Things to Think on Another Cubs Off Day

In Race To The Top by Rice Cube112 Comments

I tend to think that, whether it was by design because the Cubs slipped someone a few dollars in the scheduling committee, or if they just got lucky, the regular Thursday off day has been pretty amazing to help keep players and pitchers fresh amidst the rash of injuries the team has to weather. I suppose we should be thankful that Ian Happ’s oblique tweak is relatively minor and that Shota Imanaga seems confident he probably comes back shortly after his 15 days are up, but you can almost feel that the machine isn’t humming quite as well without Happ at the top of the lineup.

Anyway, at this time the Cubs lead the NL Central by a game over the annoyingly hot Cardinals (let’s see what happens next though), and at 25-19 with a .568 winning clip, sets them at a 92-win pace. Given that their rest of season schedule is one of the easiest in the league (if not the easiest) after the objectively toughest slate to start the season, you may hope that they exceed 92 wins, but baseball is anything but predictable. That said, we can see the following from the Cubs season thus far…

  • Of the 44 games played, 35 have been against teams with records of .500 or above;
  • The Cubs happen to have a winning record against .500+ teams, as well as a winning record both at Wrigley and on the road;
  • Despite some offensive hiccups, the Cubs remain among the top 10 in the majors in many offensive categories, including runs scored, OPS+, and wRC+;
  • Despite injuries, occasional blowups, and the like, the Cubs are around league average by ERA+ and at least not in the bottom third of the league as the relief corps gets settled and prospects like Ben Brown and Cade Horton continue to develop and in the latter’s case, just get a chance to start for real already.

25-19 means there are 118 scheduled games to go, and I’m still of the mind that a wild card is not coming out of the NL Central given the very competitive NL West and potentially a resurgence from some of the underperforming clubs in the NL East. The Cubs are currently at 67.3% odds to get to the postseason, with over 60% odds of winning the Central and around 13% odds to earn a bye, though they would have to hope for some sputtering from the Dodgers or the Mets there. Let’s have some fun with these last 118, starting with the not-as-bad-as-the-Rockies White Sox…

  • .500 the rest of way means 59-59, which puts the Cubs at 84-78, a win better than in 2023 and 2024, and obviously we would prefer they do better;
  • We already mentioned that staying at a .568 clip the rest of way means 92-70, which is obviously better;
  • If the Cubs cranked it up to .600 rest of way, that is another 70 wins, so 95-67 which would be splendid;
  • And finally, if we presume that the Cubs win two out of three going forward, that’s around 78 wins, so 103-59 which matches the win total of a recent Cubs World Series champion.

At this point we have to hope that guys like Kyle Tucker heat up a bit, that PCA stops bunting all stupid and just launches baseballs, and that the pitching continues to hold up to give the offense a chance to win the game. The schedule from here all the way into the first week of June is conducive to a nice run, so here’s to the Cubs taking advantage of it.

Share this Post

Comments

  1. Author
    Rice Cube

    Seems we have a lot of stuff to choose from if we do pod this weekend, among them…

    – Cubs playing “bad” teams (hope they do well against the White Sox)
    – Cade Horton and Mo Baller
    – Cubs starters and home runs
    – Cubs relievers and just not sucking (choose your trust warrior)
    – Rafael Devers vs Javier Baez (re: team spirit and being a good teammate I suppose)
    – Reinstating dead guys, but that might be just a couple quick hits before we say fuck Pete Rose (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  5. berselius

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #259

    “Vedder Cup”
    ⚪️⚪️🟢🟢
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  7. berselius

    To-day’s squadron de beis bol

    CF PCA
    RF Tucker
    LF Suzuki
    1B Busch
    C Kelly
    SS Swandong
    DH MoBalls
    2B Hoerner
    3B Berti

    SP Horton

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  17. berselius

    Perkins,

    IMO they’re less dumb looking than the camo hats typically are but maybe my colorblindness is working to my advantage here.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  32. berselius

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #260

    “Crosstown Classic”
    🟡🟡🟢🟢
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  84. berselius

    To-day’s based ball squadron

    CF PCA
    RF Tucker
    LF Suzuki
    1B Busch
    C Kelly
    SS Swanson
    DH Moe Balls
    2B Hoerner

    SP Rea
    3B Brujan

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  85. Author
    Rice Cube

    berselius:
    To-day’s based ball squadron

    CF PCA
    RF Tucker
    LF Suzuki
    1B Busch
    C Kelly
    SS Swanson
    DH Moe Balls
    2B Hoerner

    SP Rea
    3B Brujan

    I like how this implies Counsell isn’t sure whether to use the DH for the pitcher or the 3B (dying laughing)

    Not that the rules allow him to choose

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  109. Author
    Rice Cube

    Hmm!
    https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/chicago-cubs-anthony-rizzo-chris-chelios-seventh-inning-stretch-wrigley-field/

    “This one goes out to one of the greatest Cubs ever,” Chelios belted to the Wrigley Faithful. “The captain brought us a World Series championship. No better guy on the field, no better guy off the field. So to Anthony Rizzo and his family, if he is retiring, this one’s going to him.”

    “Let’s hear it. Rizzo, Rizzo!” Chelios exclaimed as fans joined in.

    Chris Chelios knows something we do not know

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  111. BVS

    Re: Shoeless Joe marrying his 15 yr old wife in 1908. He was 21. Age of consent for sex in SC in 1880 was 10 (yes, 10) and it lots of other states too. Raised to 16 in 1920. English common law that was adopted by most states placed minimum age to marry for women at 14. That has risen over the years.

    I suspect Shoeless Joe’s relationship was not unusual for the day, or the culture of the time.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment