Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (46-31) at St Louis Cardinals (42-36)

By
berselius
-
94

Some of the country (including Chicago) will get a brief midweek respite from the current heat wave, but “The Lou” (dying laughing) is not one of those places, with highs and humidity remaining in the 90s all week. Stay hydrated, yall.

I’ve been a broken record about how much I dislike the new ‘balanced’ schedule and how it reduces the number of divisional games, and I’m gonna keep on broken record-ing. It’s near the end of June and there still hasn’t been a Cubs-Cardinals series! What the fuck! All so we can get some extra Cubs-Mariners esque matchups? I still hate it with the power that AC hates Zaidman (dying laughing).

The Cards have been yoyo-ing around .500 for most of the year, but have managed to stay a few games over of late. They were recently riding a six game losing streak, but got right following a sweep of the White Sox and a series win over the Reds. Their starting pitching and offense has been about league average so far this year; their overall team defense (4th in baseball per fangraphs) is the only thing that particularly stands out. They’re just thoroughly kind of mid.

Team Leaders

Cubs

  • OBP: Tucker (.395)
  • ISO: PCA (.290)
  • HR: PCA (21)
  • R+RBI: PCA (117)
  • wRC+: Tucker (156)
  • BSR: PCA (4.4)
  • Defense: PCA (7.9)
  • Hitter WAR: PCA (3.9)
  • SP K/9: Brown (10.65)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (1.77)
  • SP ERA: Boyd (2.84)
  • RP K/9: Palencia (9.64)
  • RP BB/9: Keller (2.50)
  • RP ERA: Pomeranz (0.00)
  • P WAR: Boyd (1.6)

Urinals

  • OBP: Herrera (.392)
  • ISO: Herrera (.213)
  • HR: Arenado/Contreras (10)
  • R+RBI: Contreras (87)
  • wRC+: Herrera (159)
  • BSR: VSII (3.9)
  • Defense: Winn (9.8)
  • Hitter WAR: Donovan (2.1)
  • SP K/9: Gray (9.57)
  • SP BB/9: Liberatore (1.25)
  • SP ERA: Fedde (3.54)
  • RP K/9: Maton (11.97)
  • RP BB/9: Matz (1.62)
  • RP ERA: Maton (1.84)
  • P WAR: Gray (1.9)

Injury Updates

Ivan Herrera has been the Cardinals version of Carson Kelly on the year, as noted by all the stat leading above, but luckily he is out with a grade two hamstring strain and will miss this series. Top-ish pitching prospect Quinn Matthews has been out since mid April with shoulder soreness and has been scuffling in his minor league rehab. Aside from Jordan Walker coming off the IL a day or so ago, not much else is going on injury-wise.

For the Cubs, Shota is on track to make a start at some point this week, hooray! Porter Hodge is rehabbing his hip injury in Iowa and was blown up in his most recent outing, he’ll probably have a few more before returning. Miguel Amaya has resumed throwing and has been taking some ‘light BP’, whatever that means. Javier Assad has moved to doing bullpen sessions in oblique injury rehab take two. Matt Boyd had a minor shoulder bruise from that laser comebacker over the weekend.

Pitching Matchups

Mostly guessing here based on whose turn it is, most of the matchups have not been announced. K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP listed for all.

Monday: Ben Brown, RHP (10.65, 3.03, 5.57, 3.45) vs Matthew Liberatore, LHP (7.49, 1.25, 4.08, 3.05), 6:45 PM CT

LIberatore has been the Cards meh swingman for the past few seasons, but he’s taken a huge step forward as a full time starter this year. His numbers have cooled off a bit in June, hopefully that trend continues.

Tuesday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (6.96, 1.77, 3.84, 4.81) vs Erick Fedde, RHP (5.89, 3.86, 3.54, 4.05), 6:45 PM CT

I could have sworn that Fedde was a long time White Sox guy, but no, he pitched six replacement level seasons for the Nats before going over to the KBO for the 2023 season. I guess replacement level would have been too high for the White Sox, which is why they traded him to the Cardinals after signing him in 2024 (dying laughing). To be fair he looked like a new pitcher after his trip to Korea – he more than tripled his entire career’s production in 2024. He was blown up in several starts early in the year but has been cromulent since.

Wednesday: Shota Imanaga?, LHP (6.85, 2.82, 2.82, 4.53) vs Andre Pallante, RHP (6.34, 2.85, 4.48, 4.42), 6:45 PM CT

I’m guessing the Cubs give Boyd an extra day here and slot in Shota, though with the weather and his fly ball tendencies the Cubs might wait a few extra days until they’re in the climate controlled Astros park (whatever it’s called these days).

Pallante is another swingman-ish type who might want to return to swinging.

Thursday: Matthew Boyd?, LHP (8.30, 2.21, 2.84, 3.65) vs Sonny Gray, RHP (9.57, 1.81, 3.72, 3.19), 1:15 PM CT

It would be a real shame if the Cards TBD-ness in announcing starters is because they want to bump some guys back a day for extra rest. Just saying. Take care of your guys, Cardinals! Maybe call up some AAAA starter, or do a bullpen game this week.

Go Cubs. Or don’t I can’t tell you what to do. Unless that thing is extending Kyle Tucker. Do that.

94 COMMENTS

  12. To-day’s base ball squadron, posted from Nisei Lounge

    LF Happ
    RF Tucker
    DH Suzuki
    SS Swanson
    CF PCA
    C Kelly
    2B Hoerner
    1B Cornelius
    3B Shaw

    SP Brown

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  22. andcounting,

    Would be gratified…

    If I were considering the Cubs upcoming moves, I think…

    1. Brown optioned to Iowa, new reliever up (possibly Little?)
    2. Little optioned or Fulmer DFA when they activate Shota

    Basically get Ben down to work on a better pitch mix and avoiding the heart of the zone, and getting extra arms up to help out while they can

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  31. Randy wells my white whale

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #298

    “Wins By Decade”
    🟢🟡🟡🟢
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

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  36. 6 batters, 6 balls in play, and the lowest exit velocity is 98.5 mph (101.6 avg.). So of course they’re 0–6.

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  47. berselius,

    Realize it’s less of a factor with PCA, but if the zone is suddenly going to be the size of the stadium in addition to a lefty-lefty advantage I don’t hate it IF Tucker knows it’s coming and it’s at least a safety squeeze. As it played out it did suck though.

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  48. If Pete did it on his own I am not surprised Tucker didn’t anticipate and didn’t run, although he may have been gunned down anyway…was listening in the car and just shaking my head

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  58. To-day’s based ball squadron

    LF Happ
    RF Tucker
    DH Suzuki
    CF PCA
    SS Swanson
    1B Busch
    2B Hoerner
    3B Shaw
    C McGuire

    SP Boyd

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  71. Box score might make it look like PCA is struggling, but he really seems to just be wavering between getting too far under balls or too far on top of them. But his exit velocity is consistently high, even when the hits aren’t falling.

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  82. It would be a real shame if the Cards TBD-ness in announcing starters is because they want to bump some guys back a day for extra rest. Just saying. Take care of your guys, Cardinals! Maybe call up some AAAA starter, or do a bullpen game this week.

    Glad the cardinals took my advice

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