Series Preview: St. Louie Cardinals (47-41) at Chicago Cubs (52-35)

In Series Previews by berselius167 Comments

I’m having a tough time feeling excited about Independence Day, if only because *gestures everywhere*. But we still have baseball. Gotta take some joy in something rather than staring into the abyss all day I guess.

The Cardinals surged earlier in June, but are currently coming off a three game sweep by Pittsburgh in which the Cards offense scored zero runs. You love to see it. The Cubs also ended their four game series with the Cards last week with two shutouts as well (let’s ignore the first two games), so hopefully their offensive power outage continues.

Overall the Cards offense is just one rank off of mid, and while their team defensive numbers are second in the league they aren’t lapping everyone like I seem to remember earlier in the year. The Cubs again manage to dodge SP Sonny Gray and C Ivan Herrera in this series, you love to see it.

Team Leaders

Urinals

  • OBP: Brendan Donovan (.364)
  • ISO: Nolan Gorman (.176)
  • HR: Contreras/Nootbaar (11)
  • R+RBI: Contreras (93)
  • wRC+: Donovan (122)
  • BSR: VSII (3.8)
  • Defense: Masyn Winn (11.0)
  • Hitter WAR: Winn (2.3)
  • SP K/9: Sonny Gray (9.63)
  • SP BB/9: Gray (1.62)
  • SP ERA: Gray (3.51)
  • SP FIP: Gray (2.88)
  • RP K/9: Phil Maton (12.00)
  • RP BB/9: Steven Matz (1.19)
  • RP ERA: Maton (1.91)
  • RP FIP: Maton (2.06)
  • Pitcher WAR: Gray (2.6)

Cubs

  • OBP: Tucker (.392)
  • ISO: Suzuki (.285)
  • HR: Suzuki (23)
  • R+RBI: PCA (124)
  • wRC+: Tucker (154)
  • BSR: PCA (5.6)
  • Defense: PCA (9.8)
  • Hitter WAR: PCA (4.1)
  • SP K/9: Boyd (7.94)
  • RP K/9: Palencia (10.16)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (1.89)
  • RP BB/9: Brasier (1.93)
  • SP ERA: Boyd (2.65)
  • RP ERA: Pomeranz (0.00)
  • SP FIP: Boyd (3.47)
  • RP FIP: Brasier (2.16)
  • Pitcher WAR: Boyd (2.0)

Who isn’t available?

For the Cardinals, Catcher Ivan Herrera, who was having a breakout season, remains on the IL with a hamstring injury suffered in mid-June. As of the last series it looked like it may be a short term one but now things are murkier. Willson Contreras is day to day after taking a Paul Skenes pitch to the hand over the weekend. OF Jordan Walker is working his way back from an appendectomy and is playing in the minors, and does not seem likely to return in this series. Top prospect Quinn Matthews was shut down in April with a shoulder injury, and has been bad in limited time in the minors since beginning his ramp back up.

For the Cubs, Miguel Amaya has done some light baseball activity while rehabbing his oblique strain but is not close to returning. SP Javier Assad has thrown a few bullpen sessions but it seems like the Cubs are taking things more slowly after his re-injury earlier in the year.

Pitching Matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP listed for all.

Friday: Captain Redass, RHP (6.20, 2.21, 4.76, 3.96) vs Colin Rea, RHP (6.43, 2.18, 4.37, 4.83), 1:20 PM CT (Apple TV)

Love to see that the ‘stache is still kicking around (and being kicked around by other teams) in The Lou. He was blown up for six runs in four innings in his last start against Cleveland. Even when things are going relatively well they’ve had a relatively quick hook for him, so hopefully the Cubs can also feast against the bullpen.

Saturday: Matthew Liberatore, LHP (7.41, 1.66, 3.70, 3.05) vs Jameson Taillon, RHP (6.99, 1.89, 4.44, 5.17), 1:20 PM CT

Libby’s been great this year, no notes. Hopefully the Cubs get good Taillon, or at least he keeps the ball in the yard. He’s had just a wee bit of an issue with the long ball this year (dying laughing), as he leads all qualified pitchers in home run rate on the year.

Sunday: Erick Fedde, RHP (5.54, 3.98, 4.56, 4.66) vs Matthew Boyd, LHP (7.94, 2.01, 2.65, 3.47), 5:10 PM CT (ESPN)

The Cubs blew up Fedde in their last matchup, scoring seven runs in 3.2 innings. The Pirates hung seven on him again in his next start. Let’s make it a hat trick?

Go Cubs. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do. Unless that thing is extending Kyle Tucker. Do that.

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  3. Rice Cube

    The Cubs blew up Fedde in their last matchup, scoring seven runs in 3.2 innings. The Pirates hung seven on him again in his next start. Let’s make it a hat trick?

    Triple sevens is a jackpot

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  6. BVS

    Dylan Cease (~$7M 2025), Yu Darvish (~$13, 2025 and 15M thru 28) and some cash for Reese McGuire, Moises Ballesteros, and Ben Brown.

    We just need the Pads to tank some more.

    Cease’s ERA looks bad, but his other numbers are in line with his better years except BABIP and like 4% higher hard hit rate.

    Thoughts?

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  10. Author
    berselius

    According to Craig Counsell, this is no small injury. Jameson Taillon is expected to miss “a pretty significant amount of time, potentially “more than a month.”

    fack, I guess this means they might trade for a starter sooner

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  12. Rice Cube

    berselius,

    Looking at the standings, the most obvious sellers are the bottom 3 in each league who are over 7 games out of the wild card, and even they might be inclined to wait (well, maybe not the Rockies)…also those teams might be a bit unpredictable since I feel like the White Sox and possibly the Rockies aren’t eligible to pick in the top 10 next year anyway, I think we need to wait until closer to or even after the All-Star break for more teams to realize they suck.

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  15. Author
    berselius

    Rice Cube,

    A lot more teams have dropped back since the last time I looked a few weeks ago. Royals and guardians might be sellers now, among others

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  18. andcounting

    PCA really is fun to watch. Even on replay I expected that ball to get by him. (dying laughing)

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  25. Author
    berselius

    berselius:
    These cardinals caps are wet garbage

    Ugh, I thought the cubs were in their usual Friday caps. Big 👎, at least they match the unis though.

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  37. Rice Cube

    I swear I remembered EJax was an army brat and I still messed it up (dying laughing)

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #308

    “Independence Day”
    🟢🟢🟡🟡
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

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  48. Author
    berselius

    Mikolas is tied with the most HR ever allowed in a start, will the cardinals let him make history

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  76. Rice Cube

    Didn’t think Marmol was such a Cub

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #309

    “Tribute To Dave Parker”
    🟡🟢🟢🟡
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

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  77. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s based ball squadron vs LHP Liberatore

    LF Happ
    RF Tucker
    DH Suzuki
    CF PCA
    SS Swandong
    C Kelly
    1B Busch
    2B Hoerner
    3B Shaw

    Opener: Pomeranz

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  106. Rice Cube

    berselius,

    Nobody knows, I guess they have a cunning plan. I also feel like for every game they’ve given a way this season they’ve pulled off two wins that they didn’t deserve, so go Cubs

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  148. Author
    berselius

    Love that the Cubs set a club record with 8 homers on Friday, and have scored nearly as many today with out a long ball.

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