The Cubs officially announced the Jameson Taillon signing today:
It seems Taillon had a Zoom session with the beat folks that was also open to fans, so there’s a snippet here:
Taillon had a lot of nice things to say about his experience during the recruiting process, the excitement he felt with being able to work with the Cubs Pitch Lab and playing with the current Cubs and new Cub Dansby Swanson (I guess that’s unofficially official until they add Dansby to the roster), and just seems like he’s ready to have a good time, so I guess we should at least get some enjoyment out of this!
So I say it’s Christmas, Theo, it’s the time of miracles, so be of good cheer… and call me when you hit the last lock.
Comments
Saving this for when I set up the new episode later this week, but I’d enjoy working with you jabronis in the new year so keep in touch
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I remember when Taillon was coming up with the Pirates and how great he could be. Hopefully the Cubs are able to tap into some of that potential. Not that he’s not been good, but he hasn’t been as good as a lot of the early reports indicated he could be. Here’s to hoping.
dmick89Quote Reply
The preliminary ZIPS is not so kind to the 2023 Cubs as currently constructed
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I should probably say that most of the positions are fairly solid but there don’t appear to be many stars per se pending some more signings or breakouts.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I wouldn’t hate the idea of Conforto. There would still be a lot of volatility on the roster, but that’s also probably a benefit given where the Cubs are in the competitive cycle.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
False because Mervis is going to hit eleventy billion HR.
PerkinsQuote Reply
At first glance, those don’t look like terrible projections.
andcountingQuote Reply
Really feels like a low-floor rotation. They could be legitimately eight starters deep and be able to whether a few injuries here or there. It’s not the 90s Braves or anything, but it’s not terrible.
andcountingQuote Reply
That’s the spirit, jabronis!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yeah, I’m just estimating off those numbers and it looks like an ~88-win projection. While it’s not mind-blowing, it could be enough to keep them in contention until the trade deadline when they could build a bit more.
andcountingQuote Reply
Perkins,
andcounting,
That seems like an excessive amount of positivity for this website
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I can absolutely temper that by saying it meets my bare minimum standard for attempting to compete for postseason play (dying laughing).
andcountingQuote Reply
Gentlemen, this calls for an upgrade
https://twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/1605020160988848128?t=nel8-FhbjHFgGy2fKPwmrg&s=19
Ewww.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Agreed – I thought the top guys would be 0.5-1 WAR lower in the projections, which always tend to be (rightly) pessimistic on everyone.
berseliusQuote Reply
Hey how about that 📦🍔
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Hopefully we get an array of artisan hamburgers and not a sweaty cardboard box full of expired ground beef.
berseliusQuote Reply
If Justin Steele is mostly the pitcher he was from June onward and throws more innings, there’s some definite upside there.
PerkinsQuote Reply
andcounting,
I counted off that chart before he posts the FG article sometime today and that’s 35.8 WAR tacked onto the replacement level of say 47.6 (which I saw on the Google and Google is always right), that’s slightly over 83 wins, which at least gives them hope, so yay!
Perkins,
There’s always upside with Pitch Lab(TM)!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
It used to be calculated off a .320 winning percentage, ~52. Bref and Fangraphs went to a unified scale back in 2013 and dropped it to .292 or whatever, I was just using the old scale.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
My initial reaction of “meh” was probably because the Cubs don’t have a single 5-WAR guy, but perhaps they get some mad breakouts and then we really can resurrect the Hope Monster
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I’m completely fine with WAR expectations that are more evenly distributed. For comparison, last year’s ZiPS projections were about 5 wins lower when they came out (prior to the addition of Suzuki) and this year’s projections are also about 1 WAR higher than last year’s actual totals. I don’t expect a ton of additions or major improvements before opening day, but the expectations, especially regarding the rotation and up-the-middle defense should be much higher than last year.
But that’s saying so unbearably little, I regret even typing it. (dying laughing)
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Methinks I would expect significantly more 1-run wins due to the defense holding serve while the offense ekes out just enough run(s), even more eternal optimism has its bounds (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This would obviously have helped, but the Cubs are committed to their process, so ace Marcus Stroman it is.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
I had been a proponent of this guy for a while and I hope the Cubs can make something like this happen (regardless of handedness or position, but a guy with power who can play multiple positions is probably good)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Says every sportswriter to themselves every week in the offseason.
BVSQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
What’s the narrative for why he sucked for so long? Prior to last season he was a career sub-replacement player.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I know not, I guess it’s one of those “baseball” things where sometimes something clicks and stays on for a while and you hope the club doesn’t miss if they do sign him. Most of the attention appears to be on Conforto/Mancini anyway so this probably doesn’t happen.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I think I’m more drawn to the power potential and the defensive versatility than anything else, Conforto is probably just a corner guy now and those are spoken for, plus he likely wouldn’t deal with CF and I know not whether he can stand at 1B. Mancini is basically the same except he actually has stood at 1B and seems capable.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
Rice Cube,
Rice Cube,
If the Cubs don’t mind blowing past the luxury tax, it is conceivable they can sign all three and just figure it out later since they didn’t sign the other big bats (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Like it clicked for Frank Schwindel?
andcountingQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I know you’re kidding, but the Cubs are also squeezed on the 40-man. I don’t think they even have room for Smyly.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Hey hey, to be fair he only played the one position poorly and now he’s about to be a Japanese megastar like former Cubs legend Bryan Lahair
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
As I wrote like 15 posts ago, there are a load of guys they can remove from the roster that nobody would blink at so I think they’ll be fine
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Quick read on spending so far this offseason
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-four-ways-the-competitive-balance-tax-has-impacted-baseballs-offseason/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
They’re not going to start DFA-ing people left and right so they can go bobbing for #8 hitters.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
They only need a couple spots and it really depends on how much you think you value keeping Mark Leiter Jr or Manny Rodriguez, plus whether you like our current #8 hitters enough that you don’t mind that the new #8 hitters will push them to #9 or the bench (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Fangraphs ZIPS article is out –> https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
LMFAO https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2022/12/20/23518527/chiefsaholic-chiefs-superfan-bank-robbery-mask
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
The #9 hitter is either going to catch or pitch, (dying laughing). My point is they already have to move someone to make room for Smyly (if they really are adding him). I don’t think they’re going to add three more or even two more bats (plus a catcher, whatever route they add one) via free agency. Even if we knew they were intent on addressing 1B and 3B (I’m not convinced they have plans to upgrade either), I’d be shocked if they signed three more non-catcher bats.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
The Padres just signed the corpse of Matt Carpenter for $12MM so that’s not an option anymore
Rice CubeQuote Reply
And then you look at the Astros and wonder what might have been, minus the trash cans of course
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
This contract is wack and probably less than what a Mancini/Conforto/Drury would cost, but I don’t think any of them make as much as Justin Turner will –> https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/padres-to-sign-matt-carpenter.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Correa intro conference in SF was postponed…hmm!
Apparently to wait for test results, but wonder what kind of test? COVID? PEDs?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
The reason I asked about the narrative with Drury is that the Cubs are a half dozen narratives away from a great season. Did Contreras really hurt the pitching staff? Could Hendricks rebound with a proficient receiver behind the plate? Can Bellinger find his swing? Will Mervis be a legit MLB power hitter? Will the defense up the middle be a difference maker? Will the Cubs proliferation of nonpower pitchers exploit the pitch clock? Are the Cubs a year ahead of the curve on strategic base stealing? Did Dansby Swanson’s mental health struggles cause him to be underrated and could his progress lead to better-than-expected improvements at the plate? Will Morel have a sophomore slump or surge? Is there a prospect we aren’t considering who will click in ‘23? Is Wesneski as good as he looked last year? Will Suzuki be as effective as it seems like his skill set suggests he should be?
All these stories (or none of them) could break in the Cubs’ favor and lead to a better first half than the numbers suggest. Drury would be just one more. If there’s a reason to explain why he had a breakout year last season (like if he’s been held back by injuries or . . . Detroit or something) it would be interesting.
I just look at the way this team is built and wonder if there might not be a realistic path to this group of players performing like we hope instead of how we expect. The hard data isn’t there, but there are narratives that make it plausible. Ish.
andcountingQuote Reply
It could go either way.
BVSQuote Reply
Fixed
BVSQuote Reply
andcounting,
This would make a good blog post, thanks for the inspiration
BVS,
Check your email, jabroni
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I guess I’d prefer Mancini, Drury, Conforto in that order. Probably Mancini on a 2 yr contract for 17M.
If Conforto is any good he’ll be gone after 2023, or way more expensive. We’ve already got his contract on the team w Bellinger. If he was cheap in year 1, then OK, but seems like we’ve got some OF on the way this year if needed (Davis).
I think 1B is less covered than other positions except C. So my pref for Mancini.
Drury seems like a one hit wonder from last year. He’s attractive conceptually if his improvement keeps up. But the likelihood he is ~= Mastrobuoni/McKinstrey/Bote seems pretty high. (Or worse, LeHair as RC mentioned.)
BVSQuote Reply
My sources say it’s the Which Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle Are You? test, and it initially came back Michelangelo, but SF needed a Donatello to complete their infield.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
But Michelangelo is a party dude
Rice CubeQuote Reply
https://apnews.com/article/mlb-sports-los-angeles-angels-houston-astros-dodgers-7eabd5d9a1980cb33a1c754938c41a53
AP says it is something related to his physical. #doesnotknowhowtouseabostaff
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Dang, now he’s only gonna be paid $300MM
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
What if he’s cool, but rude?
berseliusQuote Reply
I’m gonna take a stab at trying to answer some of these questions in a new post unless you wish to deal with it (I won’t be able to get to it until later)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
berselius,
Of course this presupposes that the Giants have a current Leonardo to lead
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
ALTERNATIVELY he now has to sign a pillow contract so go Cubs (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Yeah, I won’t have time to write it up anytime soon, so it’s all yours.
andcountingQuote Reply
It’s pretty wild that they scheduled a press conference with physical stuff still pending. I mean, the Yankees just announced the Judge signing today, and that news was, what, one or two weeks older than Correa-to-Giants?
andcountingQuote Reply
Time to swoop in and get Correa for 99 cents on the dollar.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Maybe the Cubs end up with two of the shortstops after all? (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
True, Alcides Escobar *is* still available after all.
berseliusQuote Reply
Sorry, RC. Drury is with the Angels now.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Huh that was a cheap deal, I guess the Cubs agreed with you that Drury sucks (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
Well dang, they’ll just have to sign Correa instead
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Maybe the most interesting thing about the Correa signing potentially falling through would be the flurry of impromptu meetings, offers, and appeals that would come his way out of nowhere—teams would finally get a chance to see how Carlos Correa reacts to pitches he doesn’t know about ahead of time.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Holy. Shit.
andcountingQuote Reply
Jon Heyman isn’t going to be allowed to set foot in San Francisco ever again.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
COHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
(dying laughing). Seeing the Cubs win a World Series this year would be epic, but watching the Mets not win the World Series would be a surprisingly close alternative.
Also interesting at this point is that neither SF nor the Mets is at liberty to discuss whatever issue. I’m sure the news machine will prove me wrong, but unless someone violates a hippo, that’s going to remain Carlos’s mystery to reveal.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
It’s gonna be something innocuous but embarrassing like he has reabsorbed a conjoined twin or something
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Was reading this here tweet and thinking how Cohen may have inadvertently triggered the bulk of MLB owners to consider a salary cap/floor + revenue sharing system for the next CBA, assuming they aren’t just satisfied basking in the luxury tax dollars
https://twitter.com/mikemayer22/status/1605551036671762433?t=UbHygZIDdXunXW_RxOj0Qw&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This could’ve been a fanshot, but I guess we needed a new thread at some point, so new shit –> http://www.obstructedview.net/cohen-you-crazy-bastard/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
But . . . why? How are the Mets hurting other teams’ owners? Are they taking away revenue? No. Are they forcing other teams to spend half a billion to compete? No. Are they making the league unfair? No.
I think the general idea is that the Mets are somehow exposing the other teams as having more ability to spend than they’re letting on (the Yankees, Padres, Rangers, Phillies, Angels, Dodgers, and Giants aren’t hiding it well) but even if that is true there are no obvious ramifications.
Players have a union, but they don’t collude. (I have no idea if they’re allowed to.) They don’t get together and agree that no one of a certain skill level should ever agree to a contract under $50 million/year or for fewer than x years, where x is the number of years until their 65th birthday. No, they collectively bargain a basic set of guidelines that are usually light years from affecting the established stars of the game and then compete individually on the open market.
A salary floor would force the owners to pay more money, and they will never agree to do that. The flip side is that this could backfire on the Mets if their team turns into a train wreck (like if their two old $45-million starters shock the odds and get hurt in their 40s or the diva personalities prove too much for even Buck to handle. If all half a billion buys you is a headache, the rest of the owners will absolutely love this.
andcountingQuote Reply