Over the course of the offseason we've published the various projections for players and have been calculating an average with them. One thing we like to talk about is whether or not a player is going to beat his projections, or underperform them. Over the course of the season we tend to say we thought whatever was happening at the time. If player A is performing above expectations we'll find reasons to think we believed it would happen. The truth is it's anybody's guess. The projections are merely a baseline. It essentially tells us that there's a 50% chance he'll be better and a 50% chance he'll be worse.
GW mentioned awhile back that we should have a contest where people choose over or under for the players. It's a great idea and today we're starting the contest. We wanted to stick with the primary players plus a couple others, but doing so could create a situation in which there were multiple winners. We think you're all winners, but for this contest we want only one winner. Because of that, there's an over/under choice for 3 categories. The 3 for position players is plate appearances, wOBA and WAR. For pitchers it's innings pitched, FIP and WAR. All playing time projections are the Obstructed View playing time projections.
The first two for each category is easy to get. We know exaclty how many times someone bats (or pitches) and thanks to Fangraphs we know what their wOBA or FIP is. WAR is the tricky part. There's fWAR and rWAR that are commonly used. Most of the time these two are similar enough, but some times there's a big enough difference that choosing one of them could cause issues. So what we're doing is taking an average of rWAR and fWAR. If someone finishes the season with 1 rWAR and 2 fWAR, we're using 1.5 WAR and we'll compare that to the projection. If there's a situation where we have a player with an fWAR of 1.7 and rWAR of 1.8, the average of that 1.75. We're rounding to the nearest tenth so for our purposes, that player will have produced 1.8 WAR. Also, this is for the entire season so even if a player is traded, we look at his total for all teams at the end of the season.
If someone was projected to bat 400 times and they batted exaclty that many times, for the purposes of this survey will consider that to be under the projection. The same is true for wOBA, FIP and WAR. To be right in predicting over the player has to be over his projection. Simple enough.
There's a tiebreaker at the end of the survey. Enter the number of runs you think the Cubs will score in 2012.
All the questions are mandatory, but it should not take much time to fill it out. We also need your username (or name if you aren't a member of Obstructed View) and your email.
The winner will get an Obstructed View t-shirt and a copy of the 2013 The Hardball Times Annual. Those are usually released sometime in November. If the winner would prefer the Bill James Handbook, that can be arranged too. The person who comes in 2nd place gets an autograph from Aisle 424 and Berselius. For an extra $10 you can also get autographs from And Counting and mb21. 3rd place winner gets a free subscription to Obstructed View.
There are two things of importance to note: the projection for Jeff Samardzija is the mean PECOTA projection scaled to 122 innings pitched. PECOTA projected him as a starter and instead of fudging the other numbers, which were mostly as a reliever, we went with PECOTA. Because of this, Samardzija's end of season WAR will be from Baseball Prospectus and not the average of fWAR and rWAR. Also, for pitchers over/under, if a pitcher is projected to have a 4.00 FIP, over means higher than 4 (not better than 4).
You have until Thursday, April 12th to fill it out. If injuries take place after others have voted, those are thrown out so there's no advantage to waiting on submitting your votes. I've embedded the survey below and if you'd prefer you can access it directly by clicking this link.
Comments
Hobbiton has been angered!
http://twitter.com/#!/PWSullivan/status/186173697038614529
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2012-organizational-rankings-14-chicago-cubs/
BerseliusQuote Reply
#14ORg
BerseliusQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
(dying laughing) at fans in the comments of that fangraphs piece wishing they could tear down Yankee Stadium and replace it with a dumpy stadium like Wrigley
BerseliusQuote Reply
I have filled out your survey and expect to do about as well as I did in the NCAA challenge.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Who wrote that?
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
That’s in the fg post I linked above, written by Brad
BerseliusQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
The same Ramirez and Fukudome that were a part of this team in recent years? I am very confused. Seriously. I could see in some world where they are an improvement. I’m not sure it’s a world that has 7 billion human beings, but I could see it. But considerable improvement? What am I missing?
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
From the context, I think he was just talking about defense.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Darwin Barney may be a better fielder. It’s entirely possible, but better fielder doesn’t mean better overall player.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Oh, OK. That makes more sense.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Darwin Barney may be the better fielder, but swapping the two of them might be a moot point given positional adjustments. He may be a better shortstop than Castro, but he’s also an excellent defensive 2b.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Still, there’s no way Darwin Barney should take over SS. Unless Barney is as transformed as F7, it’s a ridiculous idea.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Great point. So Barney is a .2 WAR player at 2b or SS. If this organization makes that swap then I give up. I’ve been one of Castro’s biggest critics when it comes to his defense, but if you’re going to replace Castro at SS you don’t do it with Barney. Not now. Not tomorrow and not anytime while I’m alive. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
If Votto stays healthy, could that deal for the Reds end up being a bargain? He’s projected on fangraphs for something like 7.5 WAR. If he goes regresses .5 WAR per season, at $5M/Win that’s $285M. If the market is better, say $5.5 of $6 like we were discussing, then I’d say the reds did okay. And Votto is 29, so he might hold steady for 2-3 seasons, even.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
He was talking about defense. Of course, he also said that Alfonso had good defense (look at his UZR!), so his piece wasn’t completely un-ridiculous.
ACTQuote Reply
Ridiculously pie-in-the-sky projections: finished. This is the year.
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Yeah, that whole paragraph was…odd.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ josh:
delicious, delicious pie
BerseliusQuote Reply
Here’s Sori’s DRS for the last 3 years:
-14
-14
-9
His FRAA:
-0.2
-6.4
-7.9
And, of course, there’s that good plays/bad plays thing that rated him as a lousy fielder: http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_impact_of_good_plays_and_misplays/
I think Brad/UZR is just wrong here.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Yeah, my lying eyes and all those non-UZR metrics summarize why I’m not a big fan of UZR.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Me too, but Fangraphs gotta Fangraphs. Just like how BP only ever cited its own valuation stats despite their flaws and the fact that no one else used them. Still mostly true over there.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
MGL is why I’m not a big fan of UZR (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Is he a proponent or the inventor?
I sort of like how they divide the field up into zones and try to track plays but the fact that it fluctuates so much and seems to inflate position player WAR annoys me. Not that I’m an expert but I feel it’s weighted too much.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Then again, maybe Sori really did save 33.2 runs in 2007.
ACTQuote Reply
Citizens of Kansas! What is a Jayhawk?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Soriano’s sole saving grace on defense has been his arm. For a couple years, teams challenged it and that boosted his numbers. They still do occasionally, and that always bumps him. Perhaps the problem with UZR is that outfield assists are weighted too heavily?
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Was 2007 the year he had that crazy run of like a week or two where he threw out some ridiculous number of players trying to run on him. It was like 5 or so. If consider a smallish sample size for a single season and perhaps an unfair weighting on that particular skill, you could see a weirdly inflated number. But If UZR should be accurate with large enough sample size, then it has him as an overall 2.7. I can almost believe that, if throwing out runners counts for a lot. He makes most of the routine plays. He does occasionally bungle a play, and I think his range, for a left fielder, is probably about average if not slightly better.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Are you a designer of complex defense evaluation systems? If not, never speak of my system, ever.
MGLQuote Reply
@ josh:
FG actually shows the breakdown (arm, range, errors): http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=847&position=2B/OF#fieldingadvanced
His rating hasn’t been helped much if at all by his arm in the last 3 years.
ACTQuote Reply
Speaking of FG fielding stats, I have no idea what rGFP is. It doesn’t help that the FG glossary is worthless.
ACTQuote Reply
OK, Google search says it’s “good fielding plays.”
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
The Range rating is at least consistent with what we know about his leg health. But that +/- breakdown you showed perhaps illustrates some of the complexities of defense that aren’t being captured by a simple arm/range/error model. That’s the problem with defense, is that it’s really hard to pin down. My general impression of Soriano though, is that he’s not great, but not as terrible as people make him out to be. The last couple years having not much help from his arm could be a consequence of people no longer challenging him, too. Just a thought, though, I’m skeptical of UZR too. It seems too generous.
joshQuote Reply
Kansas staying close-ish but I fear Kentucky is too good.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Should the Cubs make a run at Greinke next off-season, if the Brewers don’t extend him during the season?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I don’t know about anyone else, but I certainly would…same with Cole Hamels, depending on where they are in the “build” plan.
I’m guessing that also means they are more likely to extend Garza if they ratchet up the timetable..
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yup…Kansas is in trouble.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Right, to me I guess it’s a question of whether Zack will still be good 2-3 years after you sign him, considering he’s going to be 29 at the end of the year. It may come down to how well he does this season, honestly. But if he maintains his performance level, he’s going to fetch a high price.
I could see the Cubs building up minor league depth in the long run while also trying to compete in the short term. I know there’s more than one way to compete, but the FO seems to really be interested in pitching depth, so I could see them making a run at a guy like Greinke.
joshQuote Reply
*Gasp* Is the best team in the country actually going to win the tournament.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ josh:
If the CBA is going to dilute the available free agent pool due to everyone extending their own homegrown guys, then it makes sense to me to go after the available elite pitching and hope that pitching alone will allow the Cubs to stay close in enough games to steal a certain number of wins. That’s basically what the Giants did over the past couple years while riding a few hot performances from surprise guys. It just might work.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
…unless Calipari’s team forgets how to shoot free throws again.
/shades of 2008
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
I don’t know what the surprise is. The best team in the country always wins the tournament, by default. Just like how the best team always wins the MLB playoffs
/moran
BerseliusQuote Reply
Kentucky is too big, too long, and too fast for Kansas. They have to stop trying to run with Kentucky.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
That second foul on Davis is big. Now is the time for Kansas to make a run.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
That’s what she said.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I keep thinking about the Giants too. If they can do it with mostly pitching, why the hell couldn’t the Cubs. Of course, it won’t be the same because Lincecum was homegrown, but still.
joshQuote Reply
If they have all that money lying around and no draft picks or amateur free agents to spend it on they might as well buy a couple expensive free agents and take the business tax break (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’m Irish. She’s never said that.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
11 missed layups, 2 missed dunks…*sigh*
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Too many big mistakes from Kansas.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
SEC owns all the titles.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
This is Bubbs feeling after last night when Lesnar returned
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
What about his brother Ransel, and the dark twins that live just out of time, where the darkness is alive and nightmares are real?
joshQuote Reply
jtsunami wins a free one year subscription to OV! Wooooooooooooooooooo
jtsunamiQuote Reply
jtsunamiQuote Reply
@ jtsunami:
Here’s your prize (link only visible to you): http://feeds.feedburner.com/obstructedview/iSww
mb21Quote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
Face —–> palm
http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/daily-facepalm-4-3-12.html
BerseliusQuote Reply