The Calm Before the Storm

There isn’t a lot going on in terms of major trades right now, aside from that one where the Red Sox sent a broken pitcher to the Nats for an infielder who finally figured something out. I think part of it has to do with teams waiting until the absolute last second to make their decision whether to buy or sell, and there was a tweet or something not too long ago showing about two-thirds of the majors within spitting distance of a playoff spot, so maybe we can start with the standings, and maybe sprinkle in some playoff odds.

Yeah They’re Selling

Looking at teams that are way under .500, like more than 15 games or so, and have less than 1% odds to make the posteason, we have the obvious teams that aren’t going anywhere in the Royals, A’s, and Angels in the American League, which is already a pretty “bad” league in that only six of the AL teams are at .500 or above. The National League has the surprisingly bad (or maybe not) Mets, the Giants, and the Rockies.

They Might Buy (or Sell)…to An Extent

These are teams that are still technically in it but face an uphill battle to get above every other team in the wild card pecking order. The AL has the O’s and Blue Jays, who have what you might consider cores in place but have severely underachieved, then the Twins and Tigers still in the hunt but enough back of the White Sox and Guardians that they might do a soft sell, while the Astros and Mariners are still within strikging distance of a weak AL West.

On the other side, what would the Nats and Marlins do, or the Pirates and Cardinals for that matter? The West is basically the Dodgers’ to lose again, though Arizona and the Padres are still both in wild card contention, battling with the aforementioned teams in that pecking order. These teams could go either way and this next week will tell us a lot, though it would be fun for the Cubs to put the Cards out of their misery this week.

The Buyers

Your mileage may vary on how aggressive these teams are, as they are all in possession of a playoff spot at the moment, but the National League teams are so far back of the division leaders that it might not make sense to a cynic to go all in. That said, if you get in, you have a chance, and it makes sense to have the best roster possible in that event because the new guys will help in every series you earn. I imagine the Phillies will be aggressive because Dombrowski. I also think, even if we haven’t always felt Jed Hoyer and crew have done the best job, that the Cubs always seem to get what they need during the trade deadline these past few years, so that would be fun to follow whenever it happens. I don’t think Arizona will try to make a huge move to try to catch the Dodgers, and it sounds like they might be trading guys like Ketel Marte if social media has any indication.

I would imagine the three AL West teams still with a shot at the division will do their best to improve, so those guys might be at least moderately active. Same with the four teams at the top of the AL Central (maybe just three if Detroit waves the white flag at the end of teh week). I’m not sure how aggressive the Red Sox will be, but they’ve been on a heater recently and maybe they want to sustain that. The Rays always make insane trades and the Yankees might do what they can to try to overtake them for the AL East title.

And now…we take a wait and see approach.