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In Facepalm by berselius147 Comments

I thought about making this a daily facepalm post, but the 'daily' in it stretches the incredulity even beyond our level of discreditedness. So I have revived its predecessor instead.

Cubs Hires

  • I had been waiting for the Cubs to hire Jim Hickey as the new pitching coach to write a new post, but they took something like four weeks to announce it and by that point everyone just kind of assumed that he had already been hired and it was barely news.
  • Brandon Hyde is the new bench coach, with Dave Martinez heading to the Nationals.
  • Former Padre Will Venable retired and is the Cubs new first base coach.
  • They also hired special assistant Jim Benedict, who may or may not be some kind of pitching guru who was axed in the Marlins new ownership purge.

Qualifying Offers

  • As expected, the Cubs made QOs to Arrieta and Davis, who turned them down.
  • Under the current rules, the Cubs will net two picks at the end of the second round.

Awards

  • Anthony Rizzo won the Clemente Award, which honors players for community involvement and contributions off the field.
  • Soon to be former Miami Marlin Giancarlo Stanton won the MVP award in a surprisingly close vote, edging out Joey Votto by just two points. KB also picked up a first place vote somehow.
  • The only other Cubs to pick up votes in the major awards were Ian Happ and Joe Maddon, who got lone back of the ballot votes from someone(s).

Ice Cold Stove

  • Pretty much nothing has happened so far this offseason. It seems like things are going to start happening more quickly once the two giant dominoes fall, namely, Giancarlo Stanton being traded and Ohtani selecting some team. I don't have particularly high hopes that the Cubs pick up either of them.
  • Alex Cobb seems like the most likely guy for the Cubs to pick up. After that, we'll have to take a wait and see approach.

 

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Comments

  1. Ryno

    https://slate.com/sports/2017/11/eric-reid-says-nfl-wants-to-use-money-from-military-programs-to-buy-off-players.html

    So just to sum everything up…

    Colin Kaepernick: “I’m upset about the way people are treated differently based on their skin color. I’ll sit during the national anthem to show my displeasure.”

    Nate Boyer: “As a Green Beret, it’s my opinion that you should show your displeasure in a respectful way. You should kneel during the anthem instead of sitting.”

    CK: “OK.” kneels

    America: “Kaepernick is such a disrespectful piece of shit for kneeling during the anthem. Why does he hate the military so much?”

    Trump: “Those who kneel should be FIRED!”

    NFL players: “Oh, RLY?” kneel

    NFL owners: (to each other) “We need to get these guys to stop being so disrespectful to the troops.” (to the players) “Here, guys. Take this $100 million we originally pledged for military appreciation and use it for your little racism thing.”

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  2. SK

    I thought about making this a daily facepalm post, but the ‘daily’ in it stretches the incredulity even beyond our level of discreditedness.

    precisely why it should have been a daily facepalm post

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  3. Ryno

    Brett McMurphy @Brett_McMurphy
    Sources: John Currie was prepared to hire Mike Leach but university officials wouldn’t allow him to do so. Phillip Fulmer has been sabotaging search process in hopes to become Tennessee’s AD

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  4. Ryno

    Jon Morosi‏Verified account @jonmorosi
    Shohei Ohtani development: Multiple @MLB team execs believe Ohtani may actually prefer to sign with a club that doesn’t already have a Japanese star; Ohtani’s camp has not commented on that. @MLBNetwork

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  5. Ryno

    Everyone’s talking about O(h)tani, but Kazuhisa Makita will also be posted. He’s no slouch. He has a chance to be the most Japanese pitcher yet. He has the best available today.

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  6. dmick89

    Perkins,

    I don’t care about Grimm that much, but I’m kind of disappointed the Cubs didn’t hold onto Rondon. He’s only okay or even subpar, but slightly below average in this bullpen is the equivalent of Mariano Rivera for this team.

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  7. Perkins

    dmick89,

    Maybe they try to sign him for less than what he’d have gotten in arbitration. It seems like he’d lost Joe’s confidence (and rightly so), so I kind of doubt it.

    His ceiling is definitely very high, but he hasn’t been able to reach it with any consistency since about August 2016.

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  8. cerulean

    Berselius is too lazy to log in,
    It is surprising that the pinstripes are out of the running, though they are a pretty conservative team (despite their bullpen usage) with a new manager of unknown quantity. But since no east coast teams were chosen, maybe he just does not like the east coast.

    If not the Cubs, I am hoping for the Mariners or Padres to pick him up. Please not the Dodgers or Giants.

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  9. Smokestack Lightning

    cerulean: If not the Cubs, I am hoping for the Mariners or Padres to pick him up. Please not the Dodgers or Giants.

    Apparently, the Superfriends have maneuvered a team with practically no advantages into the final circle as a “major threat” to sign him. May not close the deal, but I’m impressed the Cubs have made it this far.

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  10. Ryno

    Jim Bowden???????? @Jim_BowdenSXM
    Shohei Ohtani is considering only these teams: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Rangers and Cubs. There are NO other teams that are still in it according to sources.

    Two of these teams are not like the others…

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  11. Ryno

    I enjoy watching the 49ers win games in theory, but them winning is kind of messing up my plan where they trade the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft for a ransom to a QB-needy team and end up competing for a wild card spot next season.

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  12. dmick89

    Ryno,

    That’s fine. They have multiple spots open to fill out the pen, but I think they need to sign at least two relievers. Two good ones unless we think Justin Wilson is all good.

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  13. Ryno

    Coach Harbaugh
    @CoachJim4UM
    Saw Coach D comments on continuing to “focus” on how “he” can beat Michigan. Congrats on turning around a 3-9 team, plagued with off field issues. Good for BIG to have him back.

    Miss ya, coach.

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  14. Ryno

    dmick89,

    The main thing for me is how much they’re putting into the pitching staff. Other than Hendricks and Edwards, none of the impact pitchers came through the system.

    With Lester’s contract and the prospects to acquire Quintana, the Cubs have invested quite a bit in a rotation that still needs two starters. They also need to bring in at least two good relievers, as you said.

    I know their lineup offsets this a bit, but those position players are going to start costing a lot really soon. I’d like to see them not spending too much on pitchers that aren’t quite good enough to be in a rotation.

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  15. dmick89

    Ryno: I know their lineup offsets this a bit, but those position players are going to start costing a lot really soon. I’d like to see them not spending too much on pitchers that aren’t quite good enough to be in a rotation.

    That’s understandable and I’m fine with the Cubs signing a few AAAA starters to try out in the bullpen, I still think they need to add at least two good relievers. It would be nice if the Cubs could count on Justin Wilson to do anything other than walk every other batter he faces, but I don’t have high expectations of that happening.

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  16. Rizzo the Rat

    Ryno:
    “Cubs considering Morrow to close,” per Ken Rosenthal.

    This makes no sense to me. Then again, this team also put Lackey on both playoff rosters and used him in a high-leverage situation.

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  17. Rizzo the Rat

    The Cubs have at least three relievers with a better projection than Morrow. Rondon also had a better projection and would have been less expensive. People are very prone to recency bias, but even more so with relief pitchers.

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  18. Ryno

    dmick89,

    They totally do. And I don’t mind paying money or prospects for a reliever like Chapman was in ’16. Or Andrew Miller. Relievers are just so volatile…

    I don’t think I would mind investing in relievers if they had more cheap production in the rotation.

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  19. uncle dave

    Hey, remember how they used to show those lists of all the Cubs’ third basemen since Ron Santo during broadcasts? Good times.

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  20. sharpchicity

    uncle dave
    Guys who have gotten more than 50 innings…
    2017: Bryant, La Stella, Candalerio (guest appearances by Baez, Happ, Taylor Davis(?), Wilson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo)
    2016: Bryant, Baez, La Stella (Candalerio, Munenori Kawasaki, Coghlan)
    2015: Bryant, Jonathan Herrera, Baez, La Stella (Olt, Alcantara, Coghlan)
    2014: Luis Valbuena, Mike Olt, Chris Valaika (Emilio Bonifacio)

    We still haven’t found one that is good enough to play every day

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  21. Smokestack Lightning

    Rizzo the Rat:
    The Cubs have at least three relievers with a better projection than Morrow. Rondon also had a better projection and would have been less expensive. People are very prone to recency bias, but even more so with relief pitchers.

    I love projections as much as the next fag-statter, but I tend to look at reliever ones as the least reliable, perhaps even worthless, and thus probably not a good reason to yay or nay a reliever signing.

    For my part, given the volatility of relievers, the only way I give a crap one way or another (outside of the truly transformative bullpen arms, of which I can count on one hand) is whether or not a signing impedes the team’s ability to add a more useful, reliable piece in the immediate future. If Morrow doesn’t hinder the club’s ability to add bats and SP arms, then I don’t really care, and maybe it will work out. Volatility goes both ways, and he was pretty good last year. Maybe he can be pretty good again. If the money’s there to burn, and it doesn’t keep the Cubs from pursuing a Darvish (assuming they’re interested) worth a shot to see, I think.

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  22. Myles

    Smokestack Lightning: I love projections as much as the next fag-statter, but I tend to look at reliever ones as the least reliable, perhaps even worthless, and thus probably not a good reasonto yay or nay a reliever signing.

    For my part, given the volatility of relievers, the only way I give a crap one way or another (outside of the truly transformative bullpen arms, of which I can count on one hand) is whether or not a signing impedes the team’s ability to add a more useful, reliable piece in the immediate future. If Morrow doesn’t hinder the club’s ability to add bats and SP arms, then I don’t really care, and maybe it will work out. Volatility goes both ways, and he was pretty good last year. Maybe he can be pretty good again. If the money’s there to burn, and it doesn’t keep the Cubs from pursuing a Darvish (assuming they’re interested) worth a shot to see, I think.

    The error bars on reliever projections are gigantic.

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  23. Rizzo the Rat

    Myles: The error bars on reliever projections are gigantic.

    Sure… but that doesn’t mean we have good evidence that Morrow can be a closer.

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  24. Smokestack Lightning

    Rizzo the Rat: Sure… but that doesn’t mean we have good evidence that Morrow can be a closer.

    Much depends on what the contract terms end up being, but if the idea is to find another Wade Davis without paying Wade Davis prices, you’re gonna have to roll the dice on someone like a Brandon Morrow.

    Personally, I won’t much care either way. Closer is likely going to be a recurring issue over the next few years since the Cubs passed on even pursuing the most projectable, reliable sort a year ago.

    And if it’s between Morrow and Davis at this point, I’d definitely roll Morrow and the discount over Davis.

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  25. Ryno

    Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
    Sources: Shohei Ohtani is done interviewing the seven finalists to sign him. His last meeting was actually Tuesday night with the San Diego Padres. Next, presumably, will be his decision. Timetable is not clear yet, but it could well be soon.

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  26. Ryno

    Jim Bowden???????? @Jim_BowdenSXM
    Shohei Ohtani has not narrowed his list of seven teams as of this morning according to sources close to the process

    But it could be happening as soon as right now…

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  27. Ryno

    Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
    Browns fired executive VP Sashi Brown, the man who headed Cleveland’s personnel department the past two years, league sources told @diannaESPN and me.

    Browns is as Browns does.

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  28. Ryno

    Benjamin Allbright @AllbrightNFL
    #Browns have been looking at “football guys” to replace Brown. (Think McCloughan, Dorsey)

    McCloughan is great and Dorsey is good, but *whispers* it might take them more than two years to turn the team around…

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  29. Ryno

    Ryno,

    Adam Caplan @caplannfl
    #Browns owner Jimmy Haslam bought team late in October 2012; he’ll be on his 5th GM or EVP of football operations once that position is filled…again.

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  30. Ryno

    Ryno,

    There’s no word yet on whether he’s decided which team yet, but don’t rule out the chance that he’s already decided and just not announced. Either way, I expect an announcement to be made in the future. And it could happen as soon as right now.

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  31. Ryno

    Ryno,

    And per BleedCubbieBlue’s Alvin Yellon…

    it’s my understanding that every young Japanese student takes 10 years of English in school.

    When I was in Japan I ran into quite a number of Japanese people who were quite happy to converse with me in English, and in fact spoke it quite well.

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  32. Smokestack Lightning

    Ryno,

    Given Chatwood’s inability to stay healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised if the plan is to add Ohtani and Cobb.

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  33. Ryno

    Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
    In last 2 seasons, Tyler Chatwood is tied with #Nats Stephen Strasburg for 2nd in the NL in road ERA with a 2.57 ERA, trailing only #Dodgers Clayton Kershaw (2.16 ERA). He’ll earn $38M over 3 years, per @Joelsherman1, which is biggest contract in early FA market

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  34. Edwin

    Hmmm. Not super happy about the Chatwood signing, but I guess for a 4th or 5th starter he’s ok. The GB% is elite, but the K% and BB% is scary bad.

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  35. Edwin

    5th worst K/BB ratio (1.6) over 2016-2017. 7th worst K%-BB% of 6.8%. Not really my type of pitcher, but the ERA has been outperforming the FIP for awhile now, so ok. I guess he’s also a decent candidate for a “change of scenery” so maybe it will all work out.

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  36. dmick89

    My guess is the Cubs will be lucky to get 30 starts from Chatwood over this contract. Way too much money in my opinion for a fifth starter who can’t stay healthy.

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  37. Edwin

    I hope the Cubs sign someone like Darvish, or trade for solid pitcher. If they try to fill out their rotation with high risk upside guys it’s going to be a disappointing offseason.

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  38. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    My guess is the Cubs will be lucky to get 30 starts from Chatwood over this contract. Way too much money in my opinion for a fifth starter who can’t stay healthy.

    Health is definitely a concern, but he’s made 25 starts the last two years. Averaging only ten for the next three seems a tad too far on the pessimistic side of things. I worry more about him being bad than hurt.

    But I don’t mind the signing. It’s higher risk than I generally prefer, but I get what the Cubs are doing. There’s some youth in Chatwood’s arm still, and with the change of scenery (and not just any old change of scenery either, but the most dramatic kind there is), the velo, the GB rate, spin rate, and all that other crap, there’s the potential for the Cubs to make out reasonably well here. I would imagine they have pretty high hopes, as they wouldn’t have spent 3 years and almost 40 mil otherwise. Just have to hope they’re seeing things better than we are.

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  39. Ryno

    Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
    hearing Ohtani decision could possibly come by early next week #rnagers #padres #angels #cubs #giants #dodgers #mariners

    I heard it’s already happened. I also heard it’s possible that Ohtani will die before he makes his decision.

    One thing I do know: There is no team named the RNagers.

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  40. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    I take this as the Cubs moving on from Otani and just signing all the available starters they can because otherwise I hate this.

    I disagree. I think they genuinely like Chatwood. Like a lot a lot. If this were late January and everyone else were gone, then I’d say it’s probable the Cubs had gone into fuck-it-gotta-sign-somebody mode. But they jumped the market to sign him to 3 years and 40MM, an amount nobody thought he’d get.

    Which makes me think the Cubs see something that projects pretty well here, and they wanted to snap him up before somebody else figured it out and beat them to it.

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  41. Smokestack Lightning

    Ryno: If they’re not, then we’re following the wrong team.

    I’ll admit. I lean towards trusting the FO on most things they do. They’ve earned a lot of space to fuck up with me. Doesn’t mean they won’t fuck up and haven’t fucked up, especially in the FA market, but in most cases I can at least understand and agree with the thought process behind the moves they make, which is a far cry from what I’ve been able to say about any other Cubs FO regime.

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  42. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: I think they genuinely like Chatwood. Like a lot a lot.

    I’m not sure liking someone a lot a lot erases a horrible strikeout to walk ratio or serious health issues. Other than spin rate and a good fastball I’m not sure what’s to like. If you told me the Cubs signed Chatwood to be a late inning reliever, I’d probably like the singing until I saw how much they signed him for. Speaking of that, Chatwood would fit right in with this bullpen.

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  43. dmick89

    It’s worth pointing out that the good fastball and spin rate have done nothing to help him throw strikes or strike people out. He’s relatively young so an improvement isn’t unheard of, but I’m not expecting one. I expect a back of the rotation starter for 10-15 starts per year over three seasons.

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  44. dmick89

    If people are telling me that teams were lining up to sign Chatwood for $35-40 million then I guess that makes Darvish worth about $600 million over 4 or 5 years. Kris Bryant would like to sign an extension in this market. He’d be the first trillion dollar player and that would be a team friendly deal so there’s no way Boras allows that.

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  45. Edwin

    dmick89:
    It’s worth pointing out that the good fastball and spin rate have done nothing to help him throw strikes or strike people out. He’s relatively young so an improvement isn’t unheard of, but I’m not expecting one. I expect a back of the rotation starter for 10-15 starts per year over three seasons.

    One of the things I heard was that he could try and raise his release point in order to better utilize the spin rate and create more movement. Although who knows if that would throw off his control, or mess with his ground ball rate.

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  46. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: I’m not sure liking someone a lot a lot erases a horrible strikeout to walk ratio or serious health issues. Other than spin rate and a good fastball I’m not sure what’s to like. If you told me the Cubs signed Chatwood to be a late inning reliever, I’d probably like the singing until I saw how much they signed him for. Speaking of that, Chatwood would fit right in with this bullpen.

    I wasn’t saying I thought they liked the cut of his jib, man. I think they like the raw ability and think there’s a lot more there that can be tapped, especially now that he no longer has to pitch half his games in the insane asylum of Coors Field (a factor that I think is hard to overstate). It’s a worthy gamble, imo. Have to be willing to do a few of those if you’re going to realize some upside. And it’s really not that much money. I’m not thrilled about the three years, but eh, whatever.

    As I thought I said above, I’m not doing cartwheels over the signing, but I’m okay with it. My guess is he more or less works out as a solid backend rotation piece, a reasonable Hammel/Lackey sort if things break okay. But there is also reason to think he could be quite a bit more. And, yes, he could also end up being a total waste of money and piss us all off when he does rarely pitch.

    Against Arrieta and the Cardinals.

    Who light him up and shut us down.

    In other words, it could go either way.

    Which as we all know is big, if true.

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  47. dmick89

    If the Cubs go out and sign Darvish and Cobb I’ll like this a lot more. He’d probably still get his 10 starts that he’s going to get anyway and he’s way better than Tseng or anything else the Cubs have in their system.

    Also, I get trusting this front office to some extent. They’re very good at what they do, but they’ve probably hit on as many as they’ve missed when it comes to free agents. If you factor in how awful the Heyward signing looks at this point and how bad the Lester signing may end up being unless 2016 was more of a fluke like I’m hoping, they’ve only been decent at signing free agents.

    $38 million isn’t worth being upset about so whatever. Hopefully they add a couple better starters yet this offseason.

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  48. GW

    dmick89: He’s relatively young so an improvement isn’t unheard of, but I’m not expecting one.

    He just needs to keep trying out new UCLs until he finds the right one.

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  49. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: Also, I get trusting this front office to some extent. They’re very good at what they do, but they’ve probably hit on as many as they’ve missed when it comes to free agents. If you factor in how awful the Heyward signing looks at this point and how bad the Lester signing may end up being unless 2016 was more of a fluke like I’m hoping, they’ve only been decent at signing free agents.

    Agreed. But then, I think “decent” is about the best you can hope for from a FO in free agency. Maybe I’m not thinking it through enough but I can’t think of a single organization that crushes it in free agency on a regular basis. It’s a route you want to avoid whenever you can.

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  50. Smokestack Lightning

    Also, I know the Heyward signing hasn’t worked out, but I still really liked that move. The sort you want a FO to make every time if they can. So I’m not going to knock them for that one. I really wanted it, and I was over the moon when it happened. Who knew he’d completely stop hitting baseballs?

    And the Lester deal has been more or less a success, imo. A down year last year, definitely, but not the first one he’s ever had. We’ll see if the trend continues or whether he has another couple good years left. It’s already half over and it accomplished what it was designed to do: be a vital part of a WS Cubs team. I don’t think the expectations for the backend of it were for him to be a TOR into his mid-to-late 30s. They weren’t my expectations anyway.

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  51. uncle dave

    dmick89: Also, I get trusting this front office to some extent. They’re very good at what they do, but they’ve probably hit on as many as they’ve missed when it comes to free agents. If you factor in how awful the Heyward signing looks at this point and how bad the Lester signing may end up being unless 2016 was more of a fluke like I’m hoping, they’ve only been decent at signing free agents.

    I’m inclined to trust this front office just because I spent the first 40 years of my life watching the Cubs be run into the ground by a endless parade of dipshits and now I have a “2016 World Series Champions” license plate holder. It’s tough for me to justify getting bent out of shape like I used to, even if there’s evidence that I should.

    If I had to guess, at least part of the whole thing with signing Jimmy Chitwood is just an effort to get a deal done in front of the rush in what looks like an extreme seller’s market. Wasn’t $13 mil a year Edwin Jackson money, like, five years ago? I’d prefer this to rolling the dice on this year’s Bert Anderson.

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  52. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: Also, I know the Heyward signing hasn’t worked out, but I still really liked that move. The sort you want a FO to make every time if they can. So I’m not going to knock them for that one. I really wanted it, and I was over the moon when it happened. Who knew he’d completely stop hitting baseballs?

    Absolutely. It was a great thing at the time and if Harper makes it to free agency, I hope they aren’t reluctant to go after him because of Heyward. Not that those two are comparable or anything, but you know what I mean.

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  53. cerulean

    dmick89:
    I take this as the Cubs moving on from Otani and just signing all the available starters they can because otherwise I hate this.

    Considering you hate everything, I think this might be a good signing (dying laughing)

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  54. Rizzo the Rat

    My hope entering this offseason was that the two starters the Cubs acquired would average out to be around league-average. So… the next pitcher they add had better be good.

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  55. Smokestack Lightning

    So… if I’m reading the news right (and I like to think that I am), Stanton would now accept trades to Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, and… the Cubes.

    He must really not want to go to St. Louis. (dying laughing)

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  56. Ryno

    Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN
    For some sense of what MIA will get in return, remember this: the Texas Rangers traded A-Rod, a SS widely perceived to be the best player in MLB at the time, to NYY for Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias — and Texas kicked in about 35% of money owed to A-Rod to offset salary.

    So, like, Kyle Schwarber and Tommy La Stella?

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  57. dmick89

    Ryno,

    I do. I don’t think Stanton is going to age well and even if the Marlins kick in a sizable amount, the cubs would still pay more than I’d like. If they pay 35% I wouldn’t give up more than Albert Almora.

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  58. Ryno

    dmick89,

    His health issues aside, isn’t he basically a right-handed best-case-scenario Schwarber with better defense?

    I just saw he’s signed through his age 38 season. WTF were the Marlins thinking?

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  59. dmick89

    Ryno: His health issues aside, isn’t he basically a right-handed best-case-scenario Schwarber with better defense?

    Best case scenario for both would probably favor Stanton by at least a win or two, but yeah. No way would I trade Schwarber in that deal. If the Cubs were interested, the only outfield I can see working is Schwarber, Heyward and Stanton.

    I probably wouldn’t do it unless the Marlins paid half the contract and even then I’d only send them no more than Almora.

    I have no idea why Stanton included the Cubs in his no-trade list. The Cubs aren’t going to have any interest in him. Too expensive and there are probably better ways to improve the team than picking up a huge contract for someone who can’t stay healthy.

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