’t care about these prospects, you are projecting for the year 2017 that they will all be terrible.

    This will be followed closely by a post extolling the virtues of Ryan Flaherty… although you will likely say you don’t care about Ryan Flaherty somewhere in the post.

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  49. Rice Cube

    I did not read every word, but I’m hoping that Greinke and Hamels get dealt because there’s a chance that they won’t re-sign with the new team and then the Cubs can throw armored trucks full of money at them without forfeiting a draft pick next season.

    I realize that this probably will affect the trade return for Garza and Dempster though.

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  51. Aisle424

    mb21 wrote:

    The Cubs need to find a GM who believes Dempster will keep this scoreless innings streak going for the rest of the year.

    Hopefully Cashman is listening to Hendry.

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  58. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ GW:
    Agreed (that was a bit harsh), b, truly; a sad life–you must lead. Consi,der your-self (war)ned.

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  63. mb21

    BubbaBiscuit wrote:

    All of this points to mid-tier rentals or players under control for more than this season being the ones likely to get moved.

    I think so too. There’s not nearly as much incentive for a team to acquire a rental now. Part of the bonus of the rental in the past was you could offer arbitration and get draft picks. Not anymore. I agree with what 424 said. I think Garza is traded, but Dempster stays put.

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  68. Rizzo the Rat

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17653
    Subscriber only, unfortunately, but I loved this:

    For the overwhelming majority of players drafted, their bonus check will be the largest pay day of their baseball careers, and Mark Appel has every right to try to maximize that value. It’s a risk, as he could get hurt and/or not pitch well next year, but he’s not stupid, and he’s not selfish. If anything, he’s the first player to pay the harshest price of a new draft system that doesn’t allow every team to pay players what they are worth. You want to blame someone? It’s not Appel, it’s not the Pirates, and it’s not Boras. It’s the owners whose strange obsession with the draft has created a system that punishes players by protecting teams from themselves.

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  70. mb21

    Rizzo the Rat wrote:

    Mark Appel has every right to try to maximize that value

    Of course he does, but that doesn’t mean the decision wasn’t stupid. You can’t ignore the risk and other factors that he has no control of. They matter and in the end it’s a huge, huge risk by him to get a couple million more. My guess is that he slips in the draft again and gets less money next year than he could have gotten this year. There’s no reason to think he’s going to increase his value and in a weak draft he was maybe the top pitching prospect. He was maybe the 4th best pitching prospect. The team with the most money to spend on their first pick wasn’t willing to go any higher than $1 million under slot. That was his max value THIS year. That goes down next year. the fact the Astros weren’t even willing to offer slot to this guy really should have told him to sign the deal with the Pirates.

    Of course it’s his right. I’m not sure anybody has said otherwise, but saying he made a dumb decision is the correct thing to say.

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  72. Aisle424

    At the 14:10 mark Gottlieb asks James, “have you ever showered with a boy? Do you know anybody who has showered with a boy?” James says “Yes, that was actually quite common in the town I grew up in. That was quite common in America 40 years ago.”

    If that was so common 40 years ago, how come I’m not hearing other 50+ year-olds bringing this up? It’s not like people are hesitant to pass off awful behavior as old people simply not changing with the times. Granted, using the n-word or making terrible racist or sexist comments isn’t the same as pedophilia, but still, I’d have thought in all of this hype and coverage, we would have heard somebody else talk about how commonplace it used to be for men to shower with young boys. Shouldn’t it have come up in his defense? They only said HE showered with boys all the time, right?

    Where the hell did Bill James grow up? This seems like the episode of Friends where Chandler goes to Joey’s tailor:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fANwTBK3Ylg

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  74. dylanj

    in small town KS sometimes there would be shower sharing situations like lake campgrounds ect. But it wasn’t a man and a boy in a stall alone. Nobody was grabbing anybody. And it was fucking awkward as hell even then.

    I have no fucking clue what James is thinking/doing here

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  77. Rizzo the Rat

    Jed Lowrie is hurt (possible ACL sprain). This doesn’t bode well for the Cubs’ chances of securing a no. 1 pick.

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  79. mb21

    James grew up in a small town in Kansas near where I currently live. Whether or not showering with boys was more common back then, it’s not today. Furthermore, these weren’t just showers. There was touching and ass rape and that wasn’t more common back then. I think James has done something he’s criticized his entire life: ignored the facts.

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  86. josh

    on the other plus side, I watched Randy Johnson’s 19K game and Kevin Brown’s almost perfect game (he hit a batter in the bottom of the 8th) for the Marlins in 1997. I didn’t know that dude, but he had a good career. I guess Espn will just show random older games? I don’t really watch TV.

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  94. GBTS

    @ Rice Cube:
    This just shows why we don’t need instant replay. That umpire was smart enough to realize, without any help from anyone else, that the runner there was safe. If we had instant replay we would have needed to stop the game for at least 20 minutes while someone in a booth somewhere watched countless angles to really see whether or not the runner was safe on that very close play.

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  95. GBTS

    @ josh:
    “Titties fucking big asses” won’t help in steering traffic, there’s thousands of pages that offer that type of content. You need to narrowcast, like “titty fucking Arby’s value meal.” These are the people we’re trying to attract.

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