Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (30-20) at Cincinnati Reds (25-26)

In Series Previews by berselius98 Comments

Yay, more divisional baseball! (physically drags axe away from grindstone). The Cubs face the Reds for their first series of the year this weekend, and will turn around to host them at Wrigley next week. While the Cubs are in their stretch of relatively weaker opponents, the Reds are definitely one of the tougher customers. Despite playing half their games in a bandbox of a little league park, their offense ranks 23rd by wRC+, while their pitching has been surprisingly good, ranking 9th in baseball in ERA. I guess it hasn’t really warmed up enough yet. Or at least, Elly de la Cruz hasn’t, as he has a .242/.317/.404 line so far.

The Reds were predicted to be a sleeper breakout team last year but never really put it together, which led to David Bell being fired late in the season. They made a splash by hiring Terry Francona as their new manager, but didn’t do much else aside from bog-standard edge of roster deck chair shuffiling. They shipped off former ROY Jonathan India for SP Brady Singer, and picked up reclamation project/Dodger roster casualty Gavin Lux. I don’t remember this happening at the time, but scouting the spreadsheets they also made an odd decision to offer a QO to journeyman 34-yo swingman Nick Martinez, who started half a season for them last year. To pretty good results, but still.

Team Leaders

Cubs

  • OBP: Kelly (.417)
  • ISO: Kelly (.299)
  • HR: PCA/Suzuki/Tucker (12)
  • R+RBI: PCA (77)
  • wRC+: Kelly (179)
  • BSR: Tucker/PCA (3.2)
  • Defense: PCA (8.2)
  • Hitter WAR: PCA (2.9)
  • SP K/9: Brown (10.92)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (1.91)
  • SP FIP: Brown (3.52)
  • RP K/9: Pomeranz (9.58)
  • RP BB/9: Pomeranz (1.74)
  • RP FIP: Pomeranz (2.11)
  • Pitcher WAR: Brown/Boyd (0.8)

Reds

  • OBP: Gavin Lux (.377)
  • ISO: Austin Hays (.253)
  • HR: Elly de la Cruz (8)
  • R+RBI: Elly (55)
  • wRC+: Hays (146)
  • BSR: Elly (2.9)
  • Defense: Santiago Espinal (2.1)
  • Hitter WAR: TJ Friedl (1.0)
  • SP K/9: Hunter Greene (12.02)
  • SP BB/9: Nick Lodolo (1.53)
  • SP FIP: Greene (3.06)
  • RP K/9: Luis Mey (11.70)
  • RP BB/9: Brent Suter (1.83)
  • RP FIP: Mey (2.28)
  • Pitcher WAR: Nick Martinez (1.5)

Who isn’t available?

Sometime-closer Porter Hodge threw a bullpen earlier this week, and could be back in early June. Maybe the oblique/hip issue he had was minor and he’ll be out for the minimum? Luckily nothing has ever gone wrong when the Cubs suggested that might be the timetable. Shota could be back on a mound as soon as next week, then should have a few rehab starts before he can rejoin the big league team, so we’re still a few weeks away at best. Ryan Brasier sounds like he could be back any time now, while Tyson Miller is back on the IL after making eight rehab appearances.

For the Reds, Hunter Greene has been out with a groin strain, but will be activated to face the Cubs this series. Hopefully there’s some rust there, Greene is really good under normal circumstances. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been out since mid-April with back problems, and just started a rehab assignment in the Arizona complex league. Old pal Jeimer Candelario suffered a spine strain (yikes) at the end of April and is rehabbing in AZ. They’ve got a crowd of pitchers on long term IL with various elbow/shoulder issues but none of the names pop out to me.

Pitching Matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP listed for each pitcher

Friday: Matt Boyd, LHP (9.28, 2.28, 2.98, 3.84) vs Hunter Greene, RHP (12.02, 1.58, 2.36, 3.06), 5:40 PM CT

Saturday: Colin Rea, RHP (6.91, 2.38, 2.38, 3.58) vs Andrew Abbott, LHP (11.06, 3.86, 1.80, 3.11), 3:10 PM CT

Sunday: Ben Brown, RHP (11.27, 3.11, 5.44, 3.49) vs Nick Lolololo, LHP (7.52, 1.52, 3.22, 3.61), 12:40 PM CT

Share this Post

Comments

  8. dmick89

    When I checked back in for Cubs baseball you could have given me 6000 guesses and I’d never have guessed PCA was as good a ballplayer as I’ve seen this season.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  10. andcounting

    dmick89,

    Yeah, I think my highest expectations for this season were for him to have a plus offensive year for a CF. Twenty, 25 homers would have been an A+ season in my book. This is nuts.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  11. andcounting

    I mean, he just inched in front of Aaron Judge for 2nd in the majors in RBI. (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  12. Perkins

    Cubs probably should have offered PCA $100MM because a pre-FA contract looks like it’ll be at least $150MM.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  19. andcounting

    Did Pat Hughes die during the game? I went to listen to the radio highlights and they’re all Zach Zaidman screaming hoarsely into the abyss.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  20. Perkins

    dmick89:
    This team is fun to watch

    So far this is the most fun I’ve had watching the Cubs since 2016. Beyond being good, it helps that they have electric guys like PCA and Shota.

      Quote  Reply

    2

    0
  22. Author
    berselius

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #267

    🟡🟡🟡🟡⚫️
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  23. andcounting

    berselius,

    Yeah, this is a maddening pairing. I just can’t figure out why I’m hearing ZZ Bottom do play by play in three different innings.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  24. andcounting

    At some point someone needs to do an in depth dive on PCA’s plate coverage. I expect it to show up on fangraphs or something, but you can see it on gameday. That dude’s strike-zone heat chart is turning into a big block of red and pink. He pulled a 100mph borderline strike on the outside corner for a homer (from quite possibly the hardest pitcher in all of MLB to hit) for a homer. I’m guessing a more high-powered analysis will show his power zone extends well out of the strike zone.

    And that’s really cool on its own, but it’s also a titanic transformation. That dude had multiple giant holes in his swing, and they have been disappearing before our eyes.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  45. Perkins

    These are much easier when players don’t span multiple periods.

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #268

    “Outfield Lineage”
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  46. Author
    berselius

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #268

    “Outfield Lineage”
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

    Man Angel Pagan feels way more recent

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  51. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron versing south paw Lo(dying laughing)o

    LF Happ
    RF Tucker
    DH Suzuki
    C Kelly
    SS Swanson
    CF PCA
    2B Hoerner
    1B Cornelius
    3B Shaw

    SP Brown

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  66. Author
    berselius

    Some hair splitting here but looking back on his career numbers I am kind of surprised he didn’t have a quality backup job somewhere already.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  94. Perkins

    One (obvious) observation about this team versus last year is that the Hoyer/Hawkins method of assembling a bullpen from spare parts and lottery tickets has had a much longer runway because the offense is so potent.

    It’s unlikely, but I want to see them give Tucker all the money. A PCA extension would also be great, but I kind of doubt he’s into it at this point.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  96. Rice Cube

    If this score holds, Cubs will have the same record as Mets and Dodgers. Mets have tiebreaker over Cubs for now but are behind Phillies in the East, but Cubs have tiebreaker over Dodgers which means they would currently hold a bye 👀

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment