Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers (26-18) at Chicago Cubs (29-18)

It’s just the Cubs lot this year that they’ve had not one but two double digit winning streaks, and yet have just a 1.5 game lead on the division. At least the rotation lined up in a way that the three currently ‘best’ pitchers in the rotation are pitching this series, but I have sure felt the pitching injury issues much more acutely in the background lately.

Team Leaders

Brewers

• OBP: Brice Turang (.409)
• ISO: Gary Sánches (.233)
• HR: Turang / Jake Bauers (6)
• R+RBI: Turang: 63
• wRC+: Turang (154)
• BSR: Turang (1.1)
• Defense: Joey Ortiz (5.2)
• Batter WAR: Turang (1.9)
• SP K/9: Misiorowski (14.12)
• SP BB/9: Logan Henderson (1.50)
• SP ERA: Kyle Harrison (2.09)
• SP FIP: Miz (2.27)
• RP K/9: Aaron Ashby (13.50)
• RP BB/9: Shane Drohan (1.29)
• RP ERA: Ashby (1.69)
• RP FIP: Drohan (1.67)
• Pitcher WAR: Miz (1.9)

Cubs

• OBP: Conforto (.456)
• ISO: Conforto (.309)
• HR: Happ (10)
• R+RBI: Happ (55)
• wRC+: Conforto (208)
• BSR: Swanson (1.7)
• Defense: PCA (10.4)
• Batter WAR: PCA (1.8)
• SP K/9: Imanaga (9.77)
• SP BB/9: Imanaga (2.15)
• SP ERA: Brown (1.60)
• SP FIP: Brown (2.44)
• RP K/9: Phil Maton (11.68) (LOL)
• RP BB/9: Milner (2.49)
• RP ERA: Palencia (2.00)
• RP FIP: Palencia (3.54)

It gives me no pleasure to report that Brice Turang is having a breakout season, if you can say that for a guy who was a 4+ WAR player last year.

Who isn’t available?

We’re pretty familiar with the Cubs laundry list of injuries, though at least one may be coming back soon in Caleb Thielbar. Matthew Boyd is supposed to throw a bullpen session today, hopefully he’s back in a few weeks after his bizarre injury.

The Brewers have a pile of injuries of their own, most of which I hadn’t checked in on since spring training. Last year’s breakout starter Quinn Priester has been out all season with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. He’s on a rehab assignment and got shelled in a low-A game over the weekend. Old nemesis Bob Minocqua has been on the IL with shoulder inflammation after being pulled from a start at the beginning of the month following a big drop in velocity. He’s working his way back and has thrown a bullpen session or two. The Miz is day to day with recurring leg cramps over his last few starts, here’s hoping the Cubs forget to stock any bananas in the visitors locker room on Wednesday. OF Brandon Lockridge is out after superficially tearing up his knee earlier this month.

Pitching Matchups

ZiPS projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each pitcher

Monday: Brandon Sproat, RHP (8.26, 3.65, 4.61) vs Shota Imanaga, LHP (8.76, 2.03, 3.79), 6:40 PM CT

Sproat was part of the return for the Freddy Peralta trade. He was a high draft pick college arm by the Mets in 2023 who moved up to AAA fairly quickly, but faced relative struggles at that level of competition. He’s made eight starts with the Brewers and has struggled with home runs, giving up eight in 36 innings this year with a nearly 20% HR/FB rate (!)

Given Shota’s fly-ball tendencies and the who-knows-how-accurate forecast I’m seeing for the wind strongly blowing out today, it could be a long game.

Tuesday: Jacob Misiorowski, RHP (11.73, 3.67, 3.57) vs Ben Brown, RHP (9.77, 3.06, 3.84), 6:40 PM CT

The Miz is unfortunately good! The only question with him from last year was just volume concerns, but he’s managed to go at least five innings in every start this year if not more. Well, and the other question whether his arm might fall off, which is only slightly more acute for him than it is for any generic pitcher. Despite the cramps issues mentioned above, in his last three starts he’s allowed zero runs while striking out 29.

As far as Brown goes, I’ve been excited with his outings since moving back to starting earlier this month, but we’ve been here before many times with Brownie. I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the ride, and probably a lot of strikeouts.

Wednesday: Kyle Harrison, LHP (10.07, 3.43, 4.07) vs Edward Cabrera, RHP (9.30, 3.47, 4.10), 6:40 PM CT

Harrison was a former top prospect with the Giants, who has bounced around to the Red Sox and now the Brewers after a meh year or so in SF. He’s found an extra gear with the Brewers, racheting up an already pretty good strikeout rate and giving up fewer taters. He seems to rack up pretty high pitch counts so often doesn’t work much past the fifth or sixth.

Cabrera has been kind of meh of late, though some of that I chalk up to him having to, much like the rest of the rotation, try to eat a bit more innings than the team would probably like given the state of the whole pitching staff. I’ve kind of felt like he’s been holding things back as a result. But we also knew after the trade that he was likely to be an inconsistent guy with a high ceiling so in that sense he’s still on track with my preseason priors.

Go Cubs. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.