The Ever-Diminishing Odds

In Commentary And Analysis by Rice Cube86 Comments

It’s a Cubs off day, so that’s about time to check in on our favorite squadron’s slim chances of making a difference this season…

  • Currently, the Cubs stand at 61-64, in third place in the NL Central, 11.5 games back of Milwaukee for the division (kiss that goodbye), and 5.5 games back of Atlanta for that final wild card spot.
  • To get that wild card, the Cubs will have to leapfrog the Cardinals, the Giants, the Mets, and the aforementioned Atlanta squadron.
  • Fangraphs odds give the Cubs virtually no chance (0.4%) of winning the division, no chance whatsoever of clinching a first round bye (dying laughing), and only a 3.1% overall chance of making the postseason by any means (cue Dumb and Dumber gif).

Given all this, I guess we continue to be thankful that most of the National League still blows and the Cubs haven’t been mathematically eliminated yet, unlike certain neighbors to the south. The road to the end of the season gets decidedly easier, though that won’t mean much if the Cubs can’t muster up a run, let alone many runs, in the games that remain. Here’s the schedule going forward for those curious…

  • Off day (that’s today!)
  • 3x Tigers at home
  • 3x @ Marlins
  • 3x @ Pirates (maybe they’ll miss Skenes or he’ll have been shut down because they’re cheap)
  • Off day
  • 3x @ Nats
  • 3x Pirates at home
  • Off day
  • 3x Yankees at home
  • 3x @ Dodgers (eww travel)
  • Off days
  • 3x @ Rockies (gross, Coors)
  • 3x A’s at home
  • 4x Nats at home
  • 3x @ Phillies (hope they clinched a bye or tops in the league by then so they can coast)
  • Off day
  • 3x Reds at home to close the season

Napkin math says they need at least 85 wins to even have a chance, which is two more than they got all last year. With 37 games remaining, that’s a 24-13 record. They should probably aim to do better than this, with some red-hot prospects in Iowa that might yet get the call in September, but as berselius says, play better and things might happen.

Share this Post

Comments

  1. Author
    Rice Cube

    Bah, there are only like 4 Marlins who got into the HOF, plus Jay Buhner was a landmine

    ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 505 9/9:
    Rarity: 49
    IMMACULATE!
    🟩🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩
    Play at:
    https://immaculategrid.com
    @immaculategrid x @baseball_ref

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  3. Perkins

    Avoided all the landmines but that HoF column was tough on rarity.

    ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 505 9/9:
    Rarity: 33
    IMMACULATE!
    🟩🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩
    Play at:
    https://immaculategrid.com
    @immaculategrid x @baseball_ref

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  4. Author
    Rice Cube

    On the one, hand, let there be jokes, but on the other hand, maybe this should be the way to go?

    You gotta skip the video and scroll down a bit but there are some details…

    https://marlinsenrollment.com/familia

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  6. Perkins

    8/9 Cubs today and the ninth at least has a connection to the other Chicago base ball squadron.

    ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 506 9/9:
    Rarity: 14
    IMMACULATE!
    🟩🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩
    Play at:
    https://immaculategrid.com
    @immaculategrid x @baseball_ref

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  7. Author
    Rice Cube

    Our season-long nightmare is over

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  12. berselius

    Neris was maybe miscast as a closer but he has a solid career as a well above average reliever. Ricketts cheap FTL

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  17. Author
    Rice Cube

    berselius,

    Yeah it does look bad in some sense, but they did release him in time for him to latch on with someone else and still get paid, and be postseason eligible if he actually gets lucky. It might not be the strongest case but I wouldn’t say they didn’t have one hehe.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  18. Perkins

    berselius:
    BN is trying to horn in on the star wars rambling here.

    https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/08/20/unflattering-comp-standings-compression-pearson-roberts-ballesteros-pitcher-development-and-other-cubs-bullets/

    If they start discussing cast iron pans in the bullets we might need to call up GBTS for legal representation (dying laughing).

    Gotta disagree with Brett’s Star Wars opinions there. TLJ was a pretty good movie that came out less than 8 years ago, and both The Bad Batch and Tales of the Jedi were good shows (the latter more of a limited series). I’d say those and Acolyte are all superior to Mandalorian, which is mostly an overhyped Glup Shitto parade.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  19. berselius

    Perkins,

    I can’t argue with you today about TLJ (dying laughing). I’d go to bat for the Mandalorian for being more like the old adventure serials that Star Wars / Indiana Jones grew out of, but I can’t really plug it when I never really finished the series.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  21. Perkins

    berselius,

    Mandalorian would have been pretty good if they’d ended at two seasons. Book of Boba Fett and Mando S3 were absolute trash that immediately undid all its narrative stakes.

    The show has an identity crisis: it tries to be a heavy-of-the-week Spaghetti Western, a prestige TV drama, and a narrative bridge to make sense of the sequels and get people to like them. It only succeeds at the first and reinforces my belief that Dave Filoni and Jon Favreau are basically kids playing with action figures when they try to do live-action Star Wars.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  23. Perkins

    Rice Cube:
    The Star Wars LEGOs are pretty fun though

    I have the UCS Venator and a few other less intense sets. Can’t wait for the midi-scale Home One next year.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  25. berselius

    Perkins,

    I got the big interceptor a few months ago, and it looks amazing. The designers have stepped up their game over the past few years. It’s a big price tag but it feels much more like you’re getting your money’s worth than it was back in the day.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  26. berselius

    I’m still kicking myself for not buying the Executor when I saw it in a lego store in Austin back in 2011. Not that $400 was super in my budget at the time.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  29. Perkins

    berselius,

    That UCS Executor is even longer than the Venator – I think it’s over four feet. I have the recent midi-scale Executor on my desk at home and it looks pretty sharp.

    Given space constraints, the main UCS sets that would get me to open the wallet at this point would be a Jedi Interceptor and maybe a Neb B Frigate (though the latter would probably be very large). A new B-Wing would be cool too.

    Of the stuff that’s been leaked for next year, I’m already planning to get the midi Home One and Acclamator and the play scale ARC-170 and Ahsoka’s Jedi Interceptor.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  33. berselius

    <3 to a Javy chant breaking out at Wrigley.

    Followed by him striking out on a pitch six inches out of the zone, for old time's sake (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  57. Author
    Rice Cube

    Fun one today, probably another bullpen game for Detroit because they kick puppies though…

    LF Happ
    3B Paredes
    RF Bellinger
    DH Suzuki
    1B Busch
    2B Hoerner
    SS Swanson
    CF PCA
    C Amaya

    Actual SP who should go more than two innings –> Steele

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment