In the comments awhile back we were talking about the Cubs possibly going after Justin Upton. GW wrote about Towers postseason press conference in which he identified 3 areas the Dbacks will try to get better at. GW said this:
The article also confirms they are trying to make room for Adam Eaton in their starting outfield, leaving Kubel, Gerardo Parra, Chris Young, and maybe even Upton as potential trade bait. If the Cubs were willing, I think a Castro/Garza for Upton/Corbin framework would have legs.
I had intented to write this much sooner than I actually did, but like the Cubs, I'm just not very good. I was curious what Upton's trade value might be. Prior to the 2010 season, Upton signed a 6-year, $50 million contract, which takes him through his arbitration years and also buys a couple free agent years too.
To estimate his trade value, I'm going to keep it very simple and not nearly as accurate as it could be. I'm looking at Upton's WAR (fWAR, rWAR, WARP) and am going to estimate what he'll be worth over the remaining years of his contract. This isn't going to produce a very accurate projection, but it's probably not too far off either. It's good enough for our puproses. If trading for Upton seems more a possibility than a dream, I'll look into deeper, but for now this will do.
I'm going to consider the last 4 and create a weighted average. Beginning in 2009 I get the following average WAR for Upton: 4.4, 2.1, 5.5 and 2.4. Weighting the seasons 2, 3, 4, and 5 results in an weighted average of 3.5.
Upton just completed his age 24 season so we should expect he'll get better over the next couple of years. We'll go with 4.0 WAR in 2013, 4.5 WAR in 2014 and 2015. That's a total of 13 WAR before his contract expires after the 2015 season.
If we use win values of $5.25 million, $5.5 million and $5.75 million we get a total value over those 3 years of $71.5 million. He'll earn $38.25 million meaning he has a surplus trade value of $33.25 million. In terms of prospects, that's worth approximately 1 top 10 hitting prospect or a couple top 10 pitching prospects.
The Cubs don't have a top 10 prospect, but Javier Baez won't be far off. He'll probably be in the 11-25 range, which is worth about $25.1 million.
I know GW mentioned a trade built around Garza and Castro, but if you could get Upton for Baez plus another prospect, would you do it? What about Garza and Baez?
Comments
aside: http://obstructedview.net/aside/arbitration-salary-projections-for-the-cubs.html
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t see how the team can compete by shedding pitching. I gotta believe that Garza is worth more to the team than Upton. I don’t know though. I dont like either way to get Upton.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Garza is probably about a 2 to 2.5 WAR pitcher and Upton is about 3.5 or so. Upton is more valuable. The Cubs, if they really wanted to contend, would have to add more pitching, but they have to add pitching even if they keep Garza if they want to contend.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Right, right. But can they upgrade or even replace Garza with the market the way it is?
I don’t know. I don’t want to lose Baez. I’m more ambivalent about Castro.
joshQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
josh wrote:
I wouldn’t really want to lose Baez either, but for Upton I’d do it. Upton is a tremendously talented ballplayer and would immediately be the best player on the team. He’s the kind of guy you can build around. He’s the potential superstar this team has lacked since Sosa. I think Upton in RF and in the middle of the order with Rizzo makes the Cubs offense significantly better.
mb21Quote Reply
I’m with Josh, even though I realize that Baez is not a sure thing and Castro is signed to a friendly contract. I haven’t soured on Castro per say, but I am not super high on him. But I think I’d do either of those deals, because Justin Upton can be a regular 6+ win player, which I don’t see anyone otherwise on this team being.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I’d prefer to hang onto Castro though I wouldn’t hold up a deal for Justin Upton because of him. If it’s Castro for Upton, I think I’d kind of do what GW suggested and add Garza and go from there (try to get a pitcher in return). I’d be fine with that.
mb21Quote Reply
upton for garza and baez? throw in a halfway decent pitching prospect and i’d be all over that deal. is that asking too much?
i guess it all comes down to how good is garza going to be in three years. if i had to bet, i’d bet on him being better than average but not by a huge margin. i think upton will be much better than average in three years. at that time, baez may be an all-star or he may be out of baseball forever. same thing applies o whatever prospect the cubs got in the deal. to me that deal is a no-brainer.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
castro/garza/baez for upton and mid-level pitching prospects. great deal for both sides?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I’m with josh here and I know it’s not the right reasoning. But being a Cubs fan makes me think every move the Cubs make is going to be wrong.
I’d feel safer holding on to Baez and watching him be a bust since he can’t play 3rd base than trading him and watching Baez turn into A-rod for the Diamond Backs while Upton breaks his leg walking into the shitty Cubs dugout.
I need to get over that mentality.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I know. I have an immediate gut reaction trading away anyone with potential. God damn it, it just never seems to work out (he writes, thinking only of the times when it didn’t work out).
joshQuote Reply
I honestly don’t see them trading their first draft pick. I think they’d trade Castro first. Truly.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Baez was drafted by Hendry.
mb21Quote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
That’s a lot unless you’ve really soured on Castro, in which I’m sure we could find a team that hasn’t soured on him and would give us more bang for the buck.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Also not sure why we are assuming Upton becomes this great player and Castro doesn’t. Upton was kind of average this year.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
@ jtsunami:
Castro has more years of club control too. Would a straight up Castro for Upton be a fair trade?
WaLiQuote Reply
You didn’t read/listen to every word. I advocated for this exact trade in the podcast I did with sitrick2 a few months ago (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
I like Upton, he’s still relatively young and I think he still has big upside as Mish mentioned above. Plus it’s not like the Cubs need to ask any players to defer $3m from their salary to make room for him either. They can just use the money they’re still receiving from the Silva trade.
BerseliusQuote Reply
jtsunami wrote:
IIRC Upton was playing through a thumb injury or something for most of the season.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I wouldn’t do it but I am not a fan of Upton. Mostly because I draft him in fantasy based on his good years and then get a mediocre year, so I don’t take him the next year when he flourishes again. He pisses me off and I don’t want that shit on my actual team. Not at that price.
Aisle424Quote Reply
jtsunami wrote:
i guess i meant like a whole bunch of pitching prospects. i would trade anything/anyone to not have to watch the 2012 pitching staff again. not even sure what dbacks have in their system though.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Okay, my math is probably completely wrong as I’ve never done this before and I just used brefWAR estimate for Castro. But after looking at the numbers they should be throwing in stuff if there was a Castro/Upton trade.
Upton Castro
Age WAR Salary Value Age brefWAR Salary Value $/WAR
2013 25 4 $9.8 $21.0 23 3.5 $5.0 $18.4 5.25
2014 26 4.5 $14.3 $24.8 24 4 $5.0 $22.0 5.5
2015 27 4.5 $14.5 $25.9 25 4.5 $6.0 $25.9 5.75
2016 28 4.5 $16.0 $27.0 26 5 $7.0 $30.0 6
2017 29 4.5 $17.0 $28.1 27 5 $9.0 $31.3 6.25
2018 30 4 $18.0 $26.0 28 5 $10.0 $32.5 6.5
2019 31 3.5 $19.0 $23.6 29 5 $11.0 $33.8 6.75
$108.5 $176.4 $53.0 $193.8
WaLiQuote Reply
The other reason why I like trading for Justin Upton is that, aside from his brother, all of the Free Agents on the market are SK’s age.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Trade his ass!
joshQuote Reply
With Soler and Almora coming through the system, it sure would create one hell of a potential outfield. I would say that you do this trade if you’re confident that Villanueva can become an everyday MLB 3B. And, as someone mentioned already, I’d want a halfway decent pitching prospect thrown in there as well, because Baez would be a lot to give up.
Jed Jam BandQuote Reply
@ Jed Jam Band:
I think that is my other irrational hesitancy to just trade Baez away. I’m not interested in another third base saga where we spent 30 years trying to replace Aramis like we did trying to replace Santo. I’d prefer to have both Baez and Villanueva in the system so we aren’t putting all our eggs in one basket (again).
Aisle424Quote Reply
I forgot in which of the 20 bajillion threads GBTS asked this but somewhere over the past week or two, Nick Swisher said he was seeking a Jayson Werth-esque contract. When I read that I simultaneously facepalm/(dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Jayson Werth has a cupcake:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’d take him for a reasonable amount. But, yeah, there’s no way in hell the Cubs would drop a ton of cash on him.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
(dying laughing) Yeah, good luck with that.
Maybe it was a miscommunication where he said he wanted to be paid what he was “worthy” of and the sportswrither thought he said he wanted something “Werth-y.”
GBTSQuote Reply
@ jtsunami:
Because he’s already shown he can be. He has a lot of power (career .198 ISO through his age 24 season). That’s very good. He’s patient. I think Castro gets better, but he’s not very likely to ever be as good as Upton. That said, I’d really prefer not to trade him for Upton. I think the Cubs can do it with others and they should. I’d trade Baez for Upton in a heartbeat. Even in his down years he’s average. If you want to get an impact player you’re either going to have to spend a ton of money or give up something valuable to acquire it. That or get lucky and hope you develop one.
mb21Quote Reply
A-Rod’s been benched. Ibanez in as DH tonight.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
David Wright is a free agent after next season so it won’t be very hard to replace that production if the Cubs really want to.
Players who have the potential that Justin Upton has rarely become available at that young an age. If he is available, and it’s a big if (the Dbacks would be silly to trade him in my opinion) you’ve got to make an effort to acquire him.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Now that I’ve heard him, I just want to see his name as “Ibanez” as in the guitar.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I find it extremely difficult to believe that the Mets don’t keep David Wright. And even if they don’t, that’s a draft pick surrendered, although David Wright is more than likely going to be better than any draft pick, but that has to be at least a minor consideration.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Aw damn it! Now you got the Hope Monster gnawing at the back of my neck!
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
GLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR LARBUDDY LARBUDDY
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
sucker.
wait….me too. fuck.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
This is possibly the coolest tattoo I’ve seen in a while:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Wow that formatting is awful. Basically Castro is worth more, but that estimate for Upton that MB used probably isn’t as high as it could be since last year he seems to be an up and down player. I’m also assuming Castro can get from 3.5 WAR (where he was this year) to 5 WAR by the time his contract is up at the age of 29.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I think 5 might be generous. Not that I’m washing my hands of the kid, but to see how his patience has dropped off, and it wasn’t good to start with, worries me.
joshQuote Reply
He did get a bit better in the second half even though the average dropped.
Comparable number of PAs, first half = .291/.314/.422, second half = .275/.332/.440, walked more, struck out way less. Small sample size alert and he’s obviously still a work in progress, but Starlin Castro might be learning.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
I think so too, but if his defense is improving (Which it looked like it is) and if he continues to get better (the kid is only 22) then I don’t think a WAR increase of 1.5 (from 3.5 to 5) over 7 years is unreasonable.
Actually I was a bit surprised to see his WAR was 3.5 this year.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I think so too. I would hate to give up on Castro while he is so young. Conclusions drawn – Castro is going to be a perennial All Star and first round ballot HOF. Prove me wrong.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
He’s also not that great of a baserunner, which seems like something he could improve with time. Not that he’ll steal a bunch of bases, but he might learn how to go 1st to third and things like that. although, maybe just staying put on bases and working on hitting is a better option for him.
joshQuote Reply
They spelled “Milhouse” wrong.
mambochickenQuote Reply
mambochickenQuote Reply
@ mambochicken:
THOSE SONS OF BITCHES
Rice CubeQuote Reply
mambochicken wrote:
Yeah it should be “Thrillho”
MishQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’d like to blame the base running fails on the previous regime’s coaching staff not giving a shit, but then again I really don’t know.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mambochicken:
(dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Milpool
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
(dying laughing) another great reference.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
http://www.11points.com/Tv/11_extraordinarily_clever_simpsons_tattoos
Both make it.
uncle daveQuote Reply
i have a feeling that the yankees win by about 14 runs tonight.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I’d like to see them go up 14, and then Baltimore come all the way back and win it by 1. That would be the perfect baseball game.
joshQuote Reply
Mish wrote:
I like this. I want to see hitting separated. Plus, it makes it easier to compare it to stats on other sites (OPS+, True Average).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Belated thought on list night: I loved how when Verlander threw a pitch outside to the first batter, he decided to throw there again and again and again. The pitch tracker graphic showed a large cluster of pitches in the spot outside where the ump (sometimes) called a strike. I knew it would be a long night for A’s batters when I saw that.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s like Justin was playing Super Mario Brothers and realized he could get 99 lives by jumping on a turtle shell a hundred times. It was unfair but awesome.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I’m sure they’ll put an asterisk by his name in the record books, for exploiting a flaw in the system.
joshQuote Reply
So, so wrong.
And hilarious:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/josh-hamilton-relieved-he-made-it-through-entire-s,29894/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_campaign=standard-post:headline:default
joshQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
I wish.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Wait, A-Rod is on the bench?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Girardi: A-Rod’s been struggling against right-handed pitching this series.
Me: wtf?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Are Yankees fans on strike? All the seats behind home plate are empty!!!
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Why don’t we trade Garza and Barney to the Dbacks for Upton, and throw in Vitters too? Barney plays SS well.
Otherwise, Baez is OK with me to include in a trade, but I think Garza+Castro is a lot. I do like the idea of getting Upton. Maybe Shark+(Castro or Baez) would be something I’d consider.
SVBQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Bizarre. Although, New York is an EXCITING city, amirite?
joshQuote Reply
Man. Granderson hit 43 homeruns and still kind of sucked. 2.6 fWAR witht hat kind of power? Oh, I see, he struck out almost 30% of the time.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
But his R+RBI is 208, which is why WAR is a flawed stat
WaLiQuote Reply
I see Nate McLouth was almost legendary.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Girardi said before the game that A-Rod was only benched because of his struggles against right-handed pitching and that he might be used on the bench. So what does he do when they bring in a southpaw to face Ibanez? Let Raul hit, of course (he struck out, btw).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
What are they going to do the next 5 years?
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Fit A-Rod for a cheerleader’s outfit.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This went to hell in a hurry for CC. Unless he can get a ground ball that someone else can handle.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Really expensive platoon hitter?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I guess. It’s really odd.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Maybe if Theo can get Cashman to pay most of his salary, they can do a Soriano-for-ARod swap and then we can solve the Cubs’ 3B problem (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
If Girardi is going to platoon him then that may force Cashman’s hand. Not that the Cubs could get him for Soriano, but you know what I mean.
mb21Quote Reply
Man, fuck the Yankees. All right, Nationals. If you don’t win I’m done for this year.
Stupid Bears and their stupid bye week.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
TI-GERS, TI-GERS, TI-GERS!!!
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Fat. Assholes.
WTF was with that throw Kozma?
joshQuote Reply
All right. This is looking good so far.
joshQuote Reply
Ryan Zimmerman is now my hero.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Just noticed this: this ALDS is the first postseason series (of 6) in which Verlander posted an ERA below 5.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This is fun.
mb21Quote Reply
I see the Walgreens are winnings.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Great bowl, gov’nuh!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Yeah, that’s the one I was talking about. WTF?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Weird shit is allowed to happen to the Cardinals. You don’t question it, you just laugh at it.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I should have posted this on the last thread, but didn’t get to it.
For all of us that are sad that the Cubs didn’t excel there is this:
Shawn Camp #1 in pitcher appearances (MVP, MVP)
Most pitchers used in season: Cubs
Most batters used in season: Cubs
Most HR/9: Cubs (but issued by pitchers, not taken by batters, Sorry)
Most walks: Cubs (see HR/9)
Most unimposing OBP: Cubs (.302)
See? Our team was superlative!
PS: Yay playoff baseball.
SVBQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
What was weird to me was that the announcers said nothing. I thought they had a play on him. No one said anything.
joshQuote Reply
My friend, who is an Orioles fan, says McLouth’s “foul” went off the foul pole. Is this true? I haven’t actually seen the video yet but I imagine that would’ve changed the dynamic of the game.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Brenly is the analyst so he’s probably just so used to shit like that, it didn’t occur to him that it might have been abnormal.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
I highly doubt it hit the pole. Craig Sager actually went and found the guy with the ball and it didn’t have any yellow scuff on it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
BRYCE!!!
Aisle424Quote Reply
Go Nats, etc.
joshQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Clown homer, bro.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
If that had been Castro throwing that, he’d still be ranting about it.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
@ Aisle424:
If I were to try to rationalize it I’d think Kozma was trying to decoy Harper into possibly trying to run home, but that’s unlikely because the Nats’ coach and Harper could track the ball all the way.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Is DeRo even bothering to wear his uniform under that sweater, you think? How the mighty have fallen.
joshQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
If Girardi were the Nats’ manager, he’d have benched him for his poor performance in the first 4 games.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Ah, I didn’t think a ball glancing almost tangentially off the foul pole would scuff. But that does make sense.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Some nice defense by Morse there.
joshQuote Reply
No, I don’t see us doing this. Timing doesn’t work out. Upton’s contract’s only through 2015 and we’re not even estimated to compete till 2015. Wouldn’t be much different than trading off prospects at the deadline to win now. I’m hoping we grab Eaton instead.
Carne HarrisQuote Reply
@ Carne Harris:
That’s kind of how I feel. Regardless of the monetary feasibility, I don’t think either team wants to pay the cost.
joshQuote Reply
a buddy of mine just called me after leaving yankee stadium. he said he literally couldn’t give his extra ticket away. granted, he didn’t try super hard because they were running in to try to make the first pitch, but still.
his theory is that since the new yankee stadium is so expensive, the only people that can go are wall street guys who are apparently still at work at 5 pm on a friday.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
That place sure is nice though. I’ve only driven by but it looks nice from the outside at least (dying laughing)
Also…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
What’s up with putting post-season stats on Gameday instead of regular season (+postseason). That’s utterly useless information.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
It helps you form a small sample size-fueled narrative.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ Walgreens
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
One of the nationals had like a 45.00 ERA. There’s no narrative to that. It’s such a stupid number no one believes it means any thing other than “had a bad outing once.” It just is too extreme. And there are better ways of reminding people of a player’s performance, such as saying it.
joshQuote Reply
One of the announcers today or yesterday said something like “Some people want automatic ball and strike calling. But that’s not baseball. Not baseball that I would watch.”
This is my own narrative, but I can’t help but feel like there’s an anti-intellectual bent to that. Them’s learnins ain’t for sperts!
I find it bothersome. Probably overthinking it/drunk.
joshQuote Reply
I think part of the battle is learning where the boundaries of the strike zone is on a case-by-case basis and then exploiting it, as someone said Justin Verlander did last night against the A’s.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Just got back to my hotel. Fuck yeah, Bryce Harper.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Are the umpires nervous, too? The strike zones have been especially shitty. On one of the early pitches when I was still watching it on TV, a ball that was well outside was called a strike and the announcer said something like “on the corner… I guess.”
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
It seems to vary by the moment.
Human element. Makes the game better when no one can truly define “strike.”
joshQuote Reply
Storen: “I think I’ll try pulling a Marmol.”
joshQuote Reply
Baseball!!
Ugh.
BerseliusQuote Reply
FAIL
joshQuote Reply
To bed. Wake me next spring.
joshQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
The Cardinals just invoked the Spell of Comeback.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Fuck the fucking cardnals. Must be nice stepping up to the plate in the 9th knowing th umps won’t ring you up. Fuckingcornhuskfuckedup.
BottleasmokeQuote Reply
Fucking Cardinals/.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Carne Harris:
It’s important to consider that teams like the Royals and Pirates have been waiting for the right time to acquire impact talent for a couple decades. There is no guarantee the Cubs are going to be able to come close to contending through the minor leagues alone. In fact, it’s a safe bet that won’t work out though it always could. So the question isn’t about when the Cubs are expected to contend with the young talent they have because the answer to that is probably a very long time. The question is about how much better a player makes you now and can you reasonably contend before the contract is over? The Cubs aren’t the Royals and Pirates. They don’t have to sit around waiting for 7 prospects to reach the big leagues and be above average because the Cubs have money to supplement the roster. They should not behave like the Royals and Pirates because they aren’t in the same situation. The Cubs must take advantage of their only advantage at this point: money. They no longer have any advantage in acquiring amateur talent. None. That is gone. They’re left to exploit the one advantage they do have over the rest of the division and that’s money.
I’ll quickly lose interest in being a fan of this team if they feel the need to behave like the PIrates and Royals. It’s unnecessary and there’s a better chance of failure than there is of success.
mb21Quote Reply
Also worth noting: the Nats signed Werth to a big FA deal when they were still lousy. They didn’t wait to become legit contenders.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Yeah, if the Cubs wait to become contenders it may very well work out, but I think there are few teams who have successfully rebuild only through the farm system.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
07-08 Brewers come to mind. Those were some good teams. Braun, Fielder, Sheets, Gallardo, Hardy, Hart, Weeks, then Sabathia via trade by emptying the rest of their farm. I don’t think a single one of those players was acquired via FA.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
They did the same for 2011 as well to get Marcum and Greinke. Helps to have a farm.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
They had an excellent farm system, but they’re also an example of a team that had been rebuilding for over a decade. It took a long time to be successful. The 2003 Marlins are an example, but they’ve done nothing since and have tried rebuilding at least once. The O’s spent close to two decades doing it. The Reds were successful, but they added free agents too.
I’m not denying it’s possible. It is. There are examples, but for ever success there are many more failures.
Prior to the new CBA the Cubs had an advantage in being able to acquire more and better amateur talent than other small market teams. That’s gone. Their one advantage is their ability to spend. Player development has become even for all teams thanks to the new CBA. They’re no more likely to develop a contending team from within than are the Royals or Pirates.
I’m not saying the Cubs should go spend every dime they have and screw themselves over. I’m saying that there are more ways than one to improve a team and there’s no reason whatsoever that a large market team like the Cubs shouldn’t be taking advantage of their wealth by improving through free agency and/or trades.
I don’t want them to sacrifice their farm system in the process, but trading Javier Baez for a known quantity who is almost certainly going to be better than Baez is anything but sacrificing the farm system. I don’t want them trading prospects for rentals like the Brewers did, but Upton has 3 years of a team friendly deal left and even when that’s up, he’ll still be young.
Of course I don’t really know what it would cost to acquire him and that’s important, but if all it takes is Baez/Garza then I can’t think of a single reason to not pull the trigger. It’s not like Upton couldn’t be re-signed and be a part of the next contending team.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I’d like to think that the reason this trade hasn’t happened is because it costs much more than Baez/Garza after Theo/Jed already had the conversation with the D’Backs. The media isn’t privy to every single GM call ever made and this very well could have happened already and been crossed off the list.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
If they had the discussion, I’d agree and that’s fine. I just dislike the idea of waiting until you’re a contender. Could wait forever. If Upton is available and the Cubs can get him at the right price, they absolutely should. If not, no big deal. They can do something about the free agent market and that would only cost money.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Oh yeah, I wasn’t using the Brewers to disagree with you. Just kinda thinking out loud. If the Cubs have to build for half as long as the Brewers did to reach the playoffs I’ll be pissed.
GBTSQuote Reply
All I’m saying is that there’s not one damn guarantee that the Cubs are going to be contending in a few years if they don’t help themselves out by signing free agents. A smart person would bet against it and probably win.
mb21Quote Reply
@ GBTS:
I’ll be pissed off before then. Like this offseason if they don’t go after a big free agent or impact player of some kind. There’s no reason to wait. They have the money and they aren’t the Pirates. If they want to act like the Pirates then they’re going to have as much success as the Pirates.
mb21Quote Reply
So I think I’ll cheer for the Yankees so Ichiro can get a ring.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ mb21:
GREINKE GREINKE GREINKE
@ GBTS:
I can’t argue with you today. Unless the Yankees are eliminated in which case I root for the Giants.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/10/13/sorry-nats-fans-but-history-is-not-written-by-the-losers/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Look, I understand what you’re saying and to an extent, I feel you’re correct. But, the Cubs aren’t the Royals or the Pirates, they’re the Cubs. Only the Yankees and Red Sox have more money and money makes problems go away.
What I’m saying is that Upton probably won’t end up doing the Cubs any good. The swap would be pointless. Trades are about each team filling a need of the other. Arizona is clearly closer to competing than the Cubs, so why give away impact talent?
Also, impact talents will always be availabe, whether by trade or free agency. The Cubs will have the money going forward to make those moves if they want to and as they stockpile prospects, they’ll have the assets to make those types of trades.
The Cubs want to build a young base, but they’ve already said they’ll be players in the free-agent market. Anybody who pretends the Cubs didn’t try to acquire Cespedes before THIS year is kidding themselves. No, they’re not going to break their entire budget on one guy, not right now, but…they’ll be in the mix. Theo has learned a lot about how to approach these situations and better understands what he is doing.
I’m not worried about the Cubs, becase I feel that as the team gets better (and, yes, it will get better), impact talent will be available.
I’m not saying I wouldn’t love to have Upton, but if the price is too great, it would be difficult. Also, with his contract being up right around the time the team could become competitive again, well, you’d have to be really confident that you could extend his contract favorably. And that he’d be better than Castro/Baez.
As Rice Cube mentioned before, trading Baez puts all our eggs in the Villanueva basket, and that would be awful scary as a Cubs fan. On the other hand, if we keep both, and they both pan out, guess what? We’ll have trade bait in a few years. And if only one does, fine, we still have an MLB 3B.
I know I’m ranting, but I’m trying make a point. You don’t come out and say that you’ll re-build through drafting, international spending, and player development (peppered w/ occasional free-agent signings) and then trade away your most promising potential superstar prospect for a player who may never actually help you get to the promised land.
Jed Jam BandQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Oh. My. God.
http://www.natsenquirer.com/2012/10/nationals-fans-receive-world-series-ticket-offer-email-saturday.html
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Jed Jam Band wrote:
How are they going to stockpile prospects? They have no advantage over any other team in doing this. They can only stockpile prospects like every single team in baseball so it’s not really stockpiling prospects.
Also, I don’t see trading Baez as putting all the eggs in the Villanueva basket. I see the Cubs putting all their eggs in one basket if they’re counting on either of Villanueva or Baez. I see the same thing with jackson/Vitters who are both much more likely to fail than succeed. Baseball is brutal to prospects and anyone in the low minors has a significantly higher rate of failure than success. Besides, it’s not like they can’t acquire a 3rd baseman along the way. I don’t expect either of Villanueva or Baez to work out. Odds are against them and if the Cubs are banking on one of those two being at 3rd base for a long time, they’re doing it wrong.
You’re absolutely right when you say the Cubs aren’t the Royals. That’s what I’ve been saying, but they seem hell bent on behaving like the Royals (spend only when you have developed the talent). Well, they have zero advantage in developing talent at this point. Their one advantage is money. They have as good a chance of creating a strong farm system as the A’s, Twins, Royals and Astros do. What the Cubs have that those teams don’t is money.
I don’t think there’s any doubt the Cubs will spend on free agents this year. They have to, but I’m not talking about David DeJesus and Reed Johnson type free agents.
There is no “building the right way.” There is only building the wrong way and that’s if you aren’t working to improve your team in every aspect (player development, free agents, trades).
I feel like Cubs fans have forgotten how stacked their farm system was over a decade ago and how little they got out of it. They had the best farm system in baseball and only contended because they spent money.
All I’m saying is that if the Cubs truly are going to wait until they have a shitload of young talent before they actually go after impact talent, it’s either going to be a long time or the Cubs will get lucky.
I don’t think that happens. Theo has stressed the importance of impact talent and how the organization lacks it. I have no doubt that he’ll go after impact talent when it’s available.
mb21Quote Reply
Maybe they were referring to 2013, since they’re guaranteed a healthy Strasburg.
GBTSQuote Reply
Jed Jam Band wrote:
You can build through all of these while also using players to acquire MLB talent along the way. I think Theo is a pretty good GM so I have no doubt that he’s not boxing himself in as you suggest. He’s far too smart to do that. If a trade comes along that makes the team better, he’ll take it. If he doesn’t, he will probably be let go after 5 years in Chicago just as any other GM would because it’s likely an unsuccessful 5 years. You cannot minimize your ability to improve by limiting the areas in which you can improve.
As I said though, there’s no reason to believe that Theo will do that. He didn’t do that in Boston and I simply don’t believe he’s come to the conclusion that limiting the areas in which you can improve is the best way to build a team. In fact, it goes against every thing he’s said since he became the Cubs GM (he’s said it’s about attacking free agency, trades and player development and he’s right).
mb21Quote Reply
My sister sent me this picture (it also had a PB&J sandwich calling a pumpernickle BL&T sandwich a racist word).
I thought it was a joke.
No. No it’s not. PB&J’s banned in a school in Portland for being racist.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/15/Portland-Oregon-schools-spent-526-901-to-learn-that-pb-j-sandwiches-are-racist
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
WUT.
But I love PB&J 🙁
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Racist.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Well you sir are worse than Hitler.
GBTSQuote Reply
Facts are fun: http://www.politifact.com/oregon/statements/2012/sep/18/education-action-group/portland-schools-spending-half-million-dollars-dec/
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I also do unspeakable things for Klondike bars.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Praise the good lord, I shall never go hungry again!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder
Sorry I didn’t read that article. I shall go without dinner.
WaLiQuote Reply
Anyone else getting horizontal scroll bars in the forum? I’m using Chrome.
GBTSQuote Reply
Using fWAR-based $/WAR values on a averaged-WAR-type metric strikes me as wrong. The differing replacement levels (and possibly other factors?) will make the $/WAR calculation different in each system.
Jason WQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I’m using Chrome and I don’t get them.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
GBTS or anyone else getting paragraphs on one line on the forum: clear your cache or click the reload button. I made some changes the other day and that’s what is causing it, but it’s just your browser’s cache.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Jason W:
You’re right. I was only looking for a ballpark estimate of his value. I’m also more convinced by what Matt Swartz has found regarding dollars per win than the traditional figures used by Tangotiger and Fangraphs. His values are considerably higher and reflect the reality of what teams are paying for.
Good point though.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
UGH FINE
What am I not paying you guys for?
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
FWIW, all I had to do was refresh the page though I could see how some may have to clear their cache. We’ll send you a refund on your subscription.
mb21Quote Reply
Went over to BCB for the first time in ages. Here’s a gem from Yellon:
The Cubs shouldn’t give up on 2013 because if they improve by over 20 games they might get a second wild card. (dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Adding 20 wins is a piece of cake. Just get players who “get it,” play the right way and try hard. Boom. 20 wins.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That’s only one early-2000s Barry Bonds and one Mike Trout. Get’er done.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GBTS:
I surprised he didn’t reference the Orioles as an example of why they should try to win. You never know. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I hear what you’re saying but I think we have to time it right. If Upton’s contract was through 2017, 2018, I’d be interested, but 2015 I don’t think the FO pursues him him for the same reason they didn’t offer Cespedes a 4 year contract like he wanted – his contract would be up about the same time we’d be starting to compete. With the new limitations on spending money on foreign players, I’m all for throwing money around in other ways where the timing works out and we don’t sacrifice the farm system.
Carne HarrisQuote Reply
Cespedes’ contract will be up in 4 years, but he’ll still have 2 years of arbitration. He can’t become a free agent until he has 6 years of MLB service time. From what I’ve heard the A’s just offered a better contract than the Cubs did. It happens.
The problem I have with waiting until the time is right is when will that be? We don’t know for sure it’s 3 years, 4 years or 7 years. In my opinion you take every chance you have to get better now if it’s a good transaction. That’s true whether you’re contending or not. And that is how Theo will conduct business in Chicago. If the Cubs can get Upton for a decent price, they’ll do it. If not, they won’t. If they can sign Greinke to a non-ridiculous contract, they will try. If they can’t, they won’t. That’s how it should be.
However, I refuse to believe that trading someone like Javier Baez is throwing away a long-term plan. If you trade him for Ryan Theriot, yes, you’re making a dumb trade, but we’re talking about Justin Upton here. I have no real idea what it would take to acquire him, but I do believe if all it costs is Baez and Garza that he’ll be a Cub next year. It’s just too good a trade to pass up, which is probably why the Dbacks wouldn’t do it.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Is that true? I thought he chose the A’s contract because he could get to free agency sooner.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
From Cot’s:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
IIRC Cespedes’s contract stipulated that the A’s make him a FA at the end of the deal.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
I’d rather just have one of them so we’re not putting all our eggs in one positional basket. If you can get a good deal involving one of them go for it, the Cubs need help at a lot of other positions than 3b.
That said, as we learned from the Rodrigo injury in 2009 the Cubs need to make sure they have another All-Star backing up every star player on the team or else they fail at roster construction (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Should’ve kept Mark DeRosa.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Fixed
Dick McCheesedoodleQuote Reply
@ Dick McCheesedoodle:
Can always count on this guy for the periodic zinger.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Thanks. I kind of remember that now, but had forgotten about it. It was still reported that the Cubs had a very good offer for him, but he chose the A’s.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Dick McCheesedoodle:
We’ve missed you around these parts, Dick. Where ya been hiding?
mb21Quote Reply
Berselius wrote:
I’d like to keep both, but if one of them can get us a player like Justin Upton then I’m not going to hold up the deal because of it.
It’s important to remember the Cubs had a huge hole at 3B after Santo for a number of reasons. IIRC, Orie was the best prospect they had at the position and he wasn’t really all that great. They signed a bunch of aging veterans and if they worked out for a year, they signed them to 19 year contracts thinking they’d found their solution. Their problem was that they never went after a young and talented 3rd baseman until Hendry acquired Ramirez. They can do that again. It would be nice if they could develop one of course, but players like Justin Upton becoming available (if he would be available) are rare.
mb21Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/alcs-preview-tigers-vs-yankees.html (in which I link to a much better preview than I could have written)
mb21Quote Reply