In 2010 Marlon Byrd had more plate appearances (630) than any other year in his career. He rewarded the Cubs with a .343 wOBA (107 wRC+), nearly 10 runs worth of UZR and was slightly better than average on the bases. His first season with the Cubs was a very good one. He was worth 4.4 fWAR, which was 1.2 more than the second best season in his career. At $4.5 million per win in 2010, Byrd provided the Cubs with $20.2 million in value. He was worth $5 million more than his overall contract in just the first year of the deal.
Byrd’s 2011 season didn’t start out so great. At the end of April he was hitting just .287/.306/.361. Prior to getting hit in the face by a baseball on May 21st, Byrd had over a .900 OPS in May. A lot of people would hesitate to get in the box again. Many would struggle. Some careers have ended after taking hits like Byrd did, but in his first month back Byrd hit .323/.370/.495.
When Byrd was hit by that pitch it was an ugly scene. You’re immediately just hoping he’s OK and then you’re thinking how he may never play baseball again. It was awesome to see Byrd come back with no fear whatsoever and have the month he had in July.
It was all downhill after that though. In his final 50 games Byrd hit .221/.281/.320. Overall, he posted a .315 wOBA (97 wRC+), had a UZR of 2.2, a UBR of 1.7 and his WAR was 2.0 in 150 fewer plate appearances than he had in 2010. 2 WAR is average so despite missing more than a month and the terrible struggles down the stretch, Byrd was still a league average ballplayer.
Byrd has been worth a little more than $30 million and paid less than $10 million. He’ll earn $6.5 million next year and will almost certainly be worth it. Byrd got picked on a lot this season, which was interesting because he was a fan favorite a year ago. Byrd is what he is. He’s not going to take that many walks. We know that. But he will get hit by a lot of pitches. Hopefully no more in the face. He plays solid to above average defense in CF. He makes little money compared to the value he’s provided. He is everything that fans say they want and then of course don’t when they get it.
On July 24th, Byrd celebrated his 1000th career game by having his best game of the season. His WPA was .473.
Comments
Word
MishQuote Reply
Was that the play where it would’ve been a flyout, except for the part where Hunter Pence was 20 feet away from where the ball actually was?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Could be that play. I’d say there was about a 3% chance I was watching it. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17248843
lulz
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I wonder if there wasn’t a lingering psychological effect. Perhaps the first hint of a slump confirmed a fear that he wouldn’t get back to form and turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
/pop-psychologized
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17248843
lulz[/quote]Clutch.
GBTSQuote Reply
RC has a good memory.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]RC has a good memory.[/quote]I tend to remember the mindbogglingly stupid plays. Although I guess the sun was in his eyes so that might not technically be stupid, just unfortunate.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
b, are you doing a WS preview?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I tend to remember the mindbogglingly stupid plays. Although I guess the sun was in his eyes so that might not technically be stupid, just unfortunate.[/quote]I also remember because I posted this one to our Facebook page:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Word[/quote]Hey Mish, I beat the person who is calling you an ass (Team Name: Mish is an Ass) in Fantasy Football for you.
WaLiQuote Reply
The only way the Cards win is if the Braves suffer an epic collapse.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Hey Mish, I beat the person who is calling you an ass (Team Name: Mish is an Ass) in Fantasy Football for you.
MishQuote Reply
E-mail, MB
AisleyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]b, are you doing a WS preview?[/quote]
It could go either way (dying laughing).
I’m planning on doing one but probably won’t have time until much later today.
BerseliusQuote Reply
From Brett (Ace?) at Bleacher Nation:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/10/19/theo-epstein-squeal-watch-waiting-for-president-epstein/
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]From Brett (Ace?) at Bleacher Nation:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/10/19/theo-epstein-squeal-watch-waiting-for-president-epstein/%5B/quote%5DWhy would a big market team want to sign low-level employees to any kind of long-term contract? The fact that they’re low-level means they are probably inexperienced and unproven. It’s not like there’s a magic talent wand that only the Yankees have access to. Are they really going to risk sinking their team financially for the chance at the Royals top pick? Seems like an inefficient way to acquire talent.
Besides that, I think this might be a special case, created by some dissatisfaction with Theo, though they haven’t said that publicly. If the Red Sox were really high on Theo and vice versa, wouldn’t they have promoted him themselves? Also, does this situation qualify as a big market v. small market conflict? It strikes me as two big market teams making a behind-the-scenes deal.
binkyQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]
[/quote]Vulcan dog-pinch?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]From Brett (Ace?) at Bleacher Nation:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/10/19/theo-epstein-squeal-watch-waiting-for-president-epstein/%5B/quote%5DYeah, that is Ace. He switched to using his real name a little while back.
I get the precedent worry, but that seems pretty unrealistic. There aren’t that many front-office guys that are that hard to walk away from. If this was Andrew Friedman and the Rays were playing hardball like this, I’d have no problem walking away to the next candidate. Sure, Friedman MIGHT be the real deal, but the variables are too many. He’s never worked as a GM in a major market, he’s never worked for a team anyone gave a shit about, he’s never assembled a team that has actually won the World Series.
Theo has worked with the egos, he’s done it under as big, if not bigger microscope, and that franchise was just as backwards as the Cubs currently are. No other candidate can say that. He has the gravitas of someone like Pat Gillick, the ability to toss away convention of Billy Beane, and the youth and energy of Friedman.
That is pretty fucking unique and the Red Sox fucking know it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
he’s exaggerating for effect with the whole pr intern thing, obviously. I suspect he’s right about mlb’s leeriness over compensation, though.
GWQuote Reply
i mean, the red sox are staking their claim on ozzie to the fish as precedence.
GWQuote Reply
http://www.tampabay.com/news/localgovernment/tampa-says-it-can-potentially-contribute-100-million-for-a-rays-stadium/1197473
So basically what they are saying is that they may or not have the money. And just because they may have the money, they may or may not give the Rays the money. And if they gave the Rays the money, the Rays will still have to pony up the rest of the money.
So it could go either way.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]http://www.tampabay.com/news/localgovernment/tampa-says-it-can-potentially-contribute-100-million-for-a-rays-stadium/1197473
So basically what they are saying is that they may or not have the money. And just because they may have the money, they may or may not give the Rays the money. And if they gave the Rays the money, the Rays will still have to pony up the rest of the money.
So it could go either way.[/quote]Cool story bro.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]i mean, the red sox are staking their claim on ozzie to the fish as precedence.[/quote]That’s not a bad ploy to use considering that Theo would potentially be much more critical to the Cubs’ success than Ozzie will be for the Marlins.
I guess it’s a bit more complex than just telling the Red Sox they can have McNutt though, otherwise it probably would’ve been done by now…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
yes, but ozzie was not being promoted. and that’s leaving aside all the tampering rumblings.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]yes, but ozzie was not being promoted. and that’s leaving aside all the tampering rumblings.[/quote]That’s a good point.
This is kind of cool, hope Wainwright doesn’t wreck his arm though (dying laughing)
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/10/19/gibson-sutter-and-wainwright-to-throw-out-first-pitch/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ron Swanson quiz: http://www.mentalfloss.com/quiz/quiz.php?q=1333&p=1
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]i mean, the red sox are staking their claim on ozzie to the fish as precedence.[/quote]
And probably Lou for Randy Winn.
CorrectQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]That’s a good point.
This is kind of cool, hope Wainwright doesn’t wreck his arm though (dying laughing)
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/10/19/gibson-sutter-and-wainwright-to-throw-out-first-pitch/%5B/quote%5D
That’s as irresponsible has Z throwing out the first pitch at a softball game! If these kids are on the DL. They shouldn’t be throwing out first pitches!!@!!!!!@11111!!
WaLi22Quote Reply
[quote name=WaLi22]That’s as irresponsible has Z throwing out the first pitch at a softball game! If these kids are on the DL. They shouldn’t be throwing out first pitches!!@!!!!!@11111!![/quote]Yeah, that was the first thing I thought of too, but I sincerely do hope Wainwright doesn’t hurt himself. Baseball has some strange injuries.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Ron Swanson quiz: http://www.mentalfloss.com/quiz/quiz.php?q=1333&p=1%5B/quote%5DI didn’t do too bad (60%) considering everything I know about Ron Swanson I learned on this site (dying laughing) (I know I know I’m missing out)
WaLi22Quote Reply
*sad face*
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oHrygsiNfc[/quote]Is it a game?
Who are the contestants?
……..Also, I think Nipsy Russel might have been confused on White Sox v. Cubs.
Also, they could have used standardized test logic. You could eliminate contestants #1 and #3 based on the fact that they were wearing baseball uniforms in an obvious attempt to mislead.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Also, they could have used standardized test logic. You could eliminate contestants #1 and #3 based on the fact that they were wearing baseball uniforms in an obvious attempt to mislead.[/quote]
yes, that’s the first thing that occurred to me, as well. the flynn effect is real!
GWQuote Reply
Et tu, Eddie?
http://www.nashvillescene.com/pitw/archives/2011/10/19/eddie-george-to-play-julius-caesar-in-nashville-shakespeare-festival-production
MishQuote Reply
I guess senate is trying to get involved in the WS and trying to ban tobacco use from the players. I don’t smoke/chew but know people who do. When people don’t get their cigarettes they get agitated very easily. I could see someone blaming not being able to hit because they needed their nicotine fix and couldn’t get it (dying laughing)
WaLi22Quote Reply
[quote name=WaLi22]I guess senate is trying to get involved in the WS and trying to ban tobacco use from the players. I don’t smoke/chew but know people who do. When people don’t get their cigarettes they get agitated very easily. I could see someone blaming not being able to hit because they needed their nicotine fix and couldn’t get it (dying laughing)[/quote]It doesn’t seem like such a big deal since the Phillies aren’t in. I think Bud has been trying to institute a ban for awhile, but springing it on players the day of is BS.
binkyQuote Reply
ESPNChicago says Cubs may announce the Epstein hire during the WS.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]ESPNChicago says Cubs may announce the Epstein hire during the WS.[/quote]*fingers crossed*
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Why would a big market team want to sign low-level employees to any kind of long-term contract? The fact that they’re low-level means they are probably inexperienced and unproven. It’s not like there’s a magic talent wand that only the Yankees have access to. Are they really going to risk sinking their team financially for the chance at the Royals top pick? Seems like an inefficient way to acquire talent.
Besides that, I think this might be a special case, created by some dissatisfaction with Theo, though they haven’t said that publicly. If the Red Sox were really high on Theo and vice versa, wouldn’t they have promoted him themselves? Also, does this situation qualify as a big market v. small market conflict? It strikes me as two big market teams making a behind-the-scenes deal.[/quote]I tend to agree with this. Large market teams will sign big name GMs. It’s also worth pointing out that small market teams are spending a lot of money on amateur talent to help them contend. I have little doubt the Pirates and Royals could spend good money on a GM.
mb21Quote Reply
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2011/10/19/bernstein-seligs-gag-rule-makes-no-sense/
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi22]I guess senate is trying to get involved in the WS and trying to ban tobacco use from the players. I don’t smoke/chew but know people who do. When people don’t get their cigarettes they get agitated very easily. I could see someone blaming not being able to hit because they needed their nicotine fix and couldn’t get it (dying laughing)[/quote]If they’re going to ban tobacco they should ban nachos and soda.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2011/10/19/bernstein-seligs-gag-rule-makes-no-sense/[/quote]Didn’t RTFA, but I think it does make sense and I kind of like it. Being a Cubs fan and looking for Theo information all the time I’ve kind of forgotten the WS starts. Red Sox fans have had this and then the other nonsense going on too. I agreed with what Hamilton said yesterday: the focus should be on the two teams in the WS (not on the Red Sox collapse).
mb21Quote Reply
I’m going to be watching the WS. If they announce something though, it’s not like we won’t be able to find out soon enough anyway considering the time between pitches and innings.
/ambivalent
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think Bud Selig should also shut down Twitter during the World Series. Too much chatter going on there.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]ESPNChicago says Cubs may announce the Epstein hire during the WS.[/quote]
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]
*sad face*[/quote]I was really hoping for a Brewers/Rangers series. That way, there would have been a first-time winner no matter what.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Didn’t RTFA, but I think it does make sense and I kind of like it. Being a Cubs fan and looking for Theo information all the time I’ve kind of forgotten the WS starts. Red Sox fans have had this and then the other nonsense going on too. I agreed with what Hamilton said yesterday: the focus should be on the two teams in the WS (not on the Red Sox collapse).[/quote]
I don’t really care. I wasn’t going to watch the WS anyway.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Anyway, go Rangers.
ACTQuote Reply
More:
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If they’re going to ban tobacco they should ban nachos and soda.[/quote]I see your point, though players don’t usually eat or drink during games. Unless you count Gatorade.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I see your point, though players don’t usually eat or drink during games. Unless you count the Boston Red Sox.[/quote].
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I see your point, though players don’t usually eat or drink during games. Unless you count Gatorade.[/quote]Or Fat Beckett and Fat Lester.
/rimshot
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=cdw]Or Fat Beckett and Fat Lester.
/rimshot[/quote]Well played, sir.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I see your point, though players don’t usually eat or drink during games. Unless you count Gatorade.[/quote]I was talking about banning them from the stadium. If the goal is to promote some kind of healthy bullshit then don’t just ban tobacco.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Anyway, go Rangers.[/quote]Part of me would like to see the Rangers win and part wants to see the Cardinals win. I don’t really care who wins. I just want to see a good series. Hopefully 7 games.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I don’t really care. I wasn’t going to watch the WS anyway.[/quote]This time of the year I’d watch the WS if it was the Pirates/Royals. I wouldn’t have as much interest in it as some others, but it’s the last real baseball we get until April. That’s probably when the Cubs media will be reporting they have a new GM.
mb21Quote Reply
Good series is a given. Unless the Cubs are playing, in which case, I want them to sweep and have a run differential in the double digits.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Good series is a given. Unless the Cubs are playing, in which case, I want them to sweep and have a run differential in the double digits.[/quote]Yep. A good series with the Cubs would be victories of 20-0 every game. It would be an awesome series if the Cubs scored 10 in the first each game. Then I could really enjoy the games.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]It doesn’t seem like such a big deal since the Phillies aren’t in. I think Bud has been trying to institute a ban for awhile, but springing it on players the day of is BS.[/quote]
Phillies?
I don’t really care either way. I actually thought it was banned once before (dying laughing) I think there is a lot more shit on TV that is worse for “impressionable young minds” than athletes chewing tobacco. But for them to try to do it today is, as you say, BS
WaLi22Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Yep. A good series with the Cubs would be victories of 20-0 every game. It would be an awesome series if the Cubs scored 10 in the first each game. Then I could really enjoy the games.[/quote]I did that a few times in MVP 2005. It was loads of fun.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If they’re going to ban tobacco they should ban
nachos and sodaplayers from checking out chicks’ racks in the crowd.[/quote].WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If they’re going to ban tobacco they should ban running off the field and hiding during thunderstorms.[/quote]
Don’t want to show young baseball players that MLB players are weak and scared.
WaLiQuote Reply
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/10/the_latest_on_t_1.html
mb21Quote Reply
WHY THE FUCKING FUCK IS FUCKFACE KENNY IN ON THIS? WHAT THE FUCK?
Granted Gammons is obviously a Red Sox sock puppet, but why the fuck is the guy Ricketts swears UP AND FUCKING DOWN IS NOT INVOLVED IN BASEBALL DECISIONS apparently involved in maybe the most important baseball decision this org will ever make!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I was talking about banning them from the stadium. If the goal is to promote some kind of healthy bullshit then don’t just ban tobacco.[/quote]No, I got that. I really don’t know why people get worked up about chew, unless the chewers are making a disgusting mess that someone else has to clean up. Because that would be really disgusting. Otherwise, I don’t particularly like watching people chew, but it doesn’t effect me. I got smoking bans (even though I used to smoke) because smoke is an irritant and possibly even carcinogenic to people nearby. Chewing is gross, but so is being morbidly obese.
binkyQuote Reply
It’s all hands on deck right now, MO. They got the Red Sox to come down further than I even expected so I think they’re doing just fine. The idea that Kenney isn’t going to have any say in baseball related maters is nonsense. He’s a source. He’s familiar with the organization.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It’s all hands on deck right now, MO. They got the Red Sox to come down further than I even expected so I think they’re doing just fine. The idea that Kenney isn’t going to have any say in baseball related maters is nonsense. He’s a source. He’s familiar with the organization.[/quote]I wouldn’t let Crane Kenny tell a child how to color in between the lines. I want that stuffed shirt nowhere near this thing.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi22]Phillies?[/quote]The Phillies seem like a disproportionately chew-heavy team to me. Maybe the golf ball sized wad that Raul Ibanez chews is scewing my mental statistics.
binkyQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cubs-trey-mcnutt-would-fill-void-with-red-sox/
mb21Quote Reply
On a related note, an interesting thing just came up on Chicago sports radio: what if part of the holdup is hagglign over what kind of intellectual property, if any, Theo can bring with him? He’s got that CARMINE thing (which he reportedly cannot take with him), his ops manual, etc. I wonder if that stuff belongs to him or to the Red Sox and if that’s part of what the stalemate is about.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]WHY THE FUCKING FUCK IS FUCKFACE KENNY IN ON THIS? WHAT THE FUCK?
Granted Gammons is obviously a Red Sox sock puppet, but why the fuck is the guy Ricketts swears UP AND FUCKING DOWN IS NOT INVOLVED IN BASEBALL DECISIONS apparently involved in maybe the most important baseball decision this org will ever make![/quote]That Gammons quote is really bizarre if true. Why wouldn’t they have Wilkins in on this? Or at least consult him. On the other hand, just because you don’t physically see Wilkins (or someone) there doesn’t mean they aren’t on the phone with him.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I wouldn’t let Crane Kenny tell a child how to color in between the lines. I want that stuffed shirt nowhere near this thing.[/quote]What prospects have the Cubs given away since he’s been around that have turned out to be worth a shit? Was he there when the Cubs traded Nolasco?
mb21Quote Reply
Either way what Gammons said is extremely speculative. It relies on an assumption that the Cubs aren’t consulting their minor league organizers, and that Trey McNutt is the sticking point. I don’t see how he knows either of those things for sure.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]That Gammons quote is really bizarre if true. Why wouldn’t they have Wilkins in on this? Or at least consult him. On the other hand, just because you don’t physically see Wilkins (or someone) there doesn’t mean they aren’t on the phone with him.[/quote]They do. Wilken and Fleita are much more involved than Kenney. Those two are probably more involved than Bush.
mb21Quote Reply
Not sure what you were quoting from, but did they actually say Kenney? We could be having a Who Is The Executive Chairman moment here (dying laughing). Everything we’ve heard says it’s been Ricketts and Randy Bush.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]On a related note, an interesting thing just came up on Chicago sports radio: what if part of the holdup is hagglign over what kind of intellectual property, if any, Theo can bring with him? He’s got that CARMINE thing (which he reportedly cannot take with him), his ops manual, etc. I wonder if that stuff belongs to him or to the Red Sox and if that’s part of what the stalemate is about.[/quote]It’s a possibility though I’d guess anything he created while employed by the Red Sox is their property.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]On a related note, an interesting thing just came up on Chicago sports radio: what if part of the holdup is hagglign over what kind of intellectual property, if any, Theo can bring with him? He’s got that CARMINE thing (which he reportedly cannot take with him), his ops manual, etc. I wonder if that stuff belongs to him or to the Red Sox and if that’s part of what the stalemate is about.[/quote]
Re: Carmine
We can rebuild him. We have the technology.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Not sure what you were quoting from, but did they actually say Kenney? We could be having a Who Is The Executive Chairman moment here (dying laughing). Everything we’ve heard says it’s been Ricketts and Randy Bush.[/quote][quote name=mb21]They do. Wilken and Fleita are much more involved than Kenney. Those two are probably more involved than Bush.[/quote]Yeah, I think Gammons is full of shit or just said the wrong titles or something. Unless Kenny is involved in a legal aspect or something. Wasn’t he a lawyer?
binkyQuote Reply
It’s not like the Red Sox patented building computer systems to analyze baseball players.
BerseliusQuote Reply
i think Gammons was just making shit up.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]It’s not like the Red Sox patented building computer systems to analyze baseball players.[/quote]No, the Cubs will build their own. That’s not an issue and I doubt it’s been one because I would assume it’s owned by the team.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]i think Gammons was just making shit up.[/quote]It could be. He’s a NESN employee, which means he works for Henry. I hope to God he’s making this up.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I think the precedent argument above is invalid, since the retort to any team trying to argue “Well, the Cubs gave up XXX for Theo” would be “Yeah, well, the Cubs are idiots.”
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]On a related note, an interesting thing just came up on Chicago sports radio: what if part of the holdup is hagglign over what kind of intellectual property, if any, Theo can bring with him? He’s got that CARMINE thing (which he reportedly cannot take with him), his ops manual, etc. I wonder if that stuff belongs to him or to the Red Sox and if that’s part of what the stalemate is about.[/quote]I was thinking about this the other day. I’m pretty sure CARMINE was commissioned by Theo on behalf of the Redsox. I’m hoping the software comes to Chicago but if not then Theo will commission a new version CARMINE 2.0 Beta (hopefully with upgraded algorithms, metatags, GUI, etc).
cdwQuote Reply
(dying laughing) late to the party on CARMINE clone
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=cdw](dying laughing) late to the party on CARMINE clone[/quote]I would assume Carmine is just a collection of database queries. I don’t see why the Cubs couldn’t run the same queries on a database they generate and just call it something else. There’s no way the Red Sox would turn over their data to the Cubs.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I would assume Carmine is just a collection of database queries. I don’t see why the Cubs couldn’t run the same queries on a database they generate and just call it something else. There’s no way the Red Sox would turn over their data to the Cubs.[/quote]
It’s gotta be more than that. Formulas, etc. That’s like saying fangraphs is a bunch of database queries.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]It’s gotta be more than that. Formulas, etc. That’s like saying fangraphs is a bunch of database queries.[/quote]Right, and if those formulas are proprietary, then it may not be so easy for Theo to build a clone here.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Right, and if those formulas are proprietary, then it may not be so easy for Theo to build a clone here.[/quote]
It will take some time, but the Cubs have it. It’s not like they are reinventing the wheel here, and there are plenty of smart people who could do it.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]It could be. He’s a NESN employee, which means he works for Henry. I hope to God he’s making this up.[/quote]I don’t care one way or the other. Kenney is the team president and is involved in decisions. If he wasn’t involved he wouldn’t be the team president. Exactly who have the Cubs given up since he became team president that the Cubs regret?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]It will take some time, but the Cubs have it. It’s not like they are reinventing the wheel here, and there are plenty of smart people who could do it.[/quote]It won’t be done on day 1, but it will eventually be done. How much influence did Theo have in Carmine? That’s the question. If he was the brains behind it, it probably won’t take very long.
mb21Quote Reply
A) I don’t know if CARMINE means anything, it is just an homage to the Red Sox being known as Carmines for some reason.
B) The fundamental basis for Carmine is not intellectual property of the Red Sox. It may be more complicated than database queries, but I think Josh is basically on the right track. So there is no reason that couldn’t be re-created and maybe even done better using lessons learned from creating Carmine.
C) I wonder what they’ll call it. Ivy?
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Right, and if those formulas are proprietary, then it may not be so easy for Theo to build a clone here.[/quote]I don’t think you can copyright math formulas.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]It’s gotta be more than that. Formulas, etc. That’s like saying fangraphs is a bunch of database queries.[/quote]It is, though, at heart. Yeah, all right, the exact formulas used in the queries is the real issue, I guess, but how would the Red Sox prove that Theo was or wasn’t using those formulas? Actually, this could well be the heart of the stalemate.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t think you can copyright math formulas.[/quote]No, but it’s possible Theo doesn’t know what they were. It really depends on his involvement. Regardless of that though, the Cubs will build another one. There are plenty of smart people around as berselius said. It’s just a matter of how quickly it gets done.
mb21Quote Reply
You guys are definitely giving Theo too much credit here. I think he basically just said to his underlings – go create this thing and I will use it. He has too much other shit to do to worry about the details. He just has to do the same thing here in Chi. It isn’t rocket science. The big step is that the Cubs would have a GM that would want this in the first place, not ownership of the coefficients.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’ve worked for three different places that used proprietary event planning software (Timelines, workflows, budget creation, yada yada). They are all basically the same except the graphics are different and they used slightly different verbiage.
Keynote Speaker in one = Key Opinion Leader (KOL) in another = Event Moderator in another. But it was all the same shit and they all did the same thing.
At this point, designing a sabermetric analysis to mesh with scouting reports with some programmed intelligence isn’t like inventing a time machine. The Cubs are practically the only ones who don’t have SOMETHING like this already in place. Hell, Hoyer could probably come over and start building something.
Obviously, the Red Sox aren’t going to want to make it that easy on the Cubs, but at the end of the day they might as well be saying OPS is their intellectual property.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]You guys are definitely giving Theo too much credit here. I think he basically just said to his underlings – go create this thing and I will use it. He has too much other shit to do to worry about the details. He just has to do the same thing here in Chi. It isn’t rocket science. The big step is that the Cubs would have a GM that would want this in the first place, not ownership of the coefficients.[/quote]This is my understand of the situation. And if he can’t bring those underlings along he could always contract out the design of algorithms and coding. Assuming he doesn’t want Ari Kaplans developmentally challenge CARMTARD.
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]You guys are definitely giving Theo too much credit here. I think he basically just said to his underlings – go create this thing and I will use it. He has too much other shit to do to worry about the details. He just has to do the same thing here in Chi. It isn’t rocket science. The big step is that the Cubs would have a GM that would want this in the first place, not ownership of the coefficients.[/quote]Yeah, his training is in law, not math. That’s a good point. I wonder how complex the math really is. Are they applying some of the ideas of like financial math/actuarial type analysis. Surely if were just their version of fangraphs, then it wouldn’t be such a big deal.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]No, but it’s possible Theo doesn’t know what they were. It really depends on his involvement. Regardless of that though, the Cubs will build another one. There are plenty of smart people around as berselius said. It’s just a matter of how quickly it gets done.[/quote]Didn’t he basically invent the damn thing himself using his own mathematical models? Someone else did the programming, but I’ll bet my life at least most of the evaluation formulations were being run by him on Excel spreadsheets long before Carmine existed.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’ve worked for three different places that used proprietary event planning software (Timelines, workflows, budget creation, yada yada). They are all basically the same except the graphics are different and they used slightly different verbiage.
Keynote Speaker in one = Key Opinion Leader (KOL) in another = Event Moderator in another. But it was all the same shit and they all did the same thing.
At this point, designing a sabermetric analysis to mesh with scouting reports with some programmed intelligence isn’t like inventing a time machine. The Cubs are practically the only ones who don’t have SOMETHING like this already in place. Hell, Hoyer could probably come over and start building something.
Obviously, the Red Sox aren’t going to want to make it that easy on the Cubs, but at the end of the day they might as well be saying OPS is their intellectual property.[/quote]That was my point. Just change the front end. You can copyright code, so the Red Sox would have a hard time proving what was in the back end anyway.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I wonder what they’ll call it. Ivy?[/quote]I would call it AL 9000. And instead of having a glowing red eye and calm, soothing voice as it plots to kill its masters, AL 9000 would have a glowing bologna sandwich and a shrill, nasally voice as it tries to lower bleacher prices and figure out who owns the team.
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Didn’t he basically invent the damn thing himself using his own mathematical models? Someone else did the programming, but I’ll bet my life at least most of the evaluation formulations were being run by him on Excel spreadsheets long before Carmine existed.[/quote]
No idea, but even if it’s that true I’m sure it evolved to be far more than that in the time since he became GM.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]I would call it AL 9000. And instead of having a glowing red eye and calm, soothing voice as it plots to kill its masters, AL 9000 would have a glowing bologna sandwich and a shrill, nasally voice as it tries to lower bleacher prices and figure out who owns the team.[/quote]
(dying laughing), asking the computer who owns the team would case a fatal segmentation fault.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]You guys are definitely giving Theo too much credit here. I think he basically just said to his underlings – go create this thing and I will use it. He has too much other shit to do to worry about the details. He just has to do the same thing here in Chi. It isn’t rocket science. The big step is that the Cubs would have a GM that would want this in the first place, not ownership of the coefficients.[/quote]I would assume Tippett was behind most of the formulas.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t care one way or the other. Kenney is the team president and is involved in decisions. If he wasn’t involved he wouldn’t be the team president. Exactly who have the Cubs given up since he became team president that the Cubs regret?[/quote]You’re implying a tenuous, at best, causal chain here.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]You guys are definitely giving Theo too much credit here. I think he basically just said to his underlings – go create this thing and I will use it. He has too much other shit to do to worry about the details. He just has to do the same thing here in Chi. It isn’t rocket science. The big step is that the Cubs would have a GM that would want this in the first place, not ownership of the coefficients.[/quote]Good point.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Yeah, his training is in law, not math. That’s a good point. I wonder how complex the math really is. Are they applying some of the ideas of like financial math/actuarial type analysis. Surely if were just their version of fangraphs, then it wouldn’t be such a big deal.[/quote]
It’s my understanding that the Sox have an advanced defensive metric and I think Theo even hinted at that when he bashed UZR awhile back. Offensive numbers are relatively simple. Ari Kaplan couldn’t fuck those up. Pitching is too. Same with baserunning. Defense isn’t. Combining scouting information is where it gets most difficult.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I would assume Tippett was behind most of the formulas.[/quote]Perhaps. He’s one of the people that are rumored to be off-limits to Theo, right?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
But Theo, they are your BEST CUSTOMERS
AL 9000Quote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]I would call it AL 9000. And instead of having a glowing red eye and calm, soothing voice as it plots to kill its masters, AL 9000 would have a glowing bologna sandwich and a shrill, nasally voice as it tries to lower bleacher prices and figure out who owns the team.[/quote]
Aisle424Quote Reply
It’s my impression from what I’ve heard of Theo, that this is what he is extremely good at, i.e. the interpretation and application of the data CARMINE generates.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It’s my understanding that the Sox have an advanced defensive metric and I think Theo even hinted at that when he bashed UZR awhile back. Offensive numbers are relatively simple. Ari Kaplan couldn’t fuck those up. Pitching is too. Same with baserunning. Defense isn’t. Combining scouting information is where it gets most difficult.[/quote]Right, the only other complexity I could imagine is a more advanced regression or performance predictor. Something more along the lines of what those guys use who work the stock market. Compiling lots of historical data to try to look for general trends, maybe, that sort of thing.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]You’re implying a tenuous, at best, causal chain here.[/quote]I’m just saying that of all the input he’s had, what have they traded away that we regret? I’m not saying that’s because of him. I’m just saying that he’s been a big part of the decision making that has resulted in the Cubs trading zero prospects away that we regret. Maybe it’s all luck. I don’t know, but if there’s one thing I trust the Cubs at, it’s making trades. If/when Theo is hired I expect Kenney to have no input except when asked.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]Right, the only other complexity I could imagine is a more advanced regression or performance predictor. Something more along the lines of what those guys use who work the stock market. Compiling lots of historical data to try to look for general trends, maybe, that sort of thing.[/quote]Since that SI Moneyball article painted Theo as viewing injuries/physological state as being causes of underperformance I’m guessing there will be an alogrithm looking at factors which make a pitcher prone to injury or a person prone to mental illness/psychological disfunction. This makes the investigation of Carl Crawford a little more interesting in my eyes.
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=cdw]Since that SI Moneyball article painted Theo as viewing injuries/physological state as being causes of underperformance I’m guessing there will be an alogrithm looking at factors which make a pitcher prone to injury or a person prone to mental illness/psychological disfunction. This makes the investigation of Carl Crawford a little more interesting in my eyes.[/quote]I’d be interested to know what his thought process was on Crawford as well, of if that was something against his best judgement or something.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]
[/quote](dying laughing) somebody has hacked my brain! From the past!
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
Perhaps instituting the genetic testing used by EPL teams to look for genes which cause people to be prone to injury. Wish I had that article and references. To this end there is a wealth of information that correlates past behavior and biomarkers to mental illness.
A non-routine physical. Not saying this happens but it is a logical dystopian progression.
EDIT: I’m pretty sure this would violate some privacy laws and disability acts.
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Perhaps. He’s one of the people that are rumored to be off-limits to Theo, right?[/quote]I don’t think he’s ever come up, but I would assume so.
mb21Quote Reply
Chicago sports radio says Gammons is reporting that the Epstein deal could get done today, and announced Friday.
I think Peter Gammons needs to make up his mind about which story he wants to be true.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I think Gammons has dementia. Seriously. If that’s true, that’s too bad. That sucks. I’m sure everyone here has known someone who has died a long and miserable death because of it.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Chicago sports radio says Gammons is reporting that the Epstein deal could get done today, and announced Friday.
I think Peter Gammons needs to make up his mind about which story he wants to be true.[/quote]
Gammons later reported via twitter
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BerseliusQuote Reply
I’ve got it sussed: Peter Gammons is The Guy In the Purple Shirt
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I don’t care what anyone says, Gammons has not been the same since the stroke. I don’t think anyone can realistically argue that isn’t true.
he may still be capable, but this is not the same Peter Gammons who made a name for himself in this business.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Also, Kaplan has once again been the King of Chicago sports reporters on this story:
http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/news/Kaplan-Significant-progress-in-Theo-talk?blockID=579992&feedID=8487
Aisle424Quote Reply
Nobody else is even close to having original sources that weren’t already mentioned in a Boston writers’ story.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Nobody else is even close to having original sources that weren’t already mentioned in a Boston writers’ story.[/quote]The absolute silence on the part of the Cubs beat about any FO goings-on this year rings to my ear as vindication of much of what we’ve said about them here.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Gammons comment was obviously bullshit, but it’s nice to see someone put it straight. There was no chance whatsoever that Fleita and Wilken weren’t involved. They’re the go-to guys for Ricketts right now. Wouldn’t even surprise me to learn that the first two phone calls Ricketts makes after receiving an offer is to those two.
mb21Quote Reply
It’s amazing to me that Kaplan has had so much more information to provide than all of the other beat writers combined. He’s probably had twice as much as the others combined. Great job by Kaplan here.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Great job by Kaplan here by comparison to the rest of the substandard Chicago sports writers..[/quote].
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It’s amazing to me that Kaplan has had so much more information to provide than all of the other beat writers combined. He’s probably had twice as much as the others combined. Great job by Kaplan here.[/quote]He seems to be the only guy with a real source. If Ryan Dempster can’t tell them, it seems like the beat guys don’t know.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]He seems to be the only guy with a real source. If Ryan Dempster can’t tell them, it seems like the beat guys don’t know.[/quote]Kaplan actually has sources and knows a few guys. That’s really what good reporting boils down to. His sources are panning out this time, unlike when he was 100% sure that Joe Girardi was going to be the next Cubs manager.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Kaplan actually has sources and knows a few guys. That’s really what good reporting boils down to. His sources are panning out this time, unlike when he was 100% sure that Joe Girardi was going to be the next Cubs manager.[/quote]True. He nailed the Hendry firing, and he’s been the only one with non-NESN info in the Epstein deal. Seems like he’s cultivated a decent source in the FO.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/articles/major-league-baseball/rangers-cardinals-game-1-open-thread.html
mb21Quote Reply